Baby It's Cold Outside: The January Window

[Vinho Tinto]

Even on my honeymoon, I can't escape the January rumors. My team will finally sell Enzo Perez to Valencia and once again loan Nelson Oliveira out (Swansea). There's talk of bringing back Markovic on a loan. Also, Koke to Chelsea and Podolski to Inter?

Let's post rumors and news here.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Early leader for dumbest rumor of the window: Arsenal to sign Sergio Ramos.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Also it looks like Wenger might have finally found his ideal defensive midfielder....a 16-year-old Polish kid.

 

[Luis Taint]

Early leader for dumbest rumor of the window: Arsenal to sign anyone
 

Fixed

 

[Schnerres]

http://www.goal.com/en/news/15/germany/2014/12/23/7337062/kampl-dortmund-move-is-a-dream-come-true
 
Borussia Dortmund buys german-born Kevin Kampl from Red Bull Salzburg for an undisclosed sum. Should be 10-12m €. He is a national player for Slovenia and this week and it already was written down in BILD that his neighbor as a kid was a huge Dortmund fan and he then too started to love them. He wore a Dortmund shirt on his 1st schoolday, he had BvB shower gel, he had a BvB desk.
This can of course be seen as an instant help for the poor standings right now, but some say this is preparation in case Marco Reus leaves in summer of 2015 with his buy-out-clause. We will see, but i think the guy Kampl should help.
 
This move goes along with the sending-off of South Korean Dong-Won Ji from Dortmund to FC Augsburg, where he was already twice loaned for a half-season. The guy didn´t play a single match for the professional team and only five times for Dortmund II.

 

[ehaz]

Markovic has been on fire recently and has started in three straight games.  The new 3-4-3 seems to be actually working (somewhat), I doubt he leaves on loan. 
 
It should be interesting to see how much, if anything, FSG gives Liverpool to spend this window.  You'd have to think they'd make some serious changes to the transfer committee before committing cash to the next Lovren or Balotelli - but at the same time they really need another striker and DM.

 

[bosox4283]

I posted in the Atletico thread, but I'll repost here: Fernando Torres returns to Atletico, with the corresponding move of Cerci switching to Milan.
 
I'm also reading that ManCity may want to buy the Atletico striker Mario Mandzukic.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/man-city-transfer-gossip-mandzukic-8342715
 
For ManCity, I think it'd be a smart move -- Mandzukic is a good goal scorer, has proven he can play at the top level (Atletico bought him from Bayern), and is a tough team player. For Atletico, I shudder a bit to think we're going to go into the heart of the season with Torres as our #1/#2 striker, with Antoine Griezzman being the other.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

City is apparently close to buying Bony, with a fee of at least £30m.
 
He seems like a good alternative to (maybe replacement for, in the end) Dzeko as a big central striker off which Aguero or Jovetic can play, especially in Premier League matches in which they go 4-4-2.  £30m is steep but that's the world in which we live.  I have no idea how this might impact City's leeway in future dealings with respect to FFP.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

With Aguero and Dzeko injured £30m is on the high side, but not by much. He was the top scorer in the league for the calendar year of 2014 and netted 26 goals last season. Look at the fees Soldado, Dzeko, Negredo, Lallana, Lamela and Lukaku went for and Bony's fee doesn't look so bad.

 

[Schnerres]

Shaqiri to Inter.
 
Odegaard to Real.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Shaqiri to Inter.
 
Odegaard to Real.

 
I bet Shaqiri really thrives at Inter.  He's a really good player, just not good enough to beat out the likes of Ribery, Robben, Gotze, and Muller.
 
Its impossible to deny the appeal of Real as the biggest club in the world but I think Odegaard is probably making a mistake.  He's going to play for Real Madrid 2 for the next few years, get frustrated with his inability to get into the first team, and move somewhere else.

 

[teddykgb]

I don't understand Shaqiri to Inter at all, seems like a major coup for Inter.  Shaqiri can definitely blow a little hot and cold, but I'm surprised there weren't more suitors for his services.  Inter is starting to assemble a nice squad there, if they can hold onto everyone they should really start to challenge in Serie A imo.
 
edit: agree completely on Odegaard.  Seems like he's signing for the RM name, not sure what the point of that is for him right now.

 

[bosox4283]

I don't understand Shaqiri to Inter at all, seems like a major coup for Inter.  Shaqiri can definitely blow a little hot and cold, but I'm surprised there weren't more suitors for his services.  Inter is starting to assemble a nice squad there, if they can hold onto everyone they should really start to challenge in Serie A imo.
 
edit: agree completely on Odegaard.  Seems like he's signing for the RM name, not sure what the point of that is for him right now.

 
The issue with Real Madrid is that they sign stars, and stars do not want to sit on the bench. There are constant rumors and rumblings that Coentrao may leave, that Varane wants more minutes, and that [INSERT NAME] is not happy with his role on the team.
 
Let's assume that Odegaard has no problem sitting on the bench for his first year, maybe playing the easy rounds of La Copa del Rey or Champions League when the games are easier or don't matter for Real Madrid. 
 
In a year and a half, there may be a spot for him on the roster, but still it's a long shot even taking into consideration that Real Madrid has very little depth. At the start of the 2016-17 campaign, while Modric and Ronaldo will be over 30, those two plus Bale, Benzema, Isco, Jese, Kroos, James Rodriguez, and Casemiro (playing well on loan at Porto) will almost assuredly be ahead of Odegaard on the depth chart, especially considering that Odegaard will not yet be 18.**
 
That's nine players ahead of Odegaard in his second year. If one of those aforementioned players leaves, the team will sign another high-caliber replacement. 
 
**I did not count Illarramendi since I'd be willing to make a small wager that he leaves the team before then.

 

[candylandriots]

 
I bet Shaqiri really thrives at Inter.  He's a really good player, just not good enough to beat out the likes of Ribery, Robben, Gotze, and Muller.
 
Its impossible to deny the appeal of Real as the biggest club in the world but I think Odegaard is probably making a mistake.  He's going to play for Real Madrid 2 for the next few years, get frustrated with his inability to get into the first team, and move somewhere else.

 
Doesn't EUR 12MM (plus 2MM for the loan for the rest of the year) seem like Inter got a really good deal?

 

[PedroSpecialK]

Bony to City is official at £30m/35m depending on who you choose to believe

 

[teddykgb]

I'm seeing 28m if he hits bonuses in most places, but the media love to add millions onto the fees when discussing it.  Pretty happy to have completed a no fuss transfer of a good player.
 
http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/30817037
 
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/man-city-confirm-bony-signing-8445252

 

[soxfan121]

I'm seeing 28m if he hits bonuses in most places, but the media love to add millions onto the fees when discussing it.  Pretty happy to have completed a no fuss transfer of a good player.
 
http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/30817037
 
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/man-city-confirm-bony-signing-8445252

 
Typically, there is no fuss when you're paying 10M more than the player is worth. "England premium" included. 

 

[PedroSpecialK]

Whoops looks like my iPhone didn't put the € on there for €35m

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Whoops looks like my iPhone didn't put the € on there for €35m

 
 
TFC to sell Jermaine - it's a bloody big deal - Defoe to Sunderland for 14m English pounds.
 
What a disaster that was ..
 
https://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/premier-league-paper-round-defoe-return-premier-league-005948937--sow.html

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

TFC to sell Jermaine - it's a bloody big deal - Defoe to Sunderland for 14m English pounds.
 
What a disaster that was ..
 
https://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/premier-league-paper-round-defoe-return-premier-league-005948937--sow.html

£14M can't be remotely close to correct. Toronto bought him for £6M and its not like his value has gone up.

I'm seeing other reports that its actually some kind of swap deal involving Jozy.

 

[PedroSpecialK]

Yeah from how I understand it, it's that Defoe has £14m left on his contract, and Sunderland is swapping Altidore for Defoe.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Yeah from how I understand it, it's that Defoe has £14m left on his contract, and Sunderland is swapping Altidore for Defoe.

Ahhh...that makes a lot more sense.

Hopefully this is good for Jozy.

 

[soxfan121]

When I think world-class soccer, I think Toronto.

 

[teddykgb]

 
Typically, there is no fuss when you're paying 10M more than the player is worth. "England premium" included. 

 
I know you're having fun, but in a world where Balotelli is 20m, Markovic 25m, Blind 18m, Rojo 20m, and Lukaku is 30m....I actually think this is a really good price for a good proven player.  Some of those guys are expensive because they are so young, but there's no questioning that Bony can play and score in this league.  I'm probably higher on Bony than most, I was really unhappy with Liverpool being linked to him this summer, but even if you're not that high on him this seems like a very fair price in the current environment.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

Bony is a nice piece sitting on the bench once Aguero, Dzeko and Jovetic come back.

 

[PedroSpecialK]

There's talk that City are trying to loan Džeko out, most notably/hilariously to Stoke. They'd be best served to keep all four IMO given Aguero's fragility.

 

[DLew On Roids]

 
I know you're having fun, but in a world where Balotelli is 20m, Markovic 25m, Blind 18m, Rojo 20m, and Lukaku is 30m....I actually think this is a really good price for a good proven player.  Some of those guys are expensive because they are so young, but there's no questioning that Bony can play and score in this league.  I'm probably higher on Bony than most, I was really unhappy with Liverpool being linked to him this summer, but even if you're not that high on him this seems like a very fair price in the current environment.

 
Dude.
 
Balotelli was £16M.
 
Markovic was £20M.
 
Blind was £13.8M.
 
Rojo was £16M.
 
You actually got close to Lukaku's transfer fee of £28M, but if you're trying to establish that "in a world where..." thing, it's best not to overstate the transfer fees of the vast majority of your comps by 25%.

 

[Luis Taint]

Is anyone giving any credence to the David De Gea for Garath Bale talk? Several diffrent websites had it yesterday.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Is anyone giving any credence to the David De Gea for Garath Bale talk? Several diffrent websites had it yesterday.

 
No, it reeks of standard, stupid transfer speculation.  The swap deal hardly ever happens.
 
If De Gea wants to go to Madrid, he will go to Madrid this summer with or without Bale.  He only has a contract until 2016 and United will just have to sell.
 
I can see Bale leaving Madrid but it probably wouldn't be this summer, it wouldn't necessarily be to United, and it need not be linked to any kind of swap deal.
 
Fwiw, I'm not convinced that Bale is a truly elite player that I'd want a top club to build its attack around for the next 4-5 years.  He has blistering pace (which might fade with age) and a great shot from distance, but that seems about it to me. He would obviously improve United but as an Arsenal fan I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world if they went all-in on building their next team around Bale. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Btw, Winston Reid is on the bench for West Ham this morning, after having been out of the squad in their FA Cup fixture midweek.  They're certainly treating him like a player they're planning on selling this window.

 

[Zomp]

 
No, it reeks of standard, stupid transfer speculation.  The swap deal hardly ever happens.
 
If De Gea wants to go to Madrid, he will go to Madrid this summer with or without Bale.  He only has a contract until 2016 and United will just have to sell.
 
I can see Bale leaving Madrid but it probably wouldn't be this summer, it wouldn't necessarily be to United, and it need not be linked to any kind of swap deal.
 
Fwiw, I'm not convinced that Bale is a truly elite player that I'd want a top club to build its attack around for the next 4-5 years.  He has blistering pace (which might fade with age) and a great shot from distance, but that seems about it to me. He would obviously improve United but as an Arsenal fan I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world if they went all-in on building their next team around Bale. 

 
I actually disagree with most this.  I don't think it will actually happen, but it COULD happen.  Yes, if De Gea wants to move to Madrid, United will have no choice but to sell this summer but I think United could pry Bale away for a few reasons.  One, its widely known that United were ready with a 100 million pound bid for Bale when Moyes was around but Bale's people said he was too far in advance with Real.  Two, there have been reports that Ancelotti wouldn't mind letting him go to get James on the ball more and add one more defensive midfielder.  Three, lately the crowd has been questioning his decision making and Marca, who love to make up stories to Real's gain, say Ronaldo isn't happy about playing with him.
 
Also I think Bale is absolutely elite.  He's one of the top 10 players in the world and I don't see him slowing down any time soon.  He's 25 years old (would be 26 at the start of next season) and is in incredible shape.  Like Ronaldo I don't think his pace will diminish until he's unto his early 30's because of their builds and work out regimen.  In his last season at Tottenham he scored 26 goals, he had 22 last year and is on pace to have 20 again...playing from the wing.  If he ever moved to United he'd instantly become the best player in the Premier League, like he was in his last year with Spurs.
 
and don't get me wrong, I love De Gea.  But the drop off from a top 3 goalkeeper in the world to a top 15 goalkeeper in the world is worth the drop off in quality if you can gain a top 3 winger in the world.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Please delete

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
I actually disagree with most this.  I don't think it will actually happen, but it COULD happen.  Yes, if De Gea wants to move to Madrid, United will have no choice but to sell this summer but I think United could pry Bale away for a few reasons.  One, its widely known that United were ready with a 100 million pound bid for Bale when Moyes was around but Bale's people said he was too far in advance with Real.  Two, there have been reports that Ancelotti wouldn't mind letting him go to get James on the ball more and add one more defensive midfielder.  Three, lately the crowd has been questioning his decision making and Marca, who love to make up stories to Real's gain, say Ronaldo isn't happy about playing with him.
 
Also I think Bale is absolutely elite.  He's one of the top 10 players in the world and I don't see him slowing down any time soon.  He's 25 years old (would be 26 at the start of next season) and is in incredible shape.  Like Ronaldo I don't think his pace will diminish until he's unto his early 30's because of their builds and work out regimen.  In his last season at Tottenham he scored 26 goals, he had 22 last year and is on pace to have 20 again...playing from the wing.  If he ever moved to United he'd instantly become the best player in the Premier League, like he was in his last year with Spurs.
 
and don't get me wrong, I love De Gea.  But the drop off from a top 3 goalkeeper in the world to a top 15 goalkeeper in the world is worth the drop off in quality if you can gain a top 3 winger in the world.

I guess my point is that both players might move, but they're really separate transactions. The press sensationalizes these things with elaborate speculation about swaps. But really United has no real leverage to demand that Bale move as a condition of DeGea moving, just like Liverpool had no real leverage to demand Sanchez in exchange for Suarez. If Bale to United makes sense for all parties on its own merits, it happens. If not, it doesn't happen.

 

[soxfan121]

I guess my point is that both players might move, but they're really separate transactions. 

 
For most clubs, yes. 
 
For two of the 800 lb. elephants? These clubs are more in "cahoots" than most feeder-parent clubs. Look at all the past business and the certainty that SAF would "in" on a decision such as this and it makes as much sense as Zomp says it does. 

 

[Zomp]

I guess my point is that both players might move, but they're really separate transactions. The press sensationalizes these things with elaborate speculation about swaps. But really United has no real leverage to demand that Bale move as a condition of DeGea moving, just like Liverpool had no real leverage to demand Sanchez in exchange for Suarez. If Bale to United makes sense for all parties on its own merits, it happens. If not, it doesn't happen.

 
In a recent poll on Manchester Evening News' website, they asked readers who they'd rather have.  Currently 79% say they'd rather have De Gea...which means 79% of people are wrong.  Again, I love him but outfield players, particularly attackers, are just so much more valuable.  The reason I am saying this is I think this may be one instance where a swap plus cash deal could be used for PR reasons.  If it happens, Real will have to limit damage control on their record signing going to another club, and they could do so by saying "Well we had to ship him out to get De Gea, who is from Madrid (we'll ignore the fact that he started at Attletico because Real certainly will) and will be our next Casillas".   United will need to spin it was well as De Gea is clearly loved.

 

[soxfan121]

Good point Zomp. And it really is a no brainer for both teams, at least for CL roster rules. Each guy has to be one of the best 17 (as neither qualifies as homegrown) for their current club, but switching places makes them one of 25, opening another slot for a "foreign" player on the roster. 

 

[teddykgb]

I don't agree with either of you.  That type of transaction just doesn't happen.  There are often logical reasons for these types of swaps to happen, but they don't.  I could see Bale at United and I could see De Gea going to Madrid, possibly even in the same transfer window, but I honestly doubt they'd ever be tied up in the same transaction.  I don't think you're giving enough credence to player power and the fact that these players won't go anywhere until the other team taps them up enough to force them to agitate for a move.  Both teams optimal outcome would be to keep their player and get the other team's player -- these aren't "need to sell in order to buy" clubs.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

In a recent poll on Manchester Evening News' website, they asked readers who they'd rather have.  Currently 79% say they'd rather have De Gea...which means 79% of people are wrong.  Again, I love him but outfield players, particularly attackers, are just so much more valuable.  The reason I am saying this is I think this may be one instance where a swap plus cash deal could be used for PR reasons.  If it happens, Real will have to limit damage control on their record signing going to another club, and they could do so by saying "Well we had to ship him out to get De Gea, who is from Madrid (we'll ignore the fact that he started at Attletico because Real certainly will) and will be our next Casillas".   United will need to spin it was well as De Gea is clearly loved.

They might spin the moves in various ways but I think they're ultimately two transactions with distinct logics. As Teddy says, these moves are all about player power and the clubs really have so little leverage in the end. Both deals happen only if they both make sense individually.

I really have no idea what Perez and Ancellotti think of Bale. Money always talks, even for a club like Real, and if United offer enough then Real will have to seriously consider selling him. But I imagine a lot would depend on who they might bring in as a replacement (Reus?). From what I understand, James was not nearly as good at Monaco when he played on the wing and the same is probably true for Isco, so I'm not sure either one is really an ideal direct replacement. And with Ronaldo and his knee issues, they also need to make sure that they have contingency plans for him going down for a month or two.

I do agree that this would leave United strengthened. When I said Bale wasn't a truly elite player, I meant he's more like a Top 20-25 player in the world IMO while his reputation is as a Top 10 player. You and others might reasonably disagree but either way that's more valuable than a keeper, even one as good as De Gea.

 

[teddykgb]

I find the valuation of De Gea more interesting.  Zomp says he'd swap him for Bale no doubt, but De Gea probably has literally saved a dozen points for United this season by my recollection.  It seems like United are mid table or lower again without him making save after save this season.  You say the drop off isn't that large, are you sure about that?

 

[Zomp]

To be honest I have a tough time quantifying what he's done for us this season myself.  I'd have to literally go save by save (which I can't do, I don't think) to see what exactly he's saved us.  No doubt its been at least 6 points but beyond that I don't know what else.  Against Liverpool, for example, he saved 8 shots, probably 3 or 4 were incredible saves.  We won 3-0, and if he lets a goal in it changes what happens next so how can you say what the result would be?  Then you have to figure that other keepers would have made some of the saves, but which ones?  I'm not sure its possible.  The other thing is if De Gea is sold, they bring in someone decent right?  Maybe not top 10 in the world, but top 20?  How has Valdes recovered from his injuries and can he still play at a high level?  So many question marks.
 
The only thing I'm sure of is the drop off from a top 10 attacker in the world to a top 20 is much larger than a top 10 keeper to a top 20, which is why you take the attacker.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

De Gea has been absurd this season but I'm not sure you can expect him to be that good going forward.  If you were sure that he would keep playing out of his mind like this then I think the valuation of him versus Bale becomes more difficult.

 

[PedroSpecialK]

Tin Jedvaj completes a permanent move to Leverkeusen.

In other news, somehow Spurs managed to get £5m out of Swansea for Kyle Naughton.

 

[Luis Taint]

Fwiw,It was reported in the Metro.uk that De Gea has agreed to terms with Real Madrid.

 

[Zomp]

You're going to have to come up with a better source than the Metro.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

The January window is usually somewhat of a bust but it seems like this year has been unusually quiet.
 
Many people are reporting that Mattia Destro will go from Roma to Milan on loan with an option to buy around 16m euro.  That's a very reasonable price for a very promising striker who led all Serie A last year in non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 minutes.  Roma seem like a well-run club in general to me but I just don't understand how they couldn't find adequate minutes for him.  At some point, Milan will rise again and I could see Destro being a significant part of that.

 

[Schnerres]

Any news on Schürrle? Will he go to Wolfsburg or where?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Any news on Schürrle? Will he go to Wolfsburg or where?

 
My guess is that he stays, at least until the summer.  As much as Mourinho seems to be down on Schurrle (personally, I don't understand why), he clearly has even less faith in Salah and Remy, as his remarks after the recent FA Cup loss suggest.  So they are thin in terms of attacking options on the wing (Hazard/Willian/Schurrle), assuming everybody else is playing in their preferred positions (Oscar@10, Fabregas@8).  Even if they buy Cuadrado, as continues to be rumored, they will still have little depth if they sell Schurrle this winter.  So it likely makes far more sense to hang onto him until the summer and then sell him, to Wolfsburg or another club.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

-Callum McManaman will go to West Brom for £4.75M.  I remember him simply ravaging City a few years ago in the FA Cup final.  While it seems like he's never realized his potential at Wigan, he certainly deserves to be playing in the top flight.
 
-Zaha will sign permanently for Palace for £3.5M.  He made all of two appearances for Manchester United.  At least Lauren Moyes got something out of the deal.
 
-Bale says "I can't see myself at Manchester United."

 

[soxfan121]

-Bale says "I can't see myself at Manchester United."

 
Ouch. 

 

[DLew On Roids]

-Zaha will sign permanently for Palace for £3.5M.  He made all of two appearances for Manchester United.  At least Lauren Moyes got something out of the deal.

 
Awesome.
 
The concept of a De Gea-for-Bale swap actually made me laugh out loud the first time I heard it.  Really?  United fans would swap a £30M keeper for an £80M attacker?  Shocking.