Celtics in 18-19

Cesar Crespo

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You haven't seen any of these things because Bender literally hasn't really touched the ball. His usage rate is absurdly low for the player he was projected to be (and as one of the articles I posted mentioned his touches per minutes). From the games I've watched, the Suns guards spent a ton of time pounding the ball into the floor. Plus, Bender is like the 19th youngest person in the League prior to this draft. To me, It's still too early to declare him a Jan Vesely level bust and if I could pick him for pennies on the dollars, I'd certainly do it.

We'll have to agree to disagree but note that the various Suns blogs that I've posted who apparently watch every minute of every game are marginally higher on Bender than Chriss.
What do you think Bender's ceiling is? Like, a comparable player value wise if not skill wise.
 

benhogan

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They would be such a terrible fit together and a new GM is certainly going to want to move youth that he didn't draft for veterans who fit into a LeBron-led team. Ideally, LeBron signs and Simmons is moved to a team for a 3rd quality starter to add to Embiid that will take the Fultz contract for that right.

Simmons, Fultz, and Covington to the Clipper for Tobias Harris, Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley. Who says no? The Clippers get to build around Simmons with DeAndre, Covington, two low lottery picks, and a flier on Fultz while the Sixers trot out a 9-man rotation that complements LeBrons game throughout the lineup.

LeBron
Embiid
Harris
Redick (re-sign)
Beverley

Saric
Williams
McConnell
Mikal Bridges (#10)
I know you feel that LeBron and Simmons can't coexist together. But this trade is completely nutty from the Sixers perspective (and I like all those Clipper players).

If Simmons is moved, which I highly doubt, it would be for someone like Kawhi.

The Sixers would be inclined to play Simmons and LeBron together for the gate/ratings alone. They'll know pretty quickly if it won't work. If forced they could get a nice haul for Simmons mid-season. But I'd expect they'd be 1 or 2, in the East, with Boston next season.

IMO part of the attraction for LeBron to play in Philly would be the ability to play off the ball. And to play with fellow Klutch Sport's "Young King" Ben Simmons. I suspect LeBron's brain trust (Rich Paul/Maverick Carter) would use Philly as a platform to win multiple championships and recruit/build Klutch Sports up (although Los Angeles would be more attractive for Klutch)
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Come on. The Sixers say no. You just traded two #1 overall picks, including the likely rookie of the year for three guys who all been dealt as salary fodder in the past 12 months. To say nothing of Robert Covington, who is a plus asset on that contract. And I like Tobias Harris and Pat Beverly, but come on. They would burn the Wells Fargo center to the ground if that happened.
The old GM certainly would never trade the #1's he selected but the new guy, say Griffin, is looking to build the best team around LeBron while not necessarily looking to win the trade based on individual value......that fictitious Sixer team I listed is the EC favorite. The new guy would have zero ties to TFRC (The Fultz Reclamation Project) which should be completely off the table once you acquire LeBron. All he's doing is clogging up your payroll. Personally I'd love to see Simmons out there with LeBron if he ends up in Philly rather than having the floor spread with Harris and Williams as they would not be as good of a team. I have no idea what Simmons would do when LeBron is in iso/creation mode X-% of the time.

If Simmons is moved, which I highly doubt, it would be for someone like Kawhi.

The Sixers would be inclined to play Simmons and LeBron together for the gate/ratings alone. They'll know pretty quickly if it won't work. If forced they could get a nice haul for Simmons mid-season. But I'd expect they'd be 1 or 2, in the East, with Boston next season.
IMO part of the attraction for LeBron to play in Philly would be the ability to play off the ball. And to play with fellow Klutch Sport's "Young King" Ben Simmons. I suspect LeBron's brain trust (Rich Paul/Maverick Carter) would use Philly as a platform to win multiple championships and recruit/build Klutch Sports up (although Los Angeles would be more attractive for Klutch)

* The Kawhi swap makes a ton of sense for both teams while using Bayless and filler for salary matches.

* I've heard the LeBron off the ball talk too and it hurts my head. Why would you want play the greatest player of our generation still in the prime of his career off the ball when he is most dangerous with the ball and creating? "Come to Philly, LeBron. You can defer to a 21-year old who can't shoot the basketball." Not exactly a great selling point.



EDIT: Didn't see this discussed in BC Burner thread. Mods if you could move that would be great.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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What do you think Bender's ceiling is? Like, a comparable player value wise if not skill wise.
I assume you mean realistic ceiling. If so, then I'd say that Bender could still be a very useful rotational piece. Probably not a starter. Maybe someone like our very own Daniel Theis or Zach Collins.

Here's an interesting piece I just saw on the value of having a 5 who can hit three-pointers: https://www.thestepien.com/2018/05/21/big-men-playoff-takeaways-2018-draft/. I agree that the odds of having Bender turn into Al or Kevin Love are miniscule but look at the Wiz - they spent more than a few minutes playing Mike James at the 5 spot in the playoffs.

My only point is that Bender has two more years on his rookie contract and I suspect that even if he doesn't produce at all, someone would take a flyer on him in his RFA year. He's had a couple of short stretches (maybe 5 games apiece) where he's put up some decent numbers.

So maybe he is playing in Europe in 2021-22 but to call him a bust right now seems premature.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I assume you mean realistic ceiling. If so, then I'd say that Bender could still be a very useful rotational piece. Probably not a starter. Maybe someone like our very own Daniel Theis or Zach Collins.

Here's an interesting piece I just saw on the value of having a 5 who can hit three-pointers: https://www.thestepien.com/2018/05/21/big-men-playoff-takeaways-2018-draft/. I agree that the odds of having Bender turn into Al or Kevin Love are miniscule but look at the Wiz - they spent more than a few minutes playing Mike James at the 5 spot in the playoffs.

My only point is that Bender has two more years on his rookie contract and I suspect that even if he doesn't produce at all, someone would take a flyer on him in his RFA year. He's had a couple of short stretches (maybe 5 games apiece) where he's put up some decent numbers.

So maybe he is playing in Europe in 2021-22 but to call him a bust right now seems premature.

I think a lot of people are talking past each other then. This whole discussion started when someone mentioned trading Rozier for Chriss... I said I'd prefer Bender over Chriss but would prefer neither if the cost was Rozier. Then a few others agreed that they would rather have Bender than Chriss. No one actually suggested they would trade Rozier for Bender.

I'd definitely take a flyer on both Chriss and Bender and think they have considerable higher ceilings than you, but it sounds like you are talking more about realistic outcome. And did you actually mean Zach Collins, the 20 year old rookie in Portland? Huh? If Benders ceiling actually was Collins or Theis, that is a huge bust at 4th overall. I could see it being his most likely outcome, and that is not a player you trade anything of value for.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think a lot of people are talking past each other then. This whole discussion started when someone mentioned trading Rozier for Chriss... I said I'd prefer Bender over Chriss but would prefer neither if the cost was Rozier. Then a few others agreed that they would rather have Bender than Chriss. No one actually suggested they would trade Rozier for Bender.

I'd definitely take a flyer on both Chriss and Bender and think they have considerable higher ceilings than you, but it sounds like you are talking more about realistic outcome. And did you actually mean Zach Collins, the 20 year old rookie in Portland? Huh? If Benders ceiling actually was Collins or Theis, that is a huge bust at 4th overall. I could see it being his most likely outcome, and that is not a player you trade anything of value for.
I was responding to someone who said that he couldn't see Bender being even an average player at any point.

So you are correct, I was actually describing his "most realistic scenario" rather than his true ceiling. I don't think I know what his true ceiling is. If he's hitting 40% of his 3Ps, he's extremely valuable even if he doesn't rebound well. Probably more valuable than KO, given the fact that Bender has the footspeed to guard on the perimeter and KO doesn't. Given how valuable 3&D guys are in the NBA, if he hits 44% of his 3P shots, isn't he a taller Otto Porter?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I guess it also depends on what an average player is. Is it the 7th guy on the roster? Is it Marcus Morris?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I guess it also depends on what an average player is. Is it the 7th guy on the roster? Is it Marcus Morris?
Are you implying that Morris is a 7th man? He got stuck in that role here but he's a clear cut starter/30+ mpg guy on nearly any other team in the NBA both this past season and moving forward.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Are you implying that Morris is a 7th man? He got stuck in that role here but he's a clear cut starter/30+ mpg guy on nearly any other team in the NBA both this past season and moving forward.
How many minutes does the average basketball player get? 20-25? Just by pure math, an average NBA player would be the 1st-3rd guy off your bench. If someone asked you to name an average NBA player, who would you name?
 

tims4wins

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How many minutes does the average basketball player get? 20-25? Just by pure math, an average NBA player would be the 1st-3rd guy off your bench. If someone asked you to name an average NBA player, who would you name?
Al Horford. Duh.
 

the moops

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2016/2017 version of average baseketball player
Jeff Teague, Victr oOladipo, Demarre Carroll, Markief Morris, Jonas Valanciunas is your starting 5
 

HomeRunBaker

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How many minutes does the average basketball player get? 20-25? Just by pure math, an average NBA player would be the 1st-3rd guy off your bench. If someone asked you to name an average NBA player, who would you name?
I'd name a 4th-5th option who is average based on a teams 9-10 man rotation. Someone like JJ Redick would qualify to me as would Morris but not because he's a 7th man but as he's a 4-5 on most teams.
 

mauf

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I guess it also depends on what an average player is. Is it the 7th guy on the roster? Is it Marcus Morris?
Most advanced stats either have an explicit league average (0 for BPM, 15 for PER), or one that can be easily calculated (Bask-Ref says league average WS/48 is about 0.1). So a player who checks in around those numbers is presumably a league-average player, at least before we get into traits not well-measured by statistics.

Theis’s numbers are actually above average, but my eyes tell me there’s some SSS quirkiness there, so I assumed some regression to the mean and called him “average-ish.”
 

DJnVa

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We can move on. Just don't be too surprised after the Finals is over and this Lebron to the Celtics talk heats up.
I won't be surprised if you bring it back up.

However if it shows up in legit sources, that's a different story.
 

Big John

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Since we are discussing wildly unlikely sceanarios (e.g. LeBron to Boston), why not Dirk Nowitzki? Morris for Nowitzki straight up. Give Dirk one more chance at a ring instead of wasting away on a lottery team.
 

Spelunker

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<checks back into thread>
<sees conversation about 18/19 Celtics is still somehow entirely about Lebron>
<checks back out>
 

finnVT

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So, resetting post-draft, and assuming no Kawhi type deal is coming, the roster currently looks something like:

Irving / Smart(RFA) / Rozier
Hayward / Tatum / Brown / Semi
Horford / Morris / Theis / Williams

That's 105m+Smart. I'm guessing they try to get Baynes on a ~5m deal, and either re-sign Smart or use the MLE on a replacement for him. That would round out the top 12 and put them at 118-122m, depending on Smart. If I'm Dallas or someone who wants Smart, I probably have to offer 14m+, because for the C's to match they probably end up in lux tax land and start the clock, which I'm guessing they'd want to avoid.

That leaves Yabu, Nader, Bird, Allen outside the top 12. At Yabu's salary, I would think he's a prime candidate to get shipped off if they re-sign Smart.

In addition to an exciting top 5 (either starting or ending) of Irving-Brown-Hayward-Tatum-Horford, that feels like a really solid rotation all the way down to 12/13.
 
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nighthob

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I expect Boston to pursue Leonard this summer with a Smart/Rozier/Morris/secondary picks package. If they can't make any headway there I expect them to re-sign Smart and look around for a landing spot for Rozier, since he stands to get a much bigger offer in free agency.

I think the Nader experiment is probably over, they can just trade him with sufficient cash to pay the contract for a future #2 with protections that make it unlikely to ever convey.
 

ifmanis5

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Celtics can't roll into next year with just Kyrie and a scrub PG. They have to keep either Rozier or Smart and work on limiting Kyrie's regular season minutes. They have to keep him fresh and healthy for the playoffs.
 

lovegtm

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Celtics can't roll into next year with just Kyrie and a scrub PG. They have to keep either Rozier or Smart and work on limiting Kyrie's regular season minutes. They have to keep him fresh and healthy for the playoffs.
Hayward is a perfectly fine lead ball-handler, and it's not that hard to sign a random PG to bring the ball up for 15 minutes a game in the regular season.
 

ifmanis5

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Hayward is a perfectly fine lead ball-handler, and it's not that hard to sign a random PG to bring the ball up for 15 minutes a game in the regular season.
My expectations for Kyrie are 30-32 minutes a game and missing a minimum of 10 games. That means they need more than a Rando. Dudes like Shane Larkin usually don't hold up for a full season.
 

BigSoxFan

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My expectations for Kyrie are 30-32 minutes a game and missing a minimum of 10 games. That means they need more than a Rando. Dudes like Shane Larkin usually don't hold up for a full season.
You really won't need to worry because SA isn't taking a package of Smart/Rozier/Morris/non Sac picks when they have Murray and now Walker. Celtics and Spurs don't really match up well for a trade unless Danny makes the Sac pick available, which I highly doubt he does. The Spurs also seem intent on playing this out for several months. The quality of their offers aren't going to substantially change between now and this fall.
 

ifmanis5

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You really won't need to worry because SA isn't taking a package of Smart/Rozier/Morris/non Sac picks when they have Murray and now Walker. Celtics and Spurs don't really match up well for a trade unless Danny makes the Sac pick available, which I highly doubt he does. The Spurs also seem intent on playing this out for several months. The quality of their offers aren't going to substantially change between now and this fall.
All good points. I don't think Danny is doing a KL deal anyway but who knows.
 

JCizzle

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My expectations for Kyrie are 30-32 minutes a game and missing a minimum of 10 games. That means they need more than a Rando. Dudes like Shane Larkin usually don't hold up for a full season.
Maybe a Rondo at the minimum instead?
 

BigSoxFan

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All good points. I don't think Danny is doing a KL deal anyway but who knows.
Yup. The team is basically set now barring decisions on Smart and Baynes. If Kawhi does become available, Philly will be far more motivated to make a Kawhi deal than Boston and now they have the Miami 2021 pick as a sweetener to add to Saric/Covington/Fultz.
 

snowmanny

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Since Ainge's only and relentlessly chased goal is to put together a team that can legitimately compete for a title, and since his timeline for creating said team appears to be right now, I am presuming that he thinks this team as presently constructed (or with around the edges tweaking) is good enough.
 

Reverend

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Since Ainge's only and relentlessly chased goal is to put together a team that can legitimately compete for a title, and since his timeline for creating said team appears to be right now, I am presuming that he thinks this team as presently constructed (or with around the edges tweaking) is good enough.
I can't wait to see the finalized roster. It looks so brilliantly, elegantly constructed to just... drive opponents completely nuts. Interchangeable pieces with everyone having cross- or secondary abilities, fierce effort... it's like a SpecOps unit.
 

nighthob

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Celtics can't roll into next year with just Kyrie and a scrub PG. They have to keep either Rozier or Smart and work on limiting Kyrie's regular season minutes. They have to keep him fresh and healthy for the playoffs.
That would be conditional of them trading for Leonard. Long term they're either keeping Smart or moving on from both of them within the next 12 months (the latter being my expectation).
 

nighthob

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Yup. The team is basically set now barring decisions on Smart and Baynes. If Kawhi does become available, Philly will be far more motivated to make a Kawhi deal than Boston and now they have the Miami 2021 pick as a sweetener to add to Saric/Covington/Fultz.
This is my expectation, that when the Spurs finally put him on the market the Sixers look to turn Saric, Covington and lottery tickets (Fultz, their 2019 #1, and the Miami #1) into Leonard and roll with Embiid/Simmons/Leonard in the front court and Redick/Smith in the backcourt.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is my expectation, that when the Spurs finally put him on the market the Sixers look to turn Saric, Covington and lottery tickets (Fultz, their 2019 #1, and the Miami #1) into Leonard and roll with Embiid/Simmons/Leonard in the front court and Redick/Smith in the backcourt.
Agreed. I think the Spurs would be crazy to pass up a Saric/Covington/Sixers 2019 (#1 protected)/Miami 2021 unprotected for Kawhi deal if Philly is desperate enough to offer it for a rental.

Aldridge / Gasol
Saric / Metu
Covington / MLE
Green / Walker
Murray / Mills / White

Obviously not a title contender but that's a playoff team with Pop's coaching, which is the best they could ask for since they don't appear to want a full rebuild.
 

Reverend

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The new practice facility looks good. So much for the Hellanic Flu.
Make work a place people don't want to leave.

That place is legit. Although the flag segue made me laugh out loud. That said, I think I could live there quite happily.
 

nighthob

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Agreed. I think the Spurs would be crazy to pass up a Saric/Covington/Sixers 2019 (#1 protected)/Miami 2021 unprotected for Kawhi deal if Philly is desperate enough to offer it for a rental.
Philly can’t further encumber the 2019 pick, either they trade it or they don’t. And it doesn’t make much sense to kill adding Kawhi and put themselves in the same class as Golden State and Boston over the minuscule chance at getting #1 and hoping that that wing turns out as well as Leonard does.
 

nighthob

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Isn't the 2019 pick untradeable until they find out if it's not being sent to Boston from the Tatum trade?
No, they can trade the rights to their pick, they just can’t encumber it because it’s previously encumbered. Whomever they traded the pick to would inherit all the rights, including the Sacramento pick if it landed #1.
 

BigSoxFan

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No, they can trade the rights to their pick, they just can’t encumber it because it’s previously encumbered. Whomever they traded the pick to would inherit all the rights, including the Sacramento pick if it landed #1.
Which actually makes the 2019 Philly pick more valuable since there would be about a 5-14% chance of that pick going #1. If they offer that and the Miami 2021 pick with Saric/Covington, I just don’t see how anyone in the EC beats that for a rental.
 

lovegtm

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Which actually makes the 2019 Philly pick more valuable since there would be about a 5-14% chance of that pick going #1. If they offer that and the Miami 2021 pick with Saric/Covington, I just don’t see how anyone in the EC beats that for a rental.
I would hold out for Fultz as part of the package if I were SA. The value if he recovers his jumper is so high, and Philly seems down enough on him that they'd crack and put him in.
 

joe dokes

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I can't wait to see the finalized roster. It looks so brilliantly, elegantly constructed to just... drive opponents completely nuts. Interchangeable pieces with everyone having cross- or secondary abilities, fierce effort... it's like a SpecOps unit.
I want to see Johnathan Gibson stashed at the end of the bench so he can play every couple of weeks, score 30, give up 25, and help the Celtics win by 5.