Borderline HOF QBs Who Has Gone Criminally Underappreciated by the Public

[heavyde050]

Brees is one of the best QBs ever. He's put up unprecedented numbers and granted he's played in a dome and in warm weather cities his entire career, but think about how bad his supporting cast has been. His best weapons of been a few years of Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks. He's never had that great of a running game either. There are also guys like Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Devry Henderson and others who are solid players for New Orleans and scrubs everywhere else. Who has played with Brees and hasn't had their best season while with the Saints? Out of the best QBs of the last 20 years, he has had by far the least help.

Really good post, but if we are only going by offensive help - TB12 has received less help than Brees. But yes Brees did have much less help than the Peyton Manning of the world.

 

[bakahump]

This has to have a domino effect eventually on WRs (whose numbers will go up and dwarf HOF guys like Largent and Monk) and RBs whose numbers will go down.

What about a guy like Chris Johnson for example?

 

[snowmanny]

I would add that this isn't baseball, where by far the number one determinant of HOF electability is regular season numbers. This is football, where regular season numbers probably rank fourth behind reputation, awards/pro bowls, and post-season success. Brees has the ridiculous numbers, but he also has 10 Pro Bowls, 2x Offensive Player of the Year, Super Bowl MVP and I think the reputation as being the number 4 QB amongst his contemporaries (behind sure-fire HOFers Manning, Brady, Rodgers and probably ahead of sure-fire HOfer Roethlisberger).

It's certainly possible that over time analytics drive the conversation in football in a different direction.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Emmitt Smith was 26 when Ezekiel Elliott was born. He could be his father. Matt Ryan and Drew Brees have played head-to-head 16 times. Colin Kaepernick at Age 26, had 5,046 passing yards, and 31 TD. Drew Bledsoe? Name me the other contemporary quarterbacks to Drew Bledsoe who could also be projected to pass Marino at age 28? I'll give you two: Daunte Culpepper and Brett Favre.

Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, and Matt Ryan.

You're going to keep referring to Blake Bortles from that list? You got me, I don't think Blake Bortles is the best quarterback in that group, and he won't break any records set by Drew Brees. I'm sure there was a much better way to have done the projections.

I'd rather discuss borderline Hall of Fame quarterbacks, I can agree to disagree with you on this.

I'm still having trouble understanding what Elliot's age compared to Smith's has to do with anything. Are you trying to make the point of how offensive strategies have changed and RBs are less relied on? I'm honestly asking, because I don't know what your point is.

The point of bringing up Elliot and Bortles is that if you take any number of successful young players and project them out to have the same number of seasons as career leaders, they will look like they will surpass them. Except they almost always don't, for a variety of reasons.

As to your list, I don't see any of those guys breaking Brees' records. Ryan has improved, but he's already getting old and last year seems like an outlier, maybe he'll sustain maybe he won't. Luck seems to be injury prone. Stafford has the youth age, but with his shitty mechanics, I don't see him being one to be able play long enough. The other guys are nothing special and certainly not Drew Brees, imo. Citing Bortles specifically is just to point out that projections are somewhat meaningless, not that I'm suggesting you think he's the best of the bunch. As I've been told repeatedly in the JG thread, QBs fall off a cliff. And those are the good ones. Ymmv.

It's cool to 'agree to disagree' but there's also no reason not to be able to have a discussion about it. Threads like this don't need to stay 100% on topic and can often spawn new discussions during an otherwise boring time for football talk. If the mods think it's derailing the thread they will split it out. If you're done with the subject, that's cool too.

 

[lexrageorge]

I can only see one scenario where Brees does not make it in the very first ballot: Brees retires the same year as Brady, Ben, Rivers, Eli, and possibly Rodgers. Unlikely to happen. But if it did there could (not saying "will") be enough vote splitting among the non-Brady votes that Brees ends up just short somehow. It's more probably than not that this scenario does not happen.

 

[Reverend]

I'm still having trouble understanding what Elliot's age compared to Smith's has to do with anything. Are you trying to make the point of how offensive strategies have changed and RBs are less relied on? I'm honestly asking, because I don't know what your point is.

The point of bringing up Elliot and Bortles is that if you take any number of successful young players and project them out to have the same number of seasons as career leaders, they will look like they will surpass them. Except they almost always don't, for a variety of reasons.

As to your list, I don't see any of those guys breaking Brees' records. Ryan has improved, but he's already getting old and last year seems like an outlier, maybe he'll sustain maybe he won't. Luck seems to be injury prone. Stafford has the youth age, but with his shitty mechanics, I don't see him being one to be able play long enough. The other guys are nothing special and certainly not Drew Brees, imo. Citing Bortles specifically is just to point out that projections are somewhat meaningless, not that I'm suggesting you think he's the best of the bunch. As I've been told repeatedly in the JG thread, QBs fall off a cliff. And those are the good ones. Ymmv.

It's cool to 'agree to disagree' but there's also no reason not to be able to have a discussion about it. Threads like this don't need to stay 100% on topic and can often spawn new discussions during an otherwise boring time for football talk. If the mods think it's derailing the thread they will split it out. If you're done with the subject, that's cool too.

Holy crap, please, just stop.

This board does not need another thread where you seem to think the main subject is everyone understanding and getting correctly your position on a matter at the expense of and even exclusion of the subject matter itself.

This is happening all over the board and it needs to stop. This is not your damn blog.

YMMV

 

[Kliq]

Really good post, but if we are only going by offensive help - TB12 has received less help than Brees. But yes Brees did have much less help than the Peyton Manning of the world.

Brady has at times played with one of the best WRs, TEs and head coaches in history. I don't really think Brady has had less help then Brees, his best options over the years have been Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman, Hernandez, Branch, Faulk. I'd rather have those guys than Graham, Colston, Joe Horn, Sproles, Cooks.

 

[Saints Rest]

I would add that this isn't baseball, where by far the number one determinant of HOF electability is regular season numbers. This is football, where regular season numbers probably rank fourth behind reputation, awards/pro bowls, and post-season success. Brees has the ridiculous numbers, but he also has 10 Pro Bowls, 2x Offensive Player of the Year, Super Bowl MVP and I think the reputation as being the number 4 QB amongst his contemporaries (behind sure-fire HOFers Manning, Brady, Rodgers and probably ahead of sure-fire HOfer Roethlisberger).

It's certainly possible that over time analytics drive the conversation in football in a different direction.

And to add to Brees' candidacy, and as a direct response to the post up thread about Terrell Owens last year, Brees has always been seen as a pillar in the community, especially in the context of post-Katrina NO, a stand-up teammate, a model father (him hoisting his son to his shoulders post-Super Bowl), and a model interview.

 

[heavyde050]

Brady has at times played with one of the best WRs, TEs and head coaches in history. I don't really think Brady has had less help then Brees, his best options over the years have been Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman, Hernandez, Branch, Faulk. I'd rather have those guys than Graham, Colston, Joe Horn, Sproles, Cooks.

Brees is great and a first ballot HOF, but I will disagree with you on the offensive weapons over their entire careers (Brady made due with much lesser weapons pre-2007).

 

[Curt S Loew]

Brady has at times played with one of the best WRs, TEs and head coaches in history. I don't really think Brady has had less help then Brees, his best options over the years have been Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman, Hernandez, Branch, Faulk. I'd rather have those guys than Graham, Colston, Joe Horn, Sproles, Cooks.

Brees is great and a first ballot HOF, but I will disagree with you on the offensive weapons over their entire careers (Brady made due with much lesser weapons pre-2007).

The majority of players he listed were 2007 to today. Those ten years count too.

 

[heavyde050]

The majority of players he listed were 2007 to today. Those ten years count too.

I know they count. I am of the (most likely biased) opinion that TB12 has done more with less than QB in his generation.
Maybe it is more a function of the Saints being so bad on defense and throwing all the time - but to me it has always seemed that Brees has had more weapons than Brady - but a lot less than other guys.
I mean the Pats just gave up a first round pick to get one of Brees' inferior weapons.
I don't want to keep the thread off-topic anymore.
Brees is a slam dunk first ballot hall of famer and one of the best to ever play the position.

 

[BaseballJones]

Brees and Roethlisberger shouldn't be on any list of "Borderline HOF QBs Who Has Gone Criminally Underappreciated by the Public" because there's nothing "borderline" about their HOF chances. I think Eli is a slam dunk too, though some people here disagree.

Another name that maybe was mentioned (but I didn't notice that he was) that might better fit this category is Dave Krieg.

- 19th all time in passing yards (ahead of Aikman, Simms, Young, Anderson, Esiason)
- 17th all time in passing TD (ahead of Fouts, Bledsoe, Kelly, McNabb, Young, Bradshaw, Esiason, Anderson)
- 55th all time in passer rating (now take the context in which he played into consideration.... ahead of Esiason, Moon, Starr, Tarkenton, Fouts, Elway, Simms, Unitas, Theismann)
- Career W/L record of 98-77
- Career TD/INT mark of 261/199
- 3 time pro-bowler

Not in the HOF and never will be, but he had a terrific NFL career, and he finished fairly high in the NFL rankings in some key passing stats compared to some other guys in the HOF (or borderline HOF guys). Pretty solid winner too.

 

[bakahump]

Yabut, he fumbled all the time! LOL

Funny 30ish years since his heyday and I still recall that seemingly every time I watched him the commented on his "small hands that leads to his fumbling."

 

[DanoooME]

Brees and Roethlisberger shouldn't be on any list of "Borderline HOF QBs Who Has Gone Criminally Underappreciated by the Public" because there's nothing "borderline" about their HOF chances. I think Eli is a slam dunk too, though some people here disagree.

Another name that maybe was mentioned (but I didn't notice that he was) that might better fit this category is Dave Krieg.

- 19th all time in passing yards (ahead of Aikman, Simms, Young, Anderson, Esiason)
- 17th all time in passing TD (ahead of Fouts, Bledsoe, Kelly, McNabb, Young, Bradshaw, Esiason, Anderson)
- 55th all time in passer rating (now take the context in which he played into consideration.... ahead of Esiason, Moon, Starr, Tarkenton, Fouts, Elway, Simms, Unitas, Theismann)
- Career W/L record of 98-77
- Career TD/INT mark of 261/199
- 3 time pro-bowler

Not in the HOF and never will be, but he had a terrific NFL career, and he finished fairly high in the NFL rankings in some key passing stats compared to some other guys in the HOF (or borderline HOF guys). Pretty solid winner too.

Funny, as a Seahawks fan since almost the beginning, I always thought of him as the perfect backup QB, because he only seemed to be good enough for 8 games a year. Yet his numbers are eerily similar to Matt Hasselbeck's and I'd say there's a huge gap in the perceptions of the two.

Of course, when you are a part of a franchise where a guy who's only played 5 seasons is already your franchise's all time best QB (Wilson), and the top 10 in passing yardage includes such luminaries as Rick Mirer (5th), the corpse of Warren Moon (7th), Seneca Wallace, Tarvaris Jackson and John Friesz, you wouldn't think it doesn't take much to be underappreciated, even amongst your own fans. In my case, a lot of it has to do with irrational love of Jim Zorn (and his horrendous career numbers) and the way he was relpaced by Krieg. And the fumbles didn't help.

 

[Michelle34B]

I'm sure i have forgotten a few, but here is a picture of the upcoming hall of fame classes for quarterbacks and all positions. I tried to list the current players by their order/likelihood of entering the hall of fame. Earl Thomas is so high because there is only Brian Dawkins, John Lynch, Steve Atwater, Darren Woodson, Adrian Wilson, Ed Reed, and Troy Polamalu in front of him. The well-known logjam at WR places Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown, and A.J. Green lower on the list.

The 2017 HOF quarterback nominees.

Phil Simms: HOF eligible since 1999. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist. In 2019, 25 years after retirement, Simms will be eligible for consideration for the senior committee finalist spot. This year it was Kenny Easley.
Randall Cunningham: HOF eligible since 2007. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist.
Doug Flutie: HOF eligible since 2011. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist.
Drew Bledsoe: HOF eligible since 2012. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist.
Steve McNair: HOF eligible since 2013. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist.
Donovan McNabb: HOF eligible since 2017. Was not a semifinalist or finalist.

Quarterbacks eligible for Seniors Committee nomination (retired over 25 years):
Ken Anderson
John Brodie
John Hadl
Jim Hart
Brian Sipe
Joe Theismann
Phil Simms(eligible in 2019)
Boomer Esiason(eligible in 2023)

2017 Hall of Fame nominees to make it to the semifinal round

Steve Atwater
Roger Craig
Chris Hinton
Torry Holt
Edgerrin James
Jimmy Johnson
Mike Kenn
Ty Law
Clay Matthews (Sr.)
Karl Mecklenburg
Hines Ward
Darren Woodson

2017 finalists that were not selected.

Brian Dawkins
Don Coryell
Isaac Bruce
Terrell Owens
Tony Boselli
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
Ty Law
John Lynch
Kevin Mawae

Players eligible for the HOF class of 2018:
Ray Lewis
Randy Moss
Steve Hutchinson
Brian Urlacher
Richard Seymour
Ronde Barber
Jeff Saturday
Matt Birk
Donald Driver
Adrian Wilson

Players eligible for the HOF class of 2019:
Ed Reed
Champ Bailey
Tony Gonzalez
Brian Waters

Players eligible for the HOF class of 2020:
Patrick Willis
Troy Polamalu
Lance Briggs
Reggie Wayne

Players eligible for the HOF class of 2021:
Peyton Manning
Charles Woodson
Calvin Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Jared Allen
Logan Mankins
D'Brickshaw Ferguson
Greg Jennings
Charles Tillman
Rashean Mathis

Players eligible for the HOF class of 2022:
DeMarcus Ware
Steve Smith Sr.
Andre Johnson

Current players with a excellent chance of making the HOF:
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
J.J. Watt
Joe Thomas
Adrian Peterson
Earl Thomas
Darelle Revis
Jason Witten
Ben Roethlisberger
Larry Fitzgerald
Russell Wilson
Richard Sherman
Julius Peppers
Terrell Suggs
James Harrison
Clay Matthews
Antonio Brown
Luke Kuechly
A.J. Green
Von Miller
Eli Manning
Adam Vinatieri
Ndamukong Suh
Rob Gronkowski
Cam Newton
Antonio Gates
Patrick Peterson
Devin Hester
Odell Beckham Jr.

 

[InstaFace]

Wow, epic post Michelle. Even if I might call some of the final group "way too early".

I expect Belichick will attend Ed Reed's induction in person, with his entire coaching staff in tow.