Source: https://atozsports.com/nfl/top-105-2024-free-agent-contract-projections-nfl/
What do you say, BBTL? Would you take your new WR1 at this price? If so, how high would you go?
Probably a contract that will look bad in year 2 and even worse in year 3, I think you're right. If we bring back Bourne, and add a pick or two (one high, one in the late rounds)...that could be the better course but it's a pretty unspectacular receiver room and our tight end situation is not great either. It's a hard choice. I'd express interest, let the market develop and see if I wanted to swoop in later in the process. I would not be out there early setting his market.Ridley would obviously be better than what they have in house but a 30 year old who disappeared a lot last year (9 games under 50 yards and dropped a number of key would-be touchdowns or big plays) isn’t my preferred use of money. I’d rather get a younger or higher end defensive player as the big ticket signing instead of paying a good-not-great receiver
That said, they have the cap space to overpay him, but I think he’s overrated by a lot of people and profiles as the type of guy who will look terrible in retrospect.
As with everything Pats-offense-in-the-last-few-years discussion, everything was a mess. I'm of the mind that Parker is fine, just not as a WR1. Which he was because the Pats were awful and Mac was flinging balls towards him while running for his life. Add to that whatever offensive philosophy the Pats had that seemed to regard WR as a curiosity more than a legit position and it was just terrible and Parker was miscast.Ridley is exactly the kind of guy who you pay money for, and then when he doesn't give you big numbers, the critics howl that it was obviously a ridiculous overpay given his real-world production.
Parker, in his last full (16 game) season, was 26 years old with Miami and he put up 72 catches, 1,202 yds (16.7 avg), and 9 touchdowns (56.3% catch rate).
Ridley, last year at age 29, played a full (17 game) season, and put up 76 catches, 1,016 yds (13.4 avg), and 8 touchdowns (55.9% catch rate).
Is Ridley better than Parker? Probably. I'd say yes. But it's not like Calvin Ridley has been this incredible player and he's now up there in age.
Agholor, the year before he came to NE, played 16 games at 27 years of age and put up 48 catches for 896 yds (18.7 avg), and 8 touchdowns (58.5% catch rate).
New England has rightly been criticized for signing Parker and Agholor. If they sign Ridley to a big deal and he doesn't put up big numbers, the criticism will be just as loud, and for all the same reasons.
I put little stock in Harmon. He keeps saying Ridley is a great separator, but we have tracking data that shows... He sucks at it. I also really don't get any tracking of WR "success" that appears to not consider things like... Did he catch the ball?I think Ridley would make a decent signing, as long as QB is addressed. Matt Harmon charted his 2023:
View: https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1765095431283908890?t=EHPfxNVgzymtW6UnSXqdbg&s=19
Basically, he runs the whole route tree successfully. Ridley actually had a low % of catchable passes thrown to him in '23: 136 targets, with 82 being "catchable" (caveat, you have place some stock in people tracking these stats on a fantasy football site https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php?team=JAC ). That may explain his poor catch rate, and it is worth pointing out that Jax was one of the worst teams at throwing catchable passes to their WR.
The thing is, are the Patriots going to be competent enough on offense over the next couple of years to warrant the contract it would probably take? It just seems like they need so much.
Yeah I think accumulating talent who can help the team win in 2026 and beyond is what I’d like to see them focus on. I’d rather one or two big swings at younger guys, even if they’re on defense, than sinking money on 30+ year old offensive guys.As with everything Pats-offense-in-the-last-few-years discussion, everything was a mess. I'm of the mind that Parker is fine, just not as a WR1. Which he was because the Pats were awful and Mac was flinging balls towards him while running for his life. Add to that whatever offensive philosophy the Pats had that seemed to regard WR as a curiosity more than a legit position and it was just terrible and Parker was miscast.
I'm fine with signing Ridley (without breaking the bank) because this offense needs talent. I don't think it's going to be an overnight fix on offense (though it could be!) and much like the Sox, I would prefer they accumulate talent for a reasonable cost where they can rather than hoping that they suddenly hit on a bunch of draft picks and FA in a single year.
Well done.It’s too much of a gamble. Pass
Agreed. That’s a lot of dough/years for a 30yo who’s not what we’d like him to be. I’d rather keep the powder dry for a WR that may shake out for contract/cap reasons. Our picks are now at the beginning of a round rather than the end, so they have real value to trade partners. If we have to spend, I’d rather lock up some of our younger guys and free up money down the road.No thank you. The year away did not benefit him. This would be an underwhelming move to try to shoe horn him in to being a number one. He isn’t. He honestly never was. He’s a 1B and while that’s more talent than we currently have I’m not sold he has the drive or the commitment to improve. Hard pass.
I'm a pass too. Don't overpay this guy.It’s too much of a gamble. Pass
tells you a lot about the class (and how they are ranking positional value) that Darnell Mooney is #19.The Athletic has free agent ranking up, Ridley ends up at 13, and the top WR.
Ridley represents the best combination of size, speed and hands in this class. He comes off the ball quickly, eats up defenders' cushions and gets in and out of breaks very fast. His suddenness jumps out, and he runs a complete route tree with the body control to win versus zone and man. He will frustrate with occasional drops, but it's more about focus than hands. The Jaguars owe the Falcons a 2024 third-round pick from the 2022 trade for Ridley, but if they extend him before free agency opens, that would become a second-rounder. He should hit the market atop a wideout class that was thinned by the franchise tag. — Mueller
https://theathletic.com/5318482/2024/03/10/nfl-free-agent-rankings-tracker/
The teams WR talents was putrid last season. What would you do to address it?tells you a lot about the class (and how they are ranking positional value) that Darnell Mooney is #19.
Ridley is a solid WR, he's also going to be 30 this season and is more a #2 than a #1 at this point and likely to keep declining. He's the best WR in the FA class, but that likely just means he'll be wildly overpaid.
It was bad, not putrid, but it's biggest problem isn't really fixable in FA since they didn't have an X guy who could win 1v1 on top corners, which means they needed to be schemed open and thrown open, and we didn't scheme enough open throws and our QB situation was arguably the league's worst with open receivers not even looked at, throws not made and weak arms leading to teams ignoring the boundaries. Ridley was never really that, he's certainly not that now.The teams WR talents was putrid last season. What would you do to address it?
Yeah, I can’t get there with Ridley. A pretty good WR but turns 30 this year and just isn’t the high impact guy we need. He had some big games but he also disappeared quite a bit. I also have concerns about his motivation after getting the bag. There are many other good FA options so I don’t really have the answer here but he scares me.Eh, think he's a limited player who can't beat press and struggles as a pure outside threat and that's kind of what the Patriots need. To me he's basically Kendrick Bourne at this point, only with double Bourne's price tag. A good complementary receiver and nothing else. Would much rather they spend some draft capital to acquire a better player. They need a difference maker at that spot and Ridley isn't that guy, the odds of us whining over Daniels/Maye being in a bad situation because Calvin Ridley is their WR1 in eight months are very high. I thought he sabotaged Lawrence a whole lot in the Jags games I watched last year.
production maybe, talent was just below average to bad.How anyone can argue the WR corps wasn't putrid last year is beyond me. I mean...it was TERRIBLE. Praying it can't get worse.
I'd be happy to staple Parker to a third round pick in return for Higgins to test this theory.production maybe, talent was just below average to bad.
We really need to stop acquiring players, watch them be much worse here and say "wow turns out that guy sucks"... one of the major problems with our WR corps the last 2 years has been QB play (and in 2022 playcalling), it's not a good group, bottom 5-7 of the league for sure, but it's a bunch of guys who have been better elsewhere and likely still would be better elsewhere. Some QBs and coordinators elevate WRs, ours have made them worse. Not many WRs in the NFL are just QB/scheme proof, you have to scheme them open and throw them open (also hit them when they win, something that the tape shows we weren't doing last year. Go look at some of those Mac/Zappe breakdowns, open guys not getting the ball was a common theme).
Not only were they awful, they couldn't stay on the damn field. Everyone talked about the revolving door with the offensive line, but the receivers weren't a whole lot better.How anyone can argue the WR corps wasn't putrid last year is beyond me. I mean...it was TERRIBLE. Praying it can't get worse.
Apropos of nothing, the food here is no good - and such small portions too!Not only were they awful, they couldn't stay on the damn field. Everyone talked about the revolving door with the offensive line, but the receivers weren't a whole lot better.
The Pats leading receiver in games played was Pop Douglas, a 6th round rookie, who had 3 games where he was inactive, and in a four week stretch, he played the following snap counts after Bill benched him for fumbling (8%, 24%, 33%, 21%). That's the guy that played the most games for the Pats at WR.
Coming in 2nd on the list, with "only" 4 games missed was the aforementioned Parker. In addition to those 4 missed games, he had 3 other games where he didn't play even 50% of the snaps.
Our 3rd most durable receiver last season, coming in with only 6 games missed entirely, was JuJu. He had 3 others where he played less than 50% of the snaps.
Tyquan Thornton managed to only miss 8 of the 17 games, so that's good. He played more than half.
The same can't be said for, IMO, our best receiver, Kendrick Bourne, who missed 9 of the 17 games.
Call it bad luck, or whatever, but this is a bad receiving group when healthy, and an even worse one when they couldn't even get on the field.
I have owned Hollywood Brown in a SoSH Dynasty fantasy league since he entered the NFLThe non-playoff team tax. Go call Hollywood Brown.
I'd definitely consider Brown.I have owned Hollywood Brown in a SoSH Dynasty fantasy league since he entered the NFL
I wouldn't sign him if I were the Pats for what Mooney just got from Atlanta.
At this point, I think you mess around the cheaper options who provide almost the same productivity (ie. Curtis Samuel and some other guys @Cellar-Door has been talking about) and hope to hit a home run in the draft (but IMO, they need to go at least 2, if not 3 WR's in the draft, pick one early and a couple more late). Everything else is too expensive, and you end up with more JuJu's and Parkers.
I'd consider Brown too, but I wouldn't pay him over $10mil per season, and I think he's going to cost more than that, considering Mooney just got $13mil AAV.I'd definitely consider Brown.
On the one hand he's had a ton of injuries which is scary.
On the other, he should be right in his prime and when he's on the field he's a dynamic talent (arguably better than Ridley), and his injuries are built into the price.
The Jags are just waiting until tomorrow to finalize their deal with Ridley. The trade that brought him to Jax included a provision that would send a 2nd round pick back to ATL if Ridley was re-signed before the start of the new NFL year (tomorrow) but that pick becomes a 3rd rounder if he is signed after the new year. Schefter reported part of this hereTodays the day. Bring me Ridley or bring me death...of Juju.
The rest he reported today on the NFL network.If Ridley, who is in the final year of his contract, re-signs with Jacksonville, the conditional pick to the Falcons would become a second-rounder, sources said. Ridley is not expected to sign an extension at any point this season and will wait until after the season to begin negotiations, sources said.
I have 0 problem with this.I think Ridley is just playing the Pats to squeeze a little more cash out of the Jags.