Arsenal 2013-2014: Insufferable & Unsuccessful -- And Worse than Chelsea
- Thread starter sachmoney
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The FA Cup final is the day before my birthday. It could be great, it could be calamitous. While I'm happy City lost, the whole "the FA Cup is ours" talk that I've seen makes me very uncomfortable. Yeah, Arsenal is the favorite, but that's such a weird thing nowadays.
Nothing against City's loyal fanbase, but I'm almost as happy that City lost - and that oil money won't be buying yet another English trophy - as I am that Arsenal's road to the Cup became significantly easier on paper. Should Arsenal fail to win the trophy, that would be much more embarrassing than a loss to City and would feed any trolls who actually believe Wenger is a specialist in failure...but as a fan of football more generally, I would at least be able to appreciate the amazing story which would result from Hull, Sheff Utd or Wigan winning. So I'm pleased by yesterday's result in and of itself.
DLew On Roids said:
Which equates to an estimated 66% chance of winning the Cup and a 33% chance of losing it. That seems about right.
Wigan have been the second best team in the Championship since Rosler took over and have now beaten Palace, Cardiff, and City in the FA Cup. They're a Premier League quality side on current form that has been here before and Hull (assuming they make the final) are a solid midtable team. Its as good of a run-in for the Cup as anybody could ask for so I'm definitely not complaining. But teams of this quality can beat anybody on the right day, as City learned.
Who is taking this as a done deal? Do they support Arsenal?
I mean, I am much more nervous about this than I was about the Red Sox in 2004. I knew they were winning the World Series once they beat the Yankees - I am shitting myself about this run in. There's no doubt Wigan can beat us and Hull have been an annoyance in the past too (I'm assuming they get past Sheffield United...and if we fuck up to a League 1 team the players should commit hara-kiri on the pitch).
I mean, I am much more nervous about this than I was about the Red Sox in 2004. I knew they were winning the World Series once they beat the Yankees - I am shitting myself about this run in. There's no doubt Wigan can beat us and Hull have been an annoyance in the past too (I'm assuming they get past Sheffield United...and if we fuck up to a League 1 team the players should commit hara-kiri on the pitch).
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
This year, Arsenal won 18 out of 28 premier league games. It also drew another 5 games. So Arsenal won 66% of premier league games. The 5 draws equal 18% of Arsenal's games. Let's say that if they were cup games, they go to penalties and Arsenal wins half or 9%.
So, let's say that on a cup draw, Arsenal would be favorite to go through 75% against the average Premier League Opponent. However, the average Premier League opponent includes teams like Chelsea, City, Liverpool and United with which Arsenal is definitely not favored by 75%. OTOH, her remaining opponents are championship teams which on average should be worse than the bottom feeders of the premier league.
So actually, you would expect for Arsenal to be anywhere from 80 to 90% favored to beat each one. Let's say 85%.
So 0.85x0.85=0.72. So it looks to me that 72% shot of winning the title.
I would take the over and tbh, I started this post thinking that the under was more accurate.
0-0 at halftime, still down 2-0 on aggregate.
I like how we're playing. We're defending extremely well as a team and the Ox has been awesome, creating a couple chances out of thin air. Obviously we're still down 2-0 on aggregate but I think this is a pretty reasonable approach - stay disciplined, try to steal a goal somewhere, and then throw everybody forward in the last 20-30 minutes.
Ramsey was the revelation of the first half of the season, but Ox in the last few months is approaching the same territory for me. He is really putting it all together not just in terms of direct attacking play but also in terms of composure on the ball.
Get this squad a real world class striker over the summer and I'll be very excited to see what a front five of that guy, Ox and Theo wide, Ozil in the hole, and Ramsey in the box to box role can do next year.
I like how we're playing. We're defending extremely well as a team and the Ox has been awesome, creating a couple chances out of thin air. Obviously we're still down 2-0 on aggregate but I think this is a pretty reasonable approach - stay disciplined, try to steal a goal somewhere, and then throw everybody forward in the last 20-30 minutes.
Ramsey was the revelation of the first half of the season, but Ox in the last few months is approaching the same territory for me. He is really putting it all together not just in terms of direct attacking play but also in terms of composure on the ball.
Get this squad a real world class striker over the summer and I'll be very excited to see what a front five of that guy, Ox and Theo wide, Ozil in the hole, and Ramsey in the box to box role can do next year.
I dunno dude. Arsenal seem to be giving the ball away a fair bit. Ox seems the best outlet, he made a good run to get the free-kick. Mertesacker's booking was plain dumb. Bayern don't have to score and they look most likely to. I'd like to see some decent possession from Anrsenal. Ozil needs to get his arse in gear too. Right now I'd give Arsenal a 10% chance of going through.
fletcherpost said:
I don't disagree with anything here although 10% may be too generous to Arsenal. I just think this has been a decent showing and a reasonable strategy, better than throwing everything forward from the beginning and almost certainly getting curbstomped. I'm not really expecting to advance but am happy that we're keeping it interesting. Bayern is just too tough.
Aye no doubt it could be a lot worse. But I expect Arsenal to pass the ball well and have a little more composure. And i'd love to see more from Ozil.
A little life.
I don't understand Wenger's choices here. Taking off Ozil for Rosicky. And the only attacker we have on the bench is Gnabry now?
I don't understand Wenger's choices here. Taking off Ozil for Rosicky. And the only attacker we have on the bench is Gnabry now?
Meh. Was hoping for a miracle but wasn't expecting anything different. As long as Ox isn't hurt, I'm basically happy to move on and concentrate on the league and the cup.
This tie was lost in the first leg. Getting a result away to Bayern helped kick-start the domestic run-in last year...maybe it can happen again?
Heck of a penalty/double save by Fabianski, by the way.
Heck of a penalty/double save by Fabianski, by the way.
Ozil is apparently out "for weeks" with a hamstring injury. Fuck me. That's only the Spurs, Chelsea, City, Everton run.
Win the FA cup, finish no worse than 4th, build for next year.
Win the FA cup, finish no worse than 4th, build for next year.
Nicklas Bendtner "dropped his pants and rubbed himself on my taxi."
My favorite soccer headline of the week so far.
My favorite soccer headline of the week so far.
Ozil confirmed to be out at least four weeks.
As said previously, its all about winning the FA Cup and finishing in the Top 4 at this point. I'm fine with that and I think its very doable.
As said previously, its all about winning the FA Cup and finishing in the Top 4 at this point. I'm fine with that and I think its very doable.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Two trophies in one season? Ambitious! (Says the fan of a club that will never win another trophy, ever).
Fun game, last 10 minutes were nerve wracking. Giroud absolutely is becoming a problem. Next Saturday's game against Chelsea is an absolutely monster of a game.
*If* Arsenal can win at the Bridge next weekend, anything is possible. That's a huge "if", though.
It's also worth pointing out that with Spurs and Man Utd both losing today, Arsenal would have to mess up pretty badly to not finish in the top four.
IMO, yes, especially given our injuries. Breaking the trophy draught would be huge.sachmoney said:
Winning the FA Cup and making the Top *Three* - and avoiding Champions League qualifying in the autumn - would be a very successful season in my eyes. Finishing in fourth would be treading water, even if the trophy drought ends.
Massive match. Sucks to be going into this stretch minus Theo, Ozil, Ramsey, and Wilshere but let's put up a fight and see what happens.
Brilliant diving save by the Ox!
Kieran Gibbs??? Have fun working League One next week, Andre Marriner.
Kieran Gibbs??? Have fun working League One next week, Andre Marriner.
That would involve the FA actually punishing someone for being shit at their job. Which we all know is not something that happens.DLew On Roids said:
Speaking of not being punished for being shit at their job, they might as well announce that Arsene 3 year extension at halftime now.
You people all look the same
You all look the saaaaaaaaaame
My name is Andre
And you all look the same
You all look the saaaaaaaaaame
My name is Andre
And you all look the same
All in for the FA Cup now. Get healthy for Wembley, everyone except Theo.
And of course, that Champions League spot/fifth trophy.
And of course, that Champions League spot/fifth trophy.
The performance of this squad away against top competition really raises some serious fucking questions.
As SC said, just win the FA Cup. We shouldn't have a problem limping to the 4th place finish line in the league.
As SC said, just win the FA Cup. We shouldn't have a problem limping to the 4th place finish line in the league.
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