Big Picture 2015 and beyond.

[nvalvo]

To prevent this sort of discussion from spilling over into what are putatively news threads, I thought it would help to have a thread devoted to big picture discussion of the strategic and roster ramifications exposed by the trade deadline. 
 
It's becoming clearer and clearer with each rumor that the team is in a very peculiar circumstance. Two seasons removed from collapse, one removed from astonishing success, injuries and underperformance have left what was supposed to be an orderly transition to younger players in a shambles, and left the team in last place. The Lester saga in particular raises questions about the trajectory of the franchise. 
 
We spent the last off-season talking about how Cherington's masterful short FA signings helped patch holes in the roster and compete in the short term, but the drawbacks of that strategy were more apparent in 2014, as the roster was overtaken by the health woes of the previous signees (Victorino, Napoli) and the poor performance of the new crop of FA signees (AJP, Sizemore). At the same time, the rookies being incorporated, principally Bogaerts, Bradley and De La Rosa, have struggled at times, and looked good at others. Bogaerts, in particular, looked like a HOF candidate for a few months, before entering a deep slump. 
 
The pitching has been okay (team ERA+ is 100); the offense horrible (team OPS+ is 95). 
 
The team has notable strengths, however. Perhaps most notable is the strength and depth of the farm system. It seems clear that this sets us up well for offseason trades. 
 
What would your aims be if you were Cherington and the FO? How deeply do you sell from the big league roster? Who is untouchable? What returns do you need to see? 
 
What are your offseason FA and trade targets? How do you see the roster shaping up in 2015? 2016? When is our window? 

 

[KillerBs]

We have the following 25 man April 2015 roster sitting in our lap:
 
C -- Vaz, Ross (or another "mentor"pending Swihart)
1b -- Napoli
2b -- Pedroia
3b -- Holt, WMB
ss -- Bogaerts (with Marrero decision pending)
lf -- Nava, Betts
cf -- Bradley
rf -- Victorino PLUS acquisition
dh -- Ortiz
 
sp -- Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, DeLaRosa, Workman
rp -- Koji, Taz, Miller, Webster, Ranaudo, Wright, Owens
 
That would be a fun team to root for, be cheap and could compete in the AL East with some breaks. Perfect blend of vets from past glory days and the kids. Love to watch that Weaveresque bullpen. You could sign Nelson Cruz or Markakis, for the OF spot, or deal some young pitchers for the OFer to replace Vic, if you please. All well within budget. This also allows you to get involved with Stanton when/if he becomes available if you decide he is the missing piece.
 
It is not that tricky.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

We have the following 25 man April 2015 roster sitting in our lap:

 
So...the same mediocre team we have now, except with most of our top pitching prospects stuffed into the major league bullpen?  That doesn't sound like much of a plan.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

 
So...the same mediocre team we have now, except with most of our top pitching prospects stuffed into the major league bullpen?  That doesn't sound like much of a plan.

yes.  seems like they need a bat or 2.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

We have the following 25 man April 2015 roster sitting in our lap:
 
sp -- Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, DeLaRosa, Workman
rp -- Koji, Taz, Miller, Webster, Ranaudo, Wright, Owens

 
Please define "sitting in our lap" with reference to the bolded.

 

[KillerBs]

I think that speculative lineup above, even without the RF acquisition, has every chance to be in the top half of the league offensively in 2015. Sure, we would be counting on X and Bradley to get significantly better, 3b not to be a black hole, and/or Nava/Betts to provide league average ofensive performance in LF, but these aren't exactly long shots. We will be counting on much of that in any event.
 
Add Markakis, Cruz or Melky, get the expected improvement from X and JBJ and that is a solid lineup assuming Papi rolls on.
 
And what's wrong with our "top pitching prospects stuffed into the major league bullpen." The way Buchholz is going, one of them is likely to graduate soon. Lackey is gone in 2016. I prefer it to stuffing them all into the starting rotation, which seems to be the plan now.

 

[KillerBs]

By "sitting in our lap", I mean readily retained without undue hardship.
 
Lester wants to be here, looks prepared to sign a deal approaching market value. 5/120, 6/140 whatever. This could be done, without great difficulty from what I gather if the Sox were prepared to put reasonable money up.
 
Koji ditto. Given him the QO, if need be, which I understand has been floated by the team already. Or go 2/16 or something.
 
I grant that re-signing Miller might be more difficult. Hard to know what he gets on the open market and I haven't heard him express any particular desire to stay in Boston. But if you tell him he will be given decent shot to be closer, when/if Koji goes down, and pay him something approaching market value, I would think that would be doable too.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

By "sitting in our lap", I mean readily retained without undue hardship.
 
Lester wants to be here, looks prepared to sign a deal approaching market value. 5/120, 6/140 whatever. This could be done, without great difficulty from what I gather if the Sox were prepared to put reasonable money up.

 
Most of the twitterverse buzz at the moment seems to be that there is little or no chance that Lester will sign with the Sox. What have you heard to the contrary?

 

[KillerBs]

We don't need to rehash this here. Based on media reports, I think the Sox could re-sign Lester if they wanted to in the 5/120 to 6/140 range. He has been pretty upfront about his desire to stay in Boston, and that he doesn't place exclusive priority on the $. Admittedly, we do not have complete information here.

 

[jasail]

Right now, assuming no moves (trades or re-signings) the Sox have the following players on presently on their 25 man roster vying for a position on the 2015 opening day roster:
Vazquez (C) - Napoli (1B) - Pedroia (2B) - Xander (SS/3B) - Holt (UIF/UOF) - Nava (LF/RF/1B) - JBJr (CF/RF) - Victorino (CF/RF) - Ortiz (DH) - Carp (LF/1B)
Lackey* (SP) - Buchholz (SP) - Webster (SP) - De La Rosa (SP) - Doubront (SP/RP) Mujica (RP) - Breslow (RP) - Tazawa (RP)
 
At AAA the Sox have the following players who may be ready to contribute in some capacity come opening day:
Butler (C) - WMB (3B) - Betts (OF/2B) - Herrerra (IF) - Hassan (LF)
Ranaudo (SP) - Workman (SP/RP) - Wright (SP/RP) - Britton (RP) - Wilson (RP) - Ely (RP) - Hembree (RP) - Villarreal (RP)
 
At AA/AAA the Sox have the following players who may be able to contribute next year:
Brentz (OF) - Checchini (IF/OF) - Marrerro (SS) - Shaw (1B) - Swihart (C)
Owens (SP) - Barnes (SP) - Escobar (SP)
 
Considering what they already have and who they have readily available their most obvious holes are: (1) Front of the rotation starter; (2) Power bat; (3) back end of the bullpen; (4) back up C (5) OF depth; and (6) Improvements on LIF. * If Lackey retires or otherwise does not pitch in 2015 then SP depth becomes a substantial concern. 
 
Holes 1 and 2 are unlikely to be pursued via free agency, if the statements about the Sox FO's aversion to long-term high-value deals to FAs in their 30s are true. Although I can see them going for 2nd tier players like Shields, Floyd or Masterson or Cruz in the OF. These holes, IMO, are most likely to be addressed through trades. They have a lot of redundancy in the high minors: it is unlikely that Checchini, WMB and Xander will every occupy the same lineup, likely the same with Betts and Bradley and the future rotation is not going to include five from the Owens, Barnes, Webster, Ranaudo, De La Rosa, Escobar and Workman group. So they have the pieces to bring in an elite bat or an elite arm.  If this was me, I'd start with a Godfather offer for Stanton. This depth of prospects and ability to trade only grows if they end up pursuing a fire sale this week. Ideally, they would be able to compile enough assets to trade for both an elite bat and an elite arm, while maintaining organization depth across the diamond - this is likely a pipe dream.
 
They should be able to address some of the 3-6 holes using the teams free agency model of overpaying for short term deals for above average veterans with certain strong positives. They could extend the QO to Koji to bring him back and potentially take a flier on another FA or two like they did this past season with Badenhop, Capuano and Mujica. At back-up C they can re-sign Ross if he does not want to retire, or go after a guy like Russel Martin or Kurt Suzuki.  Things get trickier when it comes to back up OF depth or LIF depth because they need to see how things shake out and who among their MLB ready players ends up where. That said, Chavez, Lowrie, Hardy, and Drew represent some possible low acquisition cost LIF guys and Rasmus, Davis, Young and Hunter (if he doesn't retire) could be somewhat low acquisition cost OF guys (not much of a group).
 
IMO, its obvious to me that right now their goal is to acquire assets, get younger and gain financial flexibility. However, these are not ends they are means and figuring out how to use this to put together a team worthy of admission is where the rubber meets the road.

 

[alwyn96]

 
So...the same mediocre team we have now, except with most of our top pitching prospects stuffed into the major league bullpen?  That doesn't sound like much of a plan.

 
So instead of complaining, let's come up with a plan! I'll start with LF.
 
Get a LF in free agency:
Morse
Cabrera
Cuddyer
That Cuban guy
Willingham
 
Ok, those guys all have some issues, which is why they shouldn't cost an insane amount in $$ and years. Morse and Cabrera are having good years, and Morse has that sweet, sweet ISO that everyone thinks is Really Important right now. Is he terrible in the field? You bet! Is he worse than Gomes? Hard to say? 
 
Trade targets:
Craig
Quentin
Heyward
Trumbo
Bruce
 
Talk about issues! All of these guys are having terrible years. Which is why they might be cheap! Actually Heyward is pretty good. If you wanna roll the dice on a guy who at least in the recent past had the capability of hitting 30 bombs or being an all-star without giving up a king's ransom in trade, these guys could probably do it. It'll probably hurt and be risky, but prospects are risky too. Unfortunately you look like a total idiot if you trade for one of these guys and they don't bounce back to where you hoped, Napoli-style. I'm not gonna get into Stanton, since that's well-worn territory.
 
Go with the guys you got:
Nava
Holt
Betts
 
This actually seems like the most risky plan to me, but it's certainly cheap and allows you to focus your attention elsewhere. 

 

[nvalvo]

I don't think we can really stand pat and expect to contend, although I believe that we would see enough improvement from the young players to improve meaningfully over the 2014 vintage. 
 
The main issues as I see them: 

• The outfield is a mess. This is the most pressing. The 2013 outfield depended on unrealistic best-case scenario performance from Victorino, especially, but also the Gomes/Nava platoon. It's simply too many roster spots to too many flawed players, and it left the roster brittle in the event of injury and underperformance. 
• Should Lester and/or Lackey depart, the rotation will need significant help at the top end. At least one is a near certainty. I like Buchholz as a 4-5 starter with ace upside, but he's not reliable enough to really factor into the top end pitching the team will need next season. 
• Left side of the infield needs stability. 
• The lineup needs lengthening, and really, another SLG-heavy bat for the Giant Part of the Order </weei>. 

The steps I take: 

• Victorino needs to go, or at least be demoted to a bench role. I said before the season that he was a huge health/performance risk, and unfortunately that's been borne out. 
• I trade Lester and Miller and Gomes for as many top-100 prospects as we can fit on the roster. I think they should return three or four. 
• All of the youth we're incorporating opens up space for a couple of big FA contracts. These should go to players in their 20s. Accordingly, if at all possible, I would like to see a trade/market rate extension for Giancarlo Stanton. Put him in LF longterm. After 2015, I want to sign Jason Heyward, assuming he makes it to FA as expected. He's a plus-OBP, plus-plus defender in RF, with power potential, and, like Stanton, he's only 24. Both of these moves will be expensive, but at least you'll be paying for both players' projected primes. Bradley stays in CF, unless he absolutely must go in the deal for Stanton. 
• Until Heyward arrives, Holt is your starting RF. This is a massive performance risk for 2015. 
• I replace Lackey's minimum year with a 2/$20m extension. We'll need innings in 2015-6. 
• We need to acquire the best SP we can. I probably would have signed Lester; that they didn't do that tells me either the price was high or they have health/decline doubts. I probably look for a youngish SP under contract on a bad team, i.e. Cole Hamels. I don't love it, but I think something like that has got to be the move. (Johnny Cueto? Henderson Alvarez?) We need 200 quality innings from this spot, more than we need upside. The upside comes from our pitching prospects. 
• Where I'm at a loss is power. Ortiz' and Napoli's impending retirements after 2015 leave us Waiting for Devers in that department, even with the addition of Stanton. Heyward isn't the same kind of power bat, even if he hit 27 HR a few years ago. Maybe Travis Shaw? Maybe Middlebrooks? Maybe Nava as a 5th OF/1B, platooned with an RHB slugger like Michael Morse? 

As of April 2016, this is a rough roster: 
 
Bogaerts 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Stanton LF
Shaw/Cecchini/Middlebrooks/no idea? 1B
Heyward RF
Vazquez/Swihart C
Bradley CF
Marrero SS
 
Holt/Betts SUPER SUB
 
Hamels-type. 
Lackey
De La Rosa
Buchholz
Webster/Ranaudo/Owens
Doubront
 
Bullpen
Tazawa
Barnes (Plus fastball and...)  
Hembree
Etc.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I don't think we can really stand pat and expect to contend, although I believe that we would see enough improvement from the young players to improve meaningfully over the 2014 vintage. 
 
The main issues as I see them: 

• The outfield is a mess. This is the most pressing. The 2013 outfield depended on unrealistic best-case scenario performance from Victorino, especially, but also the Gomes/Nava platoon. It's simply too many roster spots to too many flawed players, and it left the roster brittle in the event of injury and underperformance. 
• Should Lester and/or Lackey depart, the rotation will need significant help at the top end. At least one is a near certainty. I like Buchholz as a 4-5 starter with ace upside, but he's not reliable enough to really factor into the top end pitching the team will need next season. 
• Left side of the infield needs stability. 
• The lineup needs lengthening, and really, another SLG-heavy bat for the Giant Part of the Order </weei>. 

The steps I take: 

• Victorino needs to go, or at least be demoted to a bench role. I said before the season that he was a huge health/performance risk, and unfortunately that's been borne out. 
• I trade Lester and Miller and Gomes for as many top-100 prospects as we can fit on the roster. I think they should return three or four. 
• All of the youth we're incorporating opens up space for a couple of big FA contracts. These should go to players in their 20s. Accordingly, if at all possible, I would like to see a trade/market rate extension for Giancarlo Stanton. Put him in LF longterm. After 2015, I want to sign Jason Heyward, assuming he makes it to FA as expected. He's a plus-OBP, plus-plus defender in RF, with power potential, and, like Stanton, he's only 24. Both of these moves will be expensive, but at least you'll be paying for both players' projected primes. Bradley stays in CF, unless he absolutely must go in the deal for Stanton. 
• Until Heyward arrives, Holt is your starting RF. This is a massive performance risk for 2015. 
• I replace Lackey's minimum year with a 2/$20m extension. We'll need innings in 2015-6. 
• We need to acquire the best SP we can. I probably would have signed Lester; that they didn't do that tells me either the price was high or they have health/decline doubts. I probably look for a youngish SP under contract on a bad team, i.e. Cole Hamels. I don't love it, but I think something like that has got to be the move. (Johnny Cueto? Henderson Alvarez?) We need 200 quality innings from this spot, more than we need upside. The upside comes from our pitching prospects. 
• Where I'm at a loss is power. Ortiz' and Napoli's impending retirements after 2015 leave us Waiting for Devers in that department, even with the addition of Stanton. Heyward isn't the same kind of power bat, even if he hit 27 HR a few years ago. Maybe Travis Shaw? Maybe Middlebrooks? Maybe Nava as a 5th OF/1B, platooned with an RHB slugger like Michael Morse? 

As of April 2016, this is a rough roster: 
 
Bogaerts 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Stanton LF
Shaw/Cecchini/Middlebrooks/no idea? 1B
Heyward RF
Vazquez/Swihart C
Bradley CF
Marrero SS
 
Holt/Betts SUPER SUB
 
Hamels-type. 
Lackey
De La Rosa
Buchholz
Webster/Ranaudo/Owens
Doubront
 
Bullpen
Tazawa
Barnes (Plus fastball and...)  
Hembree
Etc.

 
I generally like this plan with the following changes.
 
-Play Betts full time in RF the rest of this season and all next season.  If he's progressing and producing well, there's no need to sign a guy like Heyward.  I want to give Mookie every chance to become the plus full time player that he clearly has the potential to be.
 
-I'm skeptical about the cost of acquiring a guy like Hamels and I'm increasingly dubious that we can contend in 2015 under anything but the most optimistic of scenarios.  So my plan would be to go with the kids in the rotation in 2015 (a mix of Lackey, Buchholz, RDLR, Ranaudo, Webster, Owens. Escobar) and see what we have, with the intention of spending on pitching in the offseason after 2015 if we felt a big time FA could vault the team into contention for 2016.
 
Basically, given how bad this team is right now, what we seem bound to lose (Lester, maybe Koji) plus further decline to some aging core pieces (Ortiz especially), and the current development trajectory of our young future core (players like Bogaerts and Bradley not advancing quite as quickly as we hoped), I just don't think contending in 2015 is all that realistic.  So I'd rather maintain roster and financial flexibility, get younger players as much of an audition as possible in order to find out what we have, and shoot for 2016.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
I generally like this plan with the following changes.
 
-Play Betts full time in RF the rest of this season and all next season.  If he's progressing and producing well, there's no need to sign a guy like Heyward.  I want to give Mookie every chance to become the plus full time player that he clearly has the potential to be.
 
-I'm skeptical about the cost of acquiring a guy like Hamels and I'm increasingly dubious that we can contend in 2015 under anything but the most optimistic of scenarios.  So my plan would be to go with the kids in the rotation in 2015 (a mix of Lackey, Buchholz, RDLR, Ranaudo, Webster, Owens. Escobar) and see what we have, with the intention of spending on pitching in the offseason after 2015 if we felt a big time FA could vault the team into contention for 2016.
 
Basically, given how bad this team is right now, what we seem bound to lose (Lester, maybe Koji) plus further decline to some aging core pieces (Ortiz especially), and the current development trajectory of our young future core (players like Bogaerts and Bradley not advancing quite as quickly as we hoped), I just don't think contending in 2015 is all that realistic.  So I'd rather maintain roster and financial flexibility, get younger players as much of an audition as possible in order to find out what we have, and shoot for 2016.

I see the logic here - I don't think the 2015 core looks strong, either - but this is unrealistic. After finishing last two of the previous three years, management isn't going to cut payroll in half and field a team that doesn't even pretend to be competitive while expecting fans to pay the same ticket prices. Maybe a 2013 approach makes sense - sign some mid-tier vets to good money for short years, so there's at least a plausible contender if things break right. That might mean guys like Betts, Marrero, and Swihart are learning in AAA rather than in the majors, but there's nothing wrong with that.
 
I don't assume that players develop faster or better with major league experience. Are JBJ and Bogaerts going to better in 2015 because they were allowed to flounder this year in the majors rather than playing at AAA? In 2018? I don't know; it could easily be the opposite, and as far as I know there's no data in either direction.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I see the logic here - I don't think the 2015 core looks strong, either - but this is unrealistic. After finishing last two of the previous three years, management isn't going to cut payroll in half and field a team that doesn't even pretend to be competitive while expecting fans to pay the same ticket prices. Maybe a 2013 approach makes sense - sign some mid-tier vets to good money for short years, so there's at least a plausible contender if things break right. That might mean guys like Betts, Marrero, and Swihart are learning in AAA rather than in the majors, but there's nothing wrong with that.
 
I don't assume that players develop faster or better with major league experience. Are JBJ and Bogaerts going to better in 2015 because they were allowed to flounder this year in the majors rather than playing at AAA? In 2018? I don't know; it could easily be the opposite, and as far as I know there's no data in either direction.

 
To be fair, the OP is asking what we'd do if we were Ben Cherington, not what we think will happen.  I also think there's a middle ground where the team makes only some very cosmetic additions, sells the notion of a youth movement that might be frisky (while knowing that's a massive longshot), and still has more than enough popular goodwill among the fanbase to survive another disappointing season.  Boston is not New York.  I don't think there's real pressure to put a contender on the field every year, especially if the more dedicated parts of the fanbase can be made to understand that there's a longer term plan.
 
For me, the point of playing the kids is not just that they might develop faster with MLB experience - which is plausible to me, but difficult to prove - but that we might get a better grasp on their potential once we see them get a serious run of games at the MLB level.  In particular, I think there's a limited amount to what we can learn about our advanced starting pitching prospects if the only challenge they face is AAA hitters.  At some point we need to give guys like Ranaudo, Webster, RDLR, Owens, and Escobar real extended exposure to major league hitters so that we can better determine which (if any) can be rotation building blocks moving forward.  Owens is the furthest away but probably the best case in point - nobody really has any clue how his stuff will play at the major league level and there's only one way to find out.

 

[gammoseditor]

 
As of April 2016, this is a rough roster: 
 
Bogaerts 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Stanton LF
Shaw/Cecchini/Middlebrooks/no idea? 1B
Heyward RF
Vazquez/Swihart C
Bradley CF
Marrero SS
 
 
 
 

 
I think this should be plan A by 2016.  I've been wondering how they spend the money they have going forward and Stanton/Heyward is the best possible outcome.  I know you outlined signing Heyward as a FA.  I'm sure you know this but you've listed a bunch of guys that probably have to go to get Stanton. 

 

[gammoseditor]

What will Stanton and Heyward cost? $450 million?

 
Per year is all that matters, and my guess is $55-$58 million.  They have the money.

 

[nvalvo]

 
I think this should be plan A by 2016.  I've been wondering how they spend the money they have going forward and Stanton/Heyward is the best possible outcome.  I know you outlined signing Heyward as a FA.  I'm sure you know this but you've listed a bunch of guys that probably have to go to get Stanton. 

 
Yeah. It's hard to predict trades. My thinking is that pieces acquired for Lester (and Miller, Koji, Gomes, whomever) at the deadline are likely going out to acquire Stanton in the offseason. I assume Cherington has a good sense of who Miami likes.
 
If Lester can bring back a Joc Pederson, maybe we can keep Swihart out of a Stanton deal. I'm spitballing, but I'd assume we'll need to send two excellent prospects (top-30ish) and two good prospects (Marrero-level) in a Stanton package. Maybe a bit more. 

 

[nvalvo]

What will Stanton and Heyward cost? $450 million?

 
The key is that we can get them both as 25 year olds, and sign them to deals that take them through age 33 or so. 

 

[jscola85]

I just don't see any way the Sox wind up winning both a trade bidding war for Stanton AND a FA bidding war for Heyward.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I'm getting a bit constipated with all the talk of position players (prospects) in trade for Lester or Lester/Lackey. Yes, the Red Sox have had a sucky offensive year, but that shouldn't mean we all get blind.
 
Consider the future rotation (short of major trade or FA signings, neither of which are looking spectacular) if these two guys are gone (nevermind Miller and Uehara, etc.)
 
Buchholz
 
De La Rosa
Workman
Doubront
Webster
 
Who anchors that staff for a couple of years as the kids start pitching to their potential? Even the Rays always had a top of the rotation set to back up their kids.
 
Sox outlook for 2015-2017 becomes pathetic, even if Giancarlo Stanton learns how to pitch.

 

[gammoseditor]

That's a bit aggressive.

Even if Stanton gets $30 there's no way someone's giving Heyward $28.

Come on dude.

 
On the high end, I was thinking Stanton could go over 30, but I suppose that's only true if he goes to free agency.  And we were talking if there's a trade, so I was off.  That being said, there's tons of money going around and a young elite player hasn't hit free agency in a long time.  I'd revise my floor to $50 with a ceiling of $55.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

OK, I'm going to beat my drum one more time, because I'm obnoxious.
 
Fictional Tigers 2013, you have to make a choice: Are they a better team with Cabrera, but no (one of) Scherzer or Verlander? Or are they a better team without Cabrera but with Mr. Cy Young?
 
It's not a really fair comparison because their entire pitching staff was superb, but my point is that a Stanton alone is not going to win you titles without an A-grade rotation, and the Sox rotation is in danger of becoming C-.
 
Now I really will shut up.

 

[gammoseditor]

OK, I'm going to beat my drum one more time, because I'm obnoxious.
 
Fictional Tigers 2013, you have to make a choice: Are they a better team with Cabrera, but no (one of) Scherzer or Verlander? Or are they a better team without Cabrera but with Mr. Cy Young?
 
It's not a really fair comparison because their entire pitching staff was superb, but my point is that a Stanton alone is not going to win you titles without an A-grade rotation, and the Sox rotation is in danger of becoming C-.
 
Now I really will shut up.

 
I don't think anyone believes Stanton alone wins you anything.  I don't see how it's not a step in the right direction, and I don't see anything in your anecdote that's in any way meaningful.  The Tigers lots in the ALCS with all 3 of those guys.  And nobody is agruing against pitching. 

 

[Super Nomario]

 
To be fair, the OP is asking what we'd do if we were Ben Cherington, not what we think will happen.  I also think there's a middle ground where the team makes only some very cosmetic additions, sells the notion of a youth movement that might be frisky (while knowing that's a massive longshot), and still has more than enough popular goodwill among the fanbase to survive another disappointing season.  Boston is not New York.  I don't think there's real pressure to put a contender on the field every year, especially if the more dedicated parts of the fanbase can be made to understand that there's a longer term plan.
 
For me, the point of playing the kids is not just that they might develop faster with MLB experience - which is plausible to me, but difficult to prove - but that we might get a better grasp on their potential once we see them get a serious run of games at the MLB level.  In particular, I think there's a limited amount to what we can learn about our advanced starting pitching prospects if the only challenge they face is AAA hitters.  At some point we need to give guys like Ranaudo, Webster, RDLR, Owens, and Escobar real extended exposure to major league hitters so that we can better determine which (if any) can be rotation building blocks moving forward.  Owens is the furthest away but probably the best case in point - nobody really has any clue how his stuff will play at the major league level and there's only one way to find out.

Maybe ... but how much of a conclusion are you going to be able to draw from a year, anyway? If Owens comes up midseason and struggles, we still won't know if that's because he's a AAAA player or because he's adjusting or because it's just a bad run of games.
 
The appealing thing about adding a power-hitting OF and / or a top-of-the-rotation starter is that even in an ideal scenario it's not clear that any of the youngsters fills those roles. They're probably going to need to go outside the organization to fill those needs anyway, and the have the budget space and trade assets to do it now - which has the side effect of making the 2015 team a lot more competitive and interesting.

 

[Stitch01]

If all the rookies perform the same as they did this year and most of the vets have terrible years they'll suck with Lester and Lackey too. Guessing that's a wee bit pessimistic.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Maybe ... but how much of a conclusion are you going to be able to draw from a year, anyway? If Owens comes up midseason and struggles, we still won't know if that's because he's a AAAA player or because he's adjusting or because it's just a bad run of games.
 
The appealing thing about adding a power-hitting OF and / or a top-of-the-rotation starter is that even in an ideal scenario it's not clear that any of the youngsters fills those roles. They're probably going to need to go outside the organization to fill those needs anyway, and the have the budget space and trade assets to do it now - which has the side effect of making the 2015 team a lot more competitive and interesting.

To clarify, I was supporting a move for Stanton, just not enthusiastic about also trading for a Hamels type this offseason. And that's before I read in the other thread about Amaro's current asking price.

 

[chawson]

Listen, I think you guys are smart to fantasize about Heyward. He's an exceptional right fielder whose bat has been as good as Pedroia's the last three years (.349 v. .348 wOBA), with upside. With Fenway dimensions he's probably more valuable to us than anyone else.

Furthermore, factoring what Ben and Cashman know about defense, RF might be probably the one position in baseball where we have a reasonable chance of outbidding the MFY.

A 2016 outfield of Stanton-Bradley-Heyward is unreal.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah given what they have on the farm that's a rather good use of cash. Need a lot of things to go right to pull it off.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The attempt to stock up on positional prospects while sitting on a ton of young pitching is interesting, as it suggests the team is either gearing up for a trade to improve the lineup, is looking to land a big bat prospect or two in these trades, or both. The Peavy trade is a recent bit of evidence against this idea, but all of the rumors are that the Red Sox want a big bat in return for Lester and/or Lackey. So, given the decline of offense across the league and the number of high ceiling pitchers they already have in the system, it makes sense for them to be focusing on rebuilding the lineup. If Lester is asking for more than they are willing to give, they may as well cash him in either for chips toward a hitter, or prospects who might be that next big bat in the lineup.
 
Yes, it's true that you need a very good or better rotation to win in the playoffs, but the idea that you need to have more than one ace is outdated. Going into September last year, the refrain around here was that the team didn't have the pitching to win it all, even after picking up Peavy. Turns out they did. We may be entering an era where the focus needs to be on the lineup before the rotation. If that's true, they may well be gearing up for a run at Stanton and that would go a long way toward setting up the lineup for the future. Napoli and Papi are both probably gone after 2015, but building around Bogaerts and Stanton is a good long term plan.
 
The talk about Heyward is intriguing, but too much can happen between now and the end of 2015 for me to start penciling him in anywhere. For now, I'll hope that the way Lester's departure is playing out is an indication that they are committed to securing a formidable lineup to carry the team through the second half of the decade. They'll need to replace Lester at the top of the rotation, but they have to have some confidence that eventually they will churn out another ace through the farm system. In the short term, a pick up of someone like James Shields can probably keep them in the playoffs over the next few years. If they move both Lester and Lackey, they'll probably need to sign two guys in that range, of course.
Regardless, I'd really like to see a focus on bringing in some big bats.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I've been trying for hours to put a reasonable post together for this topic, only to conclude that it's impossible until the deadline passes.
 
For every trade that nets Heyward for RF long-term that I put together, there's another rumor that Bell is coming back for Lester.  
 
The crazy season, indeed.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

It's becoming apparent to me that Matt Kemp is this front office version of Julio Lugo. The binky that will never die. Hopefully when Kemp does come whether it's now or in a year he doesn't perform like Lugo. How does a healthy Kemp JBJ and Victorino profile?

I do think Swihart has a shot to start at catcher by June if everything breaks right. I still think Lester comes back and will continue to believe that until he ends up signing elsewhere.

 

[Curtis Pride]

2015 may be more like the 1997 Red Sox. Roger Clemens had gone to the Blue Jays, and they traded for Pedro the next offseason. As you might guess their pitching was mediocre, but their offense was strong enough to keep them in games. Mo Vaughn, John Valentin, and Nomar were the core. That season they traded Heathcliff Slocumb for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek. Trot Nixon was still in the minors.  1997 sucked, but 1998 was a lot of fun.
 
So 2015 could be a year for developing their young talent more, and either one of the young pitchers will emerge as an ace (like Clemens) or they acquire an ace (like Pedro).

 

[jscola85]

It's becoming apparent to me that Matt Kemp is this front office version of Julio Lugo. The binky that will never die. Hopefully when Kemp does come whether it's now or in a year he doesn't perform like Lugo. How does a healthy Kemp JBJ and Victorino profile?

I do think Swihart has a shot to start at catcher by June if everything breaks right. I still think Lester comes back and will continue to believe that until he ends up signing elsewhere.

 
How do you figure this?  It seems most of the Kemp-related rumors are coming out of LAD's camp, trying to find a way to dump him elsewhere.  I am sure there is some level of interest on the part of Cherington and the organization but without a massive subsidy I don't see it happening.  Kemp has enormous negative trade value - LAD will need to eat $40-50M just to get filler prospects in return.  To get something real (ie, Lester), they'd need to basically eat his entire salary.
 
The reasons for being intrigued with Kemp aren't crazy, FWIW.  He's got tremendous talent, his bat has started to bounce back, his swing seems very well-suited for Fenway and his defensive deficiencies could be hidden in left field.  The risk just needs to be mitigated from a dollars perspective to something like $11-12M/year, not the $20M/year he is currently getting.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

The attempt to stock up on positional prospects while sitting on a ton of young pitching is interesting, as it suggests the team is either gearing up for a trade to improve the lineup, is looking to land a big bat prospect or two in these trades, or both. The Peavy trade is a recent bit of evidence against this idea, but all of the rumors are that the Red Sox want a big bat in return for Lester and/or Lackey. So, given the decline of offense across the league and the number of high ceiling pitchers they already have in the system, it makes sense for them to be focusing on rebuilding the lineup. If Lester is asking for more than they are willing to give, they may as well cash him in either for chips toward a hitter, or prospects who might be that next big bat in the lineup.
 
Yes, it's true that you need a very good or better rotation to win in the playoffs, but the idea that you need to have more than one ace is outdated. Going into September last year, the refrain around here was that the team didn't have the pitching to win it all, even after picking up Peavy. Turns out they did. We may be entering an era where the focus needs to be on the lineup before the rotation. If that's true, they may well be gearing up for a run at Stanton and that would go a long way toward setting up the lineup for the future. Napoli and Papi are both probably gone after 2015, but building around Bogaerts and Stanton is a good long term plan.
 
The talk about Heyward is intriguing, but too much can happen between now and the end of 2015 for me to start penciling him in anywhere. For now, I'll hope that the way Lester's departure is playing out is an indication that they are committed to securing a formidable lineup to carry the team through the second half of the decade. They'll need to replace Lester at the top of the rotation, but they have to have some confidence that eventually they will churn out another ace through the farm system. In the short term, a pick up of someone like James Shields can probably keep them in the playoffs over the next few years. If they move both Lester and Lackey, they'll probably need to sign two guys in that range, of course.
Regardless, I'd really like to see a focus on bringing in some big bats.

 
Snodgrass, I'm wondering if there's a way to calculate a simulation that puts 2014 Jon Lester in as a replacement for the Mariners #5 starter. The Mariners have the worst offense in the league. Would Jon Lester have materially changed their current standings? He would only have started something like 22 games so far. Let's assume (optimistically) that he mimics Hernandez, and his record is 11-2. Replace Ramirez, Walker and Maurer (combined 3-11). Would it be at all statistically proper to say Lester would have resulted in 8 more team wins through July? I assume not because Lester is not Hernandez, so I'm guessing maybe 5 more wins...
 
I've been saying that pitching is intuitively more important than hitting, but your points seem to make sense. On a shitty hitting Mariners team, Lester in their rotation may have improved their Wild Card position substantially, but would not have put them over the top. I still think a playoff rotation of Hernandez, Lester, Iwakuma, etc. would be as formidable as any - but not if they lose games 2-1 and 1-0.

 

[jasail]

This thread may not be the best place for this, as its more little picture, but it's probably the best place for it.  Once the dust settles tomorrow and the roster is set for August, what I would really like to see is JF and Butters get this team back to playing fundamentally strong baseball over the last two months. One of the greatest strengths of the 2013 team was that they consistently made the right play and more importantly hardly ever made the bad play. This sure-handedness seemed to breed confidence among the players, particularly the pitching staff, and it made the Sox a very tough team to play. Yes, on the other side of the ball they were very adept at getting on base and scoring runs, but I can hardly remember them giving up the big back breaking inning due to mistakes. I feel like if they can make strides in this regard it will help focus the players and build confidence through the home-stretch, which could carry-over with the younger players next year.  

 

[dcmissle]

So the big picture to me tonight is that they could be on the cusp of the biggest deal of the deadline. With the Pirates. As sellers.

Say that last year at this time -- or almost any time during the last 50 years -- and you'd be civilly committed

Lester/Lackey/Miller seemed joined at the hip in the sense that if the big guy goes, the other two will follow. And then, unless they are a part of a fantastic conspiracy with Ben, the Boston Red Sox almost certainly will have chosen to be irrelevant in 2015.

In my lifetime, there have been poor seasons and bridge seasons. I recall nothing closely resembling this.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Say you're a smart hedge fund type guy in partnership with a well connected TV guy. You look at the season long blockade on the Dodgers sports station. You get the sense that a la carte cable programming is coming. Instead of being able to charge five bucks to every cable customer in the New England area (about 4,000,000 people?) by direct billing the cable companies, you have to go door to door asking for subscriptions. Maybe you end up with about 150,000 fans willing to shell out every month. How does that affect your future valuation of the team, given that you own an 80% stake in the TV station?

 

[Niastri]

Say you're a smart hedge fund type guy in partnership with a well connected TV guy. You look at the season long blockade on the Dodgers sports station. You get the sense that a la carte cable programming is coming. Instead of being able to charge five bucks to every cable customer in the New England area (about 4,000,000 people?) by direct billing the cable companies, you have to go door to door asking for subscriptions. Maybe you end up with about 150,000 fans willing to shell out every month. How does that affect your future valuation of the team, given that you own an 80% stake in the TV station?

 
I am currently in MFY blackout country.  I can't watch any of the games (even if I can pay for NESN) without the extra baseball expense.
 
Ala cart TV means the old bs regional system dies and NESN can be sold to 400 million customers instead of the measly 4 mil that it can be sold to now.
 
Perhaps they think the bet that "1% of all Americans care enough about NESN to pay five bucks" is one that can make them even more money going forward?
 
Getting sort of back on topic:
 
I am curiously not heartbroken about the possible Lester trade.  I expected to be really pissed off about it.  It is kind of like a cynicism meter, I guess.  Or maybe a "how much do you care about the laundry" meter.  If Cherington can get 3+ prospects with legit chances of being stars in the next five years, I think I might not even be disappointed about the trade at all.
 
The Red Sox with their current group of prospects have a very good chance at several young stars developing in the next year or two.  With Bogaerts and Bradley both playing their first full season and showing signs of success, the group of pitchers are next.  If we trade Lester, the players we get in return will join that possible core as a very inexpensive and possibly very good group of players.
It won't be a stretch to pay the Napoli's of the world to fill in around them, even if none of our guys turn into MVP type talents.  Many teams have won championships by putting together a roster filled with above average players.  You don't really need a superstar if everybody is worth 3 WAR.

 

[Rasputin]

Lester/Lackey/Miller seemed joined at the hip in the sense that if the big guy goes, the other two will follow. And then, unless they are a part of a fantastic conspiracy with Ben, the Boston Red Sox almost certainly will have chosen to be irrelevant in 2015.

In my lifetime, there have been poor seasons and bridge seasons. I recall nothing closely resembling this.

There is way too much time before 2015 to have any certainty about whether the Sox are going to be relevant.

If we trade all these guys and the standard for the trade is similar to the Peavy trade, we're going to be getting back a bundle.

That kinda tells me there's going to be some trading done in the off-season and it's the results of those trades that will determine how relevant the team is.

I don't know where the pitching is going to come from, unless they're really ready to stick all the kids out there and see what happens but I just can't see that.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
I am currently in MFY blackout country.  I can't watch any of the games (even if I can pay for NESN) without the extra baseball expense.
 
Ala cart TV means the old bs regional system dies and NESN can be sold to 400 million customers instead of the measly 4 mil that it can be sold to now.
 
Perhaps they think the bet that "1% of all Americans care enough about NESN to pay five bucks" is one that can make them even more money going forward?

About 1% of New England watches NESN on a good night. Best estimates of total MLB.tv subscribers is about 3 million.

 

[Apisith]

This thread will become relevant when we know which prospects we get and how close they are to the majors. If we get Seager or Joc then you're pencilling them into your lineup for next year, right?

Best case is we get an OF and IF prospect and our lineup next year goes something like this:

1B: Napoli
2B: Pedroia
SS: Xander
3B: IF prospect (Seager?)
C: Vasquez and Swihart (who is raking right now)
LF: OF prospect (Polanco?)
RF: Victorino
CF: Bradley
DH: Papi

Bench: Betts, Holt and an IF utility guy. That gives us 13.

12 man staff, with some free agent deals like Shields and Scherzer, especially if we get a protected pick.

How many runs can we score with that lineup? Pedroia needs to be much better, Xander and Bradley will hopefully continue to improve and Victorino needs to be healthy and/or Betts takes the league by storm.

I don't know. Put some probabilities in there and see how likely it is that we get 90 wins. It's going to be a ridiculously young team and it'll be better in '16 than '15, but I reckon we can compete if the pitching staff is good enough.

 

[nattysez]

This thread will become relevant when we know which prospects we get and how close they are to the majors. If we get Seager or Joc then you're pencilling them into your lineup for next year, right?

Best case is we get an OF and IF prospect and our lineup next year goes something like this:

1B: Napoli
2B: Pedroia
SS: Xander
3B: IF prospect (Seager?)
C: Vasquez and Swihart (who is raking right now)
LF: OF prospect (Polanco?)
RF: Victorino
CF: Bradley
DH: Papi

Bench: Betts, Holt and an IF utility guy. That gives us 13.

12 man staff, with some free agent deals like Shields and Scherzer, especially if we get a protected pick.

How many runs can we score with that lineup? Pedroia needs to be much better, Xander and Bradley will hopefully continue to improve and Victorino needs to be healthy and/or Betts takes the league by storm.

I don't know. Put some probabilities in there and see how likely it is that we get 90 wins. It's going to be a ridiculously young team and it'll be better in '16 than '15, but I reckon we can compete if the pitching staff is good enough.

 
Why would the front office offer Scherzer (30 years old) or Shields (32 years old) significant contracts if they won't do that for Lester?
 
Regarding the offense, three years ago, people were assuming the Royals' offense would put the '27 Yankees to shame by this point, with Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler and Wil Myers all raking.  None of those guys has an OPS over .700 this year.  Assuming the best Sox prospects will be able to start raking in the majors next year is very bold. 

 

[Apisith]

 
Why would the front office offer Scherzer (30 years old) or Shields (32 years old) significant contracts if they won't do that for Lester?
 
Regarding the offense, three years ago, people were assuming the Royals' offense would put the '27 Yankees to shame by this point, with Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler and Wil Myers all raking.  None of those guys has an OPS over .700 this year.  Assuming the best Sox prospects will be able to start raking in the majors next year is very bold. 

I'm assuming Shields or Scherzer will be able to be had for shorter deals. Scherzer is the big doubt, but Shields could probably be had for a 3-4 year deal.

And the rest of my post was a best case scenario.

 

[Drek717]

What I would like to see happen:
1. Trade Lester + Ross to St. Louis for Miller, Grichuk, and the comp pick they have.  St. Louis was rumored to be offering Miller, Taveras, and the comp pick for Price, the drop from Taveras to Grichuk is a reasonable value loss from Price to Lester in a strong seller's market.  They've also been very noncommittal to Miller for the last half year plus now, so it wouldn't be surprising if he's available for immediate help.
2. Trade Lackey to Miami for Steve Cishek and Justin Nicolino.  Loria is the guy who wouldn't feel any compunctions about making Lester pitch on a one year deal or threaten to end his career, meanwhile they've likely got to move Cishek by the of the winter as they aren't likely to pay a reliever a healthy arb. raise over the $3.8M he made this year.
3. Trade Miller and Gomes to the Pirates for Alen Hanson and JaCoby Jones.
4. Trade Badenhop for the best low minors prospect offered.
5. Win the bidding on Rusney Castillo at 6 years, $39M.
 
Then in the off-season:
1. Offer Betts, Hanson, Middlebrooks, Nava, Workman, and Margot for Giancarlo Stanton.  I think this is a pretty reasonable offer that checks all the boxes for Miami.  It gives them a young 2B, 3B, and SS all in one package, a temporary cost controlled replacement in the OF, an ML ready young cost controlled starter, and a longer term toolsy OF to shore up that position after so many graduates have come from the farm quickly.
2. Sign the following free agents: Justin Masterson (2 year, $20M deal with 3rd year $15M option), Pablo Sandoval (3 year, $39M deal), Koji Uehara (2 years, $20M), Andrew Miller (3 years, $21M), Geovany Soto (1 year, $5M).
3. Win the bidding on Yasmani Tomas at 6 years, $24M.
 
That gives a 25 man roster of:
 
C - Vazquez
1B - Napoli
2B - Pedroia
3B - Sandoval
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Stanton
CF - Bradley
RF - Victorino
DH - Ortiz
 
Bench: Soto, Holt,Hassan, and Castillo.  Holt is the only SS depth, but with Marrero in AAA that is an acceptable risk.  Castillo offers a CF/RF capable backup as he adapts to the bigs and replaces Vic after 2015.
 
Rotation: Masterson, Buchholz, Miller, De La Rosa, Ranaudo
 
Bullpen:
Uehara, Cishek, Tazawa, Miller, Breslow, Hembree, Webster (Mujica outright released)
 
On the farm they would have:
 
2015 deep depth 
Wright (7th starter depth)
Hernandez (LHRP depth)
Brentz (OF depth)
Cecchini (3B depth, eventual replacement for Sandoval after he repeats AAA, Sandoval moves to 1B/DH or becomes an expensive utility corner IF, but you can afford an expensive utility corner IF if your SS, 3B, and 1B in Shaw are all home grown)
Matt Barnes (converted to a reliever)
 
Future talent in the high minors of note
Owens
Johnson
Nicolino
Escobar
 
That group basically resets the AAA rotation we've had the last season and a half, but 2-3 years younger, so as Masterson and Buchholz age out and RDLR/Ranaudo/Webster fail the depth is already there to replace them.
 
Grichuk and Tomas give two high upside OF prospects at the AAA level ready to step up if Bradley can't improve and/or Castillo is a flop.  Tomas and Castillo are basically a symbiotic signing, assuming that for about $63M you'll hit on one six year controlled stud out of the two.
 
Marrero - future SS if Cecchini and Coyle fail to deliver and Bogaerts needs to move off SS, valuable deadline trade chip of Bogaerts takes over SS long-term in early 2015.
 
Travis Shaw - 1B replacement for Napoli after 2015.
 
Swihart - Replacement for Soto in that he and Vazquez can split catching duties, with Swihart effectively replacing Ortiz at DH in the process to get a full season of ABs when Ortiz gets done after 2015 or 2016.

 

[Rasputin]

So with the Lackey and Lester deals done, we have two offensive pieces to play around with. Let's see if we can get a roster that makes sense hmm?
 
We'll  have Vazquez and some kind of Crash Davis type catching until Swihart is ready, That's two spots.
 
Cespedes, Craig, Ortiz, Napoli between them cover left, first, and DH in some sort of rotation. That's six spots.
 
JBJ in CF, Vic in right, Pedroia at second, that's nine spots.
 
Either Middlebrooks/Bogaerts or Bogaerts/Marrero (or a transition from one to the other) at third/short. That's eleven spots.
 
Holt and Herrera or another UTI makes thirteen spots.
 
I think that could work.
 
A lineup might look like this.
 
Bradley*, CF
Pedroia, 2B
Ortiz*, DH
Napoli, 1B
Cespedes, LF
Victorino, RF
Bogaerts, SS
Middlebrooks, 3B
Vazquez, C
 
And sometimes that's going to be Allen Craig at first or left instead of Cespedes and presumably, a fair amount of Holt in for Vic.
 
I dunno, I think it mostly works, but the dearth of lefties is a little disconcerting. It would help if Vic could go back to being a legitimate switch hitter but I tend to think that's unlikely.

 

[OttoC]

2015 -- AAAA (assuming they don't re-sign Lester).

 

[plucy]

$75-80M to spend. Team needs a top o' rotation starter, most of a bullpen, a catcher.

For Lester or other starter, Uehara and Miller, earmark $40M. Figure $8M more to complete the bullpen (maybe $4M for Breslow's option in this number). A mid rotation guy, $12M.

That leaves $15-20M.

$15M. Mmm... That's Tulo's AAV. And they have the depth to get him w/o touching Bogie.

 

[Stitch01]

Say you're a smart hedge fund type guy in partnership with a well connected TV guy. You look at the season long blockade on the Dodgers sports station. You get the sense that a la carte cable programming is coming. Instead of being able to charge five bucks to every cable customer in the New England area (about 4,000,000 people?) by direct billing the cable companies, you have to go door to door asking for subscriptions. Maybe you end up with about 150,000 fans willing to shell out every month. How does that affect your future valuation of the team, given that you own an 80% stake in the TV station?

They'd just sell the team and NESN if they had conviction this is imminent (it's not)