Are NFL Teams Taking More QBs Higher?

[SMU_Sox]

I mentioned this in a different thread but I wanted to take a look at if NFL teams are taking more QBs in round 1, in the top 5, in the top 10, and fewer QBs on day 2 since 2017. Why 2017? Anecdotally I felt like that is when there was a shift.

You can look at the work here. It's my G-Sheet.

I compared 2017-2024 to 2007-2016. I also compared 2017-2023 to 2007-2016 because I anticipated some of you would think 2024 skews the numbers.

Here is my summary table:


What we see is that the NFL is taking more QBs in round 1 than before and fewer QBs on day 2. We also can observe that there are more top 5 and top 10 QBs taken recently.

Why is this? I think it is multiple factors. As NFL offenses have shifted to a blend of pro-college styles it is easier to integrate rookie QBs. As offense becomes more important QBs do as well. Not that they weren't important before but this is not the day of running the ball and defense. I think out of structure QBs are having more success now than they did before which has fostered in a new class of QBs who might have been shunned 15 years ago. NFL teams are more analytically driven and it is a good economic decision to draft a QB high if you think there is a 20% chance they can be an average starter. (I think Barnwell said that somewhere).
Round 1 QBs are hitting at slightly higher rates too. We used to think of them as 33% or so hit rates but lately that has gotten closer to 50%. A large reason for that is because it is easier to integrate these guys.

One last note: from 2020-2024 we have seen 3 QBs in the top 6 picks 4/5 times! We didn't see that at all minus almost in 2018 but not once in 2007-2016. The times are a changing indeed!

 

[SMU_Sox]

Let's look at hits too.

This is arbitrary but:

2017: 2/3: Trubs miss, Mahomes and Watson hits
2018: 2/5 Allen and Lamar hits, Baker, Darnold, and Rosen not
2019: 1/3: Kyler yes, Jones no, and one KIA.
2020: 4/4: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, and Love
2021: 1/5 Lawrence and the rest missed
2022: 0/1 Pickett busted
2023: inc. but Stroud hit.
2024: inc.
overall: 10/21.
If you think Baker is a hit: 11/21.


I will do 2007-2016 soon and edit this.

2007: 0/2 JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn are misses.
2008: 2/2 Matt Ryan and Flacco are hits. Fuck Flacco.
2009: 1/3 Stafford is a hit, Sanchez and Freeman are not.
2010: 0/2 Bradford and Tebow are misses. shoutout to the Bradford going to change the Eagles offense GOAT post.
2011: 1/4 Cam Newton is a smash hit. Locker, Ponder, and Gabbert are misses.
2012: 2/4 Luck and Tannehill are hits but Weeden and RG3 are misses.
2013: 0/1 EJ Manuel didn't work out
2014: 0/3 This is tough. Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel. Manziel is an obvious miss. Bortles got a 2nd contract but was never a good QB! He had 1-2 ok years. Bridgewater had a long career and somehow made the pro bowl in a season with 14 TDs and 9 INTs but got traded in year 4. His injury was tragic but he was always a limited physically guy and never had a standout season.
2015: 0/2 Winston and Mariota are not hits. I debated going 1/2 here. Winston gave them 5 years of average to probably below average QB play.
2016: 1/2 This is another tough one. Wentz had 2-3 good years with the Eagles but the rest of his career was awful. The Eagles gave him a big deal but regretted it. Goff had a bunch of good years with the Rams and has had 2 good ones with the Lions.
Overall: 7/25 Not great! If you think Winston and Wentz and Bortles are hits then 10/25. I don't. Also, you might not consider Tannehill a hit.

 

[RG33]

Let's look at hits too.

This is arbitrary but:

2017: 2/3: Trubs miss, Mahomes and Watson hits
2018: 2/5 Allen and Lamar hits, Baker, Darnold, and Rosen not
2019: 1/3: Kyler yes, Jones no, and one KIA.
2020: 4/4: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, and Love
2021: 1/5 Lawrence and the rest missed
2022: 0/1 Pickett busted
2023: inc. but Stroud hit.
2024: inc.
overall: 10/21.

I will do 2007-2016 soon and edit this.

Thanks for doing this, interesting stuff.

My only argument here would be Baker Mayfield — is he not considered a “hit” at this point, or are you just looking through the lens of the original drafting team?

 

[Sandwich Pick]

I mentioned this in a different thread but I wanted to take a look at if NFL teams are taking more QBs in round 1, in the top 5, in the top 10, and fewer QBs on day 2 since 2017. Why 2017? Anecdotally I felt like that is when there was a shift.

You can look at the work here. It's my G-Sheet.

I compared 2017-2024 to 2007-2016. I also compared 2017-2023 to 2007-2016 because I anticipated some of you would think 2024 skews the numbers.

Here is my summary table:
View attachment 82284

What we see is that the NFL is taking more QBs in round 1 than before and fewer QBs on day 2. We also can observe that there are more top 5 and top 10 QBs taken recently.

Why is this? I think it is multiple factors. As NFL offenses have shifted to a blend of pro-college styles it is easier to integrate rookie QBs. As offense becomes more important QBs do as well. Not that they weren't important before but this is not the day of running the ball and defense. I think out of structure QBs are having more success now than they did before which has fostered in a new class of QBs who might have been shunned 15 years ago. NFL teams are more analytically driven and it is a good economic decision to draft a QB high if you think there is a 20% chance they can be an average starter. (I think Barnwell said that somewhere).
Round 1 QBs are hitting at slightly higher rates too. We used to think of them as 33% or so hit rates but lately that has gotten closer to 50%. A large reason for that is because it is easier to integrate these guys.

One last note: from 2020-2024 we have seen 3 QBs in the top 6 picks 4/5 times! We didn't see that at all minus almost in 2018 but not once in 2007-2016. The times are a changing indeed!

Also, 2017 is the year after both the Rams and the Eagles paid out the nose to move up to 1 and 2, respectively. Starting a trend, perhaps?

 

[johnmd20]

Thanks for doing this, interesting stuff.

My only argument here would be Baker Mayfield — is he not considered a “hit” at this point, or are you just looking through the lens of the original drafting team?

Yeah, Baker is not a miss by any reasonable analysis. He broke the rookie record for TD passes and has won playoff games with two different teams and was like 2 plays away from beating KC in 2020 and 1 play away from beating Detroit this year.

Watson has 1 playoff win. Kyler has 0. Baker is definitely not close to a miss.

 

[Dogman]

He did say it was arbitrary but I completely agree, I do not think Baker is a miss especially given the inclusion of Watson and Murray on the hit list.

 

[8slim]

Great data. Seems like it represents the growing (if not full grown) consensus among league GMs that you can't win championships with merely adequate QB play. I also suspect it reflects the new hierarchy of positions -- meaning QB, LT, DL and CB -- and that a team should invest first day draft capital in them.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Baker was traded by his original drafted team and is now finding success on his 4th team in 6 years. I debated whether or not he is a hit but decided that he washed out in Cleveland (the team that drafted him) and was pretty dreadful in 2022 so he is a miss. If he can sustain his success I would reconsider it even if it was not for the team who drafted him. But he hasn't been able to stack 2 good years back to back in his entire career. If you consider him a hit then it raises it to 11/21.

I also debated using 2016 as a starting point. I went with 2017 because Watson and Mahomes are both new-age kind of QBs whereas Goff is not. Wentz was though... so maybe I should? Not entirely sure. Paxton Lynch went 26th then. Not sure he makes it out of the top 10 if it happens today. That was my thinking. Then again Lamar would go 1,2 had the draft been today... (granted he would only go 1,2 now because we saw how much he can succeed!).

 

[SMU_Sox]

Yeah, Baker is not a miss by any reasonable analysis. He broke the rookie record for TD passes and has won playoff games with two different teams and was like 2 plays away from beating KC in 2020 and 1 play away from beating Detroit this year.

Watson has 1 playoff win. Kyler has 0. Baker is definitely not close to a miss.

I take some issue with this because you can reasonably use second contracts with drafting teams as a way to evaluate success (I personally don't like that method but others have). And if you use that method he is not a hit. By using this language it seems like any disagreements with your POV are unreasonable and I find that to be... unreasonable. I think your POV that Baker is a hit is reasonable. I am on the fence with it but lean against it.

Look at his career with Cleveland. He was up and down. There is a reason they felt like they had to move on from him. They drafted him 1,1 and wanted to move on from him after year 4. He then sucked for both Carolina and the Rams in 2022. But yes he did rebound in 2023 and nicely too.

He was good in Cleveland in 2018 and 2020. He was pretty bad in 2019 and 2021. Consistency is huge for a QB.

 

[cshea]

When did the 5th year option become a thing? It was somewhere around 2017-ish, no?

The most valuable thing in the NFL is a quarterback so teams were always going to take early swings on the position. They were only incentivized even more when the 5th year option became a thing becaause the only thing more valuable than a franchise quarterback is a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract. And by picking one in the first rounds, teams would get an extra year of control.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

If we're talking second contract being a measure of hit or miss, that would make Daniel Jones a hit. It's not good methodology.

 

[NoXInNixon]

I take some issue with this because you can reasonably use second contracts with drafting teams as a way to evaluate success (I personally don't like that method but others have). And if you use that method he is not a hit. By using this language it seems like any disagreements with your POV are unreasonable and I find that to be... unreasonable. I think your POV that Baker is a hit is reasonable. I am on the fence with it but lean against it.

Look at his career with Cleveland. He was up and down. There is a reason they felt like they had to move on from him. They drafted him 1,1 and wanted to move on from him after year 4. He then sucked for both Carolina and the Rams in 2022. But yes he did rebound in 2023 and nicely too.

He was good in Cleveland in 2018 and 2020. He was pretty bad in 2019 and 2021. Consistency is huge for a QB.

I have often wondered how much of the success rate for highly drafted QBs is a result of landing in a good organization. There was a ton of debate about Bledsoe vs. Ryan Leaf. The Pats picked Bledsoe and he went on to have a perfectly above average NFL career, while Leaf did not. But I wonder if, in some parallel universe where the Pats drafted Leaf and Bledsoe went to the garbage Seahawks, if Leaf would have succeeded and Bledsoe would have been a bust.

There's really no way to know for sure, I suppose.

 

[SMU_Sox]

When did the 5th year option become a thing? It was somewhere around 2017-ish, no?

The most valuable thing in the NFL is a quarterback so teams were always going to take early swings on the position. They were only incentivized even more when the 5th year option became a thing becaause the only thing more valuable than a franchise quarterback is a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract. And by picking one in the first rounds, teams would get an extra year of control.

This stopped being a value in the last CBA deal - 5th year options for QBs and other positions plummeted. But there was a period of time during the old CBA where it was a value.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@NoXInNixon landing spot is huge. You could also argue perhaps we have better coaching and infrastructure in the NFL now. You can even see this with QBs like Goff with McVay vs his rookie year. Same for Lawrence with HC DP vs Meyer. Same for Mac with Josh McDaniels in year 1 and a good OL vs Mac year 2 and 3. Mahomes got paired with Andy Reid, a perfect pairing.

 

[Sandwich Pick]

I have often wondered how much of the success rate for highly drafted QBs is a result of landing in a good organization. There was a ton of debate about Bledsoe vs. Ryan Leaf. The Pats picked Bledsoe and he went on to have a perfectly above average NFL career, while Leaf did not. But I wonder if, in some parallel universe where the Pats drafted Leaf and Bledsoe went to the garbage Seahawks, if Leaf would have succeeded and Bledsoe would have been a bust.

There's really no way to know for sure, I suppose.

Are you thinking of Rick Mirer?

 

[Darnell's Son]

Are you thinking of Rick Mirer?

Yeah, Leaf was picked in the Peyton draft.

 

[NoXInNixon]

Are you thinking of Rick Mirer?

Yes. Duh. Ryan Leaf was the guy some people thought should have been drafted above Peyton Manning.

 

[SMU_Sox]

By the way I updated the 2007-2016 hit rates.

I have the differences as the hit rate for round 1 from 2007-2016 as 7/25 vs 10/21 for 2017-2024. But I had trouble with some of the QBs in the earlier class. I could see the hit rate as high as 10/25 for 2007-2016 and 11/21 for 2017-2024. Still, one is better than the other!

 

[SMU_Sox]

If we're talking second contract being a measure of hit or miss, that would make Daniel Jones a hit. It's not good methodology.

The Drafting Stage folks used it for their research. It's commonly accepted methodology because there isn't a perfect way to measure hits vs misses and this gets close to it. You will always have some bad results with it though. I don't use it but I don't think it is bad methodology. I think the issue is that there isn't good methodology.

Do you have a better suggestion? I just went with my own subjective view of things.

Quick edit: Just to be clear - I really mean it. I am all ears. No snark here!

 

[dynomite]

Let's look at hits too.

This is arbitrary but:

2017: 2/3: Trubs miss, Mahomes and Watson hits
2018: 2/5 Allen and Lamar hits, Baker, Darnold, and Rosen not
2019: 1/3: Kyler yes, Jones no, and one KIA.
2020: 4/4: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, and Love
2021: 1/5 Lawrence and the rest missed
2022: 0/1 Pickett busted
2023: inc. but Stroud hit.
2024: inc.
overall: 10/21.

I will do 2007-2016 soon and edit this.

Great work. Thank you!

I have to say, a roughly 50% hit rate (10.5/21 giving Baker a .5) makes me more encouraged about Maye's prospects. Especially since Mac Jones is one of the misses already. Keep taking shots, it seems likely one of them will hit.

Not that they weren't important before but this is not the day of running the ball and defense.

Right. And this is also an incredible era of young QB talent in the AFC. I made this point in a pre-draft thread, but look at what the Patriots have to contend with for the foreseeable future in the AFC:

- Patrick Mahomes, 28
- Desean Watson, 28
- Josh Allen, 27
- Joe Burrow, 27
- Lamar Jackson, 27
- Tua T., 26
- Justin Herbert, 26
- Trevor Lawrence, 24
- CJ Stroud, 22
- Anthony Richardson, 21

I don't see how the Patriots (or anyone) can expect to beat all these guys consistently without having a star QB leading a solid offense of their own.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@dynomite That is fucking depressing... and also awesome at the same time. It is awesome as a draft evaluator to see your guys hit! It is not so awesome as a Patriots fan to see all your guys hit in the AFC.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

The Drafting Stage folks used it for their research. It's commonly accepted methodology because there isn't a perfect way to measure hits vs misses and this gets close to it. You will always have some bad results with it though. I don't use it but I don't think it is bad methodology. I think the issue is that there isn't good methodology.

Do you have a better suggestion? I just went with my own subjective view of things.

Totally fair. I'm not a fan of it because it's pretty flawed reasoning. You're right in stating that there isn't a black and white measure to quantify hit vs miss though. There are so many variables and it's mostly subjective. I think you have a pretty firm grasp on the relative hits other than Baker. I'm in agreement with others that he should be considered a hit. Cleveland did him no favors and might be better off had they kept him over Watson. My statement was more well if Bakers not a hit because Cleveland passed on him, why is Danny Dimes not a hit because the Giants paid him? Either way your point is valid. The hit rates on QBs in the 1st since 2017 have been about a 50/50 shot. Those are pretty good odds considering it was less than half that previously. This is getting me pumped for Maye.

 

[Sandwich Pick]

The Drafting Stage folks used it for their research. It's commonly accepted methodology because there isn't a perfect way to measure hits vs misses and this gets close to it. You will always have some bad results with it though. I don't use it but I don't think it is bad methodology. I think the issue is that there isn't good methodology.

Do you have a better suggestion? I just went with my own subjective view of things.

Great compilation of data. Thank you for this. It's a very thought-provoking topic.

I remember Andy Reid at one point stated his philosophy on QBs is simply "If you like a guy, you make it a point to get him." Given Andy's track record of getting the most out of every QB he has ever had (at various points in the draft, through trades/FA), you get the sense that he knows when, where and how to get them.

I feel like a lot of teams are in a position where they suck, have a high pick, and the QB available is better than what they currently have, but don't have a ceiling much higher than that. They don't really "like" these guys the way Andy does so much as "We need a QB and one is available" combined with a heavy dose of FOMO that comes with passing on a 1st round QB.

 

[dynomite]

@dynomite That is fucking depressing... and also awesome at the same time. It is awesome as a draft evaluator to see your guys hit! It is not so awesome as a Patriots fan to see all your guys hit in the AFC.

Totally! It's both depressing as a Pats fan and awesome as an NFL fan to realize how many incredible QB talents we get to watch in the AFC alone every Sunday these days. And that's not even considering Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, who aren't what they used to be but are obviously both former Super Bowl winning QBs.

Anyway, this is why I'm so excited about closing the book on Mac Jones and taking another spin of the roulette wheel in this year's draft. He wasn't the guy, and until we find our guy things will remain pretty bleak for a while.

 

[johnmd20]

I take some issue with this because you can reasonably use second contracts with drafting teams as a way to evaluate success (I personally don't like that method but others have). And if you use that method he is not a hit. By using this language it seems like any disagreements with your POV are unreasonable and I find that to be... unreasonable. I think your POV that Baker is a hit is reasonable. I am on the fence with it but lean against it.

Look at his career with Cleveland. He was up and down. There is a reason they felt like they had to move on from him. They drafted him 1,1 and wanted to move on from him after year 4. He then sucked for both Carolina and the Rams in 2022. But yes he did rebound in 2023 and nicely too.

He was good in Cleveland in 2018 and 2020. He was pretty bad in 2019 and 2021. Consistency is huge for a QB.

Baker's won two playoff games, including one with the Browns that was their first playoff win in almost 3 decades. That is the same number as Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Tua, Kyler, and Herbert combined. I know wins don't tell the entire story, but they are a couple of chapters of the story, especially if we're talking playoff wins.

Baker's 2021 was a disaster because he had multiple injuries, including a torn labrum and a messed up hip/leg. He should NOT have been playing in the 2nd half of the season. He was not good with the Panthers in 2022, which means nothing because the Panthers are a joke where careers go to die. And he was not bad with the Rams, in the few games he played. And he was awesome last year, taking a team left for dead to division title and a playoff win. Those are successes.

So he's been a success in the NFL, he hasn't been a bust. To be clear, he's been solid, not spectacular. Zach Wilson or Mac Jones or Josh Rosen or Trey Lance are actual busts. Guys who haven't done anything in the NFL and have looked embarrassing while playing. Baker has had success and he's had failures. But he's not embarrassing.

And Cleveland not picking up Baker's 5th year option and trading the world for a rapist on a ridiculous contract was a truly awful decision. So I can't knock Baker for the Browns not understanding that injuries could hamper a player's performance. The Browns are stupid.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Those are fair points. I don't think he is a bust. But I don't think he is necessarily a success. The other thing I would point to is he was a UFA in 2022 and he signed a 1 year $4mm offer with the Bucs. That tells me that the league didn't think that highly of him. This year he did well and got a middle class QB contract. Let's see if he can have 2 good years in a row. Most of the film guys I followed were anti-Baker so that helps color it for me the other way. I do hold injuries against them - if you get injured and perform poorly or miss time that isn't your fault but you either worked out or you didn't.

If we consider him a success that's an even higher rate, 11/21. At the end of this year we should know more about Baker in year 2 there + hopefully a full year of Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young has a better situation. We could be looking at, hopefully, 13 or 14/24! (yes I am rooting for everyone to succeed!)

 

[SMU_Sox]

Also, on a less controversial note, Arif agreed to hop on for a Q&A. I will work with Dogman to get this setup and we should be in business soon.

 

[pokey_reese]

I love the work put in here so far in terms of tracking the draft history of the position, but I think that as long as there is no clear definition of what makes a 'success' or a 'bust' the exercise is pretty pointless. We are trying to pretend this is some kind of quant analysis while also not doing any actual quant work.

Let's think this through and assign some actual points here! How do we quantify success for a drafted QB?

• NFL games started - easiest one, if you suck, you probably don't last that long, but has some bias due to quality of the team before your arrival (especially at the QB position), and expectations of the fans/ownership
• playoff games won - I like this less, due to high variance, and bias from the rest of the team/division/coaching, but a more complex method could give bonus points for it or something
• QBR, or some other advanced metric - would need to be adjusted for games started, as it is a rate stat

For anything counting games, we should probably exclude the rookie season, because if you are starting a true rookie, it just means that you have shit for QB options on the existing roster, right?

 

[SMU_Sox]

Yeah, that is fair Pokey. I 100% agree with you that if we can make it a quant exercise we should. Maybe EPA? AV? WAR? NY/A? Second contract value?