Bengals @ Pats: The Enemy Perspective

[soxfan121]

Bengals @ Pats: The Enemy Perspective
by Dan Katz (aka, a real Bengals fan)
 

Based on each team’s performance to date, the Bengals should be bigger favorites than the current line (-1.5) when they meet the Patriots Sunday night in Foxboro. Cincinnati leads the NFL inDVOA at 41.7%, putting them 9.0% ahead of Seattle for the top spot, while New England ranks just 23rd at -5.8%. However, the line is what it is for a reason. The Patriots have been near-unbeatable at home over the years: Tom Brady has won his last 38 regular season games at Gillette Stadium against conference opponents dating back to 2006. Meanwhile, the Bengals struggled on the road last season (3-5) and are also just 2-4 in prime time since their current playoff run started in 2011; one of those wins came late in 2012 against an Eagles team that finished the year on a 1-11 run.
 

 

 

[Tony C]

I never would have guessed that coming off a bye vs a team on a short week has been an advantage for the team on the short week (so long as they are at home). Go figure.
 
Nice write-up. I have to say the Bengals look less ferocious after reading these breakdowns than I had assumed. Still a favorite, though. In terms of Pacman being a weakness, I wonder if we might see D. Dennard more -- they seem to love him.

 

[axx]

The Patriots were actually initially favored, if you can believe that. The line likely is more of a reflection of last year going 9-0 at home than anything this year. Even Cincy -1 is being awfully generous considering how poorly the Pats have played.

 

[j44thor]

What scares me most about CIN is that they don't turn the ball over nor do they give up sacks.  NE defense relies on big plays and if you take those away from them it has been proven you can move up and down the field on them.
 
I do think CIN is slightly overrated due to who they have played but I think NE is probably equally if not more overrated because of who they were.

 

[Super Nomario]

What scares me most about CIN is that they don't turn the ball over nor do they give up sacks.  NE defense relies on big plays and if you take those away from them it has been proven you can move up and down the field on them.
 
I do think CIN is slightly overrated due to who they have played but I think NE is probably equally if not more overrated because of who they were.

Cincy doesn't give up sacks, but I'm not sure about turnovers. They only have one this year, but they committed 30 last year. If you can get to Dalton, he'll make bad throws.

 

[Tony C]

Agreed on the TOs. On the rush, also agreed -- in re Whitworth being a stone wall, is there any sense to flipping Jones and Nink so there's a least a slightly more favorable matchup with Jones against Smith? Not like Nink has had much push this year, so may as well put him against the better pass protector.

 

[Super Nomario]

Agreed on the TOs. On the rush, also agreed -- in re Whitworth being a stone wall, is there any sense to flipping Jones and Nink so there's a least a slightly more favorable matchup with Jones against Smith? Not like Nink has had much push this year, so may as well put him against the better pass protector.

I don't think Smith is really a more favorable matchup. He's one of the best RTs in the league. I think if you get to Cincy, it's gotta be up the middle, which is a problem, especially since we don't know if Easley will play.