It sometimes seems like the last two minute reports really are closer to performance art than they are to real transparency around officiating.
Celtics vs. Heat, Round 3 Discussion
- Thread starter tims4wins
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This is a great post. All I would add is that the Celtics didn’t have this problem for most of the second half of the season because they blew the doors off of everybody. If there’s one thing hanging in everybody’s minds now, it’s the end of the Dallas game when Luka killed us. That felt like a flashback to earlier in the season but was both an outlier and driven by an all-time great player.
That said, I actually do think JVG has a point. This team needs to play offense with rhythm and flow. They look awful when they get out of their rhythm which happens every now and again mid game and they usually correct it after a timeout. In this case, while I do agree they got good shots for Marcus, Grant and Jaylen at the end, I wonder if part of the reason they all clanged and were turned over is that while they were ostensibly open looks in space, none were received in the usual flow and rhythm that they are used to.
One big step I had to take as a coach was to accept my team getting good shots, not the best shots. You may get a team that gets the best shot 50% of the time if you are lucky to have a group that has been together a while and at least three really smart players. Getting a good shot is usually all you can hope for, against good opponents even that is tough.
On the other hand, you can say that the Cs got two shots off with 4 seconds left on the clock (one was the GW strip) and one with 6 seconds so that's pretty good clock management.
Also, you made a point about Smart missing Horford wide open before his first 3P. I don't know if I'd call him wide-open when Smart gathers for his shot - Oladipo was there. True, Oladipo was coming off Horford to contest Smart and maybe Smart should have figured that out but that's not the easiest pass to lob it into Horford while evading Oladipo.
The real questionable decision was JB taking it to the basket but like Butler's 3P, I think I have to live with that from my team's stars.
Maybe. Traveling isn't really ticky-tack to me and the video of Butler wasn't like he was in there 3.2 seconds.
I think JB’s decision to drive was largely because he was going to get trapped in the corner so he had to move fast. That entire possession was a disaster because you had Smart camping out in the corner like Bruce Bowen and not able to help and Horford/Williams at the top. Credit to Miami’s D on that possession. They got the Celtics to do exactly what they wanted.
Marcus threaded a 10x harder pass with an up fake, 2 secs on the clock, against the Nets Game 1
survive and advance...100% confidence in IME correcting end of game flaws...
Like many have said there is a definite improvement. ie Tatum was completely on point
I'm cool with any and all takes/opinions, I mean that's what most of us are here for.
BUT we can end factually incorrect takes like burn 22 seconds & get a clean look with the video
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And the entire league, except for the Warriors, is talking about it on the golf course, or twitter.We like open 3pt looks but the bolded isn't really accurate. Granted Miami hit some amazing shots ie Strus JAM and 3but the Celtics clock mgmt/approach was not good. This team has been bad late/tight all season, the entire league knows it.
This sounds right. It makes sense as a general observation -- teams do better when they are playing the style they play better in.
What should they be doing when the defense collapses on Tatum once he begins his move to the basket? If he forces a shot or commits a turnover he’d be criticized for playing “hero ball” now when his teammate misses open shots he’s criticized for that too? Miami has one of the best halfcourt defenses in the league……getting off clean looks down the stretch is an accomplishment in itself as we saw when Jaylen tried to create off the dribble.
Since I posted Game 6, I'll post Game 7 too. Shot Quality thinks the Celtics got pretty lucky and the Heat had a 65% chance to win that game based on shots taken.
Obviously this all comes down to how much you trust their categorization/algorithm, so take it with a grain of salt if you want.
Certainly it felt like the Heat were far luckier in game 6 than game 7. The Heat shooting only 20% on 3s in Game 7 saved the Celtics given how badly they played down the stretch.
Obviously this all comes down to how much you trust their categorization/algorithm, so take it with a grain of salt if you want.
Certainly it felt like the Heat were far luckier in game 6 than game 7. The Heat shooting only 20% on 3s in Game 7 saved the Celtics given how badly they played down the stretch.
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"proprietary algorithm" together with 90 variables, my spidey senses are telling me they definitely overfit. There just isn't enough data (imo) to build a robust model that is using 90 variables but also not overfitting. Unless that is just marketing bullshit to make it sound fancy.
(End modelling digression).
Yeah, I would also bet on the model being questionable. The times I have looked it's matched up generally with what I've seen, but I definitely wouldn't assume any precision here either.
Haralabos Voulgaris posts teams expected points per possession all the time based on some website. Basically the same thing.
The idea is sound but I think you need to be pretty careful about how you implement it. For a single game I am not sure applying it to only 70 shots will be helpful, especially if it has some kind of systemic errors that don't show up when aggregating over all their test data.
What part is false. Should Tatum take a bad shot/commit charge (like Jaylen did) or find the open shooter? It’s human nature to be results oriented but I felt Tatum made a ton of correct decisions with the ball in the 4Q of the last two games. It’s a sign of his maturity and taking that next step.
Wouldn't another option be to run Tatum or Brown off multiple screens to try to get them open looks? I'm not complaining about the game end play here, as I thought the looks Smart got were actually quite good, but trying to think of other ways they might execute offensively outside of Tatum initiating the offense.
It's a "false choice" because nobody was criticizing Tatum's end-of-game play
JT basically carried the team down the stretch by burning clock, drawing doubles, being strong with ball, passing to the open man and single-handedly putting Miami in rotation. I think we all agree with that.
The majority of the C's end-of-game improvement has come from JT's decision-making. The next step is for the rest to follow suit and not shoot long jumpers or drive into traffic with more than 4-5 secs on the shot clock when they are running BURN
Miami was ready to jump those screens with a defender from each side. They were ready to swallow Tatum up as soon as he put the ball to the floor to attack. Our first order of business on these possessions is to not turn the ball over which is not a given against Miami’s pressure. The best way to avoid a turnover that likely leads to a quick basket is to get the ball into Tatum’s hands rather than have one of our non-PG’s attempt to create under these conditions.
Smart's first missed 3 came with at least 10 seconds left on the clock, his second with at least 5, his third with at least 6. Brown's offensive foul came with at least 16 on the clock. Butler got the ball back after Smart's missed layup with 18 seconds left and took the would have been go-ahead 3 with 16 left.
Maybe they should have really committed to the killing clock bit?
I think what's hard is that at 10 seconds left and a Smart open look you cannot be sure there's going to be an equal opportunity later in the shot clock. Given the time remaining in the game and the score it's a fair criticism, but I would guess Celts have told guys to shoot there.
My comment in the game thread---which I still tend to believe is true---is that after missing a shot or two Smart perhaps should have driven to the hole and tried to create contact or see if a good look opened up for someone else. But as HRB notes, mission number one is to avoid turnovers and that carries a higher one than shooting.
The Brown offensive foul was a bad idea, in that if you take it early in the clock you pretty much need to be sure you have a dunk out of it, and while I like his confidence he shouldn't have had as much. So there, I just think that's a mistake.
My comment in the game thread---which I still tend to believe is true---is that after missing a shot or two Smart perhaps should have driven to the hole and tried to create contact or see if a good look opened up for someone else. But as HRB notes, mission number one is to avoid turnovers and that carries a higher one than shooting.
The Brown offensive foul was a bad idea, in that if you take it early in the clock you pretty much need to be sure you have a dunk out of it, and while I like his confidence he shouldn't have had as much. So there, I just think that's a mistake.
98-91 1:11 left - Smart misses 3 - 12 secs left on the shot clock
No doubt. It's a 3 possession game, burning clock is much more important than taking a deep 3-pointer from your worst shooter with half the shot clock left. The math is close to turning this into a FT shooting contest if they just burn.
Agree with many that Jaylen compounded it even more with the next possession. Driving into plus defenders, Butler/Bam, with 15 secs on the shot clock & :53 left in the game isn't very clever.
The team won, but it's fair to criticize Smart/Brown's approach in those two instances.
Running BURN by manipulating shot clock vs game clock isn't some new-fangled, complex hoops play. It basically happens at the end of every quarter, at the end of every game, at every level of basketball over the last 100yrs.
Then again you have so-called hoop media experts/NBA intelligentsia (Marc Jones) not understanding the concept of burning game clock while not starting shot clock
