I believe a new NBA TV deal kicks in after 2024-25. The CAP should see a sizeable kink by then. Brad may be thinking about contracts going through 2025 at today's dollars
Brad Stevens: President of Basketball Ops
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Or maybe he realizes how good he has it in Boston and understands that a 4 year $30M deal sets him up for life as well as the best possible career. Who knows.
Dray keeps saying that Marcus got a max extension and he didn't.
As for the Horford move, was there anyone questioning this? I mean you and others on this board and on podcasts was talking about that trade for months before it happened.
Grant is likely looking at 4/40 as a base, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Celtics give him 4/44 this offseason. Those were the numbers thrown around on a podcast I heard recently.
Like benhogan said above, the new CBA will be taken into account. Chances are 12 a year will be the non tax payers MLE by then.
Like benhogan said above, the new CBA will be taken into account. Chances are 12 a year will be the non tax payers MLE by then.
Last edited:
In a world where Daniel Theis signed a 4/$35.6 and the standard MLE next year will be just over $10M, I think 4/$36 is light but it's hard to tell whether someone like Grant really sees a difference between $36M and the $7.3M he's already made or the $11.7M he will have made by the end of his rookie contract.
I think if GW will be more likely sign an extension before the start of next year than at the end of next year as if he gets to RFA, I would think some team with cap space will take a flier on him.
If they offer him enough as an RFA for the Celtics to decline to match, that will probably be an overpay.
Agree with all of this. 4/40 just looks like the obvious deal. Grants very valuable but it really seems like Boston is the perfect place for him.
4/40 seems like kind of a hedge where it acknowledges his growth as a player but also that Boston really is an environment that helps him to play to his strengths
yea, a few of us have been kicking around Grant extension numbers for a few months, guessing slightly below TL's deal (4/$48M)
A 40% 3pt shooter who can guard KD on the perimeter is valuable. He's trending towards PJ Tucker and drifting into Jae Crowder territory. I expect Horford/Grant will split Giannis responsibility (w/a lot of help) in the next series. If Grant has another good defensive series, Brad/Wyc will have to splurge.
A number of people were saying that it was a salary dump and Al wouldn't play. I think Draymond's point was less the trade than that they made Al a starter, stuck with 2 bigs (that was VERY controversial).
Yea you're right. Kemba/Horford was telegraphed everywhere as an option for months last season. It was a Kemba dump for a well-rested & efficient OKC Horford. No brainer. There was little to no resistance around the Cellar other than a few Kemba=PointZ stragglers, but even they had enough of his balky knee & floating D
I think DRAY was impressed with Brad's speed/decisiveness. PBS knew exactly what he wanted to do out of the gate: IME, Al trade, Kemba out, TL extended, Smart extended, TT out, JRich TPE/extended, DS on the cheap. JAYs team.
Then the trade deadline upheaval even though the team was playing better was once again very decisive.
PBS made a very clear decision to sell offense/buy defense at every juncture, I imagine Draymond Green of all people loved that.
IMO DAR hedged the last few seasons (Danny blasphemy
)
I'd be inclined to give IME full credit for the very controversial 2 Bigs approach. I'm sure Brad was aware, but it was IME's call.
I don't recall anyone saying Al "wouldn't play" after he played well in OKC and was well rested. In fact, most of us wanted him spared a lot of PT (by playing with TL) because we thought his minutes were valuable
Not here, but national media certainly didn't seem to think he was going to play much, which is what Draymond was talking about.... unless he secretly lurks here
I would fist-pump if he extended at 4/44, and would probably be ok up to 4/55. This is because Grant is good and can get better, but also because that will be a relatively small % of the cap.
Every now and then a good post that gives you something to think about gets lost in the shuffle. This one is an example.
What do the final four teams in the 2022 NBA playoffs have in common?
Defense. Boston, Heat, GSW, and Dallas all in the Top7 in defensive efficiency.
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season
Extra credit to PBS for relentlessly trading offensive players for defensive players at every turn.
Not only did Boston have the best DEFENSIVE rating in the NBA, they have the best OFFENSIVE rating of the 4 left
Defense. Boston, Heat, GSW, and Dallas all in the Top7 in defensive efficiency.
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season
Extra credit to PBS for relentlessly trading offensive players for defensive players at every turn.
Not only did Boston have the best DEFENSIVE rating in the NBA, they have the best OFFENSIVE rating of the 4 left
Being a team that veteran ring-chasers will want to sign with is a big deal.
True, but I think a contending team needs to be really selective on that front, or else runs the risk of ending up with a shitty culture and a fractured locker room.
Adding PJ Brown for the stretch run is one thing. Adding a bunch of has-been, as the Lakers did, is a recipe for disaster.
Depending on how this season ends, Brad will have some real decisions to make in the offseason.
He doesn't have to decide whether to keep Tatum and Brown - that decision has been made.
But he does have to make a decision on whether to go with the current formula, which I'll call "Tatum+Brown+Defense" (TBD).
If Brad thinks TBD will get it done, then his offseason plans are pretty straightforward: run it back, maybe try to tinker at the margins to add a veteran rotation 3&D player seeking a title. He can count on improvement and growing into their roles from Tatum, Brown, and the other young players to make the team better and to offset any age-related decline from Horford. Bring Horford back as a veteran leader. Sign Grant if you can because this core will stay intact for a while. Get to work on an Al succession plan.
However, if Brad thinks TBD will not get it done, either because of how he reads the league or because of how he reads T and B, then his offseason becomes much harder and his focus needs to be on adding a third star or assets that can be part of a deal for one. Suddenly, looking to move Al to a contender might make sense. Some harder questions will need to be asked about Rob (just health related in his case), Grant, White, Pritchard. Trying to add a third star might undermine the D in TBD depend on who that player is (if one can be found) and on what assests need to go to make room.
I think almost all of the considerations here weigh in favor of the run it back approach. But the shakiness the Celtics and their 2 stars have shown thus far in the Miami/Milwaukee series' makes me wonder whether a two star approach is viable.
He doesn't have to decide whether to keep Tatum and Brown - that decision has been made.
But he does have to make a decision on whether to go with the current formula, which I'll call "Tatum+Brown+Defense" (TBD).
If Brad thinks TBD will get it done, then his offseason plans are pretty straightforward: run it back, maybe try to tinker at the margins to add a veteran rotation 3&D player seeking a title. He can count on improvement and growing into their roles from Tatum, Brown, and the other young players to make the team better and to offset any age-related decline from Horford. Bring Horford back as a veteran leader. Sign Grant if you can because this core will stay intact for a while. Get to work on an Al succession plan.
However, if Brad thinks TBD will not get it done, either because of how he reads the league or because of how he reads T and B, then his offseason becomes much harder and his focus needs to be on adding a third star or assets that can be part of a deal for one. Suddenly, looking to move Al to a contender might make sense. Some harder questions will need to be asked about Rob (just health related in his case), Grant, White, Pritchard. Trying to add a third star might undermine the D in TBD depend on who that player is (if one can be found) and on what assests need to go to make room.
I think almost all of the considerations here weigh in favor of the run it back approach. But the shakiness the Celtics and their 2 stars have shown thus far in the Miami/Milwaukee series' makes me wonder whether a two star approach is viable.
Interesting question. Isn’t there a very long history—bordering on NBA orthodoxy—that teams led by young stars have to “learn” how to win, a process that by definition involves ups and downs and bumps in the road? I think, if anything, the Celtics have shown a lot of resolve in their first real postseason where they were “supposed” to be winning. I’d be shocked if Brad interprets the results of this postseason, no matter what happens from here on out, as anything but validation of his current approach.
EDIT:For some reason I wrote “offseason” twice instead of “postseason.” Fixed that.
Last edited:
Agreed, all signs point to a "run it back approach".
Over the last 40 games of the regular season, the Celtics had the #1 offensive rating and #1 defensive rating in the NBA by a mile. IME and his staff did a fantastic job getting them to adjust to the .5 offense and playing switchy D. IME outlined this approach in his opening presser and many of the NBA intelligentsia snickered. Brad/IME will continue to look to add defense-first/ ball-movers. See Horford deal, White deal, Theis deal for proof. That provides clues on who they may look to add next season. For bench depth Delon Wright and Kyle Anderson are interesting (IME coached both before) on cheap deals.
Boston swept the Nets in the playoffs. They beat the defending champs and are in a dogfight with Miami. This season has been nothing short of a huge success and they should continue to get improvement from the young players. If Boston loses to Miami, some disappointment yea but still a massive success. Brad will then have to make a call on Horford by January. I'm hoping they can keep Al in some form. BUT PBS will have many options since they own all their picks, have a good back-up 4 in Grant and a solid bench 5 in Theis.
Smart and/or TL, probably qualify as "Third Stars" in Brad/IME's mind even though they don't score like Bradley Beal. FWIW Pat Bev felt Marcus Smart and Jaylen were 2A and 2B to Tatum.
This franchise is in great shape going forward, I wouldn't trade this roster/contracts with any other and it's not particularly close.
There is. But there is also a reasonably long history/orthodoxy of winning with a "big 3." Bird/Parish/McHale. Pierce/Garnett/Allen. James/Wade/Bosh. In recent years maybe more Big 2s, but Big 3s have been a thing for a while..
But aren't the Jordan/Pippen Bulls the closest historical comp for what the Celtics are trying to build? That's the epitome of "2 stars + D". More specifically, it's the closest comp to the C's trajectory of developing a pair of awesome two-way wings with athleticism, letting them learn to play together, then surrounding them with the pieces they need. I know people are skittish to go there, since that pairing happened to involve the GOAT, and so doesn't seem replicable. But, at the same time, those guys were regularly having their asses handed to them in the playoffs by the Pistons when they were 24, 25 before they took it to a higher level.
My underlying point is, it's a really young team, with a rookie coach. I think it's too early to assume that the shaky moments are a fatal flaw rather than a matter of reps.
The Celtics are, without a shadow of a doubt, in fantastic shape moving forward regardless. However, I still do wonder if this is the ideal roster construction, even with all the second half success. In particular, I wonder about Jaylen Brown's fit on this roster on the offensive side of the ball. He really sucks the life out of the flow the Celtics want to achieve, and I don't think he's a consistent enough scorer to justify the deviation from the goal, especially when you factor in the turnovers.
Jaylen has great value in terms of his contract and reputation around the league, and I think I'd look to take advantage of it if there's a fit. What if you could replace him on the roster with, say, LaMelo? I like that roster contruction better, particularly once you find a quality, defense-first ball mover for Brown's spot. It's not something to force, clearly the Celtics are extremely competitive with Brown and capable of winning a championship, but I would still look to improve the roster and I wouldn't be afraid of breaking it up if the return/fit was right.
I have the same question but probably a different solution. It is clear that they’ll need a switchable defender but I’d love it if the foil to Tatum were more capable of breaking down a defense with his dribble while still being a capable scorer. Tatum can blow awfully cold sometimes and Brown has games where he covers that slack. Butler would have been fantastic as a partner to Tatum, I think. But two way wings who can really defend and dribble are rare and don’t move. It would have to be quite an opportunity to find someone who makes the team better than Jaylen does.
LaMelo is damaged goods right now with his knee not responding so he’s untradeable. I was on the blow it up train earlier in the year so hopefully my words will taste good in a couple weeks but always recognized that it’s hard to trade stars as you almost always receive less than full value in return.
The best option would have been if someone like a Jalen Brunson was a tier higher as a player and a sign-n-trade made in exchange for a max deal locking him up for 4 years but that player isn’t out there from what I see. With the success we’ve achieved over the second half of the season I’m fine running this back with minor tweaks. Next year will be interesting with Begarin in Boston to see what he can contribute and how far away he is from being a significant contributor.
Plus Butler is 32. The Celts are set up for a great run here. Not sure that Butler would be the best solution from an age / wear & tear perspective.
Butler also likes to be the alpha and may not be happy being second fiddle. I think Jaylen is a great complement and expect his handle to get better. The best thing about Tatum and Brown is that they get better every year and are easy to root for. Is he perfect, no, but he is great with all the other talent on this team.
No he would be an awful swap for Jaylen. The core leadership of this team is in place with Tatum, Smart, and Horford. White has quickly blended in as has TL. Anyone brought in would be a vet min guy or if it’s an impact player for Jaylen you’d want him to be on the younger side to fit our window. The second half of this year has given us hope of Jaylen being that Pippen/Worthy/McHale/prime-Klay type of guy long term. It does seem to fit his personality as well. Either way we are in great shape.
It may be a "grass is greener" situation. Who could you get that creates offense like JB?
The C's have a bunch of really nice role players but not many score first offensive initiators outside of the JAYs. Can Jaylen's handle get tighter, ball security get stronger, and distribution improve? Can his defense improve? He is only 25.5 and I'm confident IME & his staff can get more/better out of Jaylen going forward. I don't think he's finished improving, so I'd hang on to JB tightly.
The Jaylen trades that were kicked around in December when things looked bad were:
Murray/Keldon Johnson
Haliburton/Barnes (pre Sabonis deal)
The addition of Derrick White changed the roster dynamic going forward. They don't really need a ball-handler with Smart/White signed long term (and PP is looking better by the week)
You make some valid points, selling high should always be considered BUT the Jaylenites won't take this lying down. I'll just get out the popcorn and watch the Celtic fan crime on crime proceed
Oooops that’s what I get for discussing trades when we are in the EC Finals!!!
Oh I would swap Jaylen for LaMelo in a cocaine heartbeat but zero chance that Charlotte agrees. He’s Tatum-level special.
If your going to move Jaylen I am moving him for someone like Donovan Mitchell who can handle the ball and score.
Yeah I did a double take as well.
Pretty sure Lonzo is in danger of headed the way of Kemba. Not Lamelo.
Why would you want to grade a young, about-to-be-in-his-prime guy who can credibly guard all 5 positions AND shoots 38% from 3P AND who can finish AND can shoot a mid-range shot AND is on a great contract for
(1) a guy who doesn't really play defense by all accounts or
(2) a 32 year old max player who doesn't shoot 3Ps?
We get it. JB has warts. But he's a damn good player. As far as #2 stars go, which #2 on another team would you rather have than JB? Middleton? JB plays better defense. Maybe Bam, but MIA's not trading him. Maybe JJJ. But there's not many and the other thing is JB isn't a max player either.
Long, athletic two-way wings are the most valuable asset in basketball. Particularly those who get better every year. You don't trade JB just because he's not a great playmaker. Yet.
I would not be looking to move Jaylen. He's good at a lot of things and has improved markedly this season. And we are only at the beginning of the Ime and only 4 months in to the team being able to run his stuff with consistent success. Brown has bailed the Celtics out a bunch of times in this run. I doubt there is a Brown deal out there that we would like, unless maybe Sacramento wants him (and has someone we'd want).
BTW, Brad purposefully saved the Fournier $17+M trade exception instead of extending it in smaller pieces. It will be interesting to see who he adds with that trade exception. He could get a really nice piece with that salary slot.
$17.1MM (#76 players and below) trade exception good until mid July'22
https://hoopshype.com/salaries/players/
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/08/what-can-celtics-do-with-evan-fournier-trade-exception.html
I'd be shocked if they use the exception in full unless there is a corresponding salary dump (maybe Theis or White?). This ownership has not been what I'd call free spending, and even without the $17 million they are set to be like $7 million into the tax next season. I don't think they'll meaningfully add to their salary.
There's a pretty short list of players that you could get with the $17.1M trade exception but could not get with an $11.6M trade exception (which would have been created if they had taken White into the Fournier exception). I wonder if Brad has anyone specific in mind (KO?)? Would be super funny if they got Fultz just to troll the 76ers.
$15,650,000 | |
$15,678,571 | |
$15,517,242 | |
$15,428,880 | |
$16,500,000 | |
$15,690,909 | |
$15,627,907 | |
$16,000,000 | |
$14,491,964 | |
$14,000,000 | |
$13,445,120 | |
$4,253,357 | |
$15,625,000 | |
$13,666,667 | |
$6,920,027 | |
$13,038,862 | |
$13,302,325 | |
$13,750,000 | |
$13,347,727 | |
$10,733,400 | |
$12,420,000 | |
$14,320,987 | |
$13,000,000 | |
$12,000,000 | |
$12,195,122 | |
$12,000,000 | |
$4,000,000 | |
$12,975,471 | |
$11,615,328 | |
$12,026,998 |
I think you're missing Jonathan Isaac who has a $17,400,000 cap hit, but is only guaranteed $16,000,000. The Magic have the top pick in a draft loaded with fours and fives.
Maybe but if that was the plan, it seems weird to me that they didn't take White into the Fournier exception and create a $11.6M exception that lasts until 2023. I'm sure POBOBS did that with a plan in mind as that seems to be the way he operates.
I think the Cs are supposed to be under the cap this year so maybe the plan at that time was to have this huge trade exception that they can use so that they could be way over the cap in the 1st year of luxury tax. Maybe the calculus also changes when Horford's entire salary next year becomes guaranteed after the Cs win the championship.
I just copied the list from HoopsHype that Ben Hogan linked to but great point. I also don't know how Issac's salary would be counted in terms of using the trade exception.
But if they could get Issac to fit and he was available and his medicals check out, he would be a great fit for what Ime is trying to do.