Sounds about right with Middleton confirmed out and Rob seemingly fully back.
What’s more interesting is that 538 regards this series as almost a de facto ECF. Combined odds of Celtics and Bucks to make the finals is 75%.
you have to show results on the pollUpdated thread title and added poll. LFG!
Not sure what you meanyou have to show results on the poll
It was interesting seeing many "other NBA fans" picking the Nets to knock off the Celtics
White and Smart have great "charge reputations" so while Horford/Grant take turns guarding Giannis, DW/MS will be waiting for him in the lane. With TL swatting. We could see a very flummoxed GiannisI'm going to seriously have issues with an entire series of watching Giannis put his shoulder down and treat defenders like bowling pins, while parading to the free throw line. I like Giannis a lot, but man, I hate his game with the fire of a thousand suns. There's a good chance Marcus or White or Grant get fouled out than Giannis getting called for the half dozen charges he commits each quarter. He got hit with an early offensive foul last night, and the next 3 times that the defender was clearly in position, defensive foul, leading Chicago to blow their challenge in the 2nd quarter because it was so damn obvious (and Giannis made the bucket so they were looking at 3 point play). Not overturned.
we should all be able to see who everyone votes for, I guess that probably only happens after the poll gets locked and the series startsNot sure what you mean
It's a poll option that I didn't select when creating the poll, I didn't realize people care who specifically votes for which option. Unfortunately I can't edit it now.we should all be able to see who everyone votes, I guess that probably only happens after the poll gets locked and the series starts
Wow. I have not followed the non-Celtics NBA closely this season but those stats/ranks are nuts.
If the Cs can keep MIL out of transition - i.e., they don't miss a ton of shots and keep their TOs down - I agree that Giannis will be flummoxed. Without Middleton as an offensive threat, MIL just doesn't have enough players who can create in the half-court so I would expect BOS to be able to shut down MIL with their set defense.White and Smart have great "charge reputations" so while Horford/Grant take turns guarding Giannis, DW/MS will be waiting for him in the lane. With TL swatting. We could see a very flummoxed Giannis
Celtics in 5, losing Middleton is too much to lose.
The C's Achilles heel is 3pt shooting and the Bucks will let them fire at will. The C's will need to shoot better from there then in the Nets series
I don't think there will be a primary defender of Giannis as the Cs will switch off a lot.Who is going to be the primary defender of Giannis? I presume Al will start on him, acknowledging it will be a team effort. I am concerned that if Grant is going play big minutes guarding GA, he will get in serious foul trouble, which would have the double whammy effect of taking one of our best and most versatile defenders and one of our most effective 3 point shooters off the court. Grant has become a pretty valuable piece, and if he's in constant foul trouble, could have a cascading effect on our effectiveness.
Yup, anyone that watched the Bucks success last season in crunch time will have seen just how valuable Middleton is. He isn't just a sidekick to Giannis; he is their go-to guy in crunch time because of his ability to create his own shot, and in particular, make difficult shots against good defense. He can do some things that Giannis can't do, and without him Milwaukee will be lost in certain scenarios.The Bucks haven't really felt it yet, mainly because Allen set two playoff career highs in Games 3 and 4, but this quote from Eric Nets (Bucks beat writer) in The Athletic really shows how incredibly valuable Middleton is: "Middleton was one of 17 NBA players to average at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game. Only 44 percent of his makes were assisted this season, which means not only was he putting up big numbers, he was the one creating the shots."
a rough guess would be a lot of Horford/Grant. With some Jaylen, Smart, TL, Theis mixed in. I'm really keeping Tatum away from him, he's by far the C's most important player, and don't want JT expending too much effort guarding Giannis.Who is going to be the primary defender of Giannis? I presume Al will start on him, acknowledging it will be a team effort. I am concerned that if Grant is going play big minutes guarding GA, he will get in serious foul trouble, which would have the double whammy effect of taking one of our best and most versatile defenders and one of our most effective 3 point shooters off the court. Grant has become a pretty valuable piece, and if he's in constant foul trouble, could have a cascading effect on our effectiveness.
I agree 100%. And KM's ability to do those things is magnified against the Celtics, since -- as someone else noted upthread -- he seems to average about 38ppg against Boston. (Sidenote: I wonder if certain players doing especially well against certain teams, regardless of sport, is a real thing or just a fallacy like "clutch.")Yup, anyone that watched the Bucks success last season in crunch time will have seen just how valuable Middleton is. He isn't just a sidekick to Giannis; he is their go-to guy in crunch time because of his ability to create his own shot, and in particular, make difficult shots against good defense. He can do some things that Giannis can't do, and without him Milwaukee will be lost in certain scenarios.
Brad would stick Kemba on Lopez on the perimeter. I'm not expecting IME to waste Al's skills on Brook Lopez camping out on the perimeter.I think Al will be on Lopez as Lopez will be drifting out by the 3P line. I also think MIL will ask Lopez to post up TL if they ever get matched-up so starting Horford on Lopez will minimize that.
If MIL's starting line-up is Lopez / Giannis / Portis / Matthews / Holiday, I think BOS will start TL on Matthews to keep TL closest to the basket (Matthews will be parked in the corner). That means Horford on Lopez, JT/JB on Portis and Giannis. I think JB will start on Giannis.
On T&R this morning, one of them cited a metric (wasn't clear which) that ranked the Bucks ahead of the Cs in defense during Round 1. I guess it's possible that not facing Kevin Durant helped...Yeah the Bucks aren't a good defense, they're a team that gives up a lot of good looks and hopes you miss.
Now the Celtics' biggest weakness on offense is the somewhat dodgy outside shooting of Smart, Theis, White, etc... so it might not be a great matchup.
Without even looking beyond score lines, I would expect most d metrics to say the Bucks were better in round 1 since the Bulls scored 100 or less in every game but one.On T&R this morning, one of them cited a metric (wasn't clear which) that ranked the Bucks ahead of the Cs in defense during Round 1. I guess it's possible that not facing Kevin Durant helped...
I believe they do, and we also need to remember that Lopez missed most of the season, and he’s probably their 3rd most important defender.Surprising to me a team with Giannis and Jrue with such poor defensive numbers. Wonder if they have another gear for the playoffs…
Yup, I'd take their regular season numbers with a grain of salt.I believe they do, and we also need to remember that Lopez missed most of the season, and he’s probably their 3rd most important defender.
Now even with that said, the loss of Tucker, and now Middleton? They are a much less versatile defense, and a lot easier to spread out. Tatum has lit them up the last couple of years, as he tends to do against drop coverage big men, and Jaylen/Smart have both been very good as well. It’ll come down to if we hit our threes or not, and limiting turnovers. Here’s the numbers for those three against the Bucks the last couple of years.Yup, I'd take their regular season numbers with a grain of salt.
Yeah, I agree.I believe they do, and we also need to remember that Lopez missed most of the season, and he’s probably their 3rd most important defender.
I don’t understand, is he hurt or not? How do you “manage” a hamstring injury?View: https://twitter.com/keithsmithnba/status/1519726320334393344
Per Udoka, Jaylen's hamstring could cause issues this series, but he is expected to play in game 1. Sounds like he'll be at least somewhat hobbled. Not great.
I'm still a little unclear on this injury. Has anyone with the Celtics called it a "strain" or "grade 1 strain"? Or is it just a little sore?View: https://twitter.com/keithsmithnba/status/1519726320334393344
Per Udoka, Jaylen's hamstring could cause issues this series, but he is expected to play in game 1. Sounds like he'll be at least somewhat hobbled. Not great.
That's the confusing part. Only makes sense if it's just a bit sore/tight but he got an MRI that was normal. Maybe he did and I missed that report.I don’t understand, is he hurt or not? How do you “manage” a hamstring injury?
And surely the Bucks know how all about flipping switches since they were tasked with having go through the 18/19 Kyrie "just wait until playoffs" Irving-lead celtics team.Yup, I'd take their regular season numbers with a grain of salt.
What would that be, lactic acid? How do you have a sore hamstring for a week that could impact your play and a clean MRI?That's the confusing part. Only makes sense if it's just a bit sore/tight but he got an MRI that was normal. Maybe he did and I missed that report.
He didn’t mention whether Brown got an MRI, he just described the injury as ‘tightness.’I'm still a little unclear on this injury. Has anyone with the Celtics called it a "strain" or "grade 1 strain"? Or is it just a little sore?
I haven't heard if he got an MRI, but I assume the MRI was probably normal (if it was done) if they expecting him to play game 1.
Sure, people get muscle soreness/tightness all the time, they don't always have an abnormal MRI.What would that be, lactic acid? How do you have a sore hamstring for a week that could impact your play and a clean MRI?
A week at his age, with professional care at his disposal, just seems like a long time for tightness and no injury. Maybe it’s normal. Or maybe he ends up with the nickname “Jay D,” you’ll get your professional excellent production 75% of every year.Sure, people get muscle soreness/tightness all the time, they don't always have an abnormal MRI.
It's a hamstring injury, not broken ribs or a shoulder contusion. What could an opponent do to exacerbate a hamstring injury? Make him jump a lot? Run fast?A week at his age, with professional care at his disposal, just seems like a long time for tightness and no injury. Maybe it’s normal. Or maybe he ends up with the nickname “Jay D,” you’ll get your professional excellent production 75% of every year.
Also, kinda strange how Ime is always completely transparent about injuries. I’m not sure this is exactly the type of thing you want to advertise?
Go at him directly one on one on offense? Which they might try to avoid, given his status as an elite defender.It's a hamstring injury, not broken ribs or a shoulder contusion. What could an opponent do to exacerbate a hamstring injury? Make him jump a lot? Run fast?
538 has the Celts at 75% to win this series and 59% to make the Finals, which implies that they would actually be an even heavier favorite next round (59/75 = 78.7%)is it my irrational fear of Miami, their fantastic staff, and ability to have marginal players play great against Boston, in that I feel Boston may have a 75% chance to beat Milwaukee, but is no better than 50/50 to beat Mia in the hypothetical ECF?
I think Horford and Tatum will spend the most time on him as they are probably the two best defenders to use on him. Others will spend time too (Grant, Smart, Theis, Jaylen), but probably a lot less. Jaylen is the worst defender among the starters and, especially with his injury, the guy we likely try to hide from this assignment the most. I’d expect us to camp Jaylen on less dangerous offensive players as part of the managing of his hamstring Ime has spoken about. Smart and Grant are both very equal to defending Giannis in short bursts and White probably is too.Who is going to be the primary defender of Giannis? I presume Al will start on him, acknowledging it will be a team effort. I am concerned that if Grant is going play big minutes guarding GA, he will get in serious foul trouble, which would have the double whammy effect of taking one of our best and most versatile defenders and one of our most effective 3 point shooters off the court. Grant has become a pretty valuable piece, and if he's in constant foul trouble, could have a cascading effect on our effectiveness.
Miami didn’t beat this squad in a playoff series. We just need to get over the Kemba Walker years.is it my irrational fear of Miami, their fantastic staff, and ability to have marginal players play great against Boston, in that I feel Boston may have a 75% chance to beat Milwaukee, but is no better than 50/50 to beat Mia in the hypothetical ECF?