Calvin Ridley, you in?

Would you want the Patriot to sign Calvin Ridley at 3/$60 with $27.4MM guaranteed?


  • Total voters
    172

Arroyoyo

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Dec 13, 2021
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Sorry, I’m way down a dumb back-of-the-envelope math rabbit hole and just realized that if he matched least year’s receiving yards, Ridley will make $22,637 per yard in 2024.

A person working full-time making minimum wage in the United States earns $15,080 a year, assuming they work 40 hours every week, all 52 weeks.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Sep 9, 2008
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Sorry, I’m way down a dumb back-of-the-envelope math rabbit hole and just realized that if he matched least year’s receiving yards, Ridley will make $22,637 per yard in 2024.

A person working full-time making minimum wage in the United States earns $15,080 a year, assuming they work 40 hours every week, all 52 weeks.
It's a fun game and all, and it's a huge deal, but I think we all understand that football contracts are not baseball contracts -- this is not going to be a $92 million deal. He will likely play for 3 years under this deal. Two is also theoretically possible.
 

Pxer

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It's probably in the Pats' best interest to go short money on a WR since they didn't nab Ridley (good move, given the money).

Next year's class looks like a better one for WR. Note that the guy's with CO (here: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2025/all/wide-receiver/) are going to get their 5th-year options exercised in several cases, and some will sign extensions. Aiyuk, Lamb, Jefferson are all projected UFAs. If the Pats don't grab a potential #1 in the 2nd/3rd, they may be able to plug that hole next year in FA.
 

Cellar-Door

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It's probably in the Pats' best interest to go short money on a WR since they didn't nab Ridley (good move, given the money).

Next year's class looks like a better one for WR. Note that the guy's with CO (here: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2025/all/wide-receiver/) are going to get their 5th-year options exercised in several cases, and some will sign extensions. Aiyuk, Lamb, Jefferson are all projected UFAs. If the Pats don't grab a potential #1 in the 2nd/3rd, they may be able to plug that hole next year in FA.
they'll all get tagged. This year looked pretty good at this point last year.
 

Justthetippett

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Aug 9, 2015
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It's probably in the Pats' best interest to go short money on a WR since they didn't nab Ridley (good move, given the money).

Next year's class looks like a better one for WR. Note that the guy's with CO (here: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2025/all/wide-receiver/) are going to get their 5th-year options exercised in several cases, and some will sign extensions. Aiyuk, Lamb, Jefferson are all projected UFAs. If the Pats don't grab a potential #1 in the 2nd/3rd, they may be able to plug that hole next year in FA.
I could see Jefferson, even if gets tagged, demanding a trade and the Pats offering up a significant amount, particularly if they can hit on their (fellow LSU Tiger) QB and some other pieces in the draft this year. And Minnesota might be in rebuild mode.
 

chilidawg

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Athletic piece says Ridley was the Pats top priority, and that their options now are to sign a LT in FA and draft a WR in the 2nd, trade for Aiyuk or Higgins (which will cost at least their 2nd and then big extension) or pivot and sign a lesser WR, and acknowledge that the team is rebuilding and won’t have a #1 WR.

https://theathletic.com/5338714/2024/03/13/patriots-calvin-ridley-wr-free-agency/?source=user_shared_articlePatriots fail to land Calvin Ridley, so what are their WR options now?
Acknowledging they're rebuilding ought not be an obstacle.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Nov 17, 2010
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big is relative, he's a 26 year old tackle who can start at a solid average to above average level on both sides in the NFL and has no recent injury history... that's really quite valuable.
Normally I wouldnt say anything, but youve kinda been a dick about this stuff the last week or so. Just to confirm:
  • Williams was going to get a big contract (signed a 2/30)
  • Ridley was obviously going back to Jacksonville
  • No reason for the Pats to overspend for Onwenu
You're a well informed poster, but let's all agree we have no idea what we're talking about. I should probably heed my own advice (didn't believe there was a mystery team for Ridley, thought the market would be closer to $10M for him than $20 due to lack of suitors).
 

jodyreeddudley78

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Sep 22, 2007
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It's probably in the Pats' best interest to go short money on a WR since they didn't nab Ridley (good move, given the money).

Next year's class looks like a better one for WR. Note that the guy's with CO (here: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2025/all/wide-receiver/) are going to get their 5th-year options exercised in several cases, and some will sign extensions. Aiyuk, Lamb, Jefferson are all projected UFAs. If the Pats don't grab a potential #1 in the 2nd/3rd, they may be able to plug that hole next year in FA.
I would be genuinely surprised if any of the top WRs under 30 are available without a trade (Aiyuk, JJ, CeeDee, DeVonta Smith, Waddle, Chase, Higgins... Even Nico). Teams are well aware of how valuable these players are.

I tend to agree that Ridley was way overpaid, but you're either going to give up draft capital for a chance to sign one of the above guys, or be prepared to overpay one of Amari/Keenan/Godwin/etc. next year, who will probably all have the exact same concerns that people had with Ridley this year, minus the gambling/time off thing, obviously.
 

EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
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Ridley is entering his age 30 season and WRs with his physical profile typically don't age well. He wins with speed, explosion, and twitch more than size, physicality, and next-level route running. I know he has less physical wear & tear than most 30 year old WRs, but I'm not convinced that matters in terms of preserving his athletic longevity as he ages. It certainly didn't matter for Josh Gordon. Maybe Ridley will be the exception, but you can insert the Tobias/Arrested Development "But it might for us!" meme there...

Would I have wanted Ridley in NE? Sure. Would I have wanted him at the price NE offered? Not really.
 

PRabbit

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Apr 3, 2022
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Paying guys like Ridley 23m a year AAV is how you get stuck in mediocrity.

Good on him getting the bag. Glad it's not my team giving it to him.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Nov 17, 2010
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If you feel bad about missing Ridley, cheer yourself up with his starring role in this compilation of Jags WRs running out of bounds or dropping balls costing Lawrence TDs
View: https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1744781890182054242
I wanted to spend on Ridley, but the guy definitely has holes in his game that were pointed out a bunch here.

So, he was targeted 132 times last season, 17th most in the league. Of the 16 guys ahead of him, only 2 - Pittman and AJ Brown - ran less screen routes or from the slot. Not the end of the world, but a little bit of a bummer that he's only able to work outside.

But the reason Pittman and Brown can succeed as (nearly) exclusive X receivers is because they have the ability to get separation, particularly against press. Ridley just can't.

Football 101 for those that aren't aware: you always need at least 7 men on the LOS. The X receivers are the receivers that are on the LOS, while the slot guys - generally - are off the LOS by a yard or two. This means that the X receiver is going to have to work much harder to get separation because they don't have the same buffer to build up momentum as the slot receivers do. This issue bears out in the stats for Ridley.

Going back to Pittman and Brown - the other near exclusive X receivers - they both have almost identical YAC/Reception (4.6 and 4.8). Ridley's is nearly half that (2.7). He isn't able to create space on the outside, which is going to lead to a lot tighter windows. That means you better be able to win those battles for contested balls...Ridley doesn't. Ridley's contested catch rate was 36%, while Brown and Pittman were able to sit at 45% and 53%. In fact, of the 37 players with at least 100 targets, Ridley ranked 29th. I'm sure that lack of separation is partly what lead to him ranking 35th out of those same 37 for drop rate.

I think Ridley would make a great #2 receiver. But if your #1 guy can't beat press, doesn't move around the field, can't get separation, and drops a shit ton of balls? I'm not in love with spending $23M a year for his age 30-34 season. At $12-15M a year? Fine. But with an aging Ridley and Hopkins, I expect their to be alot of throws into tight windows in Tennessee.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I think Ridley is a bit more valuable to the Titans than to some other teams so they paid him a little more than other teams should. The synergy with Hopkins will get him chances. And having a tandem like that makes the defense have to make choices I think.

Nothing wrong happened here. Patriots made a strong offer and a team that can deploy him well where he has a chance to succeed viewed him as a bit more valuable.

It just is what it is. There is no story here or deep meaning. The next WR receivers will get what they get based on all the market factors in play when they are on the market.

This really feels like a move along nothing to see.

Edit — also a fair amount of assumptions about what this contract even is based on tweets sourcing his agent. Everyone here knows football contracts well enough to know this very well may not be a $92m contract or a $23m AAV contract other than in name. We know it is at least a real $50 million contract. Some of the rest is almost certainly Monopoly money.
 
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EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
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I'm just not sure what Tennessee is doing. They have a group of expensive skill position players near the edge of the cliff and a QB who very likely sucks.

Levis had the 4th worst completion % versus expected in the league, and I don't have a ton of confidence he's going to get better. If he does, Tennessee is probably okay. If he doesn't, yikes.
 

Bigdogx

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Jul 21, 2020
166
Ridley is a fringe number 1 and more like an aging number 2 at best. Last year was nothing special for him and another year older doesn't make it any better imo. Count me as one of the glad we dodged this bullet crowd, i rather see the cap space go unused to be honest then getting stuck with a absolute stupid contract like what the Titans gave him.

He had 4 games last season in which he broke a 100 yards and 6 games where he scored a td, that is also on a team with a pretty decent offense which we dont have here, not exactly burning the house down type numbers.. I know everyone wants to bash the cheap drum right now but just having cap space should not mean that you go making a dumb move to just make a dumb move like a certain Story we all know!
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
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I'm going to be annoying about this every year now but I feel kind of strongly that the Pats need to be drafting at least 1 receiver in Rd 1-4 for awhile. It's not like the track record across other positions has been so good anyway. You need to keep firing bullets. You won't always be the Packers finding 5 good pass catchers within two drafts but just getting a couple usable rookie contract guys will be a huge boost otherwise we will be doing this dance every single season.
 

Pesky Pole

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I'm just not sure what Tennessee is doing. They have a group of expensive skill position players near the edge of the cliff and a QB who very likely sucks.

Levis had the 4th worst completion % versus expected in the league, and I don't have a ton of confidence he's going to get better. If he does, Tennessee is probably okay. If he doesn't, yikes.
The numbers seem high but Levis led the league in air yards per attempt and Ridley was 5th in the league in perimeter yards. With Henry moving on, they will try to keep the pushing the ball long down the field. So Ridley's skill set theoretically matches that plan. We’ll see if it works out at that money.
 

Jimbodandy

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That deal is insanity. I legitimately laughed when I saw those numbers. I'm honestly a bit concerned that the Pats were in the race if that was the price.
That was my thought too at first, but general guesswork consensus seems to be that the guarantees were much lower from us. This makes sense in that the Ridley that some people here think still exists would be well worth that money in the next few years, where our offer was hedging against that (i.e., that he's the Ridley that he really is) and Tennessee's offer just doesn't. If he's super mid over the next few years, that deal will look ridiculously bad and ours wouldn't have looked nearly as bad. Caveat--not sure that we know what our offer was exactly.
 

rodderick

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That was my thought too at first, but general guesswork consensus seems to be that the guarantees were much lower from us. This makes sense in that the Ridley that some people here think still exists would be well worth that money in the next few years, where our offer was hedging against that (i.e., that he's the Ridley that he really is) and Tennessee's offer just doesn't. If he's super mid over the next few years, that deal will look ridiculously bad and ours wouldn't have looked nearly as bad. Caveat--not sure that we know what our offer was exactly.
Yeah, it's kind of a pointless exercise without knowing the structure and my guess is receiver contracts will be bonkers going forward, but still. Is he even 20% better than a guy like Bourne at this point? I'm not sure.
 

EL Jeffe

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The numbers seem high but Levis led the league in air yards per attempt and Ridley was 5th in the league in perimeter yards. With Henry moving on, they will try to keep the pushing the ball long down the field. So Ridley's skill set theoretically matches that plan. We’ll see if it works out at that money.
Well yeah. The air yards per attempt helps explain his low completion percentage. His expected completion percentage takes air yards into consideration and says he was more inaccurate than he should have been.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah, it's kind of a pointless exercise without knowing the structure and my guess is receiver contracts will be bonkers going forward, but still. Is he even 20% better than a guy like Bourne at this point? I'm not sure.
He probably isn't much, but the chicken littles still want to dream on that version that he was for one year four years ago.

Obviously a lot of it is complaining for the sake of it, Kraft is cheap memes, etc. But some of it is that dude who plays fantasy football and drafts players way too high because they recognize the name from when that guy was a top 10 option. Wolf et al. aren't that guy, thank Buddha.
 

jodyreeddudley78

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Well yeah. The air yards per attempt helps explain his low completion percentage. His expected completion percentage takes air yards into consideration and says he was more inaccurate than he should have been.
Levis was definitely in rarified air last year.

Tenn moves seem kind of strange to me. Pollard/Ridley are kind of “win now” moves, or a fairly expensive way to find out if Levis is your guy. Burks probably moves to the slot, I guess, but the Ridley signing sure seems like they have full confidence in a QB that seemed like a hero ball guy.
 

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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Sep 9, 2008
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Details are out on the deal. It's effectively 3/69.5. He's cuttable after 2 and it would become 2/51.

I was off on signing bonus, but was close on cap. They are taking a bigger cap hit in 2025, but their upside is that he can actually be cut without terrible consequence after 2 years, except for injury.

Cap numbers:

2024 $10m
2025: $28m
2026: $26.75m (out with dead cap $10 million, $3 million of salary is guaranteed)
2027 $27.25m (out with dead cap $5 million)

Anyone want to guess what it will really look like? I'll probably be way off but fun to try to play capologist. I won't mess with roster bonuses and just include it as salary. Guaranteed in bold.

$30 million signing

2024 $4 million salary $7.5m bonus proration $11.5 million cap hit
2025 $16 million salary $7.5m bonus proration $23.5 million cap hit
2026 $21 million salary $7.5m bonus proration $28.5 million cap hit ($15 million dead cap)
2027 $21 million salary 7.5m bonus proration $28.5 million cap hit ($7.5 million dead cap)
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/calvin-ridley-25121/
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I get the cap has risen, but an almost 30M cap hit (likely 11-12 percent of the cap) for Ridley next year? Yeesh.
Yeah, it's a pretty big number. But they are probably thinking of it like this: They have a ton of cap room right now. Only committing $10 million to Ridley this year means they will likely carry some over to next year to pay for part of the $28.5 million hit next year. They could have smoothed it out more between this year and next -- maybe done like $17 this year and $21 next year. But there's no need to do that. Just carry it over and it's the same thing, and this way if they decide they want to use the money this year because a great opportunity comes knocking, they have the ability to do it.

Pretty clear that they want an escape hatch and to be able to cut their losses after 2 years if needed. I look at it like this. Titans can choose between:

2 year deal for 53-56 million. 2024 $10 million cap, 2025 $28.5 million cap, 2026, $10 million dead plus possibly $3 million guaranteed

3 year deal for 69.5 million. 2024 $10 million cap, 2025 $28.5 million cap, 2026 $26.75m cap, 2027 $5 million dead

4 year deal for 92 million, cap backloaded.
 

Silverdude2167

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Nice fall girl he found there.

And not that I think the Krafts are cheap (when it comes to the Pats), but we totally would have spent more he just did not want it is not a great line.
 

Cellar-Door

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Remember when Kraft was a great owner because he hired good people, got out of the way and shut his mouth..... miss those days.
 

KingChre

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Jul 31, 2009
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Nice fall girl he found there.

And not that I think the Krafts are cheap (when it comes to the Pats), but we totally would have spent more he just did not want it is not a great line.
It's amazing really. Like the option of paying more just wasn't a thing. Not saying they should have, that's debatable, but this does not make feel better.
 

DJnVa

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It's amazing really. Like the option of paying more just wasn't a thing. Not saying they should have, that's debatable, but this does not make feel better.
Didn't the clip say they were willing to pay more?
 
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Kliq

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I don't think Calvin Ridley is very good and the Tennessee deal felt like an overpay, so I'm glad the Patriots didn't make a bigger offer.
 

Van Everyman

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Didn't the clip say they were willing to pay more?
Yeah while everybody’s losing their shit here’s what he actually said:

We pursued the people we wanted and free agency. There was one outstanding receiver that unfortunately, we couldn't close. It was not because of finance. It was made clearly his girlfriend wanted to be in the south and we had a situation where the taxes were like, almost 10% higher and we offered or were willing to keep going to add that premium. But he didn't want to be in the Northeast. And part of that might be the quarterback situation as well.
 

Cellar-Door

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What he said is harmless. Nobody is going to second guess coming here because of this.
I didn't mean it wasn't harmless, it's just part of the new Kraft M.O. of making public excuses and comments on football ops. Actually the comment I thought was the most bullshit was pretending he didn't know about the daycare thing after getting wrecked on family experience the previous year too
 

54thMA

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Nice fall girl he found there.

And not that I think the Krafts are cheap (when it comes to the Pats), but we totally would have spent more he just did not want it is not a great line.
What's even worse about that comment is Ridley is married; wait until his wife finds out he's got a girlfriend, that won't go over well.