Can we talk about how bad Allen Craig has been?

[MakMan44]

OPS+ of 37 through 74 PAs. 0-3 with 2 Ks tonight. Owed something like $26 million through 2018 (including his buyout).
 
So what does the future hold for Craig? I've been a proponent of the Ben acquired this guy for a reason, but I can't honestly say I have a solid idea of what the Red Sox plan to do with him in the offseason, or going into next season. 

 

[moondog80]

OPS+ of 37 through 74 PAs. 0-3 with 2 Ks tonight. Owed something like $26 million through 2018 (including his buyout).
 
So what does the future hold for Craig? I've been a proponent of the Ben acquired this guy for a reason, but I can't honestly say I have a solid idea of what the Red Sox plan to do with him in the offseason, or going into next season. 

He's behind Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino, and Betts on the OF depth chart, sharing the short side of a platoon with Nava in 5th place. And he has no trade value. You could trade Nap and open up a spot that way, but they'd have to be pretty damn sure of a return to form, and I'm not sure how that could be the case.

So I have no idea how this ends.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

One supposes this all has to do with health. If Ben chalks this pathetic performance up to the foot injury then they could feasibly hope for a recovery with rest. If not then it's a sunk cost. But I can't see them making off season plans based on Craig being a regular next year. The OF is going to be Cespedes, Castillo and Betts .. Hopefully Craig can be the 2014 version of Carp.

 

[moondog80]

One supposes this all has to do with health. If Ben chalks this pathetic performance up to the foot injury then they could feasibly hope for a recovery with rest. If not then it's a sunk cost. But I can't see them making off season plans based on Craig being a regular next year. The OF is going to be Cespedes, Castillo and Betts .. Hopefully Craig can be the 2014 version of Carp.

Hopefully? Hitting like crap and getting DFA is his upside?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Hopefully? Hitting like crap and getting DFA is his upside?

Oops .. Meant the 2013 version of Carp

Or the the 2015 version of Carp's 2013 season ..

 

[The Gray Eagle]

It's a contest to see who looks most lost at the plate between Craig, Bradley and Middlebrooks.
 
Vazquez has an awful .535 OPS and he looks like Rod Carew compared to those three lost souls.
 
Why can't the Red Sox get any of these guys to improve? They all look helpless and have for months now.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

It's a contest to see who looks most lost at the plate between Craig, Bradley and Middlebrooks.
 
Vazquez has an awful .535 OPS and he looks like Rod Carew compared to those three lost souls.
 
Why can't the Red Sox get any of these guys to improve? They all look helpless and have for months now.

Well, this has been an ongoing complaint of mine for several months. They go into death spirals and just can't recover. This HAS to be a coaching issue.

 

[Sprowl]

Craig may be toast, but I think he should get an offseason to rehab, before we crumble him into soup. This could be a Lisfranc issue, creating ongoing problems at hitting the low inside fastball.
 
Scouts, don't fail me now!

 

[TheYaz67]

Getting a 2013-era Carp contribution wouldn't be "bad", at the same time Carp wasn't/isn't owed $26 million.  Getting the sinking feeling that the Cards medical and baseball folks think Craig is toast/unlikely to come back to where he was b/c of the foot and other issues, and that he was the expensive "throw-in" required to get Kelly in that trade - much like Lowell and his remaining $18 million came with Beckett (albeit I doubt we will get 10+ WAR out of Craig over three seasons like we did from Mikey)....
 
Edited to add:  Beyond the numbers he doesn't pass the "eyeball test" - he looks awful at the plate.  He strikes out on sliders off the plate/in the dirt that never even remotely started in the strike zone at all, so he doesn't seem to be seeing/identifying balls well among other problems.... 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Getting the sinking feeling that the Cards medical and baseball folks think Craig is toast/unlikely to come back to where he was b/c of the foot and other issues, and that he was the expensive "throw-in" required to get Kelly in that trade - much like Lowell and his remaining $18 million came with Beckett (albeit I doubt we will get 10+ WAR out of Craig over three seasons like we did from Mikey)....

 
Kelly wasn't that highly touted and he's always had pretty low K rates in AAA and his 3 years in the big leagues.  Plus, his walk rates weren't that great.
 
from Sickels '11:
17) Joe Kelly, RHP, Grade C+: ERA was ugly in Double-A, but I like his sinking power stuff, and even a marginal improvement with his command (and his luck) could push him forward.
 
I don't think he's good enough nor that highly thought of that you would have to eat Craig's contract in order to get him.  I would have to believe that the Sox think Craig will bounce back once his foot is better.  It's not a bad gamble for one year of Lackey at league minimum (who would have been a pain in the ass), but it's going to hurt if Craig is toast.

 

[Stanley Steamer]

Yeah, I think we need to talk about this. I mean, this guy was All-star caliber, and now he's hapless. I'm surprised a foot injury can make him this lost at the plate. It certainly suggests the Cardinals knew what they were doing in dumping his salary. I hope Kelly can sustain some of his performance so that this deal doesn't turn into a fleecing. Then again, StL was kind enough to let us win the World Series last year, so it's all good.
It seems to me that one of the most important organizational hires for the Sox right now is hitting coach. There has been a void there this year, and getting someone in there to assist and relax our struggling hitters is of paramount importance. Our players are otherwise so fundamentally sound, if they can hit, they will win.
I'm not sure whom they should be targeting. I hope he speaks Spanish.

 

[nattysez]

Well, this has been an ongoing complaint of mine for several months. They go into death spirals and just can't recover. This HAS to be a coaching issue.

 
Does it?  With JBJ and Vazquez, it could be a talent issue.  It's possible they're both major-league back-ups.  I'm not sure we can assume either of them has the talent to hit better than they've hit this year.
 
As for Craig, he's been awful all year after suffering a pretty significant injury.  If his mechanics were messed up all year due to the injury, the hitting coach would have to be a miracle worker to fix him in the short time he's been healthy and a Sox.  
 
I'm not really against hiring a new hitting coach, but I'm not convinced those three examples support a claim that the current coach isn't doing the job.

 

[j44thor]

If they think rest and rehab are what is necessary to get Craig get back to his pre 2013 levels then why is he still being trotted out there?  This team isn't playing for anything, hell he is taking AB's away from people that may actually need them.  It is also abundantly clear he isn't going to play his way out of this.  He should be on a stringent rehab program already so he has ample time to be ready for spring training.  Wouldn't hurt him to be fully healthy come January.
 
I have a feeling instead he will end up having surgery come Jan/Feb and be out for most of 2015 as well.
 
Ben was fleeced and it is almost as if they are continuing to play him to hope that isn't the case. Wishcasting is never a good strategy.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

It's hard to believe that Ben wasn't aware of his struggles this season and connected it to his injury.  What I don't get is why they don't just shut him down for the season and give him some eye tests.... it seems like it's not just his swing (brought on by the injury....) but his eye for pitches is horrendous.  I understand that bad discipline can also be the result of struggling with an injury though also- pressing for hits and becoming a bit unhinged by one's lack of success perhaps?
If he ends up having surgery anytime after October I'll be confused.  He needs an immediate evaluation and decision regarding the foot.  Even if he misses half the season but comes back in July as a part timer, he could have a lot to offer in '15 and taking over from Napoli in '16 back as a f/t'er.

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

I think 2014 is obviously a lost year for Craig and looking at this stats isn't terribly useful.
 
The problem, as others have mentioned, is that he doesn't appear to have a role on the 2015.  If he looks healthy in ST, maybe that will change, but it is hard to see that.  

 

[joe dokes]

I rarely venture into eyeball analysis because I dont know what I'm talking about, but Craig seems to frequently "get himself out", as they say. He seems to be striding so far into pitches that he "jams himself" on even very hittable pitches.  I didn't see how he hit when he raked in St.L, but unlike, say Middlebrooks, who seems to just swing right through hittable fastballs, there's something about Craig's swing that, on TV anyway, makes every pitch over the plate seem like an inside fastball. I dont know if it's where he stands, or maybe he closes off his stance (too much back to the pitcher when he strides), but when he swings, I dont see how he can possibly get the head of the bat on any fastball that isn't on the outer 20% of the plate.

 

[Harry Hooper]

If you were deathly afraid of fouling a ball off the top of your (half-broken) foot, you'd close up your stance and try to drive everything to RCF. This would in turn make you vulnerable to hard stuff inside.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Is there someone with more technological expertise then I have that can post a side by side of Craig's swing in 2014 vs. his swing in 2011-2013?  I just watched some of his older swings and he definitely has an inside-out type of swing.  Has anyone noticed any specific differences this year? 

 

[joe dokes]

If you were deathly afraid of fouling a ball off the top of your (half-broken) foot, you'd close up your stance and try to drive everything to RCF. This would in turn make you vulnerable to hard stuff inside.

 
Sounds good to me. And while I'm not ready to concede that he's actually playing on a still-broken foot, he may have altered his approach *last year* to compensate. So the (lack of) result is the same. (again, this all assumes that what i see is both accurate and a departure from his past.).

 

[Harry Hooper]

Is there someone with more technological expertise then I have that can post a side by side of Craig's swing in 2014 vs. his swing in 2011-2013?  I just watched some of his older swings and he definitely has an inside-out type of swing.  Has anyone noticed any specific differences this year? 

 
No swings but the spray charts at Fangraphs show Craig driving the ball with authority pretty much from one foul line to the other for 2012-13. Then for 2014 his chart almost looks like a LH pull hitter.

 

[Fishy1]

 
No swings but the spray charts at Fangraphs show Craig driving the ball with authority pretty much from one foul line to the other for 2012-13. Then for 2014 his chart almost looks like a LH pull hitter.

 
An article from fangraphs (which I believe made several appearances in the initial trade thread) laments Allen Crag, Who Once Knew Left Field
 
Also of particular note: 
 

 
 
It used to be that Craig saw about 60% hard pitches. This was the case each season, with very little bouncing around. Yesterday, I took a look at Josh Hamilton‘s recently unprecedented fastball rate. Craig’s going the other direction. From last year, Craig’s rate of hard pitches seen is up by more than eight percentage points. His is the biggest increase in baseball. Put a very similar way: No one in baseball has seen a bigger increase in hard pitches than Allen Craig.

 
Forgive me if I'm being redundant here by posting this again.
 
I'd also note that according to his plate discipline data, he's making contact 61.8% of the time on pitches out of the zone -- 9% less than his career average. Incredibly, he's also swinging at them a little less than his career average. This sounds like it's a a matter of selection, and as several others have noted, he seems to pick some really bad pitches off the plate -- he's practically hurling his bat at them to get even close. So besides the fact that he can't pull the ball worth shit, he's also given up any pretense of swinging at hittable pitches.
 
There's also, you know, how fucking awful he's looked. 

 

[JimD]

I'm OK with taking a chance on an All-Star caliber player returning to form, but yeah continuing to pencil him into the 2014 lineup is baffling.

 

[TheYaz67]

I rarely venture into eyeball analysis because I dont know what I'm talking about, but Craig seems to frequently "get himself out", as they say. He seems to be striding so far into pitches that he "jams himself" on even very hittable pitches.  I didn't see how he hit when he raked in St.L, but unlike, say Middlebrooks, who seems to just swing right through hittable fastballs, there's something about Craig's swing that, on TV anyway, makes every pitch over the plate seem like an inside fastball. I dont know if it's where he stands, or maybe he closes off his stance (too much back to the pitcher when he strides), but when he swings, I dont see how he can possibly get the head of the bat on any fastball that isn't on the outer 20% of the plate.

 
He is starting his front foot slightly open, and when he strides to swing, he is definitely not striding directly back at the pitcher - he is closing his stance somewhat, so your eyes are not fooling you - he is both jamming himself on hard inside half of the zone pitches and I suppose making him feel he can reach those outside pitches he keeps swinging at and missing....

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

If you were deathly afraid of fouling a ball off the top of your (half-broken) foot, you'd close up your stance and try to drive everything to RCF. This would in turn make you vulnerable to hard stuff inside.

 
EDIT: NM. Got it now.

 

[gryoung]

I'm giving Craig the offseason to rehab.  Let's see how he looks in February if he's still with the team and not a piece of some trade over the winter.

 

[strek1]

I'm giving Craig the offseason to rehab.  Let's see how he looks in February if he's still with the team and not a piece of some trade over the winter.

 The only way somebody will even take a chance on him  is if we eat most of the $$$

 

[Rasputin]

The problem, as others have mentioned, is that he doesn't appear to have a role on the 2015.  If he looks healthy in ST, maybe that will change, but it is hard to see that.  

 
I'm not sure that's the case. Unless there's an injury, I think it's safe to say that he's going to start off by backing up left and first. If he's doing well, he'll probably get a ton of pinch hitting chances, and oh yeah, our first baseman has an explosive hip and our DH is fifty.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I'm not sure that's the case. Unless there's an injury, I think it's safe to say that he's going to start off by backing up left and first. If he's doing well, he'll probably get a ton of pinch hitting chances, and oh yeah, our first baseman has an explosive hip and our DH is fifty.

Well, let's see ..

Cespedes , Castillo and Betts , Napoli , Pedroia, X , and a third baseman to be named later and Vazquez And Ortiz are the starters

Victorino, Craig, Nava , a backup C and Holt are the bench

That's 14 guys .. Which is one too many ..

If we give JBJ another chance that's two too many.

Now Vic's health is a major uncertainty. But , if he's healthy he's the 4th OF

The only way to get Craig on the team is to send both JBJ and Nava back to Pawtucket.

The Sox seriously handcuffed their roster flexibility by keeping Carp on the team. Is this going to happen again?

I don't think you can trade Craig .. And there's no place to play him. You can't trade any of the other OFs because you can't assume Craig will bounce back.

The only scenario that makes sense is the Sox believe Victorino is done.

 

[Rasputin]

The only way to get Craig on the team is to send both JBJ and Nava back to Pawtucket.

The only scenario that makes sense is the Sox believe Victorino is done.

 
Sending Nava back to Pawtucket is a miniscule price to pay for the chance to get the old Allen Craig back, assuming he has the option left.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'd keep JBJ over Craig in a heartbeat. At least he has some utility in other areas. Craig is a zero tool player at this point, from what I can tell. Maybe he can regain the ability to hit the ball the left field and he clearly has power when he runs into one, but he runs like there's a piano on his back and he doesn't seem like a wizard with the glove. 
 
He needs to be an OPS+ 110-120 guy to be a net positive. 

 

[Rasputin]

I'd keep JBJ over Craig in a heartbeat. At least he has some utility in other areas. Craig is a zero tool player at this point, from what I can tell. Maybe he can regain the ability to hit the ball the left field and he clearly has power when he runs into one, but he runs like there's a piano on his back and he doesn't seem like a wizard with the glove. 
 
He needs to be an OPS+ 110-120 guy to be a net positive. 

Keeping Bradley in AAA for a while it's the best thing for him and the organization.

 

[judyb]

Sending Nava back to Pawtucket is a miniscule price to pay for the chance to get the old Allen Craig back, assuming he has the option left.

Nava's out of options, Craig is not.

 

[Rasputin]

Nava's out of options, Craig is not.

Really? Well isn't that interesting? I assume he's got enough service time to require waivers. Does that mean any team claiming him would have to take his salary?

And we're talking about revocable waivers right?

Let Craig get himself fixed at the bucket.

 

[twibnotes]

 
Does it?  With JBJ and Vazquez, it could be a talent issue.  It's possible they're both major-league back-ups.  I'm not sure we can assume either of them has the talent to hit better than they've hit this year.
 
As for Craig, he's been awful all year after suffering a pretty significant injury.  If his mechanics were messed up all year due to the injury, the hitting coach would have to be a miracle worker to fix him in the short time he's been healthy and a Sox.  
 
I'm not really against hiring a new hitting coach, but I'm not convinced those three examples support a claim that the current coach isn't doing the job.

Anyone who has watched this team can attest to the fact that the hitting woes go way beyond the three players cited by the post. How many guys do you need to see struggle, and not improve one iota, to see that we need a change at hitting coach? It's not just JBJ, Craig and Vazquez. You have WMB, X for a huge chunk of the season, Nava for a huge chunk of the season...hell, even Sizemore has been a good deal more productive since leaving Boston. Is that all on the hitting coach? I doubt it, but there's a good amount of smoke there. Most importantly, there isn't a ton of evidence that the current staff has been able to help the young guys.

 

[judyb]

Really? Well isn't that interesting? I assume he's got enough service time to require waivers. Does that mean any team claiming him would have to take his salary?

And we're talking about revocable waivers right?

Let Craig get himself fixed at the bucket.

Technically, it's not service time but 3 years since first reporting to a major league team, so it looks like he'd have to clear OAW but, yes, they're revocable and they could choose to dump his salary on a team that claimed him, which apparently never happens anyway.

 

[Rasputin]

Technically, it's not service time but 3 years since first reporting to a major league team, so it looks like he'd have to clear OAW but, yes, they're revocable and they could choose to dump his salary on a team that claimed him, which apparently never happens anyway.

At this point, I would rather pull him back than dump the salary.

 

[Fireball Fred]

I think Craig was a panic trade. The Sox weren't hitting with RISP; Craig has been the best hitter with RISP, and was available. No long-term plan here, just hope that he'd come around quickly and be productive again. Oops.

 

[syoo8]

I think Craig was a panic trade. The Sox weren't hitting with RISP; Craig has been the best hitter with RISP, and was available. No long-term plan here, just hope that he'd come around quickly and be productive again. Oops.

 
 
Do you really think that Cherington, Baird, Mike Hazen are looking at batting average with runners in scoring position, and pulling the trigger on trades on that basis?  Please.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

I think Craig was a panic trade. The Sox weren't hitting with RISP; Craig has been the best hitter with RISP, and was available. No long-term plan here, just hope that he'd come around quickly and be productive again. Oops.

this doesn't fit with trading a productive older player for less productive younger players with more team control.... at all, and that's just the lackey for kelly/craig trade.

 

[JimD]

Given the amount of hand-wringing from some Red Sox fans, you'd think that Craig has a Carl Crawford-esque megacontract tied around his neck.  He doesn't.  The Red Sox owe him $25.5 million through the 2017 season ($5.5 in 2015, $9 in 2016 and $11 in 2017), with a $13 million team option for 2018 or $1 million buyout.  This is a minimal risk for a team with Boston's resources and exactly the type of contract they should be looking to take on from another team for a opportunity like Allen Craig represents.

 

[Drek717]

I think Craig was a panic trade. The Sox weren't hitting with RISP; Craig has been the best hitter with RISP, and was available. No long-term plan here, just hope that he'd come around quickly and be productive again. Oops.

Or the team thinks that a full year removed from his injury he'll bounce back to his old self, or that such an occurrence is likely enough to be of real value.
 
It's pretty clear the injury is the source of his collapse offensively, the question is if it somehow destabilized the foot permanently and will prevent him from ever returning to his old swing mechanics or if the late occurrence of the injury in 2013, the rush back for the WS that same year, the already abbreviated off-season experienced by a WS contender, and the further reduction in off-season conditioning he got while recovering from the foot injury last winter all combined to rob him of being ready to compete out of the gate in 2014, a fact that has since been made worse by him trying to cheat on pitches, tinkering with his mechanics, etc. in an attempt to compete.
 
Allen Craig might be one healthy off-season from hitting the reset button and being a >.800 OPS middle of the order bat.  He also might be damaged goods through and through.  For $26M though that isn't a bad bet.  If it's the former he's going to be worth twice his salary over the next several years.  If it's the later, well, the Sox have carried far worse dead weight contracts when they had far less depth in the farm and other bigger contracts contending for payroll space.  I don't think Craig is going to be a handcuff either way.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Given the amount of hand-wringing from some Red Sox fans, you'd think that Craig has a Carl Crawford-esque megacontract tied around his neck.  He doesn't.  The Red Sox owe him $25.5 million through the 2017 season ($5.5 in 2015, $9 in 2016 and $11 in 2017), with a $13 million team option for 2018 or $1 million buyout.  This is a minimal risk for a team with Boston's resources and exactly the type of contract they should be looking to take on from another team for a opportunity like Allen Craig represents.

 
That's $26.5 including the buyout, which is a hell of a lot of money for a guy playing below replacement level.

 

[Todd Benzinger]

Allen Craig, age 29, OPS+ 69 (77 in STL, 28 in BOS)
 
Plenty of guys have a terrible year once or twice in a (very) productive career. I've been wrong about this often on SoSH. I thought Lowell was cooked (age 31, ops+ of 77). I thought it was crazy to sign Johnny Damon after a bad year in Oakland (ops+ of 83 at age 27). Paul Konerko had one very bad year in Chicago (ops+83 at age 27), and some SoSHers hoped the Sox would pounce. I thought that was a terrible idea. Adrian Beltre had bad, if not awful, years (93 ops+, age 26; 83 ops+, age 30) before coming to the Sox for his late career surge. OTOH--looking at the stats--I thought getting Tony Clark was great--and then he had his awful year, as bad as Craig, actually worse (Age 30, 49 ops+), for the Sox; he is the one example who sort of fell off the table, although he had some OK and even very good years as a part-timer thereafter.
 
There must be a study of guys who put up a stinker of a year between ages 27-30 and what it means. Of the examples I can think of, it doesn't seem to mean anything much. It could be something wrong that spells a downward spiral (Clark); usually it means a slump before a return to form (all the the others).
 
I am pretty sure that to have such bad years these guys must all have had very bad stretches in those years when they looked all wrong at the plate.
 
For a while the SoSH consensus was that Craig must be hurt, and can heal and return to form. Maybe, or maybe we should hope that his injury has healed, but led to bad adjustments and he is just slumping. If that's actually the best case, maybe the fact that he is worse with the Sox than with the Cards is, oddly enough, a good sign: he is clearly really slumping. Slumps suck, but they mostly seem to go away eventually.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
That's $26.5 including the buyout, which is a hell of a lot of money for a guy playing below replacement level.

Spread out over 3 years when we will have so many cost-controlled players in the lineup and rotation during this time is an excellent risk to take however with this risk likely included in our budget/plans over the next several years. His 2016 and 2017 salary is roughly 75-80% of Victorino's deal that will be off the books during those seasons.

Having said that it can't be fun being Ben or whoever was pushing him onto Craig to see his second half performance w the Sox.

 

[TomRicardo]

You cannot trade Allen Craig.
 
At worst you start him in AAA next year and see if he can hit.
 
Also the money is really not an issue.
 
Honestly, he doesn't cost you 25 man roster spot and he doesn't cost outlandish money yet (especially since we are not close to the luxury tax).  There is no reason to get rid of Craig.  You hold on and hope he returns to form.

 

[joe dokes]

Or the team thinks that a full year removed from his injury he'll bounce back to his old self, or that such an occurrence is likely enough to be of real value.
 
It's pretty clear the injury is the source of his collapse offensively, the question is if it somehow destabilized the foot permanently and will prevent him from ever returning to his old swing mechanics or if the late occurrence of the injury in 2013, the rush back for the WS that same year, the already abbreviated off-season experienced by a WS contender, and the further reduction in off-season conditioning he got while recovering from the foot injury last winter all combined to rob him of being ready to compete out of the gate in 2014, a fact that has since been made worse by him trying to cheat on pitches, tinkering with his mechanics, etc. in an attempt to compete.
 

 
If his foot is healthy, it sounds a bit like Buchholz.

 

[Harry Hooper]

You cannot trade Allen Craig.
 
At worst you start him in AAA next year and see if he can hit.
 
Also the money is really not an issue.
 
Honestly, he doesn't cost you 25 man roster spot and he doesn't cost outlandish money yet (especially since we are not close to the luxury tax).  There is no reason to get rid of Craig.  You hold on and hope he returns to form.

 
Agreed, at this point you don't pay $ for him to recover his form with some other team. 

 

[nvalvo]

Craig's AAV is $6.2 million. Not a huge budget issue. 

 

[67WasBest]

Allen Craig, age 29, OPS+ 69 (77 in STL, 28 in BOS)
 
Plenty of guys have a terrible year once or twice in a (very) productive career. I've been wrong about this often on SoSH. I thought Lowell was cooked (age 31, ops+ of 77). I thought it was crazy to sign Johnny Damon after a bad year in Oakland (ops+ of 83 at age 27). Paul Konerko had one very bad year in Chicago (ops+83 at age 27), and some SoSHers hoped the Sox would pounce. I thought that was a terrible idea. Adrian Beltre had bad, if not awful, years (93 ops+, age 26; 83 ops+, age 30) before coming to the Sox for his late career surge. OTOH--looking at the stats--I thought getting Tony Clark was great--and then he had his awful year, as bad as Craig, actually worse (Age 30, 49 ops+), for the Sox; he is the one example who sort of fell off the table, although he had some OK and even very good years as a part-timer thereafter.
 
There must be a study of guys who put up a stinker of a year between ages 27-30 and what it means. Of the examples I can think of, it doesn't seem to mean anything much. It could be something wrong that spells a downward spiral (Clark); usually it means a slump before a return to form (all the the others).
 
I am pretty sure that to have such bad years these guys must all have had very bad stretches in those years when they looked all wrong at the plate.
 
For a while the SoSH consensus was that Craig must be hurt, and can heal and return to form. Maybe, or maybe we should hope that his injury has healed, but led to bad adjustments and he is just slumping. If that's actually the best case, maybe the fact that he is worse with the Sox than with the Cards is, oddly enough, a good sign: he is clearly really slumping. Slumps suck, but they mostly seem to go away eventually.

Excellent post. 
 
Anyone rehabbing will modify their routine during that period.  Whether it be for pain management or simple convenience, the way you do things changes.  Some of those modification of behavior stick around for a time after the injury heals.  The body needs a full cycle of building up and readjustment back to the proper way of doing things.  In the case of many other you mentioned, their return to projections coincided with a return to true health.
 
In my own situation, a broken ankle and a series of knee injuries had modified my posture and gait so dramatically I was way off balance when I tried to hit.  A series of visits to rehab where we worked to get skeleton and muscles properly aligned to find my normal posture and gait, proved the solution.  I had a great following year.  Because of my own experience I had hoped they would shut down Pedroia, Craig and Victorino.  I got two of the three.  With Craig, it might be as much that they want to look at him so they have a basis to compare against his better seasons.  How is he setting up?  Is he compensating somewhere where he may no longer have to compensate.  At least I hope that's why they continue to throw him out there.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Craig's AAV is $6.2 million. Not a huge budget issue. 

Agree. While it would be nice to have that money for someone else if this is what he is now, it's not like having that dead money is really affecting the Sox like it would affect Tampa for example.