Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

NickEsasky

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So Anthony Davis is a toddler who has someone put out his clothes. Also he wasn't sure if mom or dad picked them out today? Yeah he's gonna chase LeBron and be a Laker.
 

Red Averages

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So Anthony Davis is a toddler who has someone put out his clothes. Also he wasn't sure if mom or dad picked them out today? Yeah he's gonna chase LeBron and be a Laker.
All that from 2 quotes from a 3rd party source? Glad we aren't quick to place judgement.
 

Red Averages

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Third party source? There's a video posted of Davis saying exactly that.
Ok. Fair enough. It was a video - I only read the quotes. My apologies. Clearly I am in the wrong here. Please judge me accordingly for saying something so foolish.
 

nighthob

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So Anthony Davis is a toddler who has someone put out his clothes. Also he wasn't sure if mom or dad picked them out today? Yeah he's gonna chase LeBron and be a Laker.
I mean the guy's wearing a Looney Tunes shirt for his exit while LeBron's rebooting the Space Jam franchise. I don't see how it gets any more obvious.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Nothing new, of course, but Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated was on Bill Simmons’ podcast on Wednesday, mainly to talk about Magic’s resignation, and as they were discussing targets for the Lakers this offseason, they got around to Davis, and Mannix reiterated that if Kyrie signs with the Celtics long term this offseason, Ainge is convinced that’s enough for Davis to want to stay long term and will do what it takes to make that trade happen (didn’t go into what exactly it would take, at least not the parts I’ve been able to listen too yet), regardless of the noises Davis, Klutch, or Davis’ dad make about not re-signing in Boston. Also said there’s a lot of contact between Ainge and Kyrie, so Ainge presumably has a good sense of the Kyrie aspect of this, too.
 

nattysez

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These tweets are informative from a Pelicans perspective in terms of what they're looking for:


I guess if you think Tatum is never going to develop on a team with Kyrie, then moving him makes sense. But the idea of tearing the heart out of the team by trading Smart and then also shipping Tatum away with him is pretty hard for me to swallow.

I'll add that I follow the Pelicans pretty closely, and even if the Celts were sure he'd re-sign, Davis's fragility really worries me. I'm just not sure you can rely on him to be healthy come playoff time.

Anyway, I'm sure this is nothing that hasn't been said 100x already in the thread, but I thought seeing all three potential trade offers together was helpful.
 

NomarsFool

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How do they handle future draft picks with regards to salaries? They must count in the equation somehow. Do they just use an average value (since you don't know what slot they will be in)?
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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Should we talk about whether they can make this trade without including Smart (or Hayward)? The Celtics can only take on 125% +$100k of the salary they ship out for AD. Let's assume the picks stay at slot, so the Grizzlies pick doesn't convey and the Cs get the Kings pick @ 14, Clips @ 20, and their own @ 22. They could then make picks for the Pelicans, sign them, and include those players in the trade after 30 days.

Assuming we signed all the picks at 120% of their rookie scale, here's what a trade without Smart looks like (I sourced the 2019-2020 base salary for each player from Spotrac - linked for each player - and the 2019-2020 rookie scale salaries from RealGM):

Celtics Receive: Anthony Davis ($27,093,019)

Pelicans Receive:
Total: $22,913,000

Even this amount is (just) short of what's needed to complete a trade (21,549,680 * 1.25 = 26,937,100, and 26,937,100 + 100,000 = 27,037,100, about $56k short), so you'd need to include a signed 2nd round pick. (Not true anymore - I updated the numbers above to include the correct rookie scale of 2019-2020)

This will sap depth and several roster spots to fill, but that's a manageable problem when you're adding AD. The bigger problems are likely (1) you're going to blow past the tax with four maxes (it would help a bit if Horford opts out and extends below max, but that's still going to be a freakishly expensive team, and quick), and (2) this would likely require NOP to eat some dead money to deal with the roster crunch of an 7 (!) for 1 trade.

The nice thing for #2 is that much of that dead money should extend past next season - Semi's 2019-2020 deal will become fully guaranteed on 7/1/19, but the following year is fully non-guaranteed if he's cut/waived. Yabu and RW's subsequent years are all club options, so the only dead $$ beyond 2018-19 would come if they decide to cut one of the three first round picks.

I think the biggest problem is likely #1, and I can't speak to ownership's willingness to pay a huge tax bill. I'd really prefer to keep Smart, but including Hayward and Tatum (plus losing Morris) really saps the team of wing depth, though they could try to replenish it by holding on to some of this year's draft picks and/or using the MLE.

Edit: Updated to include the correct rookie scale (2019-2020 instead of 2018-2019)
 
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Wilco's Last Fan

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How do they handle future draft picks with regards to salaries? They must count in the equation somehow. Do they just use an average value (since you don't know what slot they will be in)?
Draft pick salaries are counted as $0 for salary-matching purposes until the player signs. See CBA FAQ, Question 89. They do count holds for salary cap purposes, but they don't count as salaries to use in trades.

Edit: Once the draftee signs, the team has to wait 30 days before it can trade the player (this happened with Wiggins in the Love trade with Cleveland).
 

HowBoutDemSox

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In terms of salary matching, would the Memphis pick conveying at 9 this year make any difference in terms of who we can avoid sending to New Orleans (assuming they still do the deal including the player picked 9th in lieu of the future pick had it not conveyed this year)?
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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In terms of salary matching, would the Memphis pick conveying at 9 this year make any difference in terms of who we can avoid sending to New Orleans (assuming they still do the deal including the player picked 9th in lieu of the future pick had it not conveyed this year)?
Yes, it would create an additional salary of up to $4.46m (120% of the 2019-2020 rookie scale slot for the #9 pick of $3,719,500), with the same restriction that they'd have to sign the drafted player and wait 30 days before making the trade official. (Of course, there's the well-discussed competing consideration that the #9 pick may have comparably lower value to NOP than a future pick).

Edit: Updated to reflect 2019-2020 rookie scale.
 
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RedOctober3829

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Is there any chance David Griffin doesn't decide to trade AD and tries to sign him long term? At his PC today, he talked about his great relationship with Klutch Sports and how he's going to sit down with AD and discuss what his vision is etc.
 

NoXInNixon

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Is there any chance David Griffin doesn't decide to trade AD and tries to sign him long term? At his PC today, he talked about his great relationship with Klutch Sports and how he's going to sit down with AD and discuss what his vision is etc.
Zero point zero one percent.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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Don't forget, the C's have Bird Rights on Jonny Gibson and can package him up in any AD deal for additional salary ballast.
Excellent point! I'm curious how Gibson's deal would be calculated for trading purposes. Per CBA FAQ, for a "minimum-salary player with more than two years in the league and playing on a one-year contract, the minimum salary for a two-year player is used" when calculating salary for trading purposes.

Gibson will be entering his third season and will be an RFA; would his salary for trading purposes be the QO ($1,890,752) or the minimum salary for a two-year player who signs a deal during the 2019-2020 season ($1,618,486)?

Not a huge difference, but I'm struggling to understand this (plus, every cent matters).

Edit: I think he would only count as having two years of service, since "[a] player is credited with a year of service for each season in which he is on a team's active list or inactive list for at least one day during the regular season." (CBAFAQ, #22).

New question: Does he need to consent to a trade since he's an RFA?
 
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amfox1

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The Celtics must ship out $21.60mm or more to take back AD (125% +$100k of the salary they ship out for AD)

If they get #9,

Tatum - $7.83mm
Signed #9 - $4.46mm (assuming max 120% of slot)
Signed #14 - $3.45mm (assuming max 120% of slot)
Yabusele - $3.12mm

gets to $18.86mm, or $2.74mm short of where they need to be. None of signed #20 ($2.58mm), signed #22 ($2.38mm), Ojeleye ($1.62mm) or Williams ($1.94mm), by themselves, will get to that level.

Pick #18, however, would be sufficient. For example, BOS could trade 20 and 22 to BRK for 17 and 27. Then, BOS could trade Tatum, Yabu and picks 9, 14 and 17 (30 days after they sign) to NO for AD.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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If Memphis doesn't convey, the Celtics need the $4.46m to match salaries, and the Pelicans are OK with an AD deal that includes #9 (i.e. they don't insist on a future Memphis pick), I wonder if Memphis and Boston could work out a deal to convey this year's #8 (or #7) to Boston in exchange for a release of their claim to the Grizzlies' future pick.
 

amfox1

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Resulting roster:

Irving - $32.70mm (assumes re-signed at max)
Hayward - $32.70mm
Davis - $27.09mm
Horford - $20.00mm (assumes re-signed/extended @ 3yr/$60mm)
Smart - $12.55mm
Brown - $6.53mm
Baynes - $5.45mm (assumes opt-in)
Williams - $1.94mm
Ojeleye - $1.62mm (assumes not cut before 7/1)
pick #27 - $1.97mm (assumes max 120% of slot
incomplete roster charge (2) - $1.79mm

Total - $144.34mm (this is above the luxury tax threshold of $132.00mm and the luxury tax apron of $138.00mm)

C - Davis, Baynes, Williams
PF - Horford, Ojeleye
SF - Hayward
G - Irving, Smart, Brown
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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Man, that's an expensive 10 players. Does that leave with you with no MLE (since using the taxpayer midlevel hard caps you at the apron, I assume going over the apron means you can't use the t-MLE?)

Edit: NVM, I got that wrong - You only get the t-MLE if you're above the apron. You're hardcapped at the apron if you (1) use the Bi-Annual exception, (2) receive a player in a S&T, or (3) use the non-taxpayer MLE to sign a player to a contract larger than allowed by the t-MLE.

You still get a MLE if you're over the apron, it's just the smaller taxpayer midlevel (~$5+mill instead of ~8+mill).
 

amfox1

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Man, that's an expensive 10 players. Does that leave with you with no MLE (since using the taxpayer midlevel hard caps you at the apron, I assume going over the apron means you can't use the t-MLE?)
Yep. The top four, by themselves, put BOS over the cap. Also, not a lot of depth there, so any injury to one of the top four really hurts. And Brown clearly leaves after next year, because he won't be paid (which is why it might make sense to include him in any NO trade, both for the salary and the ability to retain a high draft pick).

If Memphis doesn't convey, the Celtics need the $4.46m to match salaries, and the Pelicans are OK with an AD deal that includes #9 (i.e. they don't insist on a future Memphis pick), I wonder if Memphis and Boston could work out a deal to convey this year's #8 (or #7) to Boston in exchange for a release of their claim to the Grizzlies' future pick.
It's certainly possible, but the NO-BOS trade would have to be worked out before the draft and the MEM-BOS arrangement would also have to be worked out before MEM would otherwise pick (since MEM would then be picking for BOS who would be picking for NO). Moving from 9 to 8 only gets you about $400k of salary ballast. But that might be enough to trade 22 to NO, instead of trading with BRK to get 17.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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Yep. The top four, by themselves, put BOS over the cap. Also, not a lot of depth there, so any injury to one of the top four really hurts. And Brown clearly leaves after next year, because he won't be paid (which is why it might make sense to include him in any NO trade, both for the salary and the ability to retain a high draft pick).
Interesting point. Tatum + Brown likely blows away any other package (it even holds a candle to Knox/Zion).

It's certainly possible, but the NO-BOS trade would have to be worked out before the draft and the MEM-BOS arrangement would also have to be worked out before MEM would otherwise pick (since MEM would then be picking for BOS who would be picking for NO). Moving from 9 to 8 only gets you about $400k of salary ballast. But that might be enough to trade 22 to NO, instead of trading with BRK to get 17.
We wouldn't be moving from #9 to #8, right? We'd be moving to #8 from nothing, since we wouldn't get #9 - so we'd get $4.86m of salary ballast. (Maybe I'm misunderstanding).

Edit: I think I see what you're saying - #8 doesn't change the calculus too much on your analysis above because it's only $400k more than #8.
 

nighthob

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Is there any chance David Griffin doesn't decide to trade AD and tries to sign him long term? At his PC today, he talked about his great relationship with Klutch Sports and how he's going to sit down with AD and discuss what his vision is etc.
If he wants to maintain that great relationship with LeBron Sports he'll trade Davis to LA. ;)
 

amarshal2

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I think in a situation where AD is acquired you don't extend Horford and save that money for Brown. Horford turns 33 in June while Brown turns 23 in late October.
 

nighthob

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If you’re acquiring Davis you’re almost certainly letting Horford go, and probably trying to work it as a sign & trade for a phantom #2 so that you can roll it into a Davis deal for salary ballast.
 

mcpickl

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I think in a situation where AD is acquired you don't extend Horford and save that money for Brown. Horford turns 33 in June while Brown turns 23 in late October.
If you're acquiring AD, in this scenario I assume you've at least traded Tatum. You're not building for the future. You're trying to win right now. Horford is a much better player than Brown right now. Not that either Horford or Brown would have to go, but if one did it would be Brown.
 

vicirus

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Here’s another scenario: If KD does genuinely want to play with Kyrie (and he re-signs), what are the chances GS would trade him to Boston if he tells them he’ll otherwise go to NY with no return? Would an opted in Horford or Hayward plus a pick be enough? Would it have to be the Memphis pick or maybe the Clippers pick? Would GS see either of those guys as assets?

I think that’s really the second shoe to drop after getting Davis. Ainge and Kyrie will push hard for that. The salaries get high, but Brown gets a portion of Hayward/Horford’s contract in a year, and the player that isn’t traded takes an extension at lower dollars or is allowed to walk.
 

nighthob

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According to the Warrior fans they won’t accept anything less than Tatum, Brown, Horford, and the Memphis pick for Durant. I expect that the realistic price is going to be Hayward and a draft pick. Assuming that Kyrie decides that he wants to stay here and and Durant is OK with Boston over whatever team they’d discussed teaming up on previously.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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According to the Warrior fans they won’t accept anything less than Tatum, Brown, Horford, and the Memphis pick for Durant. I expect that the realistic price is going to be Hayward and a draft pick. Assuming that Kyrie decides that he wants to stay here and and Durant is OK with Boston over whatever team they’d discussed teaming up on previously.
SRN is the only true Warrior fan and he never said this. I said I would be surprised to see Golden State to do the S&T for just Hayward and a pick. Myers knows Hayward may still be good again but also knows he isn't yet close to the player he once was and may never be. I can't see them taking on a max contract for two years for a guy who may be the equivalent of a mid-level rotation player but you never know.

However, nobody here said the Warriors wouldn't take any less than Tatum, Brown, Horford and tne Memphis pick for Durant. I never said as much either.
 

nighthob

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It won’t be a sign & trade, it will be a “I’ll pick up my option if you trade me to Boston” thing. However I’ve long said that I expect Irving and Durant to form their super team elsewhere.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It won’t be a sign & trade, it will be a “I’ll pick up my option if you trade me to Boston” thing. However I’ve long said that I expect Irving and Durant to form their super team elsewhere.
We have covered this. You are correct - its effectively the same thing though. Regardless, as you note, the chances of Durant trying to go to Boston are fairly low. I don't believe that Irving is going to leave though and I am not as sold on Durant pulling the trigger as others like Simmons etc
 

TripleOT

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What about using FAs Morris and/or Rozier as trade ballast? As I understand it, 50% of their new salary can be used for salary matching purposes. Is that right? Can it be a two year deal, or even an 1 and 1 as a player option?
 

amfox1

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What about using FAs Morris and/or Rozier as trade ballast? As I understand it, 50% of their new salary can be used for salary matching purposes. Is that right? Can it be a two year deal, or even an 1 and 1 as a player option?
It has to work for the player, too. Why would Rozier, in particular, want to go to NO and play with Jrue Holiday? I think Morris will want to play with his brother, if possible, and PHI would be a preferable 2nd option.
 

TripleOT

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It has to work for the player, too. Why would Rozier, in particular, want to go to NO and play with Jrue Holiday? I think Morris will want to play with his brother, if possible, and PHI would be a preferable 2nd option.
N.O. had their most successful season in years with a PG, Rondo, playing with Holiday.
 

mcpickl

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We have covered this. You are correct - its effectively the same thing though. Regardless, as you note, the chances of Durant trying to go to Boston are fairly low. I don't believe that Irving is going to leave though and I am not as sold on Durant pulling the trigger as others like Simmons etc
It would be yet another season of KD taking a paycut though. His option year is for 31.5M. He can sign for a max starting around 38M assuming cap comes in around the 109M expected. He's left quite a bit of money on the table the past few years, he could be done with that.

What about using FAs Morris and/or Rozier as trade ballast? As I understand it, 50% of their new salary can be used for salary matching purposes. Is that right? Can it be a two year deal, or even an 1 and 1 as a player option?
Has to be at least three years with no player options in the first three years. Only first year has to be guaranteed, but any non-guaranteed years would be at the teams discretion.
 

TripleOT

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Come on man...that squad had AD. This one wouldn't. That's a rather large point you're omitting.
They had AD for four other seasons that weren't as successful as the one with Rondo as PG and Holiday as off guard. The point I'm trying to make is they can succeed with another PG starting in the back court, and if signing Rozier for three years is what it's going to take to get their hands on Tatum, pairing him with Holiday shouldn't be seen as a big negative.

As far as the squad not having AD, of course it won't if they're trading him to Boston. Are you saying the only way Holiday can play effectively with a PG is if Davis is on the team?
 

amarshal2

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If you're acquiring AD, in this scenario I assume you've at least traded Tatum. You're not building for the future. You're trying to win right now. Horford is a much better player than Brown right now. Not that either Horford or Brown would have to go, but if one did it would be Brown.
For how long? Anthony Davis is 26. Kyrie Irving is 27. Marcus Smart is 25. Old Man Hayward is...29. We're talking about 33-35 year old Horford + some years of cap space they can't really use vs. 23-28+ Jaylen Brown. This isn't about building for the future, it's about maximizing talent over the next 5 years when most of the roster is in its prime.
 
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benhogan

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For how long? Anthony Davis is 26. Kyrie Irving is 27. Marcus Smart is 25. Old Man Hayward is...29. We're talking about 33-35 year old Horford + some years of cap space they can't really use vs. 23-28+ Jaylen Brown. This isn't about building for the future, it's about maximizing talent over the next 5 years when most of the roster is in its prime.
How happy or efficient will Jaylen be as the 4th banana on a Kyrie/AD/Hayward led team? Smart fits perfectly and so does a 33-35yr old Al Horford. While I like Brown and his potential, it took a while for him to embrace his role this season. IMO Jaylen is looking to lead a team and would struggle to get the deal he'd like playing an ancillary role on the Celtics.

I think the team learned this season that having the right mix of players is important to winning. And sticking talented players into roles they bristle at doesn't help him or the team. If they sign Kyrie, deal Tatum for AD, it wouldn't shock me to see Danny also deal Jaylen Brown this summer
I'm sure I'll get pushback from all the Brown lovers around here, but Danny will be in GFIN mode and will have his BIG3. He'll be looking to have the right role players around them for the next 3 seasons.
 
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InstaFace

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I'm still holding out hope that with a good playoff run for Brown, we can convince Danny Ferry that Brown + all of our other best assets aside from Smart and Tatum > Tatum + jack shit other than some face-saving picks.

The play out of MBA negotiating class is to make multiple simultaneous offers. Put two packages on the table, one themed around Tatum the other around Brown, and say "we value these equally, if you prefer one over the other then that's a win for you and let's do it".
 

DJnVa

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As far as the squad not having AD, of course it won't if they're trading him to Boston. Are you saying the only way Holiday can play effectively with a PG is if Davis is on the team?
No. I'm saying the evidence is inconclusive that they can replicate that success (with 2 PGs) when AD is not on team. They might, but just because they did it with an All-NBA player once, doesn't mean they can do it without that guy.

However, if it gets AD to Boston, I'd love to see them give it a shot. :)
 

mcpickl

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For how long? Anthony Davis is 26. Kyrie Irving is 27. Marcus Smart is 25. Old Man Hayward is...29. We're talking about 33-35 year old Horford + some years of cap space they can't really use vs. 23-28+ Jaylen Brown. This isn't about building for the future, it's about maximizing talent over the next 5 years when most of the roster is in its prime.
And if we're talking which guy is more likely to help you win a title in that next five years, the answer for me is Al Horford. I know everyone is obsessed with age, but what are the chances Jaylen Brown at any point in the next five years becomes as valuable a player as Horford is currently. I think it's real small.

And again, you don't have to choose one or the other. You don't trade for AD and sign Kyrie, then dump your third best player to save on a tax bill. If they make that trade, they know they'll be paying a fat tax bill. At best you get to save around the edges, maybe cheaper bench players. You don't skimp on your core players.
 

vicirus

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According to the Warrior fans they won’t accept anything less than Tatum, Brown, Horford, and the Memphis pick for Durant. I expect that the realistic price is going to be Hayward and a draft pick. Assuming that Kyrie decides that he wants to stay here and and Durant is OK with Boston over whatever team they’d discussed teaming up on previously.
Agreed, and that’s why those people are fans and not GMs. From GS’ perspective, how else are they going to improve if Durant just walks? A return to form by Hayward is probably a risk worth taking especially on just a 1+1 left after this year. An opted in Horford might even be preferable since they could re-sign him at lower money and give Draymond whatever they need to. It would all come down to whether they’re OK with making Boston into a “super team” and would want to placate Durant. Considering they’re in different conferences, I’d wager they would.

Brown is a restricted FA, so they can wait and see just like they did with Smart. I don’t see him getting the max, but maybe there’s a desperate team out there. He’d anchor the bench just like he has been, and I don’t see him having any issues accepting his role/fitting in so long as Morris is off the team.
 

kazuneko

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I guess if you think Tatum is never going to develop on a team with Kyrie, then moving him makes sense. But the idea of tearing the heart out of the team by trading Smart and then also shipping Tatum away with him is pretty hard for me to swallow.
Heyward is the player that needs to go and if you give up the Kings and Grizzlies picks plus Tatum (and take back Moore or, more reluctantly, Hill) I'm not sure how they can say no. Sure you give up on Gordon and he might end up returning to what he once was with Utah, but you free up salary, get to keep Smart and end up with Anthony Davis. I'm completely on board with a Davis, Horford, Brown, Smart and Irving starting five.