Chris Simms: Brady Not Top-5 QB Anymore
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Seels said:
This is exactly right. I feel like I'm making a similar argument to the one I made in the "build the best Pats team" thread with respect to AV/Ghost. The argument against Brady and Manning in conversations like this boils down to nothing more than people are tired of them, and people want to believe that the "young guns" are finally surpassing them. It's the same reason that Barry Bonds didn't win every single MVP award, or Lebron, or Sydney Crosby. They are clearly the best players in their respective sports, but people eventually want to change it up. At some point, those folks will be right, but not yet. One of them makes it to the Super Bowl basically ever year, and they are the odds on favorites of getting their teams to the Super Bowl this year.
People can argue that their arm strength is diminishing, and in Manning's case, I would agree, but to my eye, it doesn't appear to be affecting him at all. He puts balls literally in the exact spot that they need to be almost every single time he throws the ball. Whether or not it's getting there a little slower than before means absolutely fucking nothing in a debate about whether or not he's still one of the best QB's in the league. As for Brady, I will argue to my death that if you hooked Tom Brady up to a radar gun right now, you would find out that his arm strength hasn't gone down one bit, and in fact, is stronger now than it was in 2001 or 2002. Jesus Christ, go look at some of the throws he's made the past few weeks and tell me he doesn't have the arm strength he's always had. Againn, who gives a flying fuck if his arm isn't as strong as Rodgers or someone else's. Michael Vick has one of the strongest arm this planet has ever seen, but it doesn't mean he's anywhere near this conversation. It's just a fucking stupid anecdotal argument that people have to make when nothing else will work for them.
And mobility? Since when were Tom Brady or Peyton Manning mobile? I don't want either of them running anything more than a QB sneak as a fan of the NFL. However, I will take their mobility and awareness in the pocket (particularly Brady) and compare it to anyone in this league, whether we are talking about now, or the history of the NFL. That's what makes a great QB. Again, Michael Vick was the greatest running QB the league has ever seen, and Wilson has done some great things with his legs this year, but don't even try to tell me that Chris Simms or anyone else would want one of them starting the Super Bowl for their team this year over Brady or Manning.
When I read a question like "Pick the top 5 QB's in the league," I think to myself "Who would I want to start in the Super Bowl if I could pick anyone in the league right now?" Any answer other than Brady or Manning to that question is just plain irrational. And if that doesn't make them numbers 1 and 2 in whatever order you choose, I don't know what does.
Deathofthebambino said:
Hmmm. Ok. Good rant.
But, can I please make the case for Matthew Stafford? He has been to a playoff game and he threw for three TDs and for over 300 yards so he made the most of it. His two interceptions that led to the loss were not entirely his fault so I don't know what else to tell you. He is that good.
You guys are giving short shrift to Matt Flynn. He threw 5 TDs against a Bill Belichick defense. Brady ever done that?
I linked it in the first post, but Mark Brown wrote about this yesterday.
Simms: Wilson Over Manning and Brady
Simms: Wilson Over Manning and Brady
I linked it in the first post, but Mark Brown wrote about this yesterday.
Simms: Wilson Over Manning and Brady
Quote
Okay, now I'm offended. Chris Simms is a "pundit"? Based on what - being punny?
Simms: Wilson Over Manning and Brady
Quote
Okay, now I'm offended. Chris Simms is a "pundit"? Based on what - being punny?
Don't know how to link the image from my mobile, but an interesting chart in this article that graphs win % vs expected win % of some of the QBs mentioned here.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-special-midterm-edition/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-special-midterm-edition/
Not the point of this discussion, but Gost is so much better than every other kicker it is amazing.RFDA2000 said:
Stitch01 said:
As a quarterback and guy who can throw the football. Sure.
As a guy who steps up on the biggest stages, with massive pressure, has the ability to bring his team back from behind, etc. and basically do those things that separate great QB's from all time great QB's? Not so sure. If i was starting a team tomorrow, Rodgers is probably my guy. But, if the Super Bowl was tomorrow and I could pick any of those three guys to lead my team. I'm going Brady, Manning, Rodgers, in that order, and based on their career history (and recent history for that matter), I don't think it's all that close. In four months, Rodgers may well have led the Packers to a Super Bowl win, and at that point, I'll happily switch my order around to Rodgers, Brady, Manning, but he's just not there yet.
Deathofthebambino said:
This is a silly argument. Did you forget that Rodgers has already won a Super Bowl, in which he was voted MVP with a line of 24-39/303/3/0? And that Green Bay won three playoff road games to get there? And that his career playoff passer rating is 103.1, the second highest of all time (behind Bart Starr)? Passer rating is an imperfect measure and that doesn't factor in era adjustments, but the idea that Rodgers somehow doesn't get it done when it matters, or hasn't proven he can handle playoff pressure, is laughable.
coremiller said:
He was pretty damn good in 2010 but has otherwise been less impressive--1-4 record as a stater, one and done three times including two home losses (one as the one seed--and he played like shit in that game).
Shelterdog said:
"Other than the year he won four playoff games including the Super Bowl in which he was MVP, his playoff record is less than impressive." He's only played 9 playoff games, so you're removing almost half the sample. How good does the bottom 5/9 of Brady or Manning's or Montana's or any other top QB's playoff history look?
Even still, you cite his losing record in those five games. Points the Green Bay defense has allowed in those four losses: 51,37,45,23. Two of those games rank among the worst defensive performances in playoff history, in which the defense allowed 531 (to AZ) and 579 (to SF) yards. A third was last year, in his second game back from a broken collar bone, in brutally cold conditions (game time temperature was 5 degrees, -10 windchill), in which Green Bay was a home dog and Rodgers twice led 4th-quarter drives to take the lead or tie the game, but the defense couldn't hold and they lost on the last play of the game. The only home loss as a favorite was the home loss to the Giants, when he was mediocre: 26-46, 264, 2 TDs/1 INT.
I just don't see any evidence for the "Rodgers can't get it done in the playoffs" narrative. Quite the contrary, it seems to me. Hell, I didn't even know that narrative existed until multiple posters rolled it out in this thread.
That Giants team made a lot of QBs look bad. Using W/L record is also very deceptive, especially if it's with the proviso that we're not considering the year he went 4-0. Has Rodgers ever lost a playoff game when he clearly had the better team? That game against the Giants comes closest but I'm not sure his team was actually better in retrospect. He definitely had the worse team against the 49ers both years. And knocking him at all for anything in that Arizona game is ridiculous.Shelterdog said:
Consensus on good football boards without team affiliations is Manning, Rodgers (gap) Brady.Deathofthebambino said:
I probably flip between Manning and Rodgers. Brady is great but hard for me to argue for him to start over Manning or Rodgers given his performance in the regular season over the last several years has been weaker and all have had their share of playoff hits and misses.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Agree.
Rodgers' performance against the Giants in the playoffs that year: 26-46, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Rodgers added 66 yards rushing on 7 carries. Green Bay also had six dropped passes in that game.
Brady's performance against the Giants in the Super Bowl; 27-41, 276 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.
Almost identical, except for the rushing value.
Rodgers had the advantage of playing at home, but Brady had much better conditions -- the GB-NYG game was played in 20mph winds with a 19 degree wind chill.
And people are citing this as the worst playoff game of Rodgers' career.
Loved these charts and wish they had a version for just playoff games to put some data behind this playoff performance argument.RFDA2000 said:
Incidentally, Nate Silver's summation of the charts on Twitter was "Tony Romo is clutch when behind. Rodgers is clutch when ahead. Tom Brady is clutch always."
Yours is an arguable position. I'm not sure I agree with Rodgers over Brady, but this part of it is a real weak link. Terrible, in fact.coremiller said:
Edit: misspelling
Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
I don't see your point. All I'm saying is that Rodgers did about the same against that defense as Brady did three weeks later, and while it wasn't Brady's best game no one thinks Brady stunk up the joint in that Super Bowl. This is all within the context of people arguing that that game against the Giants was Rodgers' worst playoff performance. My point is just that, if that's his worst performance, then he's a pretty damn good playoff QB, contrary to the "Rodgers isn't a proven playoff QB" narrative that has suddenly sprung up around here for inexplicable reasons.
coremiller said:
No one is saying he sucks or anything like that, the question is whether he's number 1, 2, or 3 on your wish list of playoff QBs.
Top-10 Wish List of All-Time Playoff QBs (based on their real history in the playoffs):
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Peyton Manning
3. Dan Marino
4. Eli Manning
5. Big Ben
6. Steve Young
7. Joe Montana
8. Bart Starr
9. Trent Dilfer (it's easy to forget how many road playoff victories he had)
10. Joe Flacco (beat Brady in Gillette twice!!!)
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Peyton Manning
3. Dan Marino
4. Eli Manning
5. Big Ben
6. Steve Young
7. Joe Montana
8. Bart Starr
9. Trent Dilfer (it's easy to forget how many road playoff victories he had)
10. Joe Flacco (beat Brady in Gillette twice!!!)
Shelterdog said:
Well, people are claiming that he's not "clutch", and arguing that Brady and Manning are better because they are more "clutch". This is dumb.
Deathofthebambino said:
Seels said:
rodderick said:
rodderick said:
My point was, and is, that it's really silly to cap off your otherwise arguable-ish post with, "I mean, sure, Rodgers WAS PLAYING AT HOME AND ALL, but..." 'cause you're glossing over it like HFA is some minor factor, just because Brady played in better conditions.coremiller said:
Edit: because of the stupid and the crazy
It's really just 2013. This year Brady is putting up numbers that basically match up with anybody. In 2012, he threw for 4827 yards, 34 TDs / 8 INTs (leading the NFL in EPA) and the Patriots led the NFL in scoring and yardage. I don't have a problem with someone preferring Rodgers or Manning over Brady, but if you're leaving #12 out of the conversation you're putting too much weight on one season, IMO - and one where there were tons of extenuating circumstances and the Patriots still finished 3rd in points, 7th in yards, and went 12-4.Stitch01 said:
coremiller said:
I'm pretty sure that nothing I've written resembles this sentence at all. But feel free to keep responding and/or quoting it.
And just to be clear, as if it wasn't, I don't think Rodgers sucks by any means. Christ, I said he would be my third pick to lead my team to a Super Bowl tomorrow.
However, Tom Brady has 18 playoff wins in 26 starts. Manning has 11 in 23 career starts. They are without a shred of a doubt, two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever hold a pigskin. As of right now, there is no argument that even holds a tiny droplet of water that they aren't currently playing the game at the highest of high levels. There is virtually no drop off between them now, and five years ago. Aaron Rodgers is an amazing quarterback, and someday, he may be better than both of them. Like I said, in about 4 months, maybe I'll revisit it if he leads his team to another Super Bowl, but right now, today? I just don't know why I'm leaving Joe Montana on my bench when he's still Joe Montana. Rodgers hasn't done enough yet to show me he deserves to be on the field over Brady or Manning right now, or more importantly, Brady and Manning haven't shown me anything to lead me to believe that they can't do it anymore.
However, Tom Brady has 18 playoff wins in 26 starts. Manning has 11 in 23 career starts. They are without a shred of a doubt, two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever hold a pigskin. As of right now, there is no argument that even holds a tiny droplet of water that they aren't currently playing the game at the highest of high levels. There is virtually no drop off between them now, and five years ago. Aaron Rodgers is an amazing quarterback, and someday, he may be better than both of them. Like I said, in about 4 months, maybe I'll revisit it if he leads his team to another Super Bowl, but right now, today? I just don't know why I'm leaving Joe Montana on my bench when he's still Joe Montana. Rodgers hasn't done enough yet to show me he deserves to be on the field over Brady or Manning right now, or more importantly, Brady and Manning haven't shown me anything to lead me to believe that they can't do it anymore.
Agreed none of this is a shot at any of these three. They are all great, two are the best five QBs of all time and one might get there.
I don't put as much weight on Super Bowls and playoff records as most here (not zero weight, but my evaluation of Brady doesn't change much if Welker catches one more ball) but since Rodgers became a starter in '08 the playoff records are:
Rodgers 5-4, 1 SB, 1 ring
Brady 4-5, 1 SB, 0 rings
Manning 4-5, 2 SB, 0 rings
QB rating by playoff game (shorthand obviously)
Rodgers: 121.4, 122.5, 136.8, 55.4, 111.5, 78.5, 104.9, 91.5, 97.8
Brady: 49.1, 89, 137.6, 57.5, 91.1, 115, 62.3, 78.4, 93.9
Manning: 90.4, 87.9,123.6, 88.5, 108.7, 88.3, 93.5, 118.4,73.5
Regular season
ANY/A
2014: Rodgers 9.11 (1), Manning 8.16 (2), Brady 7.48 (6)
2013: Manning 8.87 (2), Rodgers 8.00(4), Brady 6.13 (14)
2012: Manning 7.89 (1), Brady 7.48 (3), Rodgers 7.33 (5)
2011: Rodgers 9.39 (1), Brady 8.25 (2)
2010: Brady 8.25 (1), Rodgers 7.5 (3), Manning 6.48 (9)
2009: Manning 7.51 (5), Rodgers 7.47 (6), Brady 7.38 (9)
2008: Manning 6.88 (6), Rodgers 6.64 (10)
I have a hard time looking at those numbers and the level Rodgers is playing at this year and saying he shouldn't even be in the conversation. The three have been pretty damn similar and playing at a similar high level for years depending on how much you think Brady's last year and a half should be adjusted due to personnel and it looks like Rodgers is playing at at least as high of a level in the playoffs.
I don't put as much weight on Super Bowls and playoff records as most here (not zero weight, but my evaluation of Brady doesn't change much if Welker catches one more ball) but since Rodgers became a starter in '08 the playoff records are:
Rodgers 5-4, 1 SB, 1 ring
Brady 4-5, 1 SB, 0 rings
Manning 4-5, 2 SB, 0 rings
QB rating by playoff game (shorthand obviously)
Rodgers: 121.4, 122.5, 136.8, 55.4, 111.5, 78.5, 104.9, 91.5, 97.8
Brady: 49.1, 89, 137.6, 57.5, 91.1, 115, 62.3, 78.4, 93.9
Manning: 90.4, 87.9,123.6, 88.5, 108.7, 88.3, 93.5, 118.4,73.5
Regular season
ANY/A
2014: Rodgers 9.11 (1), Manning 8.16 (2), Brady 7.48 (6)
2013: Manning 8.87 (2), Rodgers 8.00(4), Brady 6.13 (14)
2012: Manning 7.89 (1), Brady 7.48 (3), Rodgers 7.33 (5)
2011: Rodgers 9.39 (1), Brady 8.25 (2)
2010: Brady 8.25 (1), Rodgers 7.5 (3), Manning 6.48 (9)
2009: Manning 7.51 (5), Rodgers 7.47 (6), Brady 7.38 (9)
2008: Manning 6.88 (6), Rodgers 6.64 (10)
I have a hard time looking at those numbers and the level Rodgers is playing at this year and saying he shouldn't even be in the conversation. The three have been pretty damn similar and playing at a similar high level for years depending on how much you think Brady's last year and a half should be adjusted due to personnel and it looks like Rodgers is playing at at least as high of a level in the playoffs.
Ralphwiggum said:
It's in the bottom three, but we need a new thread to discuss which is the worst.
I think this came up in a different thread:riboflav said:
1. Luck (ignore the interception per game)
2. Rodgers
3. Manning (Peyton not Eli)
4. Big Ben
5. JONAS GRAY
not sure if I'd take Ben before Gray. He has terrible YAC.