Celtics-Raptors 2nd Round--Dethrone the Champs

Imbricus

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You can go full Zapruder from 1:53 - 2:03
Thanks. Painful to watch, but to me, this just illustrates the weakness of the zone again.

You've got Tatum -- one of your two best defenders -- guarding no one on the far side of the court. I guess he's waiting for someone to come into his area of the zone, but it seems kind of crazy when you watch him all alone, out there, as Anunoby parks himself on the other side of the court, unmolested.
 

RedOctober3829

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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0aLmBCXoqA


You can go full Zapruder from 1:53 - 2:03

1. Brown screwed up the zone coverage, by fronting and getting sealed by Gasol

2. Anyone that wants to blame Theis, just observe where Theis ends up with the ball in the air, before it hits OG's hands. He had the middle covered. In fact, by the time the ball hits OGs hands, Theis is on the other side of the lane right behind JB

3. Smart instructs Brown at 1:58 to not lose OG on his backside. Brown ignores Smart, and fronts Gasol
I watched the sequence like 10 times last night and I still think Theis made an error. Tatum was there to pick up anybody that was flashing to the corner. If Theis just got in his way, passed him off to Tatum, and stayed at the top of the key it would have made Brown's job a lot easier. I also agree with you that Brown had to sag off Gasol a bit more but even a few feet matters when it comes to where Theis was. I disagree that he had the middle covered. He reacted over too late. If Theis was in the area he was before the play started, Brown may not have felt the need to go as far to Gasol as he did.

As you know, it's not necessarily just one person's error in a zone that leads to breakdowns. The C's defended it so that Toronto had to execute a very low percentage 3rd option and they did.
 

benhogan

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Thanks. Painful to watch, but to me, this just illustrates the weakness of the zone again.

You've got Tatum -- one of your two best defenders -- guarding no one on the far side of the court. I guess he's waiting for someone to come into his area of the zone, but it seems kind of crazy when you watch him all alone, out there, as Anunoby parks himself on the other side of the court, unmolested.
OG's shot gets sent 5 rows deep, Hakeem Warrick style, if JB plays the zone correctly
 

bankshot1

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It Tatum follows OG, then FVV, the Raps best shooter, and who was probably option #1, is free to continue to the near-corner for the pass and an open-3, but Tatum held the zone, and FVV broke off his route to the corner.
 

BaseballJones

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OG's shot gets sent 5 rows deep, Hakeem Warrick style, if JB plays the zone correctly
Or doesn't get hugged for a half second by Gasol. Not gonna complain about a no-call, but that's what Gasol did. Smart, cagey, veteran move that held Brown up just enough. And it made all the difference in the world.
 

benhogan

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I watched the sequence like 10 times last night and I still think Theis made an error. Tatum was there to pick up anybody that was flashing to the corner. If Theis just got in his way, passed him off to Tatum, and stayed at the top of the key it would have made Brown's job a lot easier. I also agree with you that Brown had to sag off Gasol a bit more but even a few feet matters when it comes to where Theis was. I disagree that he had the middle covered. He reacted over too late. If Theis was in the area he was before the play started, Brown may not have felt the need to go as far to Gasol as he did.

As you know, it's not necessarily just one person's error in a zone that leads to breakdowns. The C's defended it so that Toronto had to execute a very low percentage 3rd option and they did.
Yea, I'd agree that Brown thought he had to cover for Theis.

But I believe after looking at 2:00 and 2:01 Theis would have had Gasol covered in the lane.

It was a half-second mistake by Brown.

JB just isn't a very good zone player its been that way all season
 

benhogan

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Or doesn't get hugged for a half second by Gasol. Not gonna complain about a no-call, but that's what Gasol did. Smart, cagey, veteran move that held Brown up just enough. And it made all the difference in the world.
Yep that's a smart seal by Gasol and never called by the refs.

MG knew he had JB out of position
 

Imbricus

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Yeah, it definitely looks like Theis is partly at fault, for shading over so far toward Jayson. But look at 1:59. Whether it's the zone or the way these guys are misplaying the zone, the court is terribly unbalanced. You've got Theis and Tatum both focusing on Van Vleet. Anunoby is totally in the clear. I would think he wouldn't be that free if they were playing man to man, and if he was someone's responsibility.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, it definitely looks like Theis is partly at fault, for shading over so far toward Jayson. But look at 1:59. Whether it's the zone or the way these guys are misplaying the zone, the court is terribly unbalanced. You've got Theis and Tatum both focusing on Van Vleet. Anunoby is totally in the clear. I would think he wouldn't be that free if they were playing man to man, and if he was someone's responsibility.
Brown just has to be 3-5 feet away from Gasol on his backside. Then JB has a looping pass to MG defended and a looping cross-court pass defended.

basic zone principles. JB had to cover the backside
 

bankshot1

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If I had to point a finger its at Theis. He seemed redundant following FVV into Tatum's area.

Asking JB to cover Siakim-Gasol-OG in 0.5 seconds seems a lot to ask, but he almost carried it off.

IMO there's a lot of 2nd guessing on a play with enough movement to make a Swiss watchmaker Celtic-green with envy.
 

chilidawg

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Lost in all the discussion about the last play is what a great game Lowry had. He was aggressive all night attacking the C's off the pick and roll, made shots from the perimeter, pushed on the break and created for teammates. Slowing down KL and figuring out how to attack the zone are the C's homework for today.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It Tatum follows OG, then FVV, the Raps best shooter, and who was probably option #1, is free to continue to the near-corner for the pass and an open-3, but Tatum held the zone, and FVV broke off his route to the corner.
Even that result is arguably better, as you're talking about a right-handed shooter taking a pass from a tight angle on the move from his non-shooting side having to get up an accurate shot in half a second.

They allowed an open look to literally the only area of the court where a shooter could be set and get the ball right in the pocket with no excess motion or awkwardness. Obviously you don't have time to think about all these things in the moment but clearly they were underprepared for that possibility and probably over-prepared to defend lower quality looks simply because it might have made for an easier pass.
 

PedroKsBambino

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One interesting thing is it is not clear why clock stopped at .5. No Raptor was calling for a TO when it stopped. Possible Nurse was, but a pretty good case on replay clock should have expired given they can’t call the TO until ball is through cylinder
 

bankshot1

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One interesting thing is it is not clear why clock stopped at .5. No Raptor was calling for a TO when it stopped. Possible Nurse was, but a pretty good case on replay clock should have expired given they can’t call the TO until ball is through cylinder
I think the clock stops when the ball exits the net, and no TO is needed.
 

bankshot1

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Even that result is arguably better, as you're talking about a right-handed shooter taking a pass from a tight angle on the move from his non-shooting side having to get up an accurate shot in half a second.

They allowed an open look to literally the only area of the court where a shooter could be set and get the ball right in the pocket with no excess motion or awkwardness. Obviously you don't have time to think about all these things in the moment but clearly they were underprepared for that possibility and probably over-prepared to defend lower quality looks simply because it might have made for an easier pass.
I watched that play one more time (I'm a masochist) and it looks like the play was drawn up for FVV for a corner-3, as Lowry first looks and seems ready to pass the ball there, but stops as he sees that option is closed by Tatum staying home and then he goes to OG with the cross-court pass.

I can't get too bent out of shape with that loss because of that play.
 

NomarsFool

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The absence of Hayward was felt last night. Way too many minutes for Brad Wannawalk and while he did some good things, not a great night for GWilliams, either. Replace those guys with Hayward and the C's win.

On the plus side, I've enjoyed watching JB completely shut down Siakam 1 vs. 1. I'm not sure why the C's went away from that and put GWilliams on him.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Away from the heat of the game:

I know there was back and forth last night, after Anunoby hit the game winner, about "why did the Celtics employ a zone?" with 0.5 seconds left. I'll admit I'm not a hardcore X's and O's guy, but I don't buy the logic of the zone there. The point was made that you can run lots of plays against a man to man to shake someone free. True. But it seems you can run lots of plays against a zone to free someone too (e.g., what if I stack five players at the foul line, disperse them, then restack maybe three on one side of the court?)

It seems last night, with half a second left, you should mostly fear two things: (1) A play leading to an easy tip in (2) Someone getting the ball, wide open from behind the three-point line, in a comfortable position (i.e., with his feet set).

With a man to man, it seems more likely a player would get the ball either in motion or having just ducked behind a screen (so coming off motion), and would probably have a hand in his face. But last night Anunoby was just standing there, unguarded. He was so incredibly wide open that Lowry could throw an overhead rainbow pass -- not a direct slingshot -- and a streaking Jaylen Brown (who is far from slow) could be so far away that he didn't even graze the shot when he leaped forward.

I know hindsight is always 20-20. But is it really acknowledged among strategists of the game that a zone is the best way to go with less than one second remaining? A zone just seems vulnerable to overloading and also to giving players too much space to comfortably catch the ball. Curious what others think.
Here's an article on why to play zone against the baseline OOB play: https://functionalbasketballcoaching.com/use-zone-defence-baseline-bounds/.

Most of the same principles carry over to the sideline OOB play.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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OG's shot gets sent 5 rows deep, Hakeem Warrick style, if JB plays the zone correctly
I'm not blaming anyone but I don't think JB is at fault. BTW, kudos once again to KL for the absolutely perfect pass. Not only was it precisely on line in terms of left and right, he also put into that 3 foot area between the 3 point line and the OOB line. A little less on it, it's a 2P shot. A little more, and it's out of bounds. Hat tip TOR.

At any rate, here is a still shot of 1:58. FVV is moving to the corner. Theis has him guarded. Siakam is coming ostensibly to set a pick for Gasol. JB has to guard Siakam and he has to be aware of Gasol. The problem is that the play is well constructed: the threat of FVV to the corner occupies JT and Theis so that JB is responsible for two - and perhaps three - players. Note that the next time Nurse runs this, when JB goes out to guard OG, he's going to have Siakam pivot quickly to the basket for an open layup.

33957

Here is 1:59. The biggest problem is all of the open space behind JT and Theis. Note that if JB was three feet closer to OG, Gasol has an easy layup. Frankly, the other option that JB has to be aware of is that OG doesn't completely go out to the 3P line - at some point, OG is going to go out halfway and then come back for an alley-oop for an easy dunk to tie the game.

33958

And just for fun, here's 2:00. Theis is backpedeling but he's not there in time. Gasol gets his hands on JB, which delays JB for the necessary portion of a second to allow OG to get the shot off. The rest, as they say, is history.

33959
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm not blaming anyone but I don't think JB is at fault. BTW, kudos once again to KL for the absolutely perfect pass. Not only was it precisely on line in terms of left and right, he also put into that 3 foot area between the 3 point line and the OOB line. A little less on it, it's a 2P shot. A little more, and it's out of bounds. Hat tip TOR.

At any rate, here is a still shot of 1:58. FVV is moving to the corner. Theis has him guarded. Siakam is coming ostensibly to set a pick for Gasol. JB has to guard Siakam and he has to be aware of Gasol. The problem is that the play is well constructed: the threat of FVV to the corner occupies JT and Theis so that JB is responsible for two - and perhaps three - players. Note that the next time Nurse runs this, when JB goes out to guard OG, he's going to have Siakam pivot quickly to the basket for an open layup.

View attachment 33957

Here is 1:59. The biggest problem is all of the open space behind JT and Theis. Note that if JB was three feet closer to OG, Gasol has an easy layup. Frankly, the other option that JB has to be aware of is that OG doesn't completely go out to the 3P line - at some point, OG is going to go out halfway and then come back for an alley-oop for an easy dunk to tie the game.

View attachment 33958

And just for fun, here's 2:00. Theis is backpedeling but he's not there in time. Gasol gets his hands on JB, which delays JB for the necessary portion of a second to allow OG to get the shot off. The rest, as they say, is history.

View attachment 33959
Yeah I screenshotted 2 of these photos last night to try to explain that Theis was further over than he should have been. It forced JB to guard the entire left side of the floor by himself. Damned if you do and damned if you don't here.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah I screenshotted 2 of these photos last night to try to explain that Theis was further over than he should have been. It forced JB to guard the entire left side of the floor by himself. Damned if you do and damned if you don't here.
Remember seeing your posts and I totally agree with you but given all of the subsequent posts about JB making a mistake, I thought I should re-post the screen shots with an explanation.

The 1:59 post is the worst of the bunch - look at how close JT and Theis are to each other.
 

DJnVa

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Raptors are clearly back in the series, but a lot of the "They done fucked up now" things I saw from their locker room seem way over the top. They're still a team with matchup issues in this series. They're still down 2-1, and a whisker from being down 3-0. Calm yourselves.

That said, you cannot let them off the mat. I have a feeling JB will be an animal next game.
 

RedOctober3829

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Raptors are clearly back in the series, but a lot of the "They done fucked up now" things I saw from their locker room seem way over the top. They're still a team with matchup issues in this series. They're still down 2-1, and a whisker from being down 3-0. Calm yourselves.

That said, you cannot let them off the mat. I have a feeling JB will be an animal next game.
I'm also expecting Tatum to come out and have a monster game. He was off last night and lately has not put 2 bad games in a row together.
 

DJnVa

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I'm also expecting Tatum to come out and have a monster game. He was off last night and lately has not put 2 bad games in a row together.
And if this Celtics team is a true contender, it's better to have this gut punch game come now--up 2-0 in conference semis, than in a potential ECF or Finals.
 

NomarsFool

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It's a little hard to understand what Tatum is doing. He seems to be guarding no one for many of the screen shots.
 

InstaFace

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IMO there's a lot of 2nd guessing on a play with enough movement to make a Swiss watchmaker Celtic-green with envy.
Yup. They could run this same scenario another 20 times and very easily not hit another game winner. If you can't tip your hat at a great play by the other team, you're always going to be MikeFord-style angry at your own team (disgraceful!), and that's just not a recipe to enjoy sports.

Part of me is annoyed that we'll have to get another game's worth of wear on the Kemba tires (etc), but the outcome of G3 is not something that has made me re-evaluate the series. If Toronto comes out in G4 and makes adjustments that stymie our defensive strategy and then they end up winning by 10, I'll have way more pause.
 

Captaincoop

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Remember seeing your posts and I totally agree with you but given all of the subsequent posts about JB making a mistake, I thought I should re-post the screen shots with an explanation.

The 1:59 post is the worst of the bunch - look at how close JT and Theis are to each other.
Theis was back in time to defend Gasol if the ball went his way. It is entirely Brown that screws the zone up. It is clear watching it even at full speed.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, Brown took himself out of position to defend his zone, that's on him. I said this in the Jay v Jay debate during Tatum's rookie season, but Tatum's just the more natural player. These errors are getting less common, but they're going to happen with Brown.
 

Captaincoop

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He actually made two bad judgments there - 1) that Theis couldn't get back to defend Gasol (he could), and 2) that left with a perceived choice of giving Gasol a jumper to tie or OG a jumper to win, he should defend Gasol (wrong again)
 

Auger34

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Honestly, I think it’s a play where you just have to tip your cap to the Raptors and it’s amazing they pulled it off.

In the future though, I think it’s extremely pointless to have anyone guarding the inbounder if he has no chance of getting the ball back. As Kirk Goldsberry pointed out in a tweet today, the player guarding the inbounder can’t be as close to the sideline as he was before which makes it tougher to effect the pass
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Theis was back in time to defend Gasol if the ball went his way. It is entirely Brown that screws the zone up. It is clear watching it even at full speed.
i honestly have no idea how you can say that. At 1:59, Theis is on the NBA playoff logo and Gasol is at the FT line while he is moving towards the basket. Theis is easily 3 ft away from Gasol. If JB isn't at the FT line with Gasol, it's an easy dunk.

I'm honestly befuddled as to what you are seeing.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I posted this Westerholm write-up in the gamethread but you should read it before determining who deserves blame for that last sequence.

Hint: It starts with Theis incorrectly thinking he needs to pick up VanVleet. Why that happens is unclear.
 
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benhogan

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Question:
1. is it easier to defend Gasol from 3ft away? or
2. OG from 25ft?

BUT that doesn't even matter since JB should not have fronted Gasol in the middle of the lane. It's a very basic zone principle.

Red/Wade, have you looked at Smart yelling at JB and pointing to OG?
or asked why JB blamed himself postgame?

it was a half-second error by JB, nice screen by Gasol and great pass/shot by Toronto.
 

benhogan

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i honestly have no idea how you can say that. At 1:59, Theis is on the NBA playoff logo and Gasol is at the FT line while he is moving towards the basket. Theis is easily 3 ft away from Gasol. If JB isn't at the FT line with Gasol, it's an easy dunk.

I'm honestly befuddled as to what you are seeing.
he's saying if Lowry lobbed a pass into Gasol either Theis or Brown from behind could cover that distance to stop/disrupt a Gasol catch and dunk
 

DJnVa

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he's saying if Lowry lobbed a pass into Gasol either Theis or Brown from behind could cover that distance to stop/disrupt a Gasol catch and dunk
And, you know, a dunk just ties the game.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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I'm actually sold more for Tacko (or some other big guy) defending the inbound there the more I look at the play. Finding OG in the opposite corner was literally the ONLY pass that could have been thrown without a deflection or interference. Tacko could have stuck his arm out sideways to deflect something to the near corner, and any pass shorter such as top of key or even thrown towards Gasol or Siakam near the basket would have far too much air to get over Tacko for them to get a clean shot off. A "topspin" pass far away like that was the only play, but the problem is the other 4 Celtics are playing it like no one is guarding the inbounder. This seems like more of a disconnect than anything.
 

TripleOT

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Since the player throwing in the ball isn’t and offensive threat, I wouldn’t guard him. I like man to man, with a free safety (Smart) halfway up the lane.

Any shot that beats you is going to probably be an off balance prayer. The free man can take away the pass at the rim, and help with any long lob pass
 

SteveF

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I'm convinced with so little time you don't guard the inbound and switch everything. The inbounder can't get the ball back for a shot. You can plant a guy in the lane to prevent any rim runs. And if you have a guy anywhere near the shot taker, a block is much easier since there's no chance of an upfake. You can't even really take a normal shot. You have to short arm it, usually resulting in a lower release point. You could even top lock everything because catching the ball on the move and shooting in .5 seconds is insanely difficult.

Plus, Nurse knows you're going to your zone. Going man with a free safety there plays against type.

But they lost that game on shot quality. They were slow on offense, both getting into sets and getting up the floor, and didn't get back fast enough on defense. They gave up too many shots at the rim and too much easy transition off their own misses.

Edit: What TripleOT said.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Question:
1. is it easier to defend Gasol from 3ft away? or
2. OG from 25ft?

BUT that doesn't even matter since JB should not have fronted Gasol in the middle of the lane. It's a very basic zone principle.

Red/Wade, have you looked at Smart yelling at JB and pointing to OG?
or asked why JB blamed himself postgame?

it was a half-second error by JB, nice screen by Gasol and great pass/shot by Toronto.
he's saying if Lowry lobbed a pass into Gasol either Theis or Brown from behind could cover that distance to stop/disrupt a Gasol catch and dunk
Maybe I should just stop because we obviously have a difference of opinion but just want to point out one factual thing.

JB was NOT fronting Gasol. Look at 1:59. JB is between Gasol and the basket. To stop Gasol from getting an easy dunk at the basket, that's really where he needs to be. So I'm not sure why you are saying JB was fronting Gasol because he wasn't.

And while not factual, I hugely disagree with the assertion that Theis was in any position to stop Gasol. If JB wasn't there, there's a super-easy lob to the basket; Gasol just has to catch it and dunk it and tie the game.

First rule of BBall in that situation - stop anything at the rim because that's always the first look for the offense.

Finally, yes I see Marcus pointing out OG. But if JB had flared to take OG, everyone would have been pointing at Gasol.

Give the play some credit. Again, this is factual. At 1:59, Theis is on the NBA Playoff Logo. Tatum is even closer to the sideline. Tacko is harassing the inbounder, and Smart has one foot outside the 3 point line. JB is guarding virtually the rest of the court. I'm not good at math, but if I had to guess, I'd say that 4 defenders were guarding about 1/3rd of the floor and 1 defender was guarding the other 2/3rds. Maybe someone can get an exact figure.

And finally, s I don't think JB blamed himself. I think he was saying it was a disgrace, included himself because he's not Kyrie and didn't want to throw anyone under the bus, but was pissed at the breakdown. And if he is pissed at himself, I hope he looks at film because he's in an impossible situation - which is exactly what the play is supposed to do.

Sorry if I am beating a dead horse.
 

benhogan

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No worries, reasonable people can disagree, that's what makes markets.

This is the classic multiple people at the scene of an accident seeing two different things.

I'll leave it at great play by Toronto.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I'm convinced with so little time you don't guard the inbound and switch everything. The inbounder can't get the ball back for a shot. You can plant a guy in the lane to prevent any rim runs. And if you have a guy anywhere near the shot taker, a block is much easier since there's no chance of an upfake. You can't even really take a normal shot. You have to short arm it, usually resulting in a lower release point. You could even top lock everything because catching the ball on the move and shooting in .5 seconds is insanely difficult.

Plus, Nurse knows you're going to your zone. Going man with a free safety there plays against type.

But they lost that game on shot quality. They were slow on offense, both getting into sets and getting up the floor, and didn't get back fast enough on defense. They gave up too many shots at the rim and too much easy transition off their own misses.

Edit: What TripleOT said.
I think you both make a lot of sense in terms of how you might defend that play. Having watched Stevens this long, its safe to assume that he will change things up.

It doesn't matter where you come down on the defense or where Brown was, that outcome was preventable. Even if the defense is simply better prepared for switch assignments, the Celtics likely win that game but again, I think Brad might defend that differently going forward.
 

lovegtm

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I think you both make a lot of sense in terms of how you might defend that play. Having watched Stevens this long, its safe to assume that he will change things up.

It doesn't matter where you come down on the defense or where Brown was, that outcome was preventable. Even if the defense is simply better prepared for switch assignments, the Celtics likely win that game but again, I think Brad might defend that differently going forward.
Hell, plant Tacko at the basket and switch everything
 

lovegtm

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All this said, the Celtics need to be realistic about who they are. They’re an underdog title contender who need to be completely on point and high-intensity to have a shot.

If taking one bad beat throws you out of that, you were screwed to being with. Conversely, if you can come back, forget about it, and execute at even higher intensity, that setback can take you to the level you need to hit to have a chance against Miami/LAC.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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All this said, the Celtics need to be realistic about who they are. They’re an underdog title contender who need to be completely on point and high-intensity to have a shot.

If taking one bad beat throws you out of that, you were screwed to being with. Conversely, if you can come back, forget about it, and execute at even higher intensity, that setback can take you to the level you need to hit to have a chance against Miami/LAC.
Couldn't agree with this more. These games can be tight and crazy things can happen, as evidenced by the end of a few games this week. The teams that make it through are able to remain mentally tough and I suspect that this year may be the truest test of how competitive players really are. While losing a round in the bubble sucks, its not unreasonable to wonder if its a form of relief for some people. I know families are allowed but the restrictive nature of their day to day is crazy.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
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Couldn't agree with this more. These games can be tight and crazy things can happen, as evidenced by the end of a few games this week. The teams that make it through are able to remain mentally tough and I suspect that this year may be the truest test of how competitive players really are. While losing a round in the bubble sucks, its not unreasonable to wonder if its a form of relief for some people. I know families are allowed but the restrictive nature of their day to day is crazy.
I'm honestly impressed with how mentally tough the players on the remaining teams are. Even Philly fought like hell after they got down 2-0.

This is one thing that makes me want to fade the Lakers somewhat, in addition to the basketball issues. I get the vibe that LeBron already has championships, and doesn't love being stuck in Orlando prison endlessly.
 

Captaincoop

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Jul 16, 2005
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In a few hours the Celtics will either be up 3-1, or tied 2-2 48 hours after they were a half second from having a 3-0 lead.

Pretty important feel to this one.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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In a few hours the Celtics will either be up 3-1, or tied 2-2 48 hours after they were a half second from having a 3-0 lead.

Pretty important feel to this one.
Huge game. Lose this, especially if in convincing fashion, and I start letting the dark thoughts creep in. At a minimum, you’re probably looking at a butt clenching Game 7.

Win it and all becomes right with the universe and this series could be over on Labor Day.

Huge test for these guys.
 

Imbricus

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Jan 26, 2017
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Agree. Toronto either gets to hit reset on the series, and turn it into a best of three, or the Celtics push them to the brink. If it's the former, then the end of game three will loom especially large.