Yeah, it's summer league but that's pretty much what we're hoping for, right?
Yeah, it's summer league but that's pretty much what we're hoping for, right?
Tatum was knocked for being something of a black hole in college, but he might be more advanced in that regard than Jaylen at this point. That's really the thing holding Jaylen, his passing ability and his handle. It looks to have improved from last year and I doubt he'll be asked to create off the dribble in the Celtics offense this season, but still.Nice line for Tatum for his first summer league game: 8 for 17 from the field, 4 for 5 from the foul line, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, only 1 turnover, a very impressive 5 steals, with a +/- of 7. Fultz was 6 for 16, 3 for 4 from the line, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 turnovers, only 1 steal (but 3 blocks), for a +/- of -12. It's only one little summer league game, but Ainge so far doesn't look dumb at all. (Jaylen had a monster game, marred only by 7 turnovers -- ouch.)
Perhaps creating off the dribble in ISO might be too much to expect, but I saw a couple of moves on the highlights that indicate his footwork on drives is better and his handle tighter (granted it's the highlights). I think we can expect him to leverage a short (1-2) dribble drives more.Tatum was knocked for being something of a black hole in college, but he might be more advanced in that regard than Jaylen at this point. That's really the thing holding Jaylen, his passing ability and his handle. It looks to have improved from last year and I doubt he'll be asked to create off the dribble in the Celtics offense this season, but still.
I agree and I think that improvement will translate at the NBA level, but he'll still be somewhat limited in that regard. That said, I don't think he needs to improve that much to be a good NBA player. If he gets to the point where he can create off the dribble in isolation, he's going to be very good.Perhaps creating off the dribble in ISO might be too much to expect, but I saw a couple of moves on the highlights that indicate his footwork on drives is better and his handle tighter (granted it's the highlights). I think we can expect him to leverage a short (1-2) dribble drives more.
If he improves his handles enough to drive to the hoop, Jaylen will be living at the FT line.Perhaps creating off the dribble in ISO might be too much to expect, but I saw a couple of moves on the highlights that indicate his footwork on drives is better and his handle tighter (granted it's the highlights). I think we can expect him to leverage a short (1-2) dribble drives more.
I do think he will be living at the line, and they will be a lot of 'and 1s' because with that athleticism, confidence and size he is going to finish at the rim.If he improves his handles enough to drive to the hoop, Jaylen will be living at the FT line.
I think he's going to be an ugly (but effective) player to watch on offense along the lines of Butler and Corey Maggette. Brown and Maggette entered the league at the same age w/ 1 year of college and the two had very similar % rates among the 5 box score stats their rookie season, with Maggette improving his assist % a bit his first 4 years in the league. Mostly, Corey's whole offensive game was just putting his head down and driving to the rim or shooting a 16-22 foot jump shot. Those jumpers were far less infuriating when he played though.I do think he will be living at the line, and they will be a lot of 'and 1s' because with that athleticism, confidence and size he is going to finish at the rim.
It's an interesting comparison and I would be happy with that outcome because a Corey Maggette who can shoot the 3 fairly well and who adds defensive value (rather than being a net negative for his career like Maggette) is a very good player. If Jaylen turns into that player and Tatum turns into Pierce (or even Carmelo), I think we'd all be pretty happy.Defense aside, I think we'd all be happy if Jaylen turned into a modern day Corey Maggette offensively (replacing all those 16-22 foot 2s with 3's). I think he'll put up box score lines similar to Corey if he reaches his peak (20points, 6 rebounds, 2-3 assists, negligible amount of steals/blocks), he'll just be more valuable doing it because he'll be better on defense. He'll be more efficient too but that's more a product of today's NBA game.
Such a funny sentence. Tatum becoming Pierce would be as awesome as it is unlikely, but if it ever did happen we'd be extatic no matter what happened with Jaylen.If Jaylen turns into that player and Tatum turns into Pierce (or even Carmelo), I think we'd all be pretty happy.
Celtics coach Brad Stevens has to find the balance between grooming Brown and Tatum for an eventual takeover while keeping All-Stars Hayward and Isaiah Thomas and veteran Al Horford in position to compete for something meaningful in the present. While Brown and Tatum are on different career timelines, Stevens believes what they offer now is in line with the Celtics’ current obligations to win. “Everybody equates development with playing time and I don’t necessarily equate that. And maybe it’s because of the situation we’re in,” Stevens told The Vertical. “But I can’t think of a better opportunity to develop than to have to add value to winning. If you can add value to winning at 19 and 20 years old, that’s a really good thing and when you’re held to that standard, then that is really difficult.”
This. He's already got the frame (wide shoulders, C's believe he is possibly still growing). If he keeps his coordination, he could be a 240lb Tayshaun Prince with better shooting.In another 20 pounds Tatum is going to be a monster. I hope he’s training with Jaylen this summer, because once he gains some real lower body strength he’s going to be a killer in the mid post.
There's a small problem with your math...why would Tatum still be scoring 15 points per game if his shooting dips that much? I would think if you updated his scoring totals based on the rate decrease you outline (~12.75ppg), you may get a few more players.Super early, but here is a fun comparison:
Tatum is averaging 15/5 on 50/50/85 shooting.
Now he won't shoot 50 from 3 or likely 50 from the floor, so lets go to 45 from the floor and 40 from 3. I wonder how many rookies have done 15/5 on 45/40/85.....
Oh... none. not a single one in the 3 pt era.
OK let's drop the FT%, 45/40/80....
Hey I found one.... Larry Bird (age 23).... and that's it.
OK, let's go with 45/35/80...
Two more... Mitch Richmond and Karl Anthony Towns.
If you eliminate 3 point shooting as a requirement, in the 3pt era you add:
Michael Jordan
Magic Johnson
Larry Johnson
Dave Greenwood
CHristian Laetner.
Basically, Tatum is quietly putting up an all-time great rookie season early on.
Pierce is a much better comparison for Tatum. As it turns out for good reason, when his father took over training him in high school he had JT spend hours breaking down tape of Paul Pierce as a model of what he should be. It's why you see so much of Pierce's post game and even that little jab step step back jumper he uses.This. He's already got the frame (wide shoulders, C's believe he is possibly still growing). If he keeps his coordination, he could be a 240lb Tayshaun Prince with better shooting.
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but the only 19 year olds in the top 100 are LeBron and KG. So, that’s pretty good company.Best rookie seasons by BPM (Tatum currently 19th, and younger than everyone ahead of him).
He has the 2nd best TS% on the list (Who is Mason Plumlee? is the correct question), so my guess he's going to have to continue to shoot well to keep on that list.Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but the only 19 year olds in the top 100 are LeBron and KG. So, that’s pretty good company.
Beasley's problem wasn't really talent, it was drugs (marijuana, primarily). Tatum sure seems to have the skills and basketball IQ. Work at it, add good weight, stay healthy, and avoid stupid stuff... sky's the limit. However, for this season, I'd like to see them cut back on his minutes and let others (like Morris) fill in. It's a long season for rookies, and we're hoping/expecting the Celtics' season goes even longer. I don't want the 19 year old worn out by March....Still, overall, not the worst list. Beasley is the only one in Tatum's cohort age-wise (just 53 days older than Tatum at the start of their respective seasons), and the worst in that list by a good margin, but hopefully Tatum doesn't hit a ceiling early and then tail off like Beasley.
Simmons is a 21yr old monster and seems to be only getting better game by game. If Tatum puts on muscle (like Brown did this offseason) is he our answer to Giannis and Simmons? But with a better strokeBest rookie seasons by BPM (Tatum currently 19th, and younger than everyone ahead of him).
Tatum looks very good.Simmons is a 21yr old monster and seems to be only getting better game by game. If Tatum puts on muscle (like Brown did this offseason) is he our answer to Giannis and Simmons? But with a better stroke
Giannis at 19, wasn’t. That said, they are different types of players. Tatum’s upside is something likeTatum looks very good.
Giannis is a legitimate MVP candidate.
This is much closer to my point. They don't call Giannis "the Freak" for nothing; he's not a player you should really use in comparisons.Giannis at 19, wasn’t. That said, they are different types of players. Tatum’s upside is something like
Paul Pierce. A perennial All Star player who a team can win with, but not a league MVP.
Danny Leroux had a good point during the Dunc’d On podcast the other night. He said that the reason that some guys look so good statistically when compared to historical averages is that you are comparing a handful of games at the beginning of the season to full 82 game stats. “Let’s get to 40 games into the season and we’ll talk.”Best rookie seasons by BPM (Tatum currently 19th, and younger than everyone ahead of him).
Of course. It's unlikely Tatum is the best 19 year old ever but it's still exciting that he is opening the season in a way that makes it possible he will be.Danny Leroux had a good point during the Dunc’d On podcast the other night. He said that the reason that some guys look so good statistically when compared to historical averages is that you are comparing a handful of games at the beginning of the season to full 82 game stats. “Let’s get to 40 games into the season and we’ll talk.”
We’re talking about Juan Pena, right?Of course. It's unlikely Tatum is the best 19 year old ever but it's still exciting that he is opening the season in a way that makes it possible he will be.
It's like have a starting pitcher with an ERA of 1 after his first 3 starts. That's an awesome start to the season but it doesn't mean he's going to put up a 1999 Pedro performance.
The difference in basketball is that the eye test is more useful. So Tatum's stats are validated by the fact that he looks very comfortable on defense, and is extending his range and improving his willingness to fire from 3 when open. In baseball, how a pitcher "looks" tells you a lot less, so you can't update your evaluations as quickly.Of course. It's unlikely Tatum is the best 19 year old ever but it's still exciting that he is opening the season in a way that makes it possible he will be.
It's like have a starting pitcher with an ERA of 1 after his first 3 starts. That's an awesome start to the season but it doesn't mean he's going to put up a 1999 Pedro performance.
I'll follow that tangent!Sort of a tangent but I don't think the "eye test" is any more or less useful in one sport compared to another.
I think being put on Durant on D (a mistake that was rectified pretty quickly) threw him for an early loop and made it tough for him to get in the game as he otherwise would have. The finish was very encouraging. Salvaging tough games and persisting through a slump or bad stretch is a sign of great things to come.Tatum's performance against the Warriors was quietly impressive.
For most of the first 3 quarters, he really did look like a rookie who was overwhelmed by the moment. He was't getting involved in the offense, wasn't contrinuting in other ways, was occasionally schooled on defense. At one point mid game, he was -25 (for the game he was -18).
From near the end of the third quarter onward, he was a different guy. Scored a key bucket towards the end of the 19-0 run, provided 7 points in the 4th quarter, including those 2 free throws that iced the game with 6 second left.
His late production was crucial. Without him figuring it out and contributing, the Celtics don't win the game.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21438641/zach-lowe-10-things-like-featuring-pelicans-nbaSkeptics imagined rookie-year Tatum as a defensive liability who would indulge in too many Carmelo Anthony-style midrangers. Nope. Tatum has been adequate on defense, and about 70 percent of his shots have come either at the rim or from 3-point range. He is one of those guys who moves really fast along the horizontal plane. He's a glider. He finishes smoothly in traffic with either hand, and navigates with the confidence of a five-year veteran.
Meanwhile, Markelle Fultz is shooting left-handed, Jimmy Butler isn't shooting much at all, Jae Crowderlooks like he aged five years over the summer, and Irving is playing unselfishly (by his standards). Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens might be warlocks.