David Ortiz will retire at end of 2016 season.

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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20 ties him for 4th all-time with Andre Dawson and Roberto Clemente.

Dusty Baker had 21, Tony Perez 22, and Frank Robinson 26.
I assume this is regular season only?
Right. Papi has three in the post-season. Perez has one. None of the others appear to have had any, although modern players I guess play more playoff games so there are a lot more post-1970 walk off playoff hits than earlier ones. (Bobby Thompson's hit, for example, was not in the playoffs.)

With his walk-off double, Ortiz joins Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron as just the third player in Major League Baseball history with 600 doubles and 500 home runs in his career.
Of course, over a month ago, Papi was also only the third player in MLB history to have 586 doubles and 500 home runs too, but the ladies love the round numbers I guess.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Here's the top 10 list if you include post-season. (Posted mainly because Fisk jumps up into the top 10 when you include post-season walk offs.)

1 F Robinson 26
2 Ortiz 23
3 Perez 23
4 D Baker 21
5 A Dawson 20
6 R Clemente 20
7 B Robinson 19
8 Whitaker 19
9 Mota 19
9t Staub 19
9t Fisk 19
 

snowmanny

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Right now Ortiz is leading the majors in OPS at 1.101

Edit: Dias 1.100 / Harper 1.088 / Altuve 1.079 / Machado 1.077
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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So, the walk off discussion raises a question what we think about Hinch's decision to pitch to Papi once Xander was in scoring position. How much do you let clutch reputation affect your decisions?

Just looking at the numbers, the primary question seems to be whether the advantage of having a two-strike count on a left-handed batter outweighs the advantage that your right-handed pitcher would have against the right-handed batter in the on-deck circle.

Just looking at the numbers, Hinch's decision was justifiable. Papi on 2-2 is a career .201 hitter. I can't find splits that show batting average against a RHP by count, but since about 70 percent of Papi's at bats are against RHP, his 2-2 batting average probably doesn't go up too much. His full count batting average jumps up to .253, so if he works the count full, Hinch has a second decision to make whether to put him on. But my question is whether you pitch to him 2-2.

What about Hanley? Hanley doesn't seem to care much which arm the pitcher throws with. He has better power against lefties, but his batting average over his career, and even year over year, doesn't seem to fluctuate much whether he's facing LHP or RHP. And in the circumstance today, batting average seems like the most important stat, since 1 run in that circumstance is as good as 100, and most base hits are going to score a fast runner on second base with two outs.

So, I think Hinch made an entirely justifiable call. The batting average difference between 2-2 Papi and empty count Ramirez was about 80 to 100 points. Obviously, if Hinch knows that Feliz is going to throw Papi the exact same pitch he had already shown him on the first pitch of the at bat, he makes a different decision. But if it were Farrell, how much do you want him bringing, "oh, but it's that guy" type of thinking into a situation like that? I'm really torn. Maybe Papi is a special case. I was shocked they threw him a strike. But in the long run, I can also see an argument that says a manager who is willing to ignore the conventional and play the better percentages is the one I want.
 

Bunt4aTriple

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So even if he opted to play another year or two, there's no guarantee he gets to 600 HR. Therefore, if he does go out with a monster year, is that better for his HOF chances than 550 Hrs?
 

Hagios

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So even if he opted to play another year or two, there's no guarantee he gets to 600 HR. Therefore, if he does go out with a monster year, is that better for his HOF chances than 550 Hrs?
I think hanging around will help his chances. People like counting stats, particularly for power hitters. There was a point when the conventional wisdom that was Ortiz would never make the HoF because his career started so late. I thought he was done back in 2009.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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So even if he opted to play another year or two, there's no guarantee he gets to 600 HR. Therefore, if he does go out with a monster year, is that better for his HOF chances than 550 Hrs?
If he isn't a lock with 500+ HR's, 600+ doubles and all the walk off hits and great postseason moments then they should close the damn HOF down.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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So, the walk off discussion raises a question what we think about Hinch's decision to pitch to Papi once Xander was in scoring position. How much do you let clutch reputation affect your decisions?

Just looking at the numbers, the primary question seems to be whether the advantage of having a two-strike count on a left-handed batter outweighs the advantage that your right-handed pitcher would have against the right-handed batter in the on-deck circle.

Just looking at the numbers, Hinch's decision was justifiable. Papi on 2-2 is a career .201 hitter. I can't find splits that show batting average against a RHP by count, but since about 70 percent of Papi's at bats are against RHP, his 2-2 batting average probably doesn't go up too much. His full count batting average jumps up to .253, so if he works the count full, Hinch has a second decision to make whether to put him on. But my question is whether you pitch to him 2-2.

What about Hanley? Hanley doesn't seem to care much which arm the pitcher throws with. He has better power against lefties, but his batting average over his career, and even year over year, doesn't seem to fluctuate much whether he's facing LHP or RHP. And in the circumstance today, batting average seems like the most important stat, since 1 run in that circumstance is as good as 100, and most base hits are going to score a fast runner on second base with two outs.

So, I think Hinch made an entirely justifiable call. The batting average difference between 2-2 Papi and empty count Ramirez was about 80 to 100 points. Obviously, if Hinch knows that Feliz is going to throw Papi the exact same pitch he had already shown him on the first pitch of the at bat, he makes a different decision. But if it were Farrell, how much do you want him bringing, "oh, but it's that guy" type of thinking into a situation like that? I'm really torn. Maybe Papi is a special case. I was shocked they threw him a strike. But in the long run, I can also see an argument that says a manager who is willing to ignore the conventional and play the better percentages is the one I want.
Well, in the gamethread E5 posted a quote from Hinch that says that Feliz mis-executed a pitch. Unless Hinch is throwing his pitcher under the bus, they fully intended to walk him by throwing two balls outside the zone.
 
Dec 21, 2015
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More fun facts about today's walk-off greatness (some of which got brief mention in the gamethread):

- Ortiz was a single short of the cycle. HR, 3B, 2B in consecutive ABs. I ain't never seen that before.
- Once Papi started walking off the field, the Fenway PA started playing the theme song from "The Natural" (before going into Dirty Water shortly thereafter)
- When they dumped the gatorade on him before his postgame interview, he stayed smiling throughout, but the interview lady had an incredible gross-out face. Jump to 16:50 on the condensed game for a nice slow-mo, which also makes for a pretty good Vine (albeit cut off).
- Ortiz had never faced Michael Feliz before, but Feliz entered the game with 20 Ks in 13.1 IP.
 
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Papelbon's Poutine

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Considering she was wearing a white dress, I'm not sure id give too much shit to the "interview lady" for getting a bucket of Gatorade dumped on her. Probably didn't think she was headed for spring break in Tijuana when she got dressed this morning.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Well, in the gamethread E5 posted a quote from Hinch that says that Feliz mis-executed a pitch. Unless Hinch is throwing his pitcher under the bus, they fully intended to walk him by throwing two balls outside the zone.
He's kind of throwing him under the bus either way. But if he's telling the truth it's the worst of both worlds. The chances of being able to execute a pitch that has no chance of being hit but that induces a swing seems about the same or worse than trying such a pitch and throwing it to the backstop or missing and making it hittable.

I actually think Hinch is full of shit. He didn't even visit the mound. If he didn't put out four fingers the pitcher and catcher probably thought their job was to try to get the out. Feliz seemed to throw right to the target. So his suggestion that Castro and Feliz missed some magic hand signal that said throw one out of the zone but don't IBB him seems questionable.

Might be a manager with an underperforming team not wanting to say "yeah it was a rock and a hard place but I thought the chances were a little better because there were two strikes." Whatever Hinch's actual intent, I still think it's an interesting question.
 

joyofsox

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I've been keeping track of his walkoff opportunities throughout his Red Sox career and I count 20, which includes the postseason:

2003: July 26, September 23
2004: April 11, June 11, October 8, October 17, October 18
2005: June 2, September 6, September 29
2006: June 11, June 24, June 26, July 29, July 31
2007: September 12
2009: August 26
2010: July 31
2013: June 6
2016: May 14

Some lists may include only regular season (but also include what he did with the Twins).
 

The Gray Eagle

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After the wild pitch, Castro went out to the mound to talk to Feliz. I believe Castro told him to not throw a pitch over the plate to Ortiz at that point.

They should have walked Ortiz at that point instead of trying to get cute and risking what happened.
 

SumnerH

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I've been keeping track of his walkoff opportunities throughout his Red Sox career and I count 20, which includes the postseason:

2003: July 26, September 23
2004: April 11, June 11, October 8, October 17, October 18
2005: June 2, September 6, September 29
2006: June 11, June 24, June 26, July 29, July 31
2007: September 12
2009: August 26
2010: July 31
2013: June 6
2016: May 14

Some lists may include only regular season (but also include what he did with the Twins).
Yeah, my bad--the list I posted excluded the postseason. It's 23 including the Twins and postseason.

4 Apr 2000, Bottom 9, tie game, Ortiz singles in a runner from 2nd:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200004040.shtml
31 Jul 2002 Bottom 10, tie game, bases jacked, Ortiz singles in a run:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200207310.shtml
25 Sep 2002 Bottom 12, tie game, Torii Hunter on 1st, Ortiz blasts a HR:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200209250.shtml
 

Lose Remerswaal

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A: Farrell knew to walk Altuve, Hinch didn't know to walk Ortiz. Nothing is gained by unintentionally-intentionally walking Papi over a traditional stand up and obviously walk him.

B: Guerin Austin (the interviewer) should know better than to be wearing white before Memorial Day

C: Ortiz needs to retire to become the Celtics' outside scoring "big" for the 2016-2017 season.
 

scotian1

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I was at Fenway several years ago when some of the faithful were even booing David so we know people have short memories and really give validity to the statement; "What have you done for me lately?" So I think David is best served by going out on top and let people yearn for what they are missing.
 

reggiecleveland

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Remy has spoken about how hard the off seasons are on David. His knees bug him a lot and each workout is an ordeal to get loose, and he puts in long hours. He loves the games, the competition, but getting his body ready, the travel, etc, have reached a limit for him.
 

nvalvo

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After the wild pitch, Castro went out to the mound to talk to Feliz. I believe Castro told him to not throw a pitch over the plate to Ortiz at that point.

They should have walked Ortiz at that point instead of trying to get cute and risking what happened.
It was a pretty decent pitch, too, not a mistake at all. A two-seamer on the black that he just hit the stuffing out of.
 

smastroyin

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Just go back and read the threads around here whenever he talked about money or slumped in the spring. Plenty of "he's done" "he's selfish" "the Red Sox would be better off without him anyway" that's not the same as booing but people's memories are short.
 

scotian1

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All in all, Ortiz has been a tremendous bargain for the Red Sox. Many on the Red Sox were/are receiving much more for doing far less. He doesn't owe we fans anything, we have received enough joy from his efforts already to last a lifetime. Leave on your terms David, I will enjoy every last at bat no matter the result.
 

Erik Hanson's Hook

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Probably a dumb "calm eyes" question but...

How much does David's build contribute to his sustained success? He's got one of those lumberjack bodies. Physics-wise, if your pitch recognition is there, does his lower center of gravity contribute to his torque, and thereby getting around on pitches and negating any loss in bat speed? If you can get turn your ass quick enough and get into the ball, is that a skill that declines slowly? Even at 40?

He is the quintessential barrel-chested, Ruthian slugger. I wonder if his body-type is actually prolonging his career, rather than the opposite.

What he's doing this year is truly amazing.

Edit: I think that people who are saying he's juicing are totally off-base. Speaking as someone who has experience with 'roids...he doesn't have the body type. I think his success is due to pitch recognition, quick hands, and a low, natural center of gravity.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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Well, I mean, he did reallllllly suck for a while then.
The funny part is that he really only sucked for the first month of 2008 and the first two months of 2009. Even at his worst, in 2009, his first-half OPS+ was 95 and his full-season OPS+ was 102. Our expectations of Papi are rightly so high that when he is just an ordinary hitter, we react as if he were having a Jackie Bradley 2014 season.
 

AB in DC

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http://www.hardballtimes.com/10-things-i-didnt-know-about-game-ending-hits/ has the list; at the time Ortiz had 18, and I believe his only 2 game-enders since then are today and the 3-run blast in this game against the Rangers (June 6, 2013):
OK, here's something weird. One of the comments in that article links to a Beyond the Box Score post with some other walk-off stats. One of the comments on that page -- dated August 7, 2009 -- joked about walk-off unassisted triple plays in the top of the ninth.

Exactly 16 days later, this happened.
 

TFisNEXT

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The funny part is that he really only sucked for the first month of 2008 and the first two months of 2009. Even at his worst, in 2009, his first-half OPS+ was 95 and his full-season OPS+ was 102. Our expectations of Papi are rightly so high that when he is just an ordinary hitter, we react as if he were having a Jackie Bradley 2014 season.
He was awful to start 2010 too. I think for many folks who were hoping 2009 was just a down season, the first month of 2010 convinced them it was just the first act in a downward spiral when he hit for a 5/24 OPS that month with 1 HR. Then he turned it around in May and has really never looked back.
 

JimBoSox9

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The funny part is that he really only sucked for the first month of 2008 and the first two months of 2009. Even at his worst, in 2009, his first-half OPS+ was 95 and his full-season OPS+ was 102. Our expectations of Papi are rightly so high that when he is just an ordinary hitter, we react as if he were having a Jackie Bradley 2014 season.
This feels a little bit revisionist, that 95 OPS+ really sugar-coats it. Through May 31 Ortiz was sitting at .185/.284/.287 with nearly a 25% K rate, and looked as cooked as anyone ever looked cooked. He couldn't catch up with an inside fastball if there was a million-dollar spot bonus riding on it. He was D-U-N. I wouldn't believe what happened starting in June 2009 if I hadn't been watching it happen myself.
 

rodderick

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This feels a little bit revisionist, that 95 OPS+ really sugar-coats it. Through May 31 Ortiz was sitting at .185/.284/.287 with nearly a 25% K rate, and looked as cooked as anyone ever looked cooked. He couldn't catch up with an inside fastball if there was a million-dollar spot bonus riding on it. He was D-U-N. I wouldn't believe what happened starting in June 2009 if I hadn't been watching it happen myself.
He had an awful start to 2010 as well, he was slashing .143/.238/.286 in April. I can remember calls for Jeremy Hermida to get some starts at DH and that didn't sound like a terrible idea at the time.

Of course, getting frustrated at those results as a fan is completely normal, but you don't boo or curse a guy like David Ortiz.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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This feels a little bit revisionist, that 95 OPS+ really sugar-coats it. Through May 31 Ortiz was sitting at .185/.284/.287 with nearly a 25% K rate, and looked as cooked as anyone ever looked cooked. He couldn't catch up with an inside fastball if there was a million-dollar spot bonus riding on it. He was D-U-N. I wouldn't believe what happened starting in June 2009 if I hadn't been watching it happen myself.
Ortiz got plunked on the wrist in 2008 in the Manny 500th HR game in Baltimore. That affected him to start 2009.
 

TFisNEXT

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I think Ortiz evolved somewhat as a hitter after his 2010 comeback. Even during 2010 as his power returned a bit (prob due to his wrist being fully healed), his K rate continued to climb to a whopping 23.9% suggesting there was still a problem going forward.

He completely reversed that in dramatic fashion in 2011 to post the lowest K rate of his career and all his years since that season have had K rates below most of his pre-2011 seasons, including his incredible 2003-2006 years. His 2007 K rate of 15.4% was slightly below last year's 15.5%. I'm not sure what Ortiz did to reverse his K rate trend so much, but it obviously has helped him prolong his status as an elite hitter in the league. He seems to be a much more intelligent hitter now than back in his 40+ HR days. At least that is what you gather from him when he discusses hitting, often referring to how a pitcher previously got him out and he then would look for that same pitch again years later.
 

Bergs

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This feels a little bit revisionist, that 95 OPS+ really sugar-coats it. Through May 31 Ortiz was sitting at .185/.284/.287 with nearly a 25% K rate, and looked as cooked as anyone ever looked cooked. He couldn't catch up with an inside fastball if there was a million-dollar spot bonus riding on it. He was D-U-N. I wouldn't believe what happened starting in June 2009 if I hadn't been watching it happen myself.
Well said. "Corpse of David Ortiz" jokes were flying around, and he absolutely looked done. What he has done since is amazing.
 

smastroyin

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Just for ha-ha's, here is David Ortiz OPS by month as a Red Sox with the following caveats:
- Only months with more than 50 PA
- March and October rolled into April and September
- Unadjusted OPS only given. This is just for ease.

This is not meant as a rigorous anything. I know how to do statistics quite well and this is not much of anything other than something interesting.

I didn't relabel with the dates, but the spike at observation 30 is September of 2007. Using dates (e.g. in Excel) makes the graph want to interpolate all of the "missing" (AKA offseason) data.

This is a run chart, the mean OPS given is 950 because it is the average of the points. It is not David's actual lifetime OPS with the Red Sox. This is because some months have more PA than others, and some months are omitted. Bottom graph is the change from month to month (absolute value).

Ortiz.jpg

Ortiz was consistently excellent from 2003-2007. Yes there are a couple of minor dives into the 800 OPS range but pretty much he was solid. Of course there is the big dropoff in 08 and 09 into 2010 (observations 31-41) and more variability month to month since then.
 

O Captain! My Captain!

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I think Ortiz evolved somewhat as a hitter after his 2010 comeback. Even during 2010 as his power returned a bit (prob due to his wrist being fully healed), his K rate continued to climb to a whopping 23.9% suggesting there was still a problem going forward.

He completely reversed that in dramatic fashion in 2011 to post the lowest K rate of his career and all his years since that season have had K rates below most of his pre-2011 seasons, including his incredible 2003-2006 years. His 2007 K rate of 15.4% was slightly below last year's 15.5%. I'm not sure what Ortiz did to reverse his K rate trend so much, but it obviously has helped him prolong his status as an elite hitter in the league. He seems to be a much more intelligent hitter now than back in his 40+ HR days. At least that is what you gather from him when he discusses hitting, often referring to how a pitcher previously got him out and he then would look for that same pitch again years later.
Ortiz went the other way more starting in 2011, which many attributed to the influence of noted opposite field approach guy Adrian Gonzalez.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Ortiz was consistently excellent from 2003-2007. Yes there are a couple of minor dives into the 800 OPS range but pretty much he was solid. Of course there is the big dropoff in 08 and 09 into 2010 (observations 31-41) and more variability month to month since then.
And even in the post-2007 period, he has had a total of five bad months out of 45, and only once had two bad months in a row.
 

soxhop411

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You should ALL read this David Ortiz story by Jeff Passan
Earlier this week, after another age-defying night, David Ortiz received a text message from a friend: “Man, you’re [expletive] your retirement up!” Ortiz laughed, because what else could he do? He is 40 years old. For the first six weeks of what he said would be his last season, he was the best hitter in baseball. That’s what everyone knew. They didn’t understand that it hurts Ortiz just to walk. And the energy it takes to steel his mind against his own second-guessing, let alone others’. And here was a friend – a Yankees fan no less – telling Ortiz not to go, not yet.
There’s a magnetism about Ortiz, one that developed in 2003 and grew more ferrous by the year. He is outsized and beloved for it. He doesn’t talk; he thunders. He doesn’t hit; he wallops. He is Boston’s and the Dominican Republic’s and the world’s, and as much as the prospect of baseball without Big Papi feels like a donut without coffee to dunk it in, the reality of it is magnified by what he’s doing. It’s like Kobe putting up 60, only every night.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-david-ortiz-still-plans-on-retiring-despite-his-amazing-start-165826455-mlb.html

It is May 18, and Ortiz is hitting .311/.395/.674 with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs. His 1.069 OPS leads baseball. He’s slugging at a higher clip than Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, getting on base more thanManny Machado and Nolan Arenado, walking off games as though it’s October 2004 all over again. Guys doing that don’t euthanize their own careers.

“I’m good with the decision that I’m making because I’ve been thinking about it for a while,” Ortiz told Yahoo Sports on Tuesday. “It’s been a couple years. Because your body, man. Your body tells you. My body, man. My body’s pretty beat up. Remember, if you look at guys my size, they don’t last. I noticed that seven or eight years ago. That’s why I needed to start doing things right. I lost 25 pounds. I started eating better, do things better. But let me tell you: It’s not easy, man.”

He pointed toward the trainer’s room.

“That’s every day,” he said. “I used to love those days when I didn’t have to go. And then the traveling – we don’t catch a break. We travel at night pretty much every getaway day. That’s hard for me. I feel like [expletive] the next day. When you’re younger, you get away with it. When you’re 40, not so much.”

Ortiz looked down and shook his head. His feet feel like giant stones with cracks fissuring through them. The rest of his body works well enough, responds to treatment. His feet, though. They’re why he’s retiring. They’re what vex him.

“My mind tells me some days, ‘Man, I don’t feel like doing [expletive],’ ” Ortiz said. “But I know I need to do [expletive] if I’m going to play, going to compete. So what do I do? I work. And those are my best days, because once I get into the mojo of working out, doing my thing, my body starts feeling better, and that day is a plus instead of being a minus.

“All people talk about is age, age, age, age. Bro, listen. I’m a better hitter now than what I was [expletive] 10 years ago. You know why? Because now I set pitchers up. My mind doesn’t get any confusion. I used to get confused. I’m gonna sit on a slider. Fastball. Boom! Oh, [expletive]. Why’d I take that fastball? My whole program I used to change because of that pitch. Now, I decide I’m gonna sit on a slider. Fastball. I don’t care. Fastball. I don’t care. Breaking ball. I don’t care. Changeup. I don’t care. Slider. Here it is.”
Much more at the link

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-david-ortiz-still-plans-on-retiring-despite-his-amazing-start-165826455-mlb.html