You are comparing running up and down the floor in a preseason game with competing in the playoffs with guys who have fought the entire year to get to that point. These two things are not the same.
Cavalry Candidates
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I have seen zero reputable people even suggest it honestly. Only places talking about it are blogs and radio people who don't really understand contracts. I did see Brian Robb get asked about it in a Q&A mailbag and he basically said "yeah they aren't buying out his next year, he'll be on the Hornets into the summer"
Yeah, unless he's willing to take a massive discount to be on someone's playoff roster this year (zero evidence that's how he is wired) the team almost has to try to at least see if something develops to offload him next summer to save some of the money. And they being who they are as an organization may well be fine with him coming back to play 40 games next year and muddling along too
I'll be happy if the C's have a healthy Gallinari coming off the bench next season. The fact that he's so into being a Boston Celtic has really endeared him to me.
As said upthread, there's a chance but it's pretty small.
He's still doing rehab as of last week.
View: https://twitter.com/CelticsCLNS/status/1621553688975130625
Now he might play for the Pats? That ankle recovery must be coming along great.
He's a lights out shooter. like he's been having a fairly good season too. Not sure if that makes OKC more or less likely to trade him - something that may be
"If you have been keeping up with the OKC Thunder season so far, you are aware of just how incredible Mike Muscala’s on/off statistics are with the team. When on the floor, Muscala makes the Thunder a +10.7 differential as the team scores 119.6 points per 100 possessions which places them in the 91st percentile, with 109 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end ranking in the 90th percentile.
Those numbers improve even more when Mike Muscala shares the floor with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, and Jalen Williams that five-man lineup is a +23.2, scoring 126 points per 100 possessions. Though, in a small sample size of just 103 possessions of his 937 possessions played."
https://thunderousintentions.com/2023/01/12/mike-muscala-provide-future-okc-thunder/
So is Galinari significantly better than Muscela? Their career 3pt percentage is nearly identical and Muscela plays better defense…
Boston Celtics buyout market preview: four potential targets - CelticsBlog
Will Barton: According to CelticsBlog’s own Keith Smith, “There’s some mutual interest there.
Justin Holiday
Terrence Ross
Danny Green
Will Barton: According to CelticsBlog’s own Keith Smith, “There’s some mutual interest there.
Justin Holiday
Terrence Ross
Danny Green
Gallinari is a much better offensive player and can get his own shot. Muscala cannot but is a better defensive player. Muscala has also made a huge jump on the last season or so and Gallo is trying to re-learn how to jump.
The obligatory DARKO charts:
Hayward is at least a better version of Sam Hauser, maybe not quite the 3P shooter - but probably better in every other way. I'd certainly enjoy seeing him as the 10-11 guy on a title team.
They overlap positions and roles, but not identical. Muscala is a stretch 5 who can play some 4, Gallo is a 4 who can play small 5 if needed. Muscala's skillset is essentially... decent positional defense as a big, good screen and pop or roll, good catch and shoot. Gallo's skillset is mediocre defender of 4s, below average but not totally toast against big 3s, good 3pt shooter on catch or off the bounce, can drive closeouts.
Gallo's offensive skillset is closer to Grant's than Muscala's really, better driver than Grant, but worse passer.
So they will all be tired and he will be well rested? The only thing I am doing is showing when we could expect Gallo to step onto a basketball court in a game situation based on how long he took last time he did this. His situation may vary. I doubt very much that he will contribute much if anything this year. The guy who would have better idea when he might make it back just traded for Muscala. Which shows you what he thinks.
Considering all of the work he has put in both in rehab and in being a good teammate, I would be happy if he got into a few games. But I won’t be surprised if it’s next year for him.
Tatum, Brown, Smart, White, Brogdon, Horford, Timelord
Hayward would be #8 on this team and would supplant many of the Grant minutes and all of the Hauser/Pritchard minutes.
My point is that stepping onto the court in an exhibition game as a way to work back into playing shape is far away from being prepared to compete in a playoff series. I’d estimate 3-4 weeks away at a minimum.
Grant is a better shooter and a far better defender, especially against the type of guys who are most likely to give the Celtics trouble in the playoffs (Giannis, Embiid). None of it is happening so it doesn't matter, but even though he does a few things Grant can't, he's not taking his minutes.
Far better is pretty strong, he's better against bigger guys, Hayward is probably still better against quick guys, Grant is a better catch and shoot guy, Hawyard is a better off the bounce guy who is a very good passer/facilitator.
I agree no way it happens, but Hayward would likely find a big role here taking a bit from Grant, Brogdon and White as a guy who can run offense when Tatum is on the bench, which is still a bit of a need given the weaknesses of Brown's game, and the way the offense takes a steep decline without Tatum.
Agree that it's not going to happen but Hayward has declined measurably over the last 2 years.
I can't see him taking any Brogdon or White minutes in the playoffs.
He'd be decent injury insurance, that's about it
I can't see him taking any Brogdon or White minutes in the playoffs.
He'd be decent injury insurance, that's about it
I don't know how much people have seen Hayward lately, but this is right. He has a great basketball mind, I'm sure, but his on court impact is negative. The experience is worth something, but "taller, much slower Brogdon" isn't worth that much.
He's absolute garbage now btw, WAY WAY WAY worse than Green or Barton, honestly he's maybe worse than Justin Jackson who was stapled to the bench. I think there are actually guys unsigned right now who are probably better
You're probably right, he was just mentioned in one of the articles. He is hitting 38% from three this season.
Yeah he always gets mentioned because Danny tried to trade for him, and nobody really pays attention to the Magic, but he's at 38% on his lowest volume in 5 years, and it's his best % in those 5 years. He's bad at literally everything else basically now. two years before this were 29 and 33% from 3 on higher volume. He has no ball skills, he doesn't defend much, I just don't see how he ever sees the floor.
I’m concerned the top buyout guys might choose to ring chase with KD in Phoenix; their depth took a major hit with the trade.
I'm firmly in the "Sox fan post '04 World Series" mindset. The angst has dissipated. Would I like it it Stevens adds another role-filling towel-waving guy at the end of the bench? Sure. But this team is ready as is. Muscala was a solid get. If Brad finds another microwave shooter or clamps wing defender I certainly won't complain. But they'd be gravy.
For 15th man Brad could;
1. Do nothing
2. JD or Kabengele. Then reward a Maine player with a 2-way
3. Get the strongest/longest/best defensive WING from the G-league to goon it with Giannis.
4. Potential Buyout POI: Javonte Green's(health?), Stanley Johnson, Diallo, McGruder, Noel, Brisset, Roby and Romeo
Any more potential names out there?
1. Do nothing
2. JD or Kabengele. Then reward a Maine player with a 2-way
3. Get the strongest/longest/best defensive WING from the G-league to goon it with Giannis.
4. Potential Buyout POI: Javonte Green's(health?), Stanley Johnson, Diallo, McGruder, Noel, Brisset, Roby and Romeo
Any more potential names out there?
Those players absolutely should sign with Phoenix over Boston. Both destinations offer a shot at a title run but the Suns opportunity almost certainly offers more potential playing time.
In short even if they end up with, say, a Ross or some other player of similar skills they are likely ok. The Cs are ostensibly in want but don't need mode here which is a really good spot.
I wouldn’t expect anyone from Maine to be added unless it’s Snell. Is he even playing up there? This is a time to prepare for the playoffs it isn’t a player development time or one to be babysitting. I’d expect the signing to be a veteran emergency guy. Barton has always been the name that’s made the most sense to me.For 15th man Brad could;
1. Do nothing
2. JD or Kabengele. Then reward a Maine player with a 2-way
3. Get the strongest/longest/best defensive WING from the G-league to goon it with Giannis.
4. Potential Buyout POI: Javonte Green's(health?), Stanley Johnson, Diallo, McGruder, Noel, Brisset, Roby and Romeo
Any more potential names out there?
I figure Barton & his cohort are making their way to PHX. There are actual minutes for him there
The other side of that coin, PHX has a bitch of a path to be playing in June. Ring odds much higher in our favor.
Looks like Ross is going to end up in Dallas. That’s a nice get for them with teams having to cheat on Doncic and Kyrie. He could be a real good fit in that role.
I would guess that Davison gets that 15th spot by the end of the season so the Celtics can sign him to a Hauser-esque deal this summer.For 15th man Brad could;
1. Do nothing
2. JD or Kabengele. Then reward a Maine player with a 2-way
3. Get the strongest/longest/best defensive WING from the G-league to goon it with Giannis.
4. Potential Buyout POI: Javonte Green's(health?), Stanley Johnson, Diallo, McGruder, Noel, Brisset, Roby and Romeo
Any more potential names out there?
They may juggle between leaving the spot open, and filling it with 10 day contracts before they sign Davison to save Wyc some dough, but I'd guess Davison ends up with it.
I doubt they'll sign anyone besides Davison for a rest of the year contract.
Snell is shooting 48% from 3 but still has a -10.2 net rating over his 5 games in Maine. Shayok is shooting 57/49/94 in 18 games. Davison is at 53/37/75 and averaging 8.5 assists. Kabengele is putting up 19 and 10 with a team best 17.6 net rating. Valentine is doing a bit of everything and has a net rating of 16.5.
Wyc saves a few shekels by using that 15th spot on JD vs a minimum player, right? and also retains some control for next season?
Agreed. BUT given the choice of a JAG (90% of the buyout players available) or JD at half the price & further control, I'd choose Davidson.
I think Davison has given no real indications he's an NBA player and he's locked into the one spot we are very deep, there is zero chance he plays in the playoffs so zero reason to convert him.
A JAG has value if he can reduce Tatum/Brown workloads, and in some cases (Green/Barton) can even give you solid minutes, and play in some playoff matchups.
Now Brad has pointed out, that one concern is that some guys just aren't going to want the "Can play but might not always play" role:
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/02/brad-stevens-reveals-celtics-buyout-market-needs-for-final-roster-spot.html
My guess is they sign somebody from the: Green/Barton/Holiday/Toscano-Anderson/Ross group.
Wyc would save a little, around 250K in salary/tax depending on when a signing would happen.
The reason why they'd do it is if they didn't sign JD and planned to next season instead, he could only sign a minimum deal for two years at most without using an exception.
If they sign him to a minimum deal for this year before the season ends, probably with an option for next year like they did with Hauser, they can decline the option and sign him as a non-Bird free agent for up to 4 years.
The difference is that Hauser showed legitimate signs of being able to compete for minutes this year. JD isn’t going to compete for minutes next year or as CellarDoor said, hasn’t yet done anything to show that he could.
Ok for some reason I thought it was $500K savings in salary and after-tax that would save them $2MM.
Just glad they added a usable 4/5 at the trade deadline. 1-14 is solid.
No doubt. Either Dallas or Phoenix work perfectly for Ross. The Suns needed more guard depth now that Shamet is out indefinitely and having more shooters on the floor with Durant never hurts.
Yup, the downside of having lots of good players is that players who are worse than those players don't want to sign to sit behind the good players.
Even the role of veteran towel waver with NBA gravitas is covered by Blake Griffin.
Brad/Zarren's ability to fill in around the JAYs has been absurd. They have improved on every element 3-14 on this roster over the last 18-mths. Trades, extensions, signings, 2-ways, draft picks, RFA use, undrafted rookies, HC shuffling, players sent packing, etc - the roster mechanics & player movement have been exceptional at every turn. While obvious, Brad even made it public on Day 1 that Tatum/Brown were this team's main engines. No more pining for other NBA superstars.
Has Brad turned into some sort of GM/POBO svengali? Maybe his special skill at Butler was the ability to spot under-recruited talent that would mesh well as a team. How the heck does he pick up a veteran back-up BIG, that hits 3s at 40%, on a super cheap 2yr contract while OKC competes for a playoff spot? A Mike Muscala trade isn't going to grab the headlines, but Milwaukee & the 76ers are cursing out Sam Presti for underwriting TL/Al insurance for free.
Of special note, Bard/Zarren have consistently used the 4/5 spots as a great place to find value while lengthening the roster.
Pretty confident that whatever they do with the 15th spot (Garrison Mathews complaints aside ) will be very clever with an eye toward winning a Championship this year and beyond.
Brad/Zarren's ability to fill in around the JAYs has been absurd. They have improved on every element 3-14 on this roster over the last 18-mths. Trades, extensions, signings, 2-ways, draft picks, RFA use, undrafted rookies, HC shuffling, players sent packing, etc - the roster mechanics & player movement have been exceptional at every turn. While obvious, Brad even made it public on Day 1 that Tatum/Brown were this team's main engines. No more pining for other NBA superstars.
Has Brad turned into some sort of GM/POBO svengali? Maybe his special skill at Butler was the ability to spot under-recruited talent that would mesh well as a team. How the heck does he pick up a veteran back-up BIG, that hits 3s at 40%, on a super cheap 2yr contract while OKC competes for a playoff spot? A Mike Muscala trade isn't going to grab the headlines, but Milwaukee & the 76ers are cursing out Sam Presti for underwriting TL/Al insurance for free.
Of special note, Bard/Zarren have consistently used the 4/5 spots as a great place to find value while lengthening the roster.
Pretty confident that whatever they do with the 15th spot (Garrison Mathews complaints aside
) will be very clever with an eye toward winning a Championship this year and beyond.
I mean, it's possible the Celtics like him more than you or CellarDoor do.
He also wouldn't have to compete for minutes next year, Hauser and Davison are in much different places in their development.
Their calculus could easily just be, is it better for us to trade our non-rotation 25 year old guard that's going to make 4M next year and replace him with a non-rotation 20 year old guard we drafted who will make less than 2M?
I don't know if the Celtics see more in Davison than you do, but if they like him even a little, it would make sense to have him as a back of the roster prospect while saving them money at the same time.
At a minimum, I'd much rather have a young guy like Davison the Celtics can dream on rather than sign next years version of Justin Jackson for the end of the roster.