DeAndre Hopkins signs with TEN
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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What playoff contenders actually needed help at WR? KC and Buff, right? They also didn't have the space for this deal.
Hopkins is still very good, by both statical peripherals (2022 per game basis, WR with at least 40 snaps per game: Trg Share WR6, TPPR WR6, YPPR WR13, Tm AirYrd WR5) and by people that measure WRs:
View: https://twitter.com/4for4_John/status/1663597759507857409?t=5B9kkqmBdZVxX-9gchtdHw&s=19
Pats definitely focused on defense in the draft and offense seemed to be an afterthought. I don't know if that means they don't believe that Mac is the answer, or if they want him to "prove it" before they seriously invest in the offense around him (and him?), but the best skill player on the offense in '22 was their RB, and right now their best skill player is still their RB.
Hopkins is still very good, by both statical peripherals (2022 per game basis, WR with at least 40 snaps per game: Trg Share WR6, TPPR WR6, YPPR WR13, Tm AirYrd WR5) and by people that measure WRs:
View: https://twitter.com/4for4_John/status/1663597759507857409?t=5B9kkqmBdZVxX-9gchtdHw&s=19
Pats definitely focused on defense in the draft and offense seemed to be an afterthought. I don't know if that means they don't believe that Mac is the answer, or if they want him to "prove it" before they seriously invest in the offense around him (and him?), but the best skill player on the offense in '22 was their RB, and right now their best skill player is still their RB.
I agree with some others about there being some extra value adding an above average WR to eval Mac this year. I'm not too high on Hopkins but he would have certainly improved that WR room. Oh well.
Money seems semi-reasonable but also think it's possible we were in that ballpark. Players can only pick 1 offer so it doesn't automatically mean we were "outbid" maybe we were just "same/similar bid".
Tenn isn't a great option but unfortunately neither is NE right now.
Money seems semi-reasonable but also think it's possible we were in that ballpark. Players can only pick 1 offer so it doesn't automatically mean we were "outbid" maybe we were just "same/similar bid".
Tenn isn't a great option but unfortunately neither is NE right now.
Honestly if you're Hopkins and the money isn't better, NE just isn't as attractive I would guess.
Tougher road to the playoffs, tougher road to a big personal season given NE faces 6 division games against good teams with good CBs, also Tannehill is the much more proven QB, etc.
Yeah unfortunately prevailing thought is we are offering a last place team with a bottom 10 QB and a tough schedule.
We can hope the season goes better than that, but not likely to find people taking a discount or even same money to play here this year.
If Hopkins ended up here it was either going to be a desperation overpay or because no other teams had any interest.
Trying to beat Shula, obviously. Which is funny because I think Andy Reid is looking at that record himself with Mahomes at his disposal.
Which he probably gets in the next 6 years if Mahomes stays healthy and they average 14 wins a year
Something people aren't mentioning in the whole Shula debate is that yes, Bill is currently 18 wins behind, but that's including postseason. If that record means so much to him, wouldn't he also want the regular season one (and he's about 30 behind)? When Favre broke Elway's win record and then Brady broke Favre's, it was the regular season number that mattered.
Put simply, it’s $2.3 million on the guaranteed portion. That’s real. You’re talking 9% tax rate vs. 0 on most of the value.
If Bill wants Shula's record (and the "experts" in the media are equally divided as to which record is more important), then there is certainly alignment between his goals, Kraft's goals, and what the fans want to see: winning. Draft cupboard was very bare when Brady left, so it was known to everyone that it was going to take time to rebuild.
Losing out on Hopkins was disappointing, but not entirely unexpected for all the reasons mentioned in this thread. At the same time, I wouldn't expect Bill to start issuing drastic overpays for a 31 y/o receiver, nor would we want him to do so. And the cash spend budget comes from the Krafts, so even Bill has constraints he has to work with.
Losing out on Hopkins was disappointing, but not entirely unexpected for all the reasons mentioned in this thread. At the same time, I wouldn't expect Bill to start issuing drastic overpays for a 31 y/o receiver, nor would we want him to do so. And the cash spend budget comes from the Krafts, so even Bill has constraints he has to work with.
I think it means that generally you can manipulate the cap, but cash spent is the actual money going to your actual payroll. And NE spends less in cash compared to other teams, than they do cap space, compared to other teams.
But on the flip side, cap space is real, the cap is real.
Ok, but I don’t see catching Shula as some kind of separate agenda that works against trying to put the best possible team on the field every year, with the resources available. The two would seem to go hand in hand. My guess is either they valued Hopkins at a certain cost, and didn’t think over-paying beyond that was in the best overall interest of the team. Or he just didn’t want to come here for whatever reason( history with O’Brian, thinks Tennessee is a more viable short term contender, etc.). I don’t see how the pursuit of Shula plays into it at all. Like most here though, I’m also disappointed. I think he would’ve been a very good addition to the offense.
He'll be a great target until he signs somewhere else. Then he's not really a WR1 anymore and not an elite talent and it's better that the Pats didn't spend the money. What an odd cycle.
People are insane. Hopkins would have been awesome for the Pats. He OPENS up space for everyone else and catches everything within a 500 foot radius. Unfortunately he will do this in Tenn, not NE.
It’s all good. We have a WR room of zero guys who scare defenses and a QB who may or may not be any good. At some point, this team needs to find an impact pass catcher and I have little confidence in their ability to do so.
Over several years (to account for bonus amortization) the only delta between cap spend and cash spend should be NLTBE bonuses, guys who aren't in the top 53, and then veteran minimum salaries no?
Hopkins is one of my favorite WRs, his body control and catch radius are incredible. He would have absolutely made a difference this year. Recent injury history and age would absolutely give me pause as a GM.
If Hopkins signing elsewhere means we have a better shot at Cook then I’m ok with it though. Cook and Rhamondre would be the best RB tandem in the league. Of course, just like signing a star WR, th oline has to show up…
DHop was never signing here. He doesn’t like BOB, he doesn’t like cold weather, Tennessee is in a much weaker division and then we went and porked him…
First Julio then Hopkins. What the hell Vrabel?
If Hopkins signing elsewhere means we have a better shot at Cook then I’m ok with it though. Cook and Rhamondre would be the best RB tandem in the league. Of course, just like signing a star WR, th oline has to show up…
DHop was never signing here. He doesn’t like BOB, he doesn’t like cold weather, Tennessee is in a much weaker division and then we went and porked him…
First Julio then Hopkins. What the hell Vrabel?
I dont see any scenario where the Patriots sign Cook, and honestly, I don't know that Cook fundamentally changes the ceiling of this team as much as a high end WR1 would have.
The Pats have spent to the cap number in cash and pro-rated salaries over the length of BB's tenure. The cash spend is more variable year to year, but averages out to spending to the cap over several years. It's impossible to avoid that with signing bonuses and incentives counted how they are.
Count me among those who did not seriously think he was going to sign here. I got the sense that he was entertaining it because he was entertaining all offers, but ultimately it was not like he was dying to play here. This team had (has?) so many problems offensively that DHop would have helped, but wasn't going to make them SB contenders or anything.
How did Julio work out for Tennessee? And for Tampa for that matter? You really start rolling the dice when WRs are over 30. The list of successful receivers at those ages is terribly short. There's a really good chance Hopkins gets hurt again and ends up with Julio Tennessee numbers.
I think the biggest reason he might not put up good numbers in Tennessee is because (a) they run a ton with Henry, and (b) they don't have a good QB. (yet...maybe someday he will be; he certainly has talent)
View: https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1680663299225169921
Fowler: Patriots "base financial package wasn’t in the same ballpark as what Titans offered."
I'm a little torn. I think Hopkins' contract is pretty reasonable but can understand team wanting more incentives and less base salary for a plus 30 year old WR.
Fowler: Patriots "base financial package wasn’t in the same ballpark as what Titans offered."
I'm a little torn. I think Hopkins' contract is pretty reasonable but can understand team wanting more incentives and less base salary for a plus 30 year old WR.
There's no excuse for not being in the ballpark of that deal, though, if it's indeed true their offer wasn't close. It's yet another indication their valuation of the position hasn't kept up with the times. These guys aren't fungible.
While in a vacuum I understand not signing the player at that price, I would question the "drastic overpay" phrasing. The market dictated what Hopkins could get, despite what Bill *perceives* as a drastic overpay. Frankly I would rather have Hopkins at the deal he got than Smith-Schuster at his deal, due to the volatility of the latter's production. Who is more subject to a slump this season, a receiver coming off a resurgence with Mahomes but going to Mac this season; or a receiver who has put up consistently high rate stats in his career between various passers whether it be Hoyer/Mallett, Watson, or Murray throwing him the football? And being one year further removed from MCL surgery, maybe I am more bullish on his health than most.
There is no singular move that will fix everything but this team is short on offensive talent so I don’t really understand why they weren’t more aggressive here given the near term cap space and the need.
Parker, JuJu, Bourne, and Thornton is a decent group but that’s all it is…decent. I guess a guy like Boutte now has a better shot at contributing.
Maybe but my sense going into last year was that BB felt there was enough talent at WR to not need some guy to "take the top off of the defense" or "draw double coverage." Obviously, the Patricia/Judge clusterfuck made that point kind of moot. But I still wonder whether he thinks "the times" overvalue the need for top end talent at WR, assuming you have a QB who can make the right reads and an OL that can protect him (two things said Patricia/Judge clusterfuck complicated). Plus, you have Gesicki who, based on what I'm hearing at least, is at least poised to be an important piece for them to run their 2-TE sets.
All of which is to say: I don't disagree that Belichick is going against the grain with how he's building this offense. But it seems less of an "old man yells at clouds"/out of touch thing to me by refusing to pay big dollars to DHop than a conscious choice to invest in depth over high end expensive talent. Assuming BOB is on-board, that suggests to me that he believes this is a viable path to a high functioning offense as well.
If Bill believes all that it just proves my point: he still thinks of the position in terms of fungible archetypes. It's the same basis of the "why trade up to get Julio Jones when you can stand pat and draft the same player in Jonathan Baldwin?" advice he gave Thomas Dimitroff and it apparently still rings true for him. He probably doesn't think there's significant difference between Parker and Hopkins, since they have similar skillsets and athletic builds.
Here are some details from Breer...https://sports.yahoo.com/breer-patriots-offer-deandre-hopkins-125952718.html
This is a "we have a 32 year old Tom Brady for you to catch balls from!" type of offer.
The Pats seem to have taken the approach KC did to Hopkins, but the differences are that KC has Mahomes and Kelce, two players the Pats obviously have nobody like, so they can afford to be more discriminating in their other skill player investments, and the Pats have more cap flexibility than KC.
Thing for me is that we have, barring injury, a pretty good idea about what Parker, JuJu, and Bourne bring to the table. These are 3 productive NFL WRs. But none of them will cause DCs to lose any sleep. Neither will our TEs who, like the WRs, are decent players. I just think that when your competition is Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Lamar, Rodgers, etc., you need to find ways to get closer to them in offensive talent. Our QB is Mac Jones so we’re already a step behind. And our skill position pass catchers are too. I love Rhamondre but the dude needs help. And so does Mac.
We’ll throw $31M guaranteed at Jonnu Smith but draw a line in the sand on DeAndre Hopkins. I guess we’ll have to see how this plays out but, right now, it’s hard to get too excited about this group of pass catchers.
This group of pass catchers would be awesome if they still had prime Tom Brady here. Like, legitimately awesome. But they don't. They have 3rd year Mac Jones. Totally different scenario.
But let's see how it goes. I think they're a solid group. Unspectacular, but solid. The key, obviously, will be Mac. But the key to Mac will be (a) the offensive line, and (b) the coaching. So I'm banking a LOT on O'Brien and Klemm.
But let's see how it goes. I think they're a solid group. Unspectacular, but solid. The key, obviously, will be Mac. But the key to Mac will be (a) the offensive line, and (b) the coaching. So I'm banking a LOT on O'Brien and Klemm.
If the OL sucks, it really doesn't matter if we have prime Rice and Moss at WR. I'm still concerned about this.
That said, I'm also disappointed at what Hopkins signed for. We should have been in on him at that price.
There is no delta at all.
Those things you mentioned aren't accounted for in the offseason, but once they are actually paid they go on to the cap.
The cash/cap spending thing is a Felger Nation illusion.
Every dollar in cash you spend goes on your cap.
The teams that are high in cash spending just have borrowed more against future seasons, usually by paying big signing bonuses.
For example the Patriots were the #2 cash spending team in 2021, because they doled out a bunch of big signing bonuses in free agency to borrow against future seasons.
In 2022 they were 22nd, because they were basically paying back some of what they borrowed in 2021.
It’s almost impossible for a team that’s one year removed from a #1 seed and had a win-and-in game last season to blow it up, but the Titans are headed in the wrong direction. Even if they get peak Hopkins, I like Jacksonville to win that division.
You could make a similar argument about New England — peak Hop wouldn’t make us division favorites either. With Mac on a rookie deal, however, and with a decision looming after the season on his 5th-year option, I would’ve liked to have seen the Pats match the money the Titans’ offered.
You could make a similar argument about New England — peak Hop wouldn’t make us division favorites either. With Mac on a rookie deal, however, and with a decision looming after the season on his 5th-year option, I would’ve liked to have seen the Pats match the money the Titans’ offered.
Yes, but not every cap dollar actually gets spent.
This is always a fun quote:
"The aggregate of our spending in 2020, our spending in 2021, and our spending in 2022 was 27th in the league in cash spending," Belichick stated in a press conference. "In a couple of years we were low, while one year was high. "But, over a three-year period, we are one of the lowest spending teams in the league."
Well, yeah it's tough to land on the exact cap number because you can't be sure exactly how many guys are going to get hurt, or incentives will be met.
The Patriots ended last season with 1.1M in cap space.
So I guess they could've spent that last year in the final week if you wanted. Though it hasn't mattered for years since you can roll it over, which the Patriots have done every year.
That fun quote is again, fairly meaningless. It only shows the Patriots have borrowed less against their cap space for 2023 and the future years, because 2020 was a reset with Bradys big dead cap hit on the books, they spent big in 2021 then conserved in 2022.
But we're now in 2023. The Patriots have $17m in cap space, 10th most in the league, have $110m next year (#1 in the league in cap space) and no huge contracts that I can see to use it on. Mac Jones may get a 5th year option that won't kick in next year (I'm sure they can move some cap around somehow if they need to to eat some of the cap) They can resign Godchaux, extend players like Barmore and Stephenson, but there's massive amounts of cap room in the future they're not leveraging to make the 2023 team better, they don't have any stars that are going to demand huge cap hits (outside of Mac Jones if they decide, but he'd get $30+ million after the option which his a whole separate thread if he's actually worth it)
I wasn't a big Hopkins guy but at the price he got, I'd 100% want him. Spending in Free Agency on a bunch of guys, like we saw in 2021 is usually a fools errand. Spending big on guys like Gilmore in isolated situations make complete sense. What are they going to do with the huge cap money they have?
And why exactly are they conserving again? Isn't the young QB on a rookie deal this huge advantage in cap allotment that teams have used to put together contenders? Wasn't 2022 and 2023 precisely the time to keep making splashes before you either have to pay Mac or move on to start yet another rebuild with a different QB?
Just for reference, the Pats gave Agholor 2 years / $22M with $16M guaranteed. And that was 2 years ago in terms of cap escalation. Not paying Hopkins is bizarre to me, with the one caveat that if they thought he wasn't a program fit in terms of practice habits, I think I can understand that.
To me that has to be it. If they had signed him and then those practice issues that he is well known for arose... it would be a huge training camp or early season distraction. Bill doesn't like distractions. They need a good focused training camp.
I think it's quite possible that Belichick wasn't super impressed with Hopkins workout in Foxboro for whatever reason. The other explanation is that the Pats knew that they would have to top Tennessee's offer by 10-20% or even more to counteract the tax issue and the fact that New England wasn't necessarily his first choice, and Bill decided there was no point getting drawn into that negotiation. I just find those explanations more likely than Bill simply no longer being able to properly value wide receivers in today's game.