Anthony! Anthony!

[Sprowl]

Anthony Ranaudo had a good, bad and ugly start against the Yankees.
 
The good: he pitches around the plate most of the time, has reliable velocity on the fastball, and a lot of hop on his heat (92.5 avg, 94.5 peak velocity, and +10.5" vertical movement). He also displayed the bitingest true curve seen around these parts since Beckett went slurvy in 2010. His release point and movement look quite consistent to me, which suggests that he can control his excellent movement, and will eventually be able to command it. Ranaudo's average vertical break on 3 curveballs in the first inning: -8.5". His curve became more slurvy (ie, more horizontal and less vertical movement) as the game went on, but it's easy to see why the scouting reports identify Ranaudo's curve as a potential out pitch.
 

 
The bad: Ranaudo did not miss many bats: only 3 whiffs all game, 2 on the fastball and one on a curve. The changeup is purely a waste pitch at this point: all 4 went for balls. He couldn't always throw strikes when he needed to, walking Brent Gardner twice (Ranaudo is vulnerable to patient hitters) and walking the leadoff hitter three times. He's not afraid to throw strikes, which is good, but he's wild in the strike zone, which is bad, and some of his marinara has a lot of meatballs in it, which is downright ugly.
 
The ugly: Ranaudo grooved a lot of pitches just above the belt. The Yankees didn't make him pay for this cheesy lasagne, taking a lot of middle-middle fastballs for called strikes, but a better lineup will chow down on it:
 

 
Just in case the title wasn't too obvious, many of us grew up haunted by this:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlNAYCcxgUw

 

[WalletTrack]

Where do I go. Where do I go with my feelings. A third of a World Series championship.
Shipped out like eBay shopped jet skis.
Six decades of watching, never saw a group flush like that.

 

[mabrowndog]

Shit, didn't see this thread started while I was putting a post together in his Adopt-A-Prospect thread, so I'll just cross-post some of the relevant stuff (courtesy of Jnai's superb PITCHf/x tool at BrooksBaseball.net):
 
Ranaudo threw 91 pitches over 6 innings, 53 for strikes. The most notable events (other than the Jeter K and Beltran's solo HR) were probably the first-batter walks he issued to lead off the 1st, 2nd and 6th innings. Those happened to be the frames with his highest pitch counts (18, 18 and 22 respectively). All four of his walks on the night were to LHH (Beltran, Ellsbury, and Gardner twice).
 
His first-pitch location didn't help, as he was consistently leaving his initial offerings to Yankee LHH up.
 

 
 
And that was regardless of pitch type:
 

 
 
In terms of pitch mix, he relied heavily on the 4-seamer (68 in all, 75% of his work). He added 16 curves (18%), 4 changeups (4%) and a few 2-seamers (3%). He threw the fastball 91-95 mph through the first 3 innings, but was pretty much 90-93 from the 4th on.
 

 
 
Here's the Beltran HR in the 4th (catcher's view). The money shot came on a 90.5-mph fastball on the outer third of the plate near the top of the strike zone. The next one of those Carlos misses will be the first.
 

 
 
And here's the three-pitch strikeout of Jeter. All fastballs and all pretty much perfectly located on the outside edge, with the swing-and-miss on the 2nd pitch in the upper-outside corner.
 

 
 
I mean, holy shit.
 

 

[chrisfont9]

I'd be curious to see plots by inning. I thought he was staying out of the middle for the first few innings, and seemed to slowly, slightly lose command. Which is to be expected in one's first major league start, at home against the Yankees.
 
Wonder when his next start will come. He's headed back to Pawtucket when Kelly shows up.

 

[mabrowndog]

I'd be curious to see plots by inning.

 
Jnai's site will do that for you. Dropdown menu on the left.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I mean, holy shit.
 

 
That pose should be his statue outside the Bidet

 

[edoug]

His mother's reaction was great. It was like, He struck out his first batter, Oh no it's Derek. Oh screw him my boy got is first strike out.
 
All the while I was trying to develop the power of 
telekinesis because if they weren't going to shut up Moore, I would

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

It's nice to see him get the win, but I agree that he honestly wasn't all that impressive.  Command has been an issue for him all season and he really does need a third pitch.

 

[mfried]

It's nice to see him get the win, but I agree that he honestly wasn't all that impressive.  Command has been an issue for him all season and he really does need a third pitch.

The Yankees' lineup is not so strong. A guy with medium command and a fastball running 90-94 (mostly 92), and no other controllable pitches beat them.  

 

[jscola85]

The BABIP gods also seemed to be in Ranaudo's favor last night.  Got a line drive double play and there were a few other well-hit balls that found a glove before the grass.  That said, I agree that his stuff looked like it belonged in the majors, he's just not ready in terms of command or control.

 

[RetractableRoof]

I also watched the game.  I was extremely disappointed that he didn't through a perfect game or a no-hitter.  If the kid wants a permanent slot in the rotation that is the only acceptable result.  He needs to live up to expectations dammit.  The fact that he was a bit wild high (and out of the strike zone) against professional hitters is unacceptable - even in his major league debut.  The fact that this was a team that is a shadow of itself means a no-hitter should have been easily achievable - hell my grandmother could no hit the Yankees.
 
Or maybe I just saw a kid who was obviously nervous and a bit amped up and missed his locations a bit.  And when he missed he didn't miss into the middle of the plate Wasdin style, he generally missed off the plate.  Of the few he did miss over the plate, one was deposited into the bullpen.  I also saw an umpire squeezing pitchers for both sides and a kid who adapted reasonably well to it.  I didn't see much swing and miss which is concerning, but I also don't think that is his game.
 
I saw a kid who was looking for his parents in the stands when he came out of the game.  I saw a kid who was being a kid.  It was fun to watch for me.  I'm glad he won, and hope he gets a few more major league starts in the near future.  I don't have unrealistic expectations for every kid that comes up.  If the Sox were in a pennant race, the margin for error is slim - but I've made a point of resetting my calibration for these young pitchers to understanding that they are going to get chances to pitch in major league games to allow them to get acclimated without expecting dominance.  The team just cleared four fifths of its starting rotation and one of its reliable bullpen arms.  This is audition time (even if the manager wants to say that it isn't development time).  I expect to see growing pains, learning mistakes.  And if I do see an occasional gem, I'm not going to let that set the expectation bar to impossible levels for young kids.  Clay Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second start and expectations went through the ceiling - to the point that a good portion of this board wants him gone because he hasn't maintained that level of dominance (or consistency to be fair).  He was 12-1 to start the season last year and by the end of the year some people wanted him thrown over board.
 
As a dad some of my most wonderful memories are those that occurred because I looked at situations from the perspective of my kids.  Looked into their eyes as they saw their first snowfall, their first carousel, their first TBall at bats, etc.  Life is incredibly cool with those glasses on.
 
These are young kids that are going to be handling a large volume of the innings for the remainder of the year.  I'm choosing to see the games from their perspective rather than put them under the microscope and dismissing their readiness after 90 pitches of their first start.
 
tl;dr: Enjoy the games from a baseball perspective and watch the ride of these young kids instead of ONLY viewing them from a spreadsheet / pitchFX dataset.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Anthony Ranaudo had a good, bad and ugly start against the Yankees.
 
 
Just in case the title wasn't too obvious, many of us grew up haunted by this:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlNAYCcxgUw

Is Prince spaghetti still sold in stores? I don't recall ever seeing it in California.

 

[iayork]

The Yankees' lineup is not so strong. A guy with medium command and a fastball running 90-94 (mostly 92), and no other controllable pitches beat them.  

I thought his command wasn't bad.  Here's his pitches to RHH:

Not many there, but that's pretty sweet.
 
I thought that in the early innings especially he was not getting any help from the umpire.  He seemed to be throwing a lot of pitches right on the black and getting them called balls.  But I don't know, looking at the LHH chart I think I see a bunch of very close, but just outside/inside, that were called balls, probably correctly.   (With the more dense pitch charts, I honestly can't distinguish the colors on the charts to see which are balls, which are in play, etc.  Is there a way to show only balls vs. everything else in two strongly contrasting colors?)  Anyway, here the LHH chart for people with better eyes than me:
 

 
His big issue was balls way up out of the zone, which I'd put down to adrenaline on his first start.  
 
Overall, he did pretty well.  The Yankees are a mediocre team, but they're more or less league-average for batting, so it's not like he was facing little leaguers out there.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Farrell's post-game summary covers it nicely:
 

"You know, I thought he did a good job keeping the game under control," said Farrell. "There were a number of innings where the leadoff hitter would get on base and [he] found a way to navigate through three walks to lead some innings off. I thought he threw the ball downhill well and kept the ball out of the middle of the plate for the most part."
 

 
Browne on Red

 

[chrisfont9]

 
Jnai's site will do that for you. Dropdown menu on the left.

cool thanks. My theory disproven.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Is Prince spaghetti still sold in stores? I don't recall ever seeing it in California.

 
Definitely in my cupboard

 

[chrisfont9]

Is Prince spaghetti still sold in stores? I don't recall ever seeing it in California.

It is. I looked it up. They got bought out by Ronzoni though

 

[Sprowl]

Anthony is a high fastball pitcher (99 pitches, 75 fastballs), and when he misses, he grooves the fastball just above the belt. So far that hasn't hurt him, because mediocre offensive teams like the Yankees, Reds and Rays haven't been able to make him pay, but he's giving up flyballs at a 50% rate (GB/FB = .6), and that is a recipe for lots of home runs. The flyballs have not been cheap either: infield popups have been only 7% of total flyballs.
 

 
On the bright side, he showed excellent stamina, maintaining a 93 mph average on the fastball through six innings, and he throws strikes -- the opponents will have to beat him, because he doesn't beat himself the way Webster and Kelly have in a few starts. He continues to throw a hard-breaking curve as his primary offspeed pitch, usually in take counts, along with five changeups to LHB and three sliders to RHB.
 

 

[iayork]

Watching the game, it seemed like Ranaudo was not getting the call on a bunch of strikes, but the strike zone maps say that Basner called a remarkably consistent zone for both sides; there's nothing at all that's a bad call, and only two or three that are even marginal.  It's worth noting because there's been some criticism over Basner's zone lately.  
 
 

\

 

 

[benhogan]

Anthony is a high fastball pitcher (99 pitches, 75 fastballs), and when he misses, he grooves the fastball just above the belt. So far that hasn't hurt him, because mediocre offensive teams like the Yankees, Reds and Rays haven't been able to make him pay, but he's giving up flyballs at a 50% rate (GB/FB = .6), and that is a recipe for lots of home runs. The flyballs have not been cheap either: infield popups have been only 7% of total flyball
 

Did his pitch mix change from previous games (due to being staked an early 8-0 lead)?  Would that lead to more fastballs being thrown?

 

[EricFeczko]

Anthony Ranaudo had a good, bad and ugly start against the Yankees.
 
The good: he pitches around the plate most of the time, has reliable velocity on the fastball, and a lot of hop on his heat (92.5 avg, 94.5 peak velocity, and +10.5" vertical movement).
...
The bad: Ranaudo did not miss many bats: only 3 whiffs all game, 2 on the fastball and one on a curve.
 

This is the part that continues to baffle me. Like with RLDR, how does such a great fastball have trouble missing bats?
Is this because of a lack of secondary pitches? Bartolo Colon in his heyday was able to miss bats with only a fastball. In the steroid era no less.
Is this just the result of a lack of command (i.e. poor command leads to shoddy sequencing which enables hitters to guess location more effectively)?
Or is it a combination of multiple factors? I'd love for someone knowledgeable to elaborate on this.

 

[SoxLegacy]

Just saw that Ranaudo was sent to down to the GCL. Does that make any sense? Why not back to the Paw Sox?

 

[67WasBest]

Maybe they want him to throw to Castillo?

 

[Rasputin]

Just saw that Ranaudo was sent to down to the GCL. Does that make any sense? Why not back to the Paw Sox?

 
 

Maybe they want him to throw to Castillo?

 
I'm assuming it's a paper move and they didn't want to bump someone from Pawtucket's roster just so they could activate Bogaerts two days before the rosters expand.

 

[SoxLegacy]

That makes sense. Thanks, Ras.

 

[67WasBest]

MaBrownDog had it
 

 
Since the Drive have already been eliminated from postseason contention in the South Atlantic League, their season ends Monday. This allows the Sox to recall Ranaudo once rosters expand without the usual 10-day wait (or an injury). Their higher-level affiliates (PawSox, Sea Dogs, SalemSox) are all either playoff-bound or still in the hunt. It's also likely a paper move, so I suspect he'll either remain with the team in Tampa or fly back north to work out with Pawtucket and root them on as they look to clinch a playoff berth at McCoy.

 

[Rasputin]

Farrell also said that they'd have had to expose that infielder they called up whose name I already forget to waivers if they wantedd to send him down and they didn't think that made sense right before the roster expansion.

 

[Sprowl]

Did his pitch mix change from previous games (due to being staked an early 8-0 lead)?  Would that lead to more fastballs being thrown?

Not really -- in Ranaudo's three starts he has thrown between 75% and 78% fastballs. In the other two starts the games were closer, yet he's still throwing 3/4 fastballs. There might be some difference in whether or not he nibbles less with a big lead, but I don't think his command is precise enough yet to make a clear decision between nibbling and pounding the strike zone.
 

This is the part that continues to baffle me. Like with RLDR, how does such a great fastball have trouble missing bats?
Is this because of a lack of secondary pitches? Bartolo Colon in his heyday was able to miss bats with only a fastball. In the steroid era no less.
Is this just the result of a lack of command (i.e. poor command leads to shoddy sequencing which enables hitters to guess location more effectively)?
Or is it a combination of multiple factors? I'd love for someone knowledgeable to elaborate on this.

Fastballs aren't usually swing-and-miss pitches -- whiffs most often come on secondary pitches (the changeup to the opposite-handed batter and the slider to the same-handed batter). There are a few exceptions: Papelbon, for example, used to get lots of swinging strikes on his fastball.

So far Ranaudo doesn't have that secondary out pitch.

 

[Shore Thing]

Well after the first 5 starts of his MLB career, it hasn't been pretty
 
 [tablegrid=  ]Season Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR  2014 Red Sox 3 2 0 5 5 26.2 3.38 4.05 2.7 0.239 83.90% 31.20% 16.70% 5.4 7.62 5.98 -0.5  [/tablegrid]
 
 
Hugely disappointing given his success in AAA.  Straight fastball and poor command displayed to date.  At this stage, I would prefer to see his starts given to Matt Barnes to see what we might have in him.
 
Edited: fixed table

 

[LostinNJ]

Five starts. Less than 30 innings. Nobody expects him to be a #1 or #2. He can still help at the back end of a rotation, or in the bullpen. Let's not toss him to the wolves just yet.

 

[Drek717]

Well after the first 5 starts of his MLB career, it hasn't been pretty
 
Hugely disappointing given his success in AAA.  Straight fastball and poor command displayed to date.  At this stage, I would prefer to see his starts given to Matt Barnes to see what we might have in him.
 
Edited: fixed table

He turned 25 yesterday, has had all of 5 starts, and last night was the first time he didn't go at least 5 innings, with two of the previous being deemed quality starts and the other two a 6 inning, 4 ER game and a 5.1 inning, 3 ER game.
 
His K/9 has gone from 7.2 in AAA to 3.4 in MLB, his HR/9 from 0.6 to 2.7.  I wouldn't expect either of those current rate stats to be predictive for him over a more meaningful sample.
 
Also, he barely got a taste of AAA to end 2013, 2014 has been his first real exposure to that level and now he's getting his first taste of MLB.  He has good natural stuff and if nothing else profiles as an excellent relief pitcher.  Barnes has pretty much all the same concerns as Ranaudo and has been less consistent in AAA all season.

 

[Plympton91]

He turned 25 yesterday, has had all of 5 starts, and last night was the first time he didn't go at least 5 innings, with two of the previous being deemed quality starts and the other two a 6 inning, 4 ER game and a 5.1 inning, 3 ER game.
 
His K/9 has gone from 7.2 in AAA to 3.4 in MLB, his HR/9 from 0.6 to 2.7.  I wouldn't expect either of those current rate stats to be predictive for him over a more meaningful sample.
 
Also, he barely got a taste of AAA to end 2013, 2014 has been his first real exposure to that level and now he's getting his first taste of MLB.  He has good natural stuff and if nothing else profiles as an excellent relief pitcher.  Barnes has pretty much all the same concerns as Ranaudo and has been less consistent in AAA all season.

I just look at posts like this and shake my head. He's got a mediocre fastball and mediocre command. There's no there there. Other teams are trotting out multiple guys from their bullpens throwing 96, 97 mph. The Red Sox keep showing me guys who have to overthrow to get into the 90s. The entire Pawtucket staff seems like a group of 6th starters; frankly the one that most intrigues me at this point is Wright. Hopefully they can trade a bunch of them to a noncontender looking cheap 5th starters and get some other team to find out that they're just Brian Rose without the NE pedigree.

 

[HillysLastWalk]

+1 P91.  The guy just doesn't get swings and misses.  Even the "good" starts were because the BABIP Gods were kind.

 

[TomRicardo]

I just look at posts like this and shake my head. He's got a mediocre fastball and mediocre command. There's no there there. Other teams are trotting out multiple guys from their bullpens throwing 96, 97 mph. The Red Sox keep showing me guys who have to overthrow to get into the 90s. The entire Pawtucket staff seems like a group of 6th starters; frankly the one that most intrigues me at this point is Wright. Hopefully they can trade a bunch of them to a noncontender looking cheap 5th starters and get some other team to find out that they're just Brian Rose without the NE pedigree.

 
I just look at posts like this and shake my head. This poster has got a mediocre baseball acumen and mediocre logic.  Wright over Owens?
 
Ranuado's problem is not as much his fastball as his lack of secondary pitches.  If he cannot effectively throw his slider and change up hitters can sit on his fastball.  His curve is the only secondary pitch he can throw effectively at the moment and even that he loses command of.
 
I am not sure what bullpens you are talking about that trot out multiple arms throwing 97. 96.  Only three relievers in baseball have an average fastball over 97 MPH (Chapman, Giles, and Capps).  There are only 19 relivers with 10 IP or more that have averaged 96 mph or over.  Of those guys only 14 have ERA under 4.00.
 
Only the Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Reds have multiple men who can throw that hard.

 

[drtooth]

How much of what we are seeing is that he may be getting close to his innings limit?  He threw 127 innings in 2011, 37.2 in 2012, 140 in 2013 and 164.2 this year.  Just throwing it out there as possibility as to what we are seeing from him in Boston.

 

[joe dokes]

How much of what we are seeing is that he may be getting close to his innings limit?  He threw 127 innings in 2011, 37.2 in 2012, 140 in 2013 and 164.2 this year.  Just throwing it out there as possibility as to what we are seeing from him in Boston.

 
could be. But OTOH, if you predict non-success for everyone, you're more likely to be right since most minor leaguers don't turn into successful major leaguers.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I just look at posts like this and shake my head. He's got a mediocre fastball and mediocre command. There's no there there. Other teams are trotting out multiple guys from their bullpens throwing 96, 97 mph. The Red Sox keep showing me guys who have to overthrow to get into the 90s. The entire Pawtucket staff seems like a group of 6th starters; frankly the one that most intrigues me at this point is Wright. Hopefully they can trade a bunch of them to a noncontender looking cheap 5th starters and get some other team to find out that they're just Brian Rose without the NE pedigree.

 
How about you dance with the girl you brought?
 
This is exactly what happens when you trade away all your Frank Montases, your Roman Mendezes, and your Hunter Stricklands in an effort to contend every year.
 
When you trade away all your A-ball prospects who can throw high-90s to acquire "proven veterans," why should you bemoan the lack of homegrown guys able to throw in the high-90s?

 

[Plympton91]

Just to be clear, when I talk about "the AAA starters" I'm not talking about Owens, I'm talking about the guys who started the year at Pawtucket, not who ended it there. Owens, Escobar, and Rodriguez all seem to have better stuff than Workman (as a starter, his plays up in relief), better command than Webster, and better command and stuff than Ranaudo, despite being 2 to 4 years younger.

 

[nvalvo]

How much of what we are seeing is that he may be getting close to his innings limit?  He threw 127 innings in 2011, 37.2 in 2012, 140 in 2013 and 164.2 this year.  Just throwing it out there as possibility as to what we are seeing from him in Boston.

 
There might be something to this, but even in the first half of the AAA season, his K/9 was only a shade higher than his season numbers. And his walk rate was worse.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

How many "6th starter" types are able to put up a sub-3.00 ERA in their first ~170  innings at triple A at age 23/24?
 
I don't see much in the way of major league upside, unless his stuff improves with a move to the pen, but his minor league track record suggests he's more than a fringe major leaguer.  Sure, he's basically sucked in this callup but it's only 30 innings at the end of a long season.

 

[Sprowl]

How many "6th starter" types are able to put up a sub-3.00 ERA in their first ~170  innings at triple A at age 23/24?
 
I don't see much in the way of major league upside, unless his stuff improves with a move to the pen, but his minor league track record suggests he's more than a fringe major leaguer.  Sure, he's basically sucked in this callup but it's only 30 innings at the end of a long season.

 
On the bright side, Ranaudo might still develop a third pitch (which he needs desperately). He's 6'7, and tall pitchers often take longer to master their stuff, but end up delivering unhittable movement (the Randy Johnson fantasy). He's got decent velocity and a good curve, and his name is Anthony. That's all I got.