His issue appears to be mechanical. He seems to be falling away/to the side on many of his three attempts this series. He needs to set square and shoot in rhythm.
Celtics vs 76ers, Round 2 Discussion
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
Agreed. He needs to take those shots. The key is: he needs to MAKE them. Not all of them, of course. But he needs to shoot like...40-45% on those.
Stuff like that can feel true, and actually be true, in a series that very easily could have been a celtics sweep.
Not surprising when you remember that the Celtics are a +29, despite being down 3 games to 2. If this continues the way it's going, it will be the most disappointing Celtics season in recent memory.
The stats overall aren’t going to back up Philly being better because the Celtics are plus 29 in the series. The difference is the Celtics have failed to close out 2 games when they had a chance.
Great post. NBA history is littered with teams that were very good, but not quite good enough to win a title. Sometimes it was because they had a generational team in their way, and sometimes it was because they were missing something (either on court, or off).
To me, the Cs have all of the on court pieces to win. No team is perfect, none are without flaws, but they appear to have more than enough compared to the rest of the league. Hopefully that comes alive in Game 6 and beyond.
Celtics' supporting cast:
Smart:
- Good: 15.4 points, 4.8 assists
- Bad: Just 33.3% from three, and his defense has not been good. (which is bad for a DPOY)
Horford:
- Good: Solid defense
- Bad: Three point shooting has been atrocious
Grant W:
- Good: ???
- Bad: Pretty much everything
White:
- Good: 10.2 points (?) not terrible but worse than his season average
- Bad: Poor defense, poor shooting
Brogdon:
- Good: 53.1% three point shooting, averaging 16.8 points a game
- Bad: Defense has been like a turnstile
Rob W:
- Good: Spurts of energy where he looks like an impact player
- Bad: Stretches where he looks like a 45 year old man out there, only scoring 4.0 points a game
Very disappointing overall from the supporting cast, I'd say.
Smart:
- Good: 15.4 points, 4.8 assists
- Bad: Just 33.3% from three, and his defense has not been good. (which is bad for a DPOY)
Horford:
- Good: Solid defense
- Bad: Three point shooting has been atrocious
Grant W:
- Good: ???
- Bad: Pretty much everything
White:
- Good: 10.2 points (?) not terrible but worse than his season average
- Bad: Poor defense, poor shooting
Brogdon:
- Good: 53.1% three point shooting, averaging 16.8 points a game
- Bad: Defense has been like a turnstile
Rob W:
- Good: Spurts of energy where he looks like an impact player
- Bad: Stretches where he looks like a 45 year old man out there, only scoring 4.0 points a game
Very disappointing overall from the supporting cast, I'd say.
First team that immediately popped into my head on that point was the 80s Bucks. They were fantastic for a long time, but they just couldn't get past Philly and Boston during those years. The Phoenix Suns from 88-89 to 94-95 were also awesome but only even got to the NBA Finals once. It's really frigging hard.
For sure. I'm definitely worried that this team is more 80s Bucks than 80s Pistons -- a team that takes a few years of lumps, but then breaks through and wins titles. The core is still young enough for us to hope that things click in the next season or two. It has for other teams in the past. But I'm getting anxious that isn't going to happen with this crew.
Trying a change of pace wouldn't kill them. Someone floated Muscala earlier. I'd be fine with Hauser too. The defense is already letting Harden within 5' of the basket without any resistance on P&R, completely different than Games 2 and 3.
Pritchard, on the other hand, would kill them. I don't think that he can stay in front of Maxey, and he definitely can't Harden.
Hauser seems like the obvious play. They can stick him in the corner on Tucker. He will inevitably be drawn into PnR actions and Harden will try to take him 1 on 1 but, as the Hawks and Trae proved, that can sometime get a team out of rhythm.
They could also try harder to get over picks and not allow that to happen…
True. But forcing those guys to chase a sharp-shooting jitterbug all over the place might wear them out.
When Detroit finally broke through (88-89), the core had been together for years, and here's the ages of the players:
Season age
- Thomas: 27
- Dumars: 25
- Laimbeer: 31
- Dantley: 33
- Aguirre: 29
- Rodman: 27
- Vinnie: 32
- Mahorn: 30
- Salley: 24
- Edwards: 33
AVG: 29.1
MEAN: 30.5
A real veteran team. The Celtics right now (season age):
- Tatum: 24
- Brown: 26
- Smart: 28
- Horford: 36
- White: 28
- Brogdon: 30
- Grant: 24
- RWill: 25
- Pritchard: 25
- Hauser: 25
AVG: 27.1
MEAN: 26.0
Significantly younger on the whole. I don't know...maybe this team just needs a LITTLE more seasoning? But I'm with you - they might be more like the 80s Bucks than the 80s Pistons. We'll see.
I like the thought on Hauser. Obviously Tucker isn't going to hurt him. The only negative would be in Hauser being stuck in P&R situations, but during the season, he's handled that fairly well I think. I mean...it can't be much worse than how they're doing it now, an Hauser would at least bring the possibility of quality shooting.
This is why you let Tucker draw his man into a PnR action. You just ignore Tucker as he rolls, and double the ball handler. Make Tucker beat you, and make Harden give it up.
Instead, we're putting Tatum on Tucker, so they don't use Tucker in the PnR, and voila, they end up with Al or TL or Brogdon trying to guard Maxey or Harden 30 feet from the hoop.
I'd consider putting Al or TL as the guy "covering" their corner shooter, and let Tatum start the possession covering Embiid down low. The second they try to pass into Embiid, you bring the guy covering Tucker in to double.
This is 4 on 5 defense, it shouldn't be so complicated, and shouldn't constantly result in Philly getting whatever matchup they want.
Because Hauser is from Wisconsin and a rookie (hat tip to Luke Kornet) defenses relentlessly hunt him and try to embarrass him one on one….and he holds up well for the most part.
Even if he doesn’t hold up well, it’s not like Brogdon is slowing Harden down at all so how much worse could it actually get?
Hauser did play in Game 1 (and the blowout), he was generally ineffective and missed his shots, got no rebounds.
Maybe they give him 3-4 minutes if everyone is shooting poorly again, but I don't think he solves any problems for this team.
Maybe they give him 3-4 minutes if everyone is shooting poorly again, but I don't think he solves any problems for this team.
I understand the age argument, but at the same time most NBA players simply start playing in the league earlier than they did years ago. Was it Thomas being 27 that fully "seasoned" him, or was it that he was in his 8th year in the league? I mean, Brown's in his 7th season, Smart in his 9th, Brogdon's 7th (and he's 30), White's 6th (and he's 28)...
Outside of Tatum I feel that point is falling a bit flat. But there's still time to turn this series around.
They could use a veteran ass kicker. Haslem would be perfect. Just someone with a ring/rings and some credibility to get into them when they need it.
Last year that person was Udoka. This year, I don’t think they have anyone
If you really believe that, then you should want to see Hauser get a long look in the next game. (I feel almost certain that he won't). That's a skill he has, but for all Mazulla's talk about needing to hit more threes, that's not a move he's been willing to make, and I doubt he's be more willing in an elimination game.
I think the laughably terrible defense the Celtics have played for more than half of this series is the real reason for their struggles, though. Points allowed by game-quarter:
1-1: 31
1-2: 32
1-3: 24
1-4: 32
2-1: 22
2-2: 27
2-3: 16
2-4: 22
3-1: 29
3-2: 22
3-3: 27
3-4: 25
4-1: 27
4-2: 32
4-3: 33
4-4: 15
4-OT: 9
5-1: 33
5-2: 25
5-3: 30
5-4: 27
Their median quarter has been 27 points. In their 2 wins, they allowed aove the median points in only 1 of 8 quarters (29 in Q1 game 3). In their 3 losses, they have only 3 quarters in which they allowed below their median: Game 1 Q3, 24; Game 4 Q4, 15 (best defensive quarter of series), Game 5 Q2, 25.
They have allowed 7 30-point quarters: zero in their two wins; at least 2 in every loss.
And this isn't just a question of what the stats say. The change in Boston's defensive intensity from game 1 (119 points allowed) to game 2 (87 ppoints allowed) was obvious from the jump. After Philly exploited Boston's switching defenses in game 1, the Celtics came out in game 2 and started fighting over picks to keep the matchups they wanted.
The same thing can be seen within game 4. After giving up 92 points in the first three quarters, the Celtics brught their defensive intensity to bear in Q4 and just shut Philly down for most of the quarter, holding them to 15.
And then game 5, and, instead of defensive intensity, they reverted to their indifferent defense from game 1 and most of game 4 .
Boston has to win with defense, and so far in this series they simply can't or won't do it consistently.
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It's interesting that the '08 team had a much older/more experienced bench than this team... PJ Brown, Sam Cassell, James Posey, Eddie House. I suspect some of that is because they were guys that the older Big 3 were familiar with and wanted to play with.
100% in agreement. They need to make the Sixers worst players beat them. If Tobias Harris/DeAnthony Melton/PJ Tucker come out and shoot the lights out, you tip your cap and move on….but, I am not letting Harden/Maxey/Embiid pick us apart and orchestrate the offense
He isn't really much of a jitterbug though. He's just short. You can give him two feet and still close on his shot. Any quickness advantage that he has over Hauser is mitigated by not having to stay glued to him.
If Mazzulla's thinking is that the Celtics need to take and hit threes to win, then he's got to give Hauser a look. It may not work, but status quo isn't goping to get it done either.
Well, PP’s tight handle allows him to get into some smaller spaces and forces the Sixers to guard him for longer periods of time. I think he needs a little bit of run as a change of pace.
Desperate times and all.
Fwiw, I'm not worried about Tucker. There are a couple of guys in this forum who could cover Tucker in that offense without Harden deciding to force the ball to him.
I'm worried that Harden is as good as anyone on earth at getting anyone's guy on a switch, and PP would be worse than a turnstile then. That's why I'd rather Hauser, who is much less of a weakness to exploit.
But what the fuck. I won't call Joe nuts for trying something. Sixers are true shooting the lights out and not turning the ball over. And while some folks will point out that Harden/Embiid are good at that shit, the Sixers team is scoring at will. Already. Not like Pritchard's gonna make it worse.
Why do we expect him to raise the floor? In an ideal world he'd be a lead Asst for a couple years prior to moving on to a head job. Instead, he's thrust into a lead role 2-3 years prior to being fully prepared, unable to build his own staff instead left with the old coaches hires while having his top Asst leave for a college job in mid season.
Everyone is blaming Joe when it was Ime who put us in this predicament.
I think you can absolutely blame Ime for the predicament Joe finds himself in. But, we also can't ignore Joe's failings when they happen either.
I mean, do we blame Tito for Bobby Valentine sucking? I know it's nowhere near the same analogy, but if we can't judge Joe based on his results, and just blame Ime, I'm not sure what else we can do, but wash our hands of it and move along. Doc Rivers is coaching circles around Joe right now, and I think it's fair to acknowledge it, while we also recognize that Joe shouldn't be in this situation at all.
And of course, this is the NBA. Joe Mazz is not coaching the C's without the players, and a few in particular, signing off on it.
The best that I've seen this core play over the last several years was late last season before his injury. His presence on D as a roaming shot blocker allowed for all the others to really play tight defense because they knew he had that security blanket. I suspect that's part of the reason why Smart doesn't look as good on defense this season. And, on offense, his mobility and athleticism allowed for multiple options to ballhandlers after high picks....drive to hoop, drive and kick for open jumpers, lob to Williams. And, as an extra kick, even if they passed to him, and he got fouled, he's a good FT shooter. IMO, that has been and is the missing piece for this team. The team faults that we've seen (TOs, lack of rebounding, bad defense), which I've accepted will always probably be there, get mitigated.
You’re completely right that this is on Ime. Joe was put into a very tough situation but as @Deathofthebambino said..he’s here and he does have some notable faults that need to be discussed
The Harden/Maxey success is consisent with the above, and it's interesting...I would have said coming into series backcourt D is a real strength. But it hasn't played out that way---Harden is too strong for Brogdon and White; Maxey too quick for Smart and Brogdon and it's really been an issue. You wouldn't think "non-big defense" is a Celtics gap, but this series it has been. This is where you need an adjustment or one/several of those guys to find another gear. And I have no idea if either can or will happen...
Yup. The biggest indictment of Joe as a coach is not timeouts or close-outs of games...it is that an elite defense has fallen into disarray with essentially the same players and limited other obvious explanations. Some combo of scheme and effort have greatly reduced their defensive effectiveness....and they are running out of time to fix it.
I'm not sure I totally get the Mazzulla criticism. The offense is creating open looks, the players just aren't hitting them (neither are they hitting free throws - the stars especially).
The sad fact is that the Sixers stars have simply showed up for one more game than Brown and Tatum. We all thought Harden was going to wither but he's been really, really good in their wins. Embiid was unstoppable last night. And both of those guys are nearly automatic from the line, which is backbreaking in comparison to Brown shrinking when he gets fouled in clutch situations (3/10 in the last two games...). I'm not sure how much Mazzulla can affect change there.
The sad fact is that the Sixers stars have simply showed up for one more game than Brown and Tatum. We all thought Harden was going to wither but he's been really, really good in their wins. Embiid was unstoppable last night. And both of those guys are nearly automatic from the line, which is backbreaking in comparison to Brown shrinking when he gets fouled in clutch situations (3/10 in the last two games...). I'm not sure how much Mazzulla can affect change there.
The impact of Harden's and Embiid's accuracy from the line can't be overstated. Against the Bucks, there was always the chance Giannis would go 8 for 16 from the line. That ain't happening with the Sixers' stars, which reduces the C's margin for error considerably.
Boston is shooting .841 from the line this series. They shot .812 during the season.
Tatum: .842 (.854 during season)
Brown: .720 (.765 during season)
Brogdon: .900 (.870 during season)
Smart: .905 (.746 during season)
White: 1.000 (.875 during season)
Horford: 1.000 (.714 during season)
RWilliams: .667 (.610 during season)
Pritchard: 1.000 (.750 during season)
Philly, meanwhile, has shot .874 from the line. Amazing, considering they were .835 from the line during the season.
The other thing that this Celtics team is lacking right now is toughness. If I'm Joe, I put Grant in the starting lineup and tell him to put Harden on his ass the first few drives into the lane. Make that old fuck wary of doing anything inside the three point line. Some old school type shit.
Right, they've shot well in the games they've won. Much like 3 point percentage, that's going to normalize over a longer horizon. If we're specifically looking at why they're losing more games than they're winning in this series, Tatum and Brown combining for 5/9 and 14/21 in the last two games isn't helping (the two FTs that Brown missed in the beginning of the fourth felt particularly egregious because it totally killed their momentum).
A small aside, sports bring out the funniest/most negative parts of us don't they? SSS alert, but texted three good college friends this morning who are all sixers fans:
Question:
"How much faith do you have in Doc & co. closing out this series?"
Answers:
"Honestly, none."
"Extremely little. But even if they pull it out Butler will clown them in the ECF"
"I think they win...but only because Boston seems out of sorts. If Doc could choke this away, he would."
Question:
"How much faith do you have in Doc & co. closing out this series?"
Answers:
"Honestly, none."
"Extremely little. But even if they pull it out Butler will clown them in the ECF"
"I think they win...but only because Boston seems out of sorts. If Doc could choke this away, he would."
Game 1 (loss): Boston shot 17-18 (.944) - Phi 12-12 (1.000)
Game 4 (loss): Boston shot 16-22 (.727) - Phi 19-22 (.864)
Game 5 (loss): Boston shot 25-34 (.735) - Phi 23-27 (.852)
So in game 1 they were great and they lost anyway, but yeah, in games 4 and 5 they shot themselves in the foot from the line, while Philly has been great. Funny though...in the three Philly wins, Boston has scored 58 points from the line compared with 54 for Philly. Still, you make a good point.
I'm trying to save my mental health and not obsess about the Cs so I've not read through the thread since last night, but I was thinking that the two big lineup would be something to try. Would give Embiid more problems than from what I saw last night and the game before.
The shrapnel Jaylen takes around here is hysterical.
The 0-2 the other night from the line was completely eliminated when he got his own rebound after the 2nd miss, and immediately put it back up and made the basket.
The "clutch" free throws last night? We have a different interpretation of clutch. Jaylen didn't a miss a free throw last night in a single instance in which the C's weren't already down 14 points.
Is Jaylen a good free throw shooter? Nope. But shit, I don't remember anyone giving him any credit when he went 15-15 from the line in the first 3 games, and the C's jumped out to a 2-1 series lead.
Al Horford went 0/7 last night, all on basically wide open looks from 3, but it's Jaylen shrinking.
Tatum has been 4-20 from the field in the first halves in the last two games, two games in which the C's were down by 9 at halftime, but it's Jaylen that's shrinking.
I'm being told we're saving Tatum from expending energy on defense because we need him to carry the load on offense, while Brown is being asked to dog Harden all over the court, and people are losing their minds because he missed some free throws in a game that was basically a blowout? Brogdon is out there looking like a turnstile and he couldn't hit a damn layup last night. Derrick White has disappeared.
But nope, let's make sure to swipe at Jaylen whenever possible, the guy who through 11 playoff games, is shooting .553 from the field, and .475 from deep, he's averaging 25.3 points a game on 18 shots. He's averaging 4.0 assists to 2.6 turnovers in this series, which is pretty darn good for him too. That 1.4 points per game he's leaving at the free throw line is not costing us games, which by the way, is only .6 more points per game than Tatum is leaving at the line, because of the volume of free throws Tatum gets.
I know I'm biased, because I love Jaylen and think he's criminally underused on offense, but every 5th post in these threads has some sort of swipe at Jaylen, who IMO, has probably been the best player on the floor for the C's in the playoffs in the majority of the games.
Yeah, just saying the margin of error in Game 4 is so small that simply making 2 more shots would've done the trick. And last night's misses don't make up for the margin, but it was just extremely deflating to feel a run starting only to have some missed free throws totally kill it.
I'm bordering on Bill Simmons level of emotional intuition, so I appreciate that it's not measurable, but it's also just a smaller part of a larger point that Tatum/Brown have been outplayed by Harden/Embiid.
They are switching way too easily (specifically Smart and Brown) when Philly is running PnR with Harden..they’ve got to fight to stay in front of him.
Harden does seem too strong for White…..and Brogdon just can’t defend anyone
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Uh, you think Tatum isn't getting criticized for his performance this series? For example, in the very post you quoted. Or Horford?
Brown is supposedly a max player - the "good for him" stuff is an apt thing to say for, like, cub scouts, but not an all-NBA player who needs to raise his game for the most difficult opponents. The margin of error is very slim and as I said - as a matter of fact, all I said - was that him and Tatum hadn't played as well as Harden and Embiid in the series.
And if you don't think that him missing free throws as they're trying to claw back has any effect on the game, I'm sorry, we just disagree.
But…the numbers that he’s had in this series aren’t Cub Scout levels…they’re All NBA levels on good efficiency. Plus the Ast/TO ratio isn’t good or bad, it’s just mediocre.
The Tatum Vs Brown stuff is getting exhausting for me. They both have their critics around here, no doubt. The difference is that any Tatum criticism is met by about around 8-10 posters telling you why you’re wrong with varying levels of condescension (some arent condescending at all, some are very). It’s to the point that i look like I despise Tatum just because i am willing to say he has bad quarters or halves. And i truly like Tatum! I just am willing to criticize him (same as every other player)
Any other player on the team gets criticized (fairly or unfairly) maybe 4-5 posters and it’s much more civil (when it come to Jaylen, @Deathofthebambino and myself are mostly sticking up for him along with a few others like @Jimbodandy)
When it comes to last nights game, I think it’s fair to note that Jayson started off terribly and then he recovered to have a nice game. Unfortunately, the secondary players on the team couldn’t rise up with him and the hole that was dug at first was too hard to get out of.
I don’t think Jaylen put forth the effort on defense last night that he did in Game 2 and 3. Maybe he was tired? I don’t know but he wasn’t fighting through the screens like he was. The free throw thing is annoying for sure but I think the die had been cast at that point. I guess opinions can vary on that but I thought the game was pretty much over with a little time left in the 3rd quarter,.
It got smoked when they ran it earlier in the series, it gives them 2 bigs to attack instead of one.
The defense was good in the regular season, it's getting shredded this round, but no more than GS shredded it in the finals.
There are certain matchups this team struggles with and one of the keys is chasing ball handlers around screens when they are real threats to score. White can't handle the physicality of a Harden, Smart has lost quickness and guys like Maxey eat him up, Horford isn't superman anymore on the switch, and WIlliams and Brown both struggle with decision making and positioning.
Last year we were helped in the playoffs by playing a lot of teams with 1 option, where we could just shut that guy down (KD) or build a wall (Giannis) and say "go ahead and beat us role players' until we got to the finals and had no answer for Steph. We struggled a bit with Great Value Steph in round 1 but generally were fine.... but Harden/Embiid is killing us, we thought we had an answer with Brown on Harden, but then they started putting him in actions that required a lot of focus and good decisions.... he struggled. Then we put in Brogdon for shooting and they hunt him.
The answer should be more Smart, but he's playing 1 good game in every 3 or 4 this post-season, all year really he took a clea step back
edit- also worth mentioning, offense is way up this year and defense down across the league.
Tatum drove 18 times yesterday, I want to see that again. I don’t mind the threes, but get going at the rim first, then take the shots from outside lol. He’s been REALLY aggressive driving this series, leads the team by 2.4 a game, at 14.8, and that includes the 19 minute game 2. I want to see more of that early tomorrow.
For the playoffs he’s at 75% within 3 feet, it’s 80% for this series, which is an insanely high number. He can finish around Embiid, just needs to do it a bit more lol.
For the playoffs he’s at 75% within 3 feet, it’s 80% for this series, which is an insanely high number. He can finish around Embiid, just needs to do it a bit more lol.
The defense got worse this year because their best defenders are either declining due to age (smart, horford) or injury (timelord). Putting it on joe is a bit much in my opinion.