Celtics Trade Timelord, Brogdon, and picks for Jrue Holiday
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
Guess we're going to find out soon whether Wyc really meant it when he said he didn't care how much he had to spend, as long as it resulted in a title.
What we really need is Porzingis to have a fully healthy season, or at least like a 2/3s healthy season that includes the full playoffs. Assuming he performs well in the playoffs and looks like the vintage version of himself, he will be tradeable for a while (even if future years are nowhere close), with some team willing to buy at 60c on the dollar for the chance that he's healthy enough again. That's our potential value play in a year or two with this roster. Jrue will age like defense-first guards do, which is to say, when a decline happens it will be gradual and Tony Allen-like and not a collapse like "big men who lose their knees" see. His contract won't be much of a positive-value asset soon. $36.9 this year, $39.4 player option next year. Nobody will be trading today's package for him in two years.
Grant Williams trade exception and a pick could potentially get them something decent
White
Holiday
Brown
Tatum
Porzingis
G: Pritchard, JD Davison
F: Hauser, Brissett, Stevens, Banton, (Scrubb)
C: Horford, Kornet, (Queta)
It is one big, dubious bet on health... but if it pays off we'll have the best 7-man playoff rotation in the league.
Also, this means Pritchard is getting his wish for more minutes granted.
Holiday
Brown
Tatum
Porzingis
G: Pritchard, JD Davison
F: Hauser, Brissett, Stevens, Banton, (Scrubb)
C: Horford, Kornet, (Queta)
It is one big, dubious bet on health... but if it pays off we'll have the best 7-man playoff rotation in the league.
Also, this means Pritchard is getting his wish for more minutes granted.
Brad too as they both should and I’ve been really impressed with his ability to make bold moves to improve the team. He is fearless.
The window to win it all is going to close at some point. Tatum is no longer 19. They’ve had a couple of bites at the apple but not quite enough to get over the hump. Their starting 5 is significantly improved. Winning a championship is really hard. From my view the Celtics have meaningfully improved their probability of doing so. Fingers crossed that they stay healthy because their depth has taken a hit but it will be fun to see the bench guys like Hauser, Pritchard, Walsh and Kornet try to make the most of their opportunities to step up.
Separately there is no other professional league that has as compelling off season dynamics as the NBA. It truly is FANtastic.
Yeah, I'm not a big counting stats guy, just thought it'd be illustrative. Helps to keep in mind Holiday is also far more efficient on way higher usage.
I guess I would do this deal but I'm not sure this is a slam dunk. Jrue is old and there is downside with his age. TL has the obvious health questions but is game-changing in his own right, if he's healthy for the playoffs you're in great shape. I really disagree that they sold high on Brogdon; they don't have the luxury of rehabilitating his reputation at this point but I think they're selling low there.
Throw in the contract situation, even if Jrue re-signs you lose a lot of team flexibility, and I don't know if they get better here over the next three years. Maybe all they care about is this year so OK, they're better, but I would have rather kept the flexibility.
Hopefully the roster clicks and this makes everyone better, I just feel like they could get that better "fit" with a different PG who was younger and not as expensive. They'd better win I guess!
Throw in the contract situation, even if Jrue re-signs you lose a lot of team flexibility, and I don't know if they get better here over the next three years. Maybe all they care about is this year so OK, they're better, but I would have rather kept the flexibility.
Hopefully the roster clicks and this makes everyone better, I just feel like they could get that better "fit" with a different PG who was younger and not as expensive. They'd better win I guess!
I think that Kornet is a decent NBA center who is better than a lot of guys who play 2nd-string center on playoff teams...
...with the huge caveat that the rest of the lineup from 1-4 needs to be really good, but I think the Cs will have that.
I agree. If the plan is largely to play with one big and one small on the floor, I’m far more concerned about the lack of wing depth.
yeah, to the extent there's a roster strategy, it changes the minute the player market changes, which means it's not a strategy.
I've been a big Kornet guy for a while, so you can count me in on thinking he'll do just fine playing 10-15 minutes or 15-20. He doesn't need to do anything on offense except pick and and roll. On defense, just keep giving us 2 blocks a game and effective rim deterrence and things will be fine.
I love ET, one of the funniest dudes ever in the league.
View: https://twitter.com/thekidet/status/1708523174780862842
View: https://twitter.com/thekidet/status/1708523174780862842
its reminiscent of political scientists trying to infer trends from presidential elections
What are the significant health issues with Holiday? And yes Porzingis has health issues but we just jettisoned the biggest health issue guy in TL
Just that he misses a lot of games. Over the past 5 years he hasn't played more than 67 in a season.
That isn’t a good way to look at it though. Two of those years were only 72 game seasons.
It's why Bill Belichick is the most honest and candid of GMs.
"I did what I thought was in the best interests of the team."
...and every situation that presents itself has to be subject to weighing a bunch of factors, some of them unquantifiable and even intangible. So rather than have someone feed you a bunch of bull about what you were looking to do and how it's all part of some big plan that is in your power to execute, an honest sports executive will admit that it's all opportunistic, and roster-composition judgment (and coachability, and value-for-money, and so on) are subjective instincts honed over decades and can't be fully explained, nor their decisions predicted. Life is hard, wear a helmet.
Even if you credit him an additional 20 games played, his average is 68 over 5 years.
The pretty substantial risk is that this isn't selling low on Brogdon if he got hurt again or pouted post trade offer.
What is TL over that span? I love the guy, but eyeballing bref, it seems like he's at ~40-45 games per season for his career.
Fair point - if you gave me 68, I'd guess Tatum and DW are the only starters to average more than that recently?
So.....completely normal for the modern NBA?
Has he been hurt in any recent playoff runs? I can't recall any. Maybe back in NO?
After reading Insta Face's, Eddie Jurak's, Toe NAsh's, and Bankshot's posts, I hate this deal even more.
Didn't realize that Jrue is already 33 and POBOS seems to want to sign him long term (depends what long-term means I guess)
Oh and F the CLippers!
(If it hasn;t been obvious, much of the hate is for emotional, entertainment value from watching TL and MS play)
And I do looooove Jrue as person, he's definitely much much higher on the "invite to dinner quotient" than Brogdon lol
Didn't realize that Jrue is already 33 and POBOS seems to want to sign him long term (depends what long-term means I guess)
Oh and F the CLippers!
(If it hasn;t been obvious, much of the hate is for emotional, entertainment value from watching TL and MS play)
And I do looooove Jrue as person, he's definitely much much higher on the "invite to dinner quotient" than Brogdon lol
One or two more veterans for the bench by midseason would be good to see. Otherwise nothing not to like about this team going forward. What a day!
this is a surprisingly VERY VALID point.
But I've been scared of a so called luck catching up, And this team becomes very unwatchable if Tatum gets injured, with all apologies to Jrue
I think you can reasonably conclude two things from this deal:
1. As others have indicated, the Celtics must not have much confidence in the long-term health of Rob Williams
2. They must also have a reasonably high degree of confidence in the health of Porzingis
Everything is a gamble, and I'm glad they are showing the courage of their convictions, but I also am going to hate it if it goes wrong. Time Lord was far and away my favorite Celtic.
1. As others have indicated, the Celtics must not have much confidence in the long-term health of Rob Williams
2. They must also have a reasonably high degree of confidence in the health of Porzingis
Everything is a gamble, and I'm glad they are showing the courage of their convictions, but I also am going to hate it if it goes wrong. Time Lord was far and away my favorite Celtic.
Re: the trade, fully love it. If healthy, and I expect that to be the goal of the coaching staff during the regular season, this team is going to be a beast in the playoffs. On both sides of the ball!!!
Yes, but every team in the NBA is screwed if its star isn't available for the playoffs.
Every single one.
The Celtics are unique in that they might be good enough to survive a 1st round type matchup without Tatum, but at the end of the day, you need your top dog to be healthy.
I’ll miss TL’s otherworldly play when he was healthy, but being able to add a 21st century Dennis Johnson to this core for an oft injured, easily offended Brogdon, a fragile Rob Williams, and a couple of draft picks is a no brained.
No team can boast the ability at both ends of the floor of the two guards, White and Jrue, the two superstat wings, Tatum and JB, and the two bigs, AL and KP. There will be ring chasing vets available to fill out the playoff roster after the trade deadline, if needed, although I like the idea of Nerlins Noel as a bouncy rim runner/defender for the entire season. Seeing old friend Kelly Olynyk come back for a playoff run after Ainge releases him at the deadline would probably be better for the playoffs, especially if AL or KP are out.
Every one of the top six players are elite defenders. All six can shoot the three ball. All six can pass. All can be matchup problems. This is going to be a fun season. I won’t be surprised to see a bunch of long winning streaks.
No team can boast the ability at both ends of the floor of the two guards, White and Jrue, the two superstat wings, Tatum and JB, and the two bigs, AL and KP. There will be ring chasing vets available to fill out the playoff roster after the trade deadline, if needed, although I like the idea of Nerlins Noel as a bouncy rim runner/defender for the entire season. Seeing old friend Kelly Olynyk come back for a playoff run after Ainge releases him at the deadline would probably be better for the playoffs, especially if AL or KP are out.
Every one of the top six players are elite defenders. All six can shoot the three ball. All six can pass. All can be matchup problems. This is going to be a fun season. I won’t be surprised to see a bunch of long winning streaks.
Boston is a lot more desirable spot for Blake if he wants to both ring chase and get playing time.
Unlike game 7 of the eastern finals this year when they did great with an injured Tatum?
I absolutely love Timelord and the run a couple years ago was magic but I don’t see any way he could ever get back to that short of some medical miracle. And it’s really kind of an anchor building a roster around too many guys who you KNOW are going to be banged up at some point. And TL, way more than the average player, is one awkward play away from being completely ineffective. He was already wildly less mobile last season and nowhere near the guy that was terrorizing offenses guarding 1-5 all at the same time.
I think Brogdon got a bit of a bum rap playing through injury but before that he was so bad on D all season and it was his hot shooting that made it work.
POBOBS keeps putting his balls on the table and whenever you think maybe he’s run out of balls here is he is slapping them out on the table again.
At the end of the day, yeah we’ve lost some of “our guys” but it sure as shit wasn’t fun watching them choke a bunch of times across two seasons when it counted the most.
Edit: One last point—while depth is nice, it only goes so far when it really counts and having some roster spots that look flexible can help come buyout/trade season when agents are looking for good spots for their guys.
I think Brogdon got a bit of a bum rap playing through injury but before that he was so bad on D all season and it was his hot shooting that made it work.
POBOBS keeps putting his balls on the table and whenever you think maybe he’s run out of balls here is he is slapping them out on the table again.
At the end of the day, yeah we’ve lost some of “our guys” but it sure as shit wasn’t fun watching them choke a bunch of times across two seasons when it counted the most.
Edit: One last point—while depth is nice, it only goes so far when it really counts and having some roster spots that look flexible can help come buyout/trade season when agents are looking for good spots for their guys.
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Nothing but a gut feeling, but Blake might not have wanted to the cheerleader/locker room vet any more. Maybe actually getting to play a few minutes in important games is the deciding factor in him mounting up one more season.
If he wants less PT, coming back would be a bad idea.