It's funny that after all the rending of garments and gnashing of teeth, 3 of the 5 best projected teams are in the East, and Boston is pretty clearly a serious title contender if healthy, since we already know how well the Cs match up defensively against GSW.Houston, Philly and Toronto all at 54.5
I suspect that the management will trade whomever they have to to hit the under on that one.I like Brooklyn over 32.5, a lot.
Loving the fact that Boston has the 2nd highest O/U (57.5 to 62.5 for GSW) and the Kings have the 2nd lowest (25.5 to the Hawks' 23.5)These are the most recent over-under numbers from Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Atl 23.5
Bos 57.5
Brk 32.5
Cha 35.5
Chi 27.5
Cle 30.5
Dal 34.5
Den 47.5
Det 37.5
GS 62.5
Hou 54.5
Ind 47.5
LAC 35.5
LAL 48.5
Mem 34.5
Mia 41.5
Mil 46.5
Min 44.5
NO 45.5
NY 29.5
OKC 50.5
Orl 31.5
Phi 54.5
Phx 28.5
Prt 41.5
Sac 25.5
SA 43.5
Tor 54.5
Uth 48.5
Wsh 44.5
Ya' think? I like Marks and Atkinson a lot and so have been reading about the Nets on a regular basis. They both stated that they won't tank this season and think that the best way to attract 2 Max players, nay the only way, will be to show a good team of high level bench players that work their asses off every night and make the playoffs. They appear to think that adding 2 Max players for nothing but money will be more valuable to their long term goal than adding the 6th pick in the 2019 draft. Whether they can add 2 real good in their prime max players versus adding so players Kemba and Butler, is the story left untold. Or would Kemba and Butler be good enough for them? Their culture is team, family, work. They want to show a very good base team this year and then entice said Max FA's to sign up to lead those base players.I suspect that the management will trade whomever they have to to hit the under on that one.
Really? I like Spurs over as a near lock.I won't have time to run my over/under projections under mid-September I expect, but I'm inclined to go under on the Spurs fwiw.
It is a high bar for Atlanta. That roster is terrible and I think they'll tank down the stretch to keep a high pick. 20 wins is probably closer to where they end up.I actually think Atlanta is a decent over. 24 is not a high bar.
I'm under on the Spurs as well. Pop is a magician but he'll struggle to get that team above .500. Not only is Kawhi gone, but so is Danny Green, Tony Parker and Kyle Anderson. Say what you want about the individual talents of those players, but the Spurs have worked because of culture and continuity and most of that went out the door this offseason. They are light on shooting and questionable on defense and there are not a lot of bottom feeders in the west for them to rack up wins on.Really? I like Spurs over as a near lock.
Chris Sheridan touted Spurs when the number first came out at 40.5 before the money moved it. Says his "correct" number is 50.5. I'm in the high-40's camp and expect Dejounte to take another leap this year. Losing Kawhi and Parker off last years team doesn't touch the needle as they had no impact.Really? I like Spurs over as a near lock.
Agreed. I think the Spurs number is quite low. They won 47 without Kawhi and now that distraction is gone. Danny Green is a decent player but he's a role player. Ditto for Kyle Anderson. Parker didn't impact much either.Chris Sheridan touted Spurs when the number first came out at 40.5 before the money moved it. Says his "correct" number is 50.5. I'm in the high-40's camp and expect Dejounte to take another leap this year. Losing Kawhi and Parker off last years team doesn't touch the needle as they had no impact.
Curious as to why?If I was in Vegas and I could take the over on the Blazers only winning 39 games I might bet everything I own.
Weren't the Red Sox projected to be the sixth best team in the league before the season started?Good news, bad news. The Celtics are only the 6th best team in the league, 2nd in the East. The good news is that the Kings are the worst:
Seven: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/powerrankings_2018preseason/ranking-mlb-teams-ahead-2018-seasonWeren't the Red Sox projected to be the sixth best team in the league before the season started?
You probably can find an online book with similar oddsIf I was in Vegas and I could take the over on the Blazers only winning 39 games I might bet everything I own.
I don't think they're a particularly good team or have any chance of making noise in the West playoffs, but I also don't see how an offense with McCollum, Lillard, and Nurkic goes four games under .500. They were 49-33 last season and have kept the main core together. Yes, a lot of the West teams improved but there are still a lot of bottom feeders out there.Curious as to why?
Westgate has them at 41.5 games and Pelton has them at 42 so 39 doesn't seem like a huge outlier. They lost a somewhat useful player I'm told in Ed Davis, didn't really improve the team otherwise, and certain teams around them got better.
Maybe they win more than 39 games, but taking the over on the Cs at 53 seems like a much better bet (if I were a betting man).
edit: Pacers over 43 also seems like a much better bet as Chris Sheridan points out.
In the West it's really only Sacramento and Phoenix. The next tier up — Dallas, Memphis, LAC — all have real potential to be decent; and everyone else looks at minimum pretty good. The zero-sum win rule kinda dictates that at least a couple of Western teams are going to underperform what one would expect based on looking the quality of their rosters in a vacuum. No idea if Portland is one of those teams, though...I don't think they're a particularly good team or have any chance of making noise in the West playoffs, but I also don't see how an offense with McCollum, Lillard, and Nurkic goes four games under .500. They were 49-33 last season and have kept the main core together. Yes, a lot of the West teams improved but there are still a lot of bottom feeders out there.
Yeah I'm with you on the Blazers. Their win total was inflated by one extremely hot 13-game win streak. Also, their top 3 players were healthy for nearly the entire season. A lot of things went Portland's way last year on the way to 49 wins and they really didn't do anything to improve this summer.Curious as to why?
Westgate has them at 41.5 games and Pelton has them at 42 so 39 doesn't seem like a huge outlier. They lost a somewhat useful player I'm told in Ed Davis, didn't really improve the team otherwise, and certain teams around them got better.
Maybe they win more than 39 games, but taking the over on the Cs at 53 seems like a much better bet (if I were a betting man).
edit: Pacers over 43 also seems like a much better bet as Chris Sheridan points out.
Average Eastern Conference team won 40.2 games last year. The average Western Conference team won 41.8 games.So I took the projected (by Vegas) win totals for all of the EC teams vs the WC teams. The EC teams averaged 39.6 wins and the WC teams averaged 43.7.
Correct me if my logic is wrong, but if you took the under on every WC team and the over on every EC team, you would be a favorite to come out ahead, unless the win totals for just a few teams have been significantly underprojected or overprojected.
Your arbitrage edge is less than the vig. You'd make money if you got totally even -100 odds on each bet, but that's not the case in the real world, sadly.So I took the projected (by Vegas) win totals for all of the EC teams vs the WC teams. The EC teams averaged 39.6 wins and the WC teams averaged 43.7.
Correct me if my logic is wrong, but if you took the under on every WC team and the over on every EC team, you would be a favorite to come out ahead, unless the win totals for just a few teams have been significantly underprojected or overprojected.
Yes that's right. The edge isn't nearly as big as I thought at first. I do think that some of the Vegas projections are wrong, but that's true in both conferences.Your arbitrage edge is less than the vig.
You are spot on...On the other hand the difference between Kawhi and Derozan is thought by some to be very very large.
All true, but let's not discount the disgruntled aspect. He doesn't want to play for them and will be gone to LA at season's end.You are spot on...
DeRozan's career BPM average is -0.6 with last season his best at 1.8. Kawhi Leonard's career BPM is 6.3 and excluding last year because of the tiny sample size, his last two full seasons were his best at 8.3 and 7.9 respectively. People can make an argument that Leonard has to prove that he can stay healthy but if DeMar's season last year is representative of what he can do going forward while Kawhi regresses to his career average, the difference is still very, very large.
I am a DeRozan fan but let's be blunt here. He is not a top ten player by virtually all measures. Kawhi, if healthy, is arguably in the top three or four.
Even if KL is disgruntled (which I know I just mentioned myself, I just think it’s important to take note of) or maybe even if he’s 80%(?) healthy, he is enough of an upgrade from DeRozan to make up for the difference on Green to Poeltl and I’m not even sure there’s a deficit on that swap.Toronto won 59 games because their second unit was outstanding. We'll see if that unit plays as well this year with Danny Green in the mix instead of Poeltl.
The argument that Hayward will take minutes away from Tatum is not well- reasoned. Hayward will take minutes away from Morris and Ojeleye, not Tatum. And if Tatum gets fewer touches, it will be due to the return of Kyrie, who is a ball dominant player. It won't have anything to do with Hayward.
He also is coming off a major injury. He's not a top five player until proven otherwise.All true, but let's not discount the disgruntled aspect. He doesn't want to play for them and will be gone to LA at season's end.
I can't wait for the season to start either. The East will be a lot of fun to watch.That said, I wouldn't be shocked if Toronto is as good or better than they were last season. Nurse should, at worst, be as good as Casey and his familiarity with most of his personnel and the offense gives him a unique leg up over many other first time NBA coaches. And as was mentioned upthread, Leonard at full strength makes the Raptors better.
In any event, these two teams are going to be fun to watch as they jockey to be the top seed in the East with the 76ers, Pacers and Bucks on their heels. The season really cannot start soon enough.
Meh. I'm not all that worried about the Bucks given that most of those vets play the same position as Thon Maker and Henson. There's only so many minutes at the C position.The team that frightens me is Milwaukee, not Toronto or Philadelphia. The Bucks have added veteran role players to go along with Giannis and Middleton, and they will be very dangerous.