I know this is '19-'20 talk in a '18-'19 thread, but since we're digressing...if Kyrie walks, and I sincerely hope he doesn't, would it make sense to go after Kemba? So then build around Kemba, Horford, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown?
They’d still be over the cap, so they can’t go after Kemba because he’s going to be sorting through a pile of max deals. The way forward would be to either hope that Brown and Tatum hit their top end projection and that they turn up gold with the Memphis pick or to make a trade (as they did with Irving).I know this is '19-'20 talk in a '18-'19 thread, but since we're digressing...if Kyrie walks, and I sincerely hope he doesn't, would it make sense to go after Kemba? So then build around Kemba, Horford, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown?
Ah, thanks. I've always liked Kemba, but I'm a big fan of Beal as well.They’d still be over the cap, so they can’t go after Kamba because he’s going to be sorting through a pile of max deals. The way forward would be to either hope that Brown and Tatum hit their top end projection and that they turn up gold with the Memphis pick or to make a trade (as they did with Irving).
The one team with an all star looking to blow things up is Washington, so Beal is probably the most realistic target.
Per your observation, its clear that other teams know how to attack Boston and force them into the mismatches they want. As you know, its basic NBA stuff. That said, amongst the many personnel issues, the Celtics inability/unwillingness to clamp down seems to be pretty glaring. Outside of Smart, Horford and maybe Brown (lately), they lack players capable of playing consistent defense. Baynes and Theis, for all of their energy and hustle, don't have the skill to keep up with better bigs while Irving, Tatum, Morris, Rozier and Hayward either won't or cannot sustain good defensive effort.I've said this before but I think the biggest problem for the Cs is that for some reason they aren't - maybe can't - take advantages of mismatches. I mean look at the Spurs tonight - they can go to LMA in the post or switch DeRozen onto virtually anyone and both those guys can either force the defense to break down or get a bucket if the Cs stay one-on-one.
But other than Kyrie, no one can do that consistently for the Cs. However, they have lots of people trying it.
It's like everyone thinks they are 15% better than they really are.
Clearly, Baynes Hogan won't take this sitting down.That said, amongst the many personnel issues, the Celtics inability/unwillingness to clamp down seems to be pretty glaring. Outside of Smart, Horford and maybe Brown (lately), they lack players capable of playing consistent defense. Baynes and Theis, for all of their energy and hustle, don't have the skill to keep up with better bigs while Irving, Tatum, Morris, Rozier and Hayward either won't or cannot sustain good defensive effort.
It shows in the team defensive ratings (I know that stat sucks but absent something better it works for this point) where Boston is 10th overall after starting the first part of the season eighth. Just picking another stretch where the C's have had problems, since February 1st, the Celtics are 15th in D-rating.
Its seems obvious that Ainge/Zarren will remedy this in the offseason one way or another. If Kyrie is staying, they will get him more wing help - at present, the pairing of him and Morris together yield the lowest team D-Rating of all the regulars.
My post did not say Baynes was the problem. His defense has been consistent and decent. But he is limited, currently by ailments and overall by his athleticism.Clearly, Baynes Hogan won't take this sitting down.
I didn't see tonights mess but I imagine your opinion is being driven by Aldridge's big scoring night (AB was a -7)
BUT Aron Baynes is not a problem defensively. The fact is the guy has played banged up all season and still has by far the best defensive rating in the rotation (Theis isn't far behind). He also had by far, the best defensive rating last season when he started. So you can't use that match-up nonsense HRB touts (unless you are attaching yourself to this bogus theory)
https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1
https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season
How is it matchup nonsense when Brad has spotted his minutes toward utilizing him in the most advantageous matchups in his limited minutes? You just said this yourself by including "In the games he started." The worst thing for a role player is to be overexposed.Clearly, Baynes Hogan won't take this sitting down.
I didn't see tonights mess but I imagine your opinion is being driven by Aldridge's big scoring night (AB was a -8)
BUT Aron Baynes is not a problem defensively. The fact is the guy has played banged up all season and still has by far the best defensive rating in the rotation (Theis isn't far behind). He also had by far, the best defensive rating last season when he started. So you can't use that match-up nonsense HRB touts (unless you are attaching yourself to this bogus theory)
https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1
https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season
He started over 80% of Celtic games last season. Games he didn't start were due to his being banged up from playing the 5. His minutes were against whomever the other team started at the 5 at the start of the1st and 3rd Quarters (ie the opponents best BIG). Brad wasn't playing AB against some inferior BIGS which makes Baynes stats look better than he really is (which has been your case, unless you are backtracking on that?)How is it matchup nonsense when Brad has spotted his minutes toward utilizing him in the most advantageous matchups in his limited minutes? You just said this yourself by including "In the games he started." The worst thing for a role player is to be overexposed.
Skipping over the Kemba stuff, but unless there's been some backroom talk between Irving, Stevens, and Ainge that they completely understand his frustration and that next year is a fresh start with AD running beside him, I don't think there's any way he's back. Shorter: I believe Irving likely said "if you can't bring AD in, I'm leaving". Simple as that.I know this is '19-'20 talk in a '18-'19 thread, but since we're digressing...if Kyrie walks, and I sincerely hope he doesn't, would it make sense to go after Kemba? So then build around Kemba, Horford, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown?
Hey, nighthob's Durant scenario is still in play!Skipping over the Kemba stuff, but unless there's been some backroom talk between Irving, Stevens, and Ainge that they completely understand his frustration and that next year is a fresh start with AD running beside him, I don't think there's any way he's back. Shorter: I believe Irving likely said "if you can't bring AD in, I'm leaving". Simple as that.
As a leader he has a lot of excuses--"Wait til we're at full strength" and "The postseason is really what matters".I do know that Kyrie jacking up deep threes and then blaming Brad after the Charlotte game convinced me he'll probably never have any self awareness and I should stop expecting him to change after each promising news conference.
Well, he gets to use those excuses... but only once. If they go out 4-2 in the first round then he can't be taken seriously any more.As a leader he has a lot of excuses--"Wait til we're at full strength" and "The postseason is really what matters".
But as frustrated as we are on outside, it's gotta be even worse on the inside. It just sucks to have almost punted an entire season.
This is Wrong, Wrong, and more Wrong.He started over 80% of Celtic games last season. Games he didn't start were due to his being banged up from playing the 5. His minutes were against whomever the other team started at the 5 at the start of the1st and 3rd Quarters (ie the opponents best BIG). Brad wasn't playing AB against some inferior BIGS which makes Baynes stats look better than he really is (which has been your case, unless you are backtracking on that?)
Basketball is getting to be like baseball with pltoon players playing against certain teams and not others. Even at the high school level I had a big kid this year that simply was unplayable against teams with lots of 3pt shooters, but other games he played lots.This is Wrong, Wrong, and more Wrong.
The games which Baynes did not start had nothing to do with some fake belief running around here that playing the 5 gets you more "banged up" than playing any other position. Brad did not start Baynes against specific teams in MULTIPLE GAMES to avoid bad matchups. Without going through each game Baynes didn't start here is a sample of EC teams we saw on more than one occasion during the year.......
Brooklyn - starterd Booker at 5, Hollis-Jefferson and Carroll at 3/4 (matched Baynes up with Mozgov and J.Allen on second unit)
Milwaukee - started Maker at 5, Giannis at 4 (matched Baynes up with Monroe on second unit)
Cleveland - started Love at 5, LeBron at 4
Orlando - stared A.Gordon at 4 (to avoid matchup v. Horford). Only game Baynes started v. Magic was when Gordon was out.
Was Baynes "banged up" only when these above teams were on the schedule or did Brad actually utilize a strategy of avoiding terrible matchups as listed?
In Round 1 of the playoffs, Brad tried starting Baynes against Milwaukee then we lost 2 straight including a blowout and he played sparingly the rest of the series. Did he get "banged up" following those two losses? Yes, i'm being jokingly fake abtuse here
In Round 2 of the playoffs he started every game v. Philly. Healthy, the best healthy, #trump
Prior to Round 3 Aron got hit with the "injury bug" again and didn't start any of the first 4 games. Following 2 losses, he mixed it up and started Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7.
Some are attempting more 3s than MLB players get PA. (On a side note, when you think of 3 point % like batting average, it helps put the variance into perspective). The 3 point shot has changed the game so much.Basketball is getting to be like baseball with pltoon players playing against certain teams and not others. Even at the high school level I had a big kid this year that simply was unplayable against teams with lots of 3pt shooters, but other games he played lots.
We're on to 2010.So weird. But since they've apparently checked out on the regular season, I kinda have too. When round 1 starts, I'm back on board, but no more team meetings or bonding plane trips in this regular season will make me think they've figured it out.
Ugh, gone down the rabbit hole again.This is Wrong, Wrong, and more Wrong.
The games which Baynes did not start had nothing to do with some fake belief running around here that playing the 5 gets you more "banged up" than playing any other position. Brad did not start Baynes against specific teams in MULTIPLE GAMES to avoid bad matchups. Without going through each game Baynes didn't start here is a sample of EC teams we saw on more than one occasion during the year.......
Brooklyn - starterd Booker at 5, Hollis-Jefferson and Carroll at 3/4 (matched Baynes up with Mozgov and J.Allen on second unit)
Milwaukee - started Maker at 5, Giannis at 4 (matched Baynes up with Monroe on second unit)
Cleveland - started Love at 5, LeBron at 4
Orlando - stared A.Gordon at 4 (to avoid matchup v. Horford). Only game Baynes started v. Magic was when Gordon was out.
Was Baynes "banged up" only when these above teams were on the schedule or did Brad actually utilize a strategy of avoiding terrible matchups as listed?
In Round 1 of the playoffs, Brad tried starting Baynes against Milwaukee then we lost 2 straight including a blowout and he played sparingly the rest of the series. Did he get "banged up" following those two losses? Yes, i'm being jokingly fake abtuse here
In Round 2 of the playoffs he started every game v. Philly. Healthy, the best healthy, #trump
Prior to Round 3 Aron got hit with the "injury bug" again and didn't start any of the first 4 games. Following 2 losses, he mixed it up and started Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7.
Yes. Which is why I'm all in for postseason.Well, he gets to use those excuses... but only once. If they go out 4-2 in the first round then he can't be taken seriously any more.
Is it only 14?Yes. Which is why I'm all in for postseason.
But they've used up all the regular season excuses, with the 14 players meetings and the cross-country flight nonsense.
I am curious why you think the Cs seem to be resistant to employing a move that seems so blatantly obvious to you? Is Stevens/Ainge/Zarren ignoring or unable to access data that you see?Ugh, gone down the rabbit hole again.
Baynes played restricted minutes at the end of November 2017 (banged up knee) that's when he mostly did not start. As soon as Baynes was healthy he pretty much started the rest of the season. But whatever, Baynes was a huge net positive in 2017-18 and a huge net positive in 2018-19. Most importantly the Celtics are extremely effective when he starts or plays at the 5 with Horford at the 4. And as I have stated and proven numerous times before Al Horford played his best basketball from the 4 last season and this season. Maybe if we saw Al at the 4 more (like we did last season) this team wouldn't underperform as much as it has this season.
"Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7"
1. Tristen Thompson scores 2 points in Game 6
2. TT scores 10 pts and Celtics miss 100 3pt shots in Game 7
Baynes 19mins in each game was hardly the culprit in that Series.
I wish I knew DeJesus, because all of those guys have forgotten more about basketball then I'll ever know.I am curious why you think the Cs seem to be resistant to employing a move that seems so blatantly obvious to you? Is Stevens/Ainge/Zarren ignoring or unable to access data that you see?
Again, these guys are not above criticism - I have questions about all of them after the way the season has played out, especially Ainge on roster composition.
However for some reason, they appear to be ignoring something you and some others here see as an easy fix to some of the team's problems. What are they missing? Data? An understanding of matchups?
That is entirely fair. And to reiterate, I think questioning all these people is entirely appropriate.I wish I knew DeJesus, because all those guys have forgotten more about basketball then I'll ever know.
I do think the game is evolving to a faster game (pace) and the thoughts of creating an offensive juggernaut by having "5 scorers/multiple wings/small ball" on the floor at once was/is enticing. Brad did play "small" to great success at Butler and he has a lot of the same analytics guys now, maybe they have a bias?
A couple of weeks ago, I (and others around here) noticed Brad & Co capitulated and started playing Horford/Baynes together again. Injuries have slowed that attempt.
Hindsight is 20-20, but it seems like Morris should've been moved around the deadline, as:That is entirely fair. And to reiterate, I think questioning all these people is entirely appropriate.
As I said, I wonder if we have given Ainge too much credit for his grocery shopping. Morris, in particular, now seems like a bad fit though his performance down the stretch last year as well as early in the season make his presence defensible. That said, he has never been a great defender and his offense wasn't that great either. Between contract year pressures and his spotty defense, they appear to have miscalculated on the fit.
The problem is that if Ainge et al were worried enough about Hayward's recovery and Brown/Tatum's development to keep Morris around, they were right to do so. However he simply wasn't the answer, especially playing along side Irving, when it was all said and done.
Your MaMo assessment sounds logical and accurate.That is entirely fair. And to reiterate, I think questioning all these people is entirely appropriate.
As I said, I wonder if we have given Ainge too much credit for his grocery shopping. Morris, in particular, now seems like a bad fit though his performance down the stretch last year as well as early in the season make his presence defensible. That said, he has never been a great defender and his offense wasn't that great either. Between contract year pressures and his spotty defense, they appear to have miscalculated on the fit.
The problem is that if Ainge et al were worried enough about Hayward's recovery and Brown/Tatum's development to keep Morris around, they were right to do so. However he simply wasn't the answer, especially playing along side Irving, when it was all said and done.
Let's not "Whatever"......let's look at what actually happened logically. Yes, there was a window of games when he was on a minutes restriction. During that window were games against Orlando and Brooklyn, two teams Brad didn't start him against in other "non-minutes restricted games" as i pointed out above, Golden State, and Dallas who are two other poor matchups with 3's masquerading as 4's......but wait! During that same window he DID start against Miami and Whiteside so the "Didn't start due to minutes restriction" does really pass here since he actually DID start during that window but NOT against the bad matchups of Orl, Brk, Dal, and GSt.Baynes played restricted minutes at the end of November 2017 (banged up knee) that's when he mostly did not start. As soon as Baynes was healthy he pretty much started the rest of the season. But whatever
Hmmmm, so maybe Brad does understand matchups and how to maximize production with his two bigs while limiting/eliminating the bad matchupsBaynes was a huge net positive in 2017-18 and a huge net positive in 2018-19. Most importantly the Celtics are extremely effective when he starts or plays at the 5 with Horford at the 4. And as I have stated and proven numerous times before Al Horford played his best basketball from the 4 last season and this season.
Or more likely we'd perform worse as we'd no longer have those same favorable matchups as when Brad does play them together?Maybe if we saw Al at the 4 more (like we did last season) this team wouldn't underperform as much as it has this season.
"Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7"
1. Tristen Thompson scores 2 points in Game 6
2. TT scores 10 pts and Celtics miss 100 3pt shots in Game 7
Baynes 19mins in each game was hardly the culprit in that Series.
I do think the game is evolving to a faster pace
It's funny because this is basically the same team as last year. It's just that . . . .I suppose there will always be time left until they're eliminated, but I was thinking this morning that this team is the most disappointing and unlikeable Boston group since the beer and chicken Red Sox of 2011. I've gone from continuously expecting them to figure it out, to thinking perhaps the issue is just effort that will be solved with the intensity of the playoffs, to fully expecting the team to self-destruct in the 1st or 2nd round. It's such a contrast to the insanely likeable Celtics of way back in....last season. I suppose the 2011 Red Sox quickly morphed into the 2013 Red Sox so it only takes a couple changes to have one of the most likeable teams ever become one of the least likeable - or vice versa.
I don't know why or who to blame. This isn't just the weight of expectations. If my fears are realized, hopefully Ainge and Brad have a good idea of what is causing the problems. I do know that Kyrie jacking up deep threes and then blaming Brad after the Charlotte game convinced me he'll probably never have any self awareness and I should stop expecting him to change after each promising news conference.
My eyeballs tell me that when Kyrie comes in in the 4th quarter, the Celtics are sometimes reeling and need more of a steadying presence than they are of scoring. There are nice glimmers where Kryie is a facilitator - dishing behind the back for a MaMo or a Horford straight-up three - but so often he goes into desperation scorer mode immediately and it's out of place. It seems to aggravate the teams issues as much as it leads to a positive outcome. The team needs Kyrie to be a leader-as-a-facilitator lots of times, not a leader who sucks all the air out of the room and does not enable his very talented teammates to also score. Which they can.The traditional and advanced metrics certainly say that Kyrie is excellent, which is also backed up by eyeballs. I'd like to know what some resident coaches/tape watchers have to say about the style of basketball they play with him on the court, as the sets seem to devolve into hero-ball with aggravating regularity. Is it basketball, or just Kyrie wizardry ball they're playing?
The Celtics will need to tighten up their leaky defense to turn anything around. Per cleaningtheglass, Boston, who led the league in '17-18 with the fewest points per 100 possessions allowed, are fifth overall this season. However, if you Van the data - and I think its warranted in this case - they fall to 10th in the league since the start of 2019. And since February 1st, they are 20th!It's funny because this is basically the same team as last year. It's just that . . . .
I went back and looked at a couple of box scores from the 16 game winning streak. KI, Al, MM, JB, JT, and MS were all getting 30+ minutes. Everyone else - TRoz, Baynes, and Ojeleye (usually) were getting less than 20. Basically, everyone knew their roles. And they were, as we all know, a supremely likeable team.
But fast forward to this year, and as I said in the game thread, it seems that everyone thinks they are 15% better than they really are (except Al, and I do include GH in this). Plus, Brad is trying to get 8 guys substantial minutes. Plus Plus the reason they are not fun to watch is that they don't seem to trust each other.
I don't know if they are going to turn it around. Part of turning it around is going to be realizing that it is unlikely that everyone can put up stats in every game. Will be interesting to see.
They were first in defense last year. Do they miss Larkin that much? Or is Hayward that bad a defender? Maybe Baynes missing time has an effect, but other than that I have a hard time concluding that personnel is the issue.Defense seems easier to fix than offense so that is their only hope. Again, it may be a function of their personnel. They simply don't have that many good defenders on the roster and opposing teams have keyed on this.
I say this as a Kyrie fan, but I'm getting a little bit tired of the 4 feet behind the line 3PA. Yes, he makes some of them, but I've got to think he's hitting those at no better than a 20% clip. In a similar vein, I also feel like he a little bit too often is being a bit lazy on offense in the 4th quarter - bringing the ball up and just launching a 3PA with 18 seconds left on the clock. You don't need to do it all, Kyrie. Let's keep moving the ball around.My eyeballs tell me that when Kyrie comes in in the 4th quarter, the Celtics are sometimes reeling and need more of a steadying presence than they are of scoring. There are nice glimmers where Kryie is a facilitator - dishing behind the back for a MaMo or a Horford straight-up three - but so often he goes into desperation scorer mode immediately and it's out of place. It seems to aggravate the teams issues as much as it leads to a positive outcome. The team needs Kyrie to be a leader-as-a-facilitator lots of times, not a leader who sucks all the air out of the room and does not enable his very talented teammates to also score. Which they can.
Completely agree and also think this team is nowhere without Kyrie. The issue isn't him, it's the lack of structure and definition to player roles which leads him to fall back on being "too dog scorer" almost out of instinct.I say this as a Kyrie fan, but I'm getting a little bit tired of the 4 feet behind the line 3PA. Yes, he makes some of them, but I've got to think he's hitting those at no better than a 20% clip. In a similar vein, I also feel like he a little bit too often is being a bit lazy on offense in the 4th quarter - bringing the ball up and just launching a 3PA with 18 seconds left on the clock. You don't need to do it all, Kyrie. Let's keep moving the ball around.
In general, I think Kyrie is not a ball hog and he makes a lot of excellent passes (he's probably at a career high for assists this year). It's just that in the fourth quarter he seems to be trying to do too much on his own, teams are double / triple / quadruple teaming him and he's not shooting for as high a percentage when we need baskets the most. Of course, it doesn't help that the whole team seems to keep going ice cold in the 4th - but Kyrie needs to try and make sure the Celtics stick to their game plan, even when the game is tight.
This is one way to look at it.This is Wrong, Wrong, and more Wrong.
The games which Baynes did not start had nothing to do with some fake belief running around here that playing the 5 gets you more "banged up" than playing any other position. Brad did not start Baynes against specific teams in MULTIPLE GAMES to avoid bad matchups. Without going through each game Baynes didn't start here is a sample of EC teams we saw on more than one occasion during the year.......
Brooklyn - starterd Booker at 5, Hollis-Jefferson and Carroll at 3/4 (matched Baynes up with Mozgov and J.Allen on second unit)
Milwaukee - started Maker at 5, Giannis at 4 (matched Baynes up with Monroe on second unit)
Cleveland - started Love at 5, LeBron at 4
Orlando - stared A.Gordon at 4 (to avoid matchup v. Horford). Only game Baynes started v. Magic was when Gordon was out.
Was Baynes "banged up" only when these above teams were on the schedule or did Brad actually utilize a strategy of avoiding terrible matchups as listed?
In Round 1 of the playoffs, Brad tried starting Baynes against Milwaukee then we lost 2 straight including a blowout and he played sparingly the rest of the series. Did he get "banged up" following those two losses? Yes, i'm being jokingly fake obtuse here
In Round 2 of the playoffs he started every game v. Philly. Healthy, the best healthy, #trump
Prior to Round 3 Aron got hit with the "injury bug" again and didn't start any of the first 4 games. Following 2 losses, he mixed it up and started Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7.
I have the same questions you and others here do. How can a team that is largely the same in terms of players year over year have such a dramatic fall off?They were first in defense last year. Do they miss Larkin that much? Or is Hayward that bad a defender? Maybe Baynes missing time has an effect, but other than that I have a hard time concluding that personnel is the issue.
It wasn’t one game vs Orlando. It was all but one game which is the one Gordon sat out. Booker played for Brooklyn that year and they didn’t start even a stretch 4 they started two 3’s and Brad protected Horford from playing out of position in these games as well as protecting him from LeBron and Giannis. Brad just didn’t treat Horford unfairly even when the team was short handed by forcing him to essentially defend 3’s in these games. Now that he’s added another ring around his trunk and we have a much deeper frontcourt it is even less necessary to have him playing out of position. Again, when they do play together this year it has been against two large and someone immmobile bodies. I expect that part to continue when these situations occur.This is one way to look at it.
Another could be, from the time Baynes took over the starting role around Thanksgiving, the only games Baynes didn't start were games where either Lebron or Giannis were starting at the 4 for their opponents(and oddly one game against Orlando)
I'd say Baynes not starting had a whole lot more to do with keeping Horford off of Lebron/Giannis than Baynes not being able to deal with Thon Maker and Trevor Booker.
Seems to me Lebron/Giannis could be much more the exception of who Baynes can't start against, more than a rule that he shouldn't start against almost anybody.
Right, he didn't start against Orlando early in the season, he wasn't the full time starter then.It wasn’t one game vs Orlando. It was all but one game which is the one Gordon sat out. Booker played for Brooklyn that year and they didn’t start even a stretch 4 they started two 3’s and Brad protected Horford from playing out of position in these games as well as protecting him from LeBron and Giannis. Brad just didn’t treat Horford unfairly even when the team was short handed by forcing him to essentially defend 3’s in these games. Now that he’s added another ring around his trunk and we have a much deeper frontcourt it is even less necessary to have him playing out of position. Again, when they do play together this year it has been against two large and someone immmobile bodies. I expect that part to continue when these situations occur.
This is getting tedious. I have zero interest in discussing Aron Baynes usage in November 2017 and I'm a Baynes junkie. It's irrelevant to this season..
I'm not anti-Baynes/Horford it's just that as you say below here the game is getting faster which is why we see much less of this combo along with us not being shorthanded anymore.
Thanks for doing that work, it's a pretty instructive way to look at the falloff. I think it's becoming increasingly obvious to most here that Morris is a liability on the defensive end. To put his DRPM in context, he's 91st out of 98 power forwards. It ends up being a coaching failure that he's not playing fewer minutes. I've been a Stevens fan, but his rotations have sure been puzzling this year. He also needs to get Kyrie playing more within the system.I have the same questions you and others here do. How can a team that is largely the same in terms of players year over year have such a dramatic fall off?
Is it coaching? I know that satisfies some narrative around these parts. Or is it something else?
Regarding their personnel, its worth noting that by most freely available metrics, several Celtic players have fallen off in defense. Since we all acknowledge problems with D-Rating, let's use another imperfect stat in DRPM. Here are the stats YTD vs the '17-18 numbers:
Horford '18-19: 2.02 '17-18: 2.68
Baynes '18-19: 2.43 '17-18: 3.81
Theis '18-19: 1.89 '17-18: 1.68
Irving '18-19: 0.49 '17-18: -1.35
Tatum '18-19: 0.61 '17-18: 1.97
Morris '18-19: -1.29 '17-18: -1.29
Brown '18-19: 0.50 '17-18: 0.91
Smart '18-19: 1.59 '17-18: 1.61
Rozier '18-19: -0.04 '17-18: 0.04
So, Hoford and Baynes are still very good but not as good as last season - presumably due to age and injuries. Theis is a little better, Irving is significantly better, though we know he has some size limitations and gets attacked because of it. Smart is pretty much consistently good, Morris is consistently bad while Tatum and Brown have both fallen off. Rozier is essentially the same.
I know this data is imperfect but if I had to guess, the Celtics front-court woes coupled with Morris inability to play defense leaves them exposed on multiple fronts. Its just conjecture though and NBA teams have much better metrics to use. Were I coaching against Boston though, there seem to be several attractive switches to take advantage of here. And were I running the team, I am not sure I see an obvious in-house solution to those vulnerabilities.
By these numbers, the only guys who have fallen off dramatically are Baynes (has been injured), Al (has been injured), and JT (precipitous decline).I have the same questions you and others here do. How can a team that is largely the same in terms of players year over year have such a dramatic fall off?
Is it coaching? I know that satisfies some narrative around these parts. Or is it something else?
Regarding their personnel, its worth noting that by most freely available metrics, several Celtic players have fallen off in defense. Since we all acknowledge problems with D-Rating, let's use another imperfect stat in DRPM. Here are the stats YTD vs the '17-18 numbers:
Horford '18-19: 2.02 '17-18: 2.68
Baynes '18-19: 2.43 '17-18: 3.81
Theis '18-19: 1.89 '17-18: 1.68
Irving '18-19: 0.49 '17-18: -1.35
Tatum '18-19: 0.61 '17-18: 1.97
Morris '18-19: -1.29 '17-18: -1.29
Brown '18-19: 0.50 '17-18: 0.91
Smart '18-19: 1.59 '17-18: 1.61
Rozier '18-19: -0.04 '17-18: 0.04
So, Hoford and Baynes are still very good but not as good as last season - presumably due to age and injuries. Theis is a little better, Irving is significantly better, though we know he has some size limitations and gets attacked because of it. Smart is pretty much consistently good, Morris is consistently bad while Tatum and Brown have both fallen off. Rozier is essentially the same.
I know this data is imperfect but if I had to guess, the Celtics front-court woes coupled with Morris inability to play defense leaves them exposed on multiple fronts. Its just conjecture though and NBA teams have much better metrics to use. Were I coaching against Boston though, there seem to be several attractive switches to take advantage of here. And were I running the team, I am not sure I see an obvious in-house solution to those vulnerabilities.
I have no insight into how Stevens manages his rotations but again, I think he does so with significant input from the front office. The tricky part of this is that they are dealing with human beings and a guy like Morris, who is playing for his next contract, may not react well to having his minutes curtailed. The younger players can be managed a bit more because they are...young and Irving, Smart and Horford have their roles. Of course, losing and overall inconsistent play also has its challenges so who knows if its the right approach.Thanks for doing that work, it's a pretty instructive way to look at the falloff. I think it's becoming increasingly obvious to most here that Morris is a liability on the defensive end. To put his DRPM in context, he's 91st out of 98 power forwards. It ends up being a coaching failure that he's not playing fewer minutes. I've been a Stevens fan, but his rotations have sure been puzzling this year. He also needs to get Kyrie playing more within the system.
nice DeJesus, yep lots of questions... you know where I stand, but I'll throw out some more questions.I have the same questions you and others here do. How can a team that is largely the same in terms of players year over year have such a dramatic fall off?
Is it coaching? I know that satisfies some narrative around these parts. Or is it something else?
Regarding their personnel, its worth noting that by most freely available metrics, several Celtic players have fallen off in defense. Since we all acknowledge problems with D-Rating, let's use another imperfect stat in DRPM. Here are the stats YTD vs the '17-18 numbers:
Horford '18-19: 2.02 '17-18: 2.68
Baynes '18-19: 2.43 '17-18: 3.81
Theis '18-19: 1.89 '17-18: 1.68
Irving '18-19: 0.49 '17-18: -1.35
Tatum '18-19: 0.61 '17-18: 1.97
Morris '18-19: -1.29 '17-18: -1.29
Brown '18-19: 0.50 '17-18: 0.91
Smart '18-19: 1.59 '17-18: 1.61
Rozier '18-19: -0.04 '17-18: 0.04
So, Hoford and Baynes are still very good but not as good as last season - presumably due to age and injuries. Theis is a little better, Irving is significantly better, though we know he has some size limitations and gets attacked because of it. Smart is pretty much consistently good, Morris is consistently bad while Tatum and Brown have both fallen off. Rozier is essentially the same.
I know this data is imperfect but if I had to guess, the Celtics front-court woes coupled with Morris inability to play defense leaves them exposed on multiple fronts. Its just conjecture though and NBA teams have much better metrics to use. Were I coaching against Boston though, there seem to be several attractive switches to take advantage of here. And were I running the team, I am not sure I see an obvious in-house solution to those vulnerabilities.
Baynes has started every game after Hayward went down with the exception of the two Milwaukee games prior to not starting the first Orlando game. The second Orlando game was during his minutes restricted period when he also didn’t start against the Magic. The 3rd Orlando game, which he also didn’t start, came in the middle of a 17 game stretch when this was the only opponent who he didn’t start against. The 4th Magic game he did start.....when Gordon was out. It is really that hard to recognize that Aaron Gordon is a bad matchup for a 5?Right, he didn't start against Orlando early in the season, he wasn't the full time starter then.
He took over the starters role permanently on November 30th. From then he started against everybody except Lebron/Giannis at the 4, and the one Orlando game. Started against everybody else. Again, think that's much more about keeping Horford off those guys then anything to do with Baynes. Not wanting to go Horford/Baynes against 3 specific guys shouldn't rule out going Horford/Baynes against everybody else.
It is relevant to understand that starting Baynes was never part of the plan last season until Hayward went down, Morris and Smart missed 30 games plus Horford and Jaylen missed another dozen.....yet despite being forced to start due to attrition he was still moved to the bench against multiple opponents to protect Horford.This is getting tedious. I have zero interest in discussing Aron Baynes usage in November 2017 and I'm a Baynes junkie. It's irrelevant to this season.
If you want to discuss this season lets get down to where you and I stood when the season started and during the course of the season, because there seem to be some communication issues here.
Sounds like you are adjusting your stance. I have gone back and re-read posts to confirm my recollection:
1. You were and have been anti-Horford at the 4 all season. I can point out a dozen posts from you stating this to mcpickl and myself.
Are you changing your stance here?
Even if Horford is as effective chasing wings 25-feet from the basket playing out of position as he is defending the paint you are losing a ton on the other end by playing Baynes over Morris or Tatum. As close as Brad is to losing this team by starting and inferior player with guys in contract years this would have been the final nail in the coffin. Brad couldn’t find enough minutes for everyone out of the gate without playing two bigs together which is why he didn’t. There are still some teams for short minutes when I’m in favor of it but there aren’t a ton of them.2. I've always thought it was best to use Baynes against the largest BIG on the other team. I applauded Brad when he did this versus Toronto on Nov. 16th (when Valanciunas wasn't starting and Baynes matched up with him) earlier this season. You know this since you commented at that time and I explained that it's always been matchup dependent in my book. I believe that opponents largest BIG usually resides in their starting line up(~80% of the time) but not always. When an opponent starts small then starting MaMo is fine. I've posted as much several times since pre-season (post #715 on Page 15 on this thread for one)
3. Al Horford is the team's best defensive 4 by a mile, you have claimed Al Horford would get torched in the new Pace and Space era and have sited Wilson Chandler, Dorian Finney-Smith, and PJ Tucker as 4s Horford can't cover. mcpickl has stated there are 20 starting power forwards (4s) from last season that are starting this season. Al Horford played All-Star level defense at the 4 last season, all of sudden because the PACE has gone up 3 possessions/gm, Horford can't play the 4??? that's ridiculous.
4. Aron Baynes/Al Horford combo barely played together the first 30 games they were healthy together this season (less than 30 minutes). So NO, Brad hasn't been matching up at all to start this season. He incessantly played small ball, which you applauded. Al Horford has played less than 5% of his minutes at the 4 this season. Most of that time has happened over the last month and the Jan. 18 @ Memphis game. Its worked every time because the defense improves dramatically, Horford is a more efficient offensive player than MaMo, Baynes sets screens/picks, the offense isn't stagnant and AB hustles back to get into defensive position (which works better then MaMo's jog back after a miss in the Pace n Space Era).
I can re-post all the NBA.com advanced metrics to prove this if you like?