'Member when some people were worried about Miami having a worse record than Brooklyn this season?Miami is pretty clearly the first round matchup that would be nice to avoid (and per 538 the one we most likely will face)
538 has the Hawks and Pacers finishing at 42 wins, Bucks and Heat at 41. Pistons and Bulls are fading, projected at 39 wins, but still with a 27% and 38% chance of making the playoffs, respectively. In other words, the bottom 4 seeds are still a complete crapshoot. Just get the #1 seed and take your chances.Miami is pretty clearly the first round matchup that would be nice to avoid (and per 538 the one we most likely will face)
Not only that, all four teams that have better records than the Celtics have recently shown signs of weakness in one way or another. The Celtics are clearly still in the second tier IMO but the separation between the tiers seems a bit smaller than it did at the beginning of the year.I can't wrap my head around the fact that the Celtics could be the 1 seed. Crazy, crazy year.
At what point do we change our thinking on Cleveland if they can't close out the #1 seed? They aren't losing because they are resting starters, they are just getting beat.I can't wrap my head around the fact that the Celtics could be the 1 seed. Crazy, crazy year.
Cleveland was -30 with Lebron on the floor last night.At what point do we change our thinking on Cleveland if they can't close out the #1 seed? They aren't losing because they are resting starters, they are just getting beat.
I don't feel they really care a whole lot about the 1-seed as that only comes into play if Boston makes the ECF against them. They need to focus on health, balancing rest with conditioning, and integrating Love, Smith, Korver, and Deron into their rotation while seeing if they can get anything out of Sanders......it's essentially their pre-season and that is how they have been approaching it. Their defense has been non-existent over the past several weeks. Some has to do with their second unit being a clusterfvck as they integrate an entirely new unit and some has to do with the starters approaching these games like the pre-season if they are even playing at all.At what point do we change our thinking on Cleveland if they can't close out the #1 seed? They aren't losing because they are resting starters, they are just getting beat.
And some has to do with the fact they their core is fairly mediocre defensively to begin with (#10 ranked last season, #20 the season before), and that their three most noteworthy recent additions to the rotation — 34 y.o. Frye, 36 y.o. Korver, 33 y.o. tubby Deron — are all horrific defenders. Derrick Williams and the Larry Sanders Show add some D in theory, but only in theory, since they're both unlikely to get meaningful minutes in the playoffs.ITheir defense has been non-existent over the past several weeks. Some has to do with their second unit being a clusterfvck as they integrate an entirely new unit and some has to do with the starters approaching these games like the pre-season if they are even playing at all.
Pre-season for everyone but Lebron? He needs to maintain his minutes so his season/career numbers don't slip. I'm not being sarcastic. I honestly believe that is why he is playing so many minutes. If he is going to actually play any of a game he needs enough run in the game to not let his numbers slip - but he is self-aware enough to not just play hero ball and get his numbers then sit down. Or maybe I'm just a haterYou'd think if the Cavs wanted to treat this as preseason, then James would get more rest. He played more minutes than any starter last night--that's not a preseason rotation.
LeBron doesn't exert a ton of energy in these regular season games compared to what he does in the playoffs and is fully healthy and fresh. He has also sat out 10% of his teams games this year to manage the back to backs. Lesser players exert much more energy in the same amount of minutes......LeBron could probably play even more without showing any effects from it.You'd think if the Cavs wanted to treat this as preseason, then James would get more rest. He played more minutes than any starter last night--that's not a preseason rotation.
I just saw the 4th quarter, but I thought they were playing decently, but couldn't hit open 3's or free throws. They're not a team that can shoot poorly and win.What's going on here? Is the lack of effort lately just the long season taking a toll on the energy? Are they just out of gas? Bored? Just missing open shots? I'm having a hard time telling which it is. Maybe a combo. The whole team looks to have tired legs.
I know I'm repeating myself over the year(s) by stating this but I've still seen no evidence that Ainge will be influenced at all by playoff success or failure. I'm more confident than ever that he views this as a rebuilding situation with the goal of long term Patriot-like dominance. To do this he's sacrificing any short term improvements....(and here's the key part)....that negatively affect his long term plan. I specifically phrase this as Horford didn't cost any assets or affect us extending the core of our team in 2020 and beyond. Competing in the playoffs is great but Ainge isn't ready to "play a hand" unless that hand is a home run long term gain.Lots of similar comments in other threads, but seems like the best place to put this...
Winding down the regular season with back to back losses against potential playoff opponents obviously sucks. However, its how they lost that is so galling. From jump they looked outclassed and were never really in those games. Without the jumpers falling this team isn't just limited, its neutered. At one point Brad was grasping for straws and ran a lineup shorter than the Bruins: it was predictably a disaster.
Sure, the season is a roller coaster and I'm likely over reacting but I really had an internal dialog (expressed by other posters as well) about Brad perhaps experimenting with lineups and making the W of secondary importance. And this with homecourt advantage at stake.
I get the context of each individual decision, but I wanted Noel or PJ Tucker or Nurkic or something/anything. Maybe Ainge was right and this season's team just isn't worth investing in. I enjoy watching these C's but hope the standings finish the way they are today as the Bulls are the only team I see as better than a coin flip.
What if these results were the true expectations of the two games? Losing convincingly to a far superior team, with LeBron, that was motivated not to lose two consecutive games to us......and losing on the second night of a b2b to a playoff team on the road who just got their best player back.Good news is, we will all get to see whether these last two games were just a blip or a harbinger of things to come.
I think this is the bottom line as well. Perhaps if an opportunity to obtain an asset that had longer term value presented, he would have moved, but its pretty clear he treated anything they achieve this year as a pleasant bonus.Competing in the playoffs is great but Ainge isn't ready to "play a hand" unless that hand is a home run long term gain.
Its definitely a matchup game but I can't think of any team we might face in the playoffs (maybe the Bulls?) where those three aren't at a huge disadvantage. IT4, AB and Smart all play with astonishing heart, which I admire greatly, but they get exploited defensively and only IT has a reliable offensive game beyond hoping the 3s fall.Speaking of matchups though, it seems to me that the Cs were doing better when Brad went away (and then was forced to go away) from the IT4, AB, Smart lineups. Just checked NBA.com, and unless I ran the filters wrong (always a possibility), those three were -32.5 in 23 minutes against CLE and ATL.
I don't know how Brad is going to thread the needle with those three but my eyes tell me that it's too easy for opposing teams to get mismatches when those three are on the floor together except for against certain specific teams.
It's a real problem for this Celtics team. IT, AB and even Crowder are all undersized, and it's something people don't talk about enough. When this team isn't ballhawking, it's really hard for them to keep up defensively with teams with bigger shooting guards and close out effectively. It's why the Celtics have so much trouble with Toronto.Its definitely a matchup game but I can't think of any team we might face in the playoffs (maybe the Bulls?) where those three aren't at a huge disadvantage. IT4, AB and Smart all play with astonishing heart, which I admire greatly, but they get exploited defensively and only IT has a reliable offensive game beyond hoping the 3s fall.
Smart is improving as a distributor but is an epic bricklayer and attacks the rim like a rhino on roller skates. That said, I do still want him on the floor at the end of games along with IT. AB is the one I just can't figure out. He is clearly a great SG/PG defender and can make the outside shot, but the obvious plan teams have to just switch until they get the IT matchup they want often leaves him covering someone that can take advantage of his size too. The decrease in the projected salary cap will likely put even more pressure on Ainge to move him this offseason.
Finally, I think there is an added effect of having three players on the court smaller than most any competitive high school team. I think teams just lick their chops at always having the option to shoot over their defender and have a real additional advantage seeing the court.
Crowder's not undersized.It's a real problem for this Celtics team. IT, AB and even Crowder are all undersized, and it's something people don't talk about enough. When this team isn't ballhawking, it's really hard for them to keep up defensively with teams with bigger shooting guards and close out effectively. It's why the Celtics have so much trouble with Toronto.
He is tough and physical for sure, but at 6'6" 235 Crowder is always shorter and usually also smaller than the PFs he matches up against with IT4, AB, Smart on the court.Crowder's not undersized.
I know what you mean -- there are plenty of SFs at 6'6. But Crowder is also more groundbound than a lot of SFs, and nearly all of the best forwards in the NBA are bigger than Crowder. Besides Paul George, and Giannis (who are all exceptionally tall for SFs), Carroll, Butler, and Porter all have inches on Crowder. Crowder is an exceptional defender because he does all the right things and works really hard. In the end those things matter way more in contesting jumpers than how big you are -- but it doesn't hurt to be large, either, of course.Crowder's not undersized.
The problem with the Crowder/IT/AB/Smart lineup is not that Crowder is too short.He is tough and physical for sure, but at 6'6" 235 Crowder is always shorter and usually also smaller than the PFs he matches up against with IT4, AB, Smart on the court.
Didn't say it was, merely responding to an claim that he wasn't undersized, which he is against the average 3 and definitely against PFs.The problem with the Crowder/IT/AB/Smart lineup is not that Crowder is too short.
Crowder is tremendously undersized from both height and wingspan when he's going up against nearly all playoff 3's. This is one position that needs upgrading before we are serious contenders as we lose this matchup most every night against the good teams sometimes in a lopsided fashion. Crowder has measured 6-6 1/2 with a 6-9 wingspan compared to other playoff 3's you'll see where this is an issue which doesn't even account for the athletic advantages that most of them also possess over him.Crowder's not undersized.
I love a good wingspan post too so thanks for capturing that info in one place.Crowder is tremendously undersized from both height and wingspan when he's going up against nearly all playoff 3's. This is one position that needs upgrading before we are serious contenders as we lose this matchup most every night against the good teams sometimes in a lopsided fashion.
I think our size issues are worse at the 1 and 2 than they are with Crowder.HRB, you sure do love a good wingspan post
There is no doubt that Crowder is giving up height and length to most of these guys, but he is also able to out muscle most of these dudes with their skinny lomg ass arms
HRB is opening up a new hospitality suite at the Alligator Arms Hotel.HRB, you sure do love a good wingspan post
I will be naming Kelly Olynyk as my Front Desk Manager in the coming weeks.......and Miles Bridges as his assistant on draft night.HRB is opening up a new hospitality suite at the Alligator Arms Hotel.
I don't dislike Crowder at all I just prefer him in the role he had in Dallas scrapping on the second unit rather than facing disadvantages against half of his counterparts.I love a good wingspan post too so thanks for capturing that info in one place.
That said, I'm not sure I buy the bolded above. Clearly we would lose the matchup against Greek Freak, Durant, George, Lebron and Leonard but that is more a sign of who they are than who Crowder is. I'm not sure the other half of that list presents a matchup we lose most every night. I also think moops is right that the physical nature of his game more than compensates for giving up an inch or two.
Perhaps I have an irrational appreciation for his game, as I think he plays with contagious energy and is one of the few Celtics who can hold his own on both ends of the court. Bradley and Horford are the (only?) others.
Interesting mix of players there.Crowder is tremendously undersized from both height and wingspan when he's going up against nearly all playoff 3's. This is one position that needs upgrading before we are serious contenders as we lose this matchup most every night against the good teams sometimes in a lopsided fashion. Crowder has measured 6-6 1/2 with a 6-9 wingspan compared to other playoff 3's you'll see where this is an issue which doesn't even account for the athletic advantages that most of them also possess over him.
LeBron 6-8 and 7-0
Durant 6-9 and 7-5
George 6-8 1/2 and 6-11
Porter 6-8 and 7-1
Carroll 6-9 and 6-10
Antetokounmpo 6-11 and 7-3
Leonard 6-8 and 7-3
Ariza 6-8 and 7-2
Mbah A Moute 6-8 and 7-2
Roberson 6-7 and 6-11
Even most all of the lottery teams have a height/wingspan advantage at the 3.