Things that make me pessimistic about this game:
1. The OL troubles that really showed up last week. It was a disaster against the Bills, and I worry they're going to get Brady injured.
2. The WR injuries. Brady could get rid of the ball quickly with Edelman and Amendola and Lewis out there. All dynamic players. If they're missing all three, the dropoff is enormous. They still have Blount and Gronk and LaFell and Chandler, so there's still some talent there, but the offense has to look different, and Brady probably will need more time to throw, which, from point #1, I worry they'll not be able to provide.
3. The running game. Or, more specifically, the running game struggles. Last two games:
- 23 rushes, 77 yards (3.3 ypc)
- 22 rushes, 85 yards (3.9 ypc)
If the passing game is going to have more difficulty, one way to help them is to run more effectively. I'd like to see them be able to pound the ball on Sunday, but I'm not sure how well that will work against Denver's run D (8th in rushing yards allowed per game, at 93.7, and 2nd in rushing yards allowed per carry, at 3.5).
Things that make me optimistic about this game:
1. The Patriots' defense has been fantastic. I think they show up big on Sunday. The Broncos tackles are weak, so I expect Jones, Ninkovich, and Sheard to be very disruptive. If they bring people over to help, and leave their interior guys one-on-one against the Patriots' DTs, expect Easley - who is coming on like a freight train - to have a big game. Also, watch for Mayo and Hightower to successfully bring pressure up the middle.
2. Osweiler. He has talent. But he's so inexperienced, and Belichick tends to do well against inexperienced QBs.
3. Brady, with a week to work with guys like Harper and Martin, should find a rhythm with them. I expect Brady to have a good game, so long as the OL gives him time to throw. Denver not having Ware available (which seems likely to be the case at this point) is a huge boost.