Tomorrow, when he’s slated to piggyback Sale?When the Sox got Eovaldi they envisioned him in the pen in the playoffs. Haven't heard much since then. Obviously he's not a top-four starter, but if he has something to offer in relief, I wonder when the Sox are going to transition him to that? I guess he's pitched out of the pen enough so that it would only take a couple appearances and he'd be comfortable there again? Or maybe none, just have him stay stretched out and move him for the ALDS? That sounds a bit risky to me.
Yeah, I think we'll see Cora evaluate Eovaldi's bullpen ability over the last weeks. Maybe two turns of piggy-backing Sale's intentionally short starts followed by a couple of back to back "regular" relief stints over the last 10 games or so. Or maybe Cora shortens one of he piggy-backs so that Eovaldi is available for an inning before the next one.Tomorrow, when he’s slated to piggyback Sale?
And I predict you can add a 7.0 after tonight (just a hunch). I don't have time to do it but I would bet that despite this run of short starts, the usage numbers aren't that much different from earlier this year when the starters went much further into games for each of the individual relievers since the majority of that run has been since rosters expanded and because the plethora of days off.Here are IP by the starting pitcher, going back in time from yesterday to the first game of the Rays series:
5.2, 3.1, 6.1, 4.0, 5.0, 3.1, 1.1, 5.2, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.1, 4.0, 5.0, 2.2.
15 games, exactly one time where the starter made it through the 6th, and only six where the starter completed the 5th. Of those six times, four were Porcello, one was Price, and one was EdRo.
I doubt there has ever been a bullpen that looked good when it had to cover this many innings. It's natural to complain about the bullpen because a reliever has been on the mound when many of the bad things have happened, but the reason why the relievers are overexposed is that the starting pitchers haven't been able to get enough outs.
At least in the playoffs, pitchers like Eovaldi, Johnson, and Velazquez, who started during the last 15 games but collectively failed to go 5 every single time, shouldn't be starting anymore.
If starters are getting pulled in the fifth or earlier in the majority of playoff games, there won't be very many playoff games. I'm not even confident if the bullpen needs to cover 4 innings per game during October, but that's more on the starters than on the bullpen.
Yes real. .240 isn’t horrible, is it? .154 is excellent.Red Sox don't have a situational LHR.
Best I can tell, here's the ranking of potential middle relievers against LHH (best to worst)
Poyner (SSS) - not sure it's meaningful
Kelly (.194 BAA)
Workman (.196)
Hembree (.203)
Barnes (.224)
Brasier is down there at .240
With 3 left-handed starters, most teams will be stacked RHH to start the game, so handedness is not a big thing first guy out of the pen.
Then managers will start selectively throwing LHH's against the Red Sox, and will continue that way through the end of the game.
How would you handle the pen in that predictable situation?
(Aside: They have 3 RP's below .240 against RHH): Braiser, Barnes and Wright)
I'm thinking Poyner beats out Pomeranz for a spot and comes in for one or two outs with men on base. Oh boy.
Then it's Kelly, Barnes and Kimbrel.
Are Brasier's splits real? (.240 vs LHH and .154 vs RHH)? If so - how would you use him in a game?
In theory, I'd agree with you... but I think it'll have (hopefully) a lot to do with who has the hot hand. Over the last month, Kelly has been significantly better than Barnes so if that trend continues after (if) Barnes returns, then the inverse in your post is what I'd be hoping forIf Barnes can come back rested and healthy, then he can potentially provide an enormous lift.
A high-lev combination of Kimbrel, Brasier, Barnes, Wright with Poyner serving as LOOGY may be enough to bring us home.
This pushes Kelly, Hembree and Workman into lower-lev roles, Velazquez, Eovaldi and Thornburg on the bubble...and turns Pomeranz into an unsigned spring training invitee for some NL also-ran
After that amazing start, he has a 5.86 ERA since June 1. He should be demoted to 6th inning/mopup duty at least until they clinch home field. If he gets hot again, maybe he makes the playoff roster. If not, that might be all she wrote. I really can't picture the team competing for his services in 2019.Joe Kelly today, throwing 15 pitches, had nearly as many that hit a batter (2) as hit the strike zone (3).
Remember early in the season when people were proposing that the Sox let Kimbrel walk and sign Kelly to close going forward? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that even if A happens, B seems..unlikely.After that amazing start, he has a 5.86 ERA since June 1. He should be demoted to 6th inning/mopup duty at least until they clinch home field. If he gets hot again, maybe he makes the playoff roster. If not, that might be all she wrote. I really can't picture the team competing for his services in 2019.
Yeah.... I was one of them. I said that before I had coffee and I was still drunkRemember early in the season when people were proposing that the Sox let Kimbrel walk and sign Kelly to close going forward? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that even if A happens, B seems..unlikely.
He’s Kyle Farnsworth. No logical explanation.I want to know what broke on Kelly. Haven't found any speculation.
Guesses:
I wish I knew what the pitching coaches were saying. I wish I knew why the Cardinals gave up on him and why this kid has never met his potential (particularly as a starter).
- Doesn't Hide the Ball
- Fastball Too Straight
- Lack of Control (obviously...but why?)
- Can't Pitch in Cool Weather
- Drunk
I think Wright himself said that it was when he began starting - after 6 relief appearances -- that his knee started acting up (he fell apart in start #4.) Maybe he's all better now so that doesn't matter, but I still think the bullpen needs more of a boost that the top 4 starters do.In his 13 appearances this year that were not followed by an immediate move to the DL, Steven Wright has allowed 5 runs total in 41 2/3 innings for an ERA of 1.08 and a WHIP of 1.11.
Unless there are considerations that his knee benefits from shorter stints, I think he should be #4 starter.
The interview this past week when he revealed he doesn’t have a warm up routine seems like a strong signal for a guy that has always struggled with consistency.I want to know what broke on Kelly. Haven't found any speculation.
Guesses:
I wish I knew what the pitching coaches were saying. I wish I knew why the Cardinals gave up on him and why this kid has never met his potential (particularly as a starter).
- Doesn't Hide the Ball
- Fastball Too Straight
- Lack of Control (obviously...but why?)
- Can't Pitch in Cool Weather
- Drunk
Which one of Porcello or Rodriguez are you bumping out of the postseason rotation?In his 13 appearances this year that were not followed by an immediate move to the DL, Steven Wright has allowed 5 runs total in 41 2/3 innings for an ERA of 1.08 and a WHIP of 1.11.
Unless there are considerations that his knee benefits from shorter stints, I think he should be #4 starter.
It's Cora sending a message to the bullpen as well. Like, we need to figure shit out, cause I'm a little concerned about the bullpen heading into the post season.In his 13 appearances this year that were not followed by an immediate move to the DL, Steven Wright has allowed 5 runs total in 41 2/3 innings for an ERA of 1.08 and a WHIP of 1.11.
Unless there are considerations that his knee benefits from shorter stints, I think he should be #4 starter.
Poyner seems more like smoke and mirrors to me, though if so, it's a pretty well-refined smoke-and-mirrors act. Something about his presentation is seriously deceptive: it seems odd for a two-pitch guy who throws 90 mph to have a 40% O-Swing. However, he does seem to have benefited from some luck: his xBABIP and xOBA are way worse than his real numbers (in Workman's case there's almost no difference).I think I'd prefer Poyner over Workman though. Workman seems like smoke and mirrors.
According to the numbers at Brooks, the velocity drop isn't nearly that big. In 2013 his 4-seamer average velocity was 93.19; this year it's 91.68. Max velocity was 97.03 and now is 95.85.When Workman produced in the playoffs he was sitting at 95, he now sits just over 90.
Interesting, I was going from memory and I sure thought it was a bigger difference than that. I also sure as hell don't recall him hitting 95 this year. Looking at the data that almost 96 was in June his top number lately is barely over 94.According to the numbers at Brooks, the velocity drop isn't nearly that big. In 2013 his 4-seamer average velocity was 93.19; this year it's 91.68. Max velocity was 97.03 and now is 95.85.
Well, I think we can reasonably assume at this point Thornburg won't, so that certainly helps his chances.Interesting, I was going from memory and I sure thought it was a bigger difference than that. I also sure as hell don't recall him hitting 95 this year. Looking at the data that almost 96 was in June his top number lately is barely over 94.
In any event I hope the results stay as good as they have been because it looks like he'll have a post season role.
It won't be sustainable long-term...but for the rest of this season? Given the lack of other options, I'd be willing to roll the dice.He's still got lousy peripherals, though -- 4.51 FIP for the year. He's been living off a .237 BABIP and a 95% LOB%, which may not be sustainable.
That's not how this works.It won't be sustainable long-term...but for the rest of this season? Given the lack of other options, I'd be willing to roll the dice.
You're saying riding the hot hand (especially through the playoffs) isn't a thing?That's not how this works.
If we think he's worse than he has shown so far (and we should, his K/BB numbers are average, his batter ball numbers look pretty ordinary and he's given up more than his share of dingers) then there is no reason to expect him to continue his run of good luck, regardless of the timeframe.
If this were a adjustment he'd made that other teams haven't figure out yet or something, then sure. What we have here looks a lot more like the classic "mediocre pitcher runs ridiculous BABiP and strand rate for 40 innings" story and that's not something that you should bank on continuing for any length of time.
Embree had a WHIP of 1.08 in 2002, 1.18 in 2003 and 1.15 in 2004. He wasn't about riding a hot hand, he was a consistently good pitcher.You're saying riding the hot hand (especially through the playoffs) isn't a thing?
I've got Alan Embree on line 2 whenever you're ready.
Secondly, great job glossing over the "given the lack of other options" part of that post which gave everything following it the necessary context.
Okay, bad example. Point still stands. Sometimes guys just get it done for a season (or a large portion of one, see Velazquez, 1st half) and there's no statistical explanation for it.Embree had a WHIP of 1.08 in 2002, 1.18 in 2003 and 1.15 in 2004. He wasn't about riding a hot hand, he was a consistently good pitcher.
During the regular season 2013, Workman had an ERA of 4.97 and a WHIP of 1.42. Then in the playoffs, he had an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.15.Okay, bad example. Point still stands. Sometimes guys just get it done for a season (or a large portion of one, see Velazquez, 1st half) and there's no statistical explanation for it.
Once again, if you don't trust Workman that much, who do you? Mr. Consistency Joe Kelly? Scott? Poyner? Thornburg?
It's not like we're choosing between him and '07 Okajima as primary setup guys.
It also helps when the team has basically wrapped up the division by Labor DayI really appreciate what Cora has done with the bullpen down the stretch. Everybody is auditioning for their postseason role. A more conventional manager would probably have penciled in Hembree and Kelly based on their overall positive contributions this year. But I think those guys are on the bubble, whereas more marginal guys like Poyner and Workman are also getting bubble status. As much as it sucks for a reliever with 50+ decent innings to get left off the roster it really depends on what you can give at the end of the season. And ironically those 50+ innings might be a direct cause of your being unable to make it.
I can say that Pomeranz is almost certainly out, right?
I'd like to think so, because he seems clearly broken in a way that will take more than a few weeks to fix, but I've gotten used to being surprised by the way teams privilege past track record/pecking order status over current effectiveness in situations like this.I can say that Pomeranz is almost certainly out, right?
Very valid question. Seems like every day a new guy chokes (often after a fairly successful stretch so you kinda trust him). Cora has an impossible job of trying to figure out which mediocre pitcher can get a few outs any given night.Serious question: is there even one pitcher to trust to get the ball to Kimbrel in a close game? Everyone that Cora tries fails.