Defending the Defense in order to Defend

[Saints Rest]

These comments all were in the NYJets thread, so I figured it might be wise to have a thread about the Pats Defense to discuss that defense as they attempt to defend.

I don't - the run defense has looked awful shaky in the early going. The Pats are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, dead last in the NFL, and 147 rush yards per game, tied for fourth-worst. The pass D hasn't been a lot better, but at least they're getting sacks (11, 1st in the NFL) and picks (4, tied for 1st).

 
 

Their run defense will get better as the year goes on as I think BB will address this and bring in another run stuffing DT.  As far as I'm concerned, the Jets can't beat the Patriots on the ground.  The less somebody passes against this secondary, the better in my opinion.

 
 

I think you're unfairly down on a secondary which, "Badley" Fletcher aside, has been OK, and unreasonably up on an interior DL that's looked putrid so far and frankly doesn't have much proven talent. I mean, we all liked the Malcom Brown pick, but he's a lot less established than Tarell Brown is.
 
It's tough to beat anyone on the ground, but the Jets made a good go of it in Foxboro last year with 218 yards en route to 25 points in perhaps the defense's worst performance all season. That shortened the game, too, which is a danger for the superior team - a game where each team only gets eight or nine possessions and the Pats screw one or two up with a turnover or mistake is a recipe for an upset. The run D is less of an issue if the Pats get out in front (which has happened the last two weeks), but it could be a problem if they let a team hang around.

 
 

 
Do we know what Siliga's off-season surgery was?  He hasn't been great against the run or the double-team yet but my impression is that he was better at just this aspect of the game in years past?  Is there any reasonable expectation that he's going to get better.  Additionally, It is my impression that it's easier to find a one-dimensional run suffer to play in passing downs than it is to find a competent CB to play in nickel D -- perhaps that is off base.  They did just this with Siliga of all people two seasons ago where as fixing CB has required big moves.  I wonder if they're hoping Coleman can be the #3 come the end of the year.  
 
It also seems in the small sample size where I've been able to diagnose what went wrong on a running play that whenever there's been a big run it's been 
1) Nink/Jones not setting the edge -- this seems like an anomaly not likely to last, and if it does I expect Sheard to just get more playing time because he's been a beast against the run to my eye
or
2) Collins/Mayo hitting the wrong gap.  Clearly it's better if guys up front win their battles and there is no gap but I'm hoping this is just early season rust for the LBs.
 
Mayo has also looked slow/poor to me and my expectation is that he will get better.  Too bad Spikes hit the deer.
 
Having said all that, Kyed and Bruschi also expressed significant concern about the run game.  So, your point compounded by their agreement is duly noted.  Also agree about T. Brown > M. Brown.  My concern at secondary comes down to nickel corner and depth.
 

 
My sense of the Patriot D so far is that they are still figuring out who is doing what/where/when.  We heard, in a couple of memorable, and oft-repeated, speeches from Belichick to the D, how important it was for the "fellas" to "do our jobs."  I get the sense that his defensive tactics are all predicated on that fundamental principle.  When people start freelancing, lanes open up, edges aren't set, etc.  But there are a LOT of new faces on that D and they need to figure out not only what their own individual responsibilities are, but where the responsibilities of the persons next to them land.  Thus even smart, established, BB veterans like Nink are ending up out of the right spot.

The good news is that if my sense is correct, then those issues can be coached up and practiced into improvement.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

DVOA thinks our pass defense has been pretty good (9th) and our run defense has been putrid (31st, and at 16.6% a good 32% off the median or 16th ranked defense in the league).

 

[Saints Rest]

DVOA thinks our pass defense has been pretty good (9th) and our run defense has been putrid (31st, and at 16.6% a good 32% off the median or 16th ranked defense in the league).

Am I right in remembering that DVOA is pretty useless until after Week 4 due to SSS?
 
I'm not sure why, DFG I suppose, but I feel like I still don't have a good read on WHO are the newcomers on this defense.  I know we have a couple Brown's, some new DB's, and some new folks on the DL.   

 

[Bellhorn]

Am I right in remembering that DVOA is pretty useless until after Week 4 due to SSS?

 
Technically, it's still VOA at this point, as opponent adjustments have not started yet.  Not entirely useless information, as it is difficult to mentally adjust for down-and-distance context - but at this point, the VOA conclusions will usually agree squarely with the intuition of anyone who simply watched the games.

 

[Shelterdog]

Am I right in remembering that DVOA is pretty useless until after Week 4 due to SSS?
 
 

 
I'm still waiting for any firm evidence that DVOA is more predicative of a team's chances of winning than point differential of even win-loss. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

I wonder how much of this has to do with the system BB has been running. He's been running a lot of 4-2-5 and rarely has 3 LB on the field. We have some of the blitziest LB in the game, and if they shoot the wrong gap, there's little back help in the middle on the second level. Obviously, the first level in the middle has been less than stellar, which hasn't helped. Jones has played a lot on the inside, not exactly the guy you want if your goal is to stuff the middle. It should be interesting to see how Easley's return impacts the run D's numbers, if at all.
 
The other notable issue has been the end play, and in particular the enigma known as Nink. To my eyes, he has been terrible the first two games, and he's been on the field more than his play deserves. Sheard seems to be holding up, but there's always going to be one of Nink/Jones on the other end, and if you're a (smart) opposing offense that's the side the RB is going if the play is going outside the numbers. Nink is getting 91% of the snaps thus far, and Sheard 65%. That may start to shift in the other direction.
 
I haven't been paying attention as much, but I'm going to look for Chung's role more on TV this week. Harmon is actually starting to get some really significant snaps, but Chung's count remains high as well. I imagine BB has been keeping Chung in/close to the box quite often, but I'm interested to see where exactly he's lining up, though I assume it varies based on the gameplan; they played significantly more 3-safety sets against Pitt than Buffalo, for example.
 
I'm not in the worried department yet, by any means, especially where the secondary is concerned. Butler looks like the real deal, and I'm excited to see exactly how high he can go. He has the skillset to be a real star, I think. He is a complete ball-hawk (covering and tackling), what remains to be seen is his consistency. Brown seems to be a capable second CB and Ryan is what he is, whatever that is. Fletcher...well...let's just say it's a real shame that Roberts went down. I think he may have been starting week 1, and the depth chart and on-field results would look quite a bit different. Given the safety play and depth, I think the unit will be a strength, provided Brown and especially Butler remain healthy.
 
The run D I'm not worried about yet. It's early in the season, and BB is still rotating and evaluating personnel: Easley may make a difference, we'll see; Nink will see less playing time if he keeps struggling, although if he doesn't improve one edge is always going to be weak; and, Mayo is barely playing, and I have a feeling BB will find a way to get him on the field more and contribute as the season continues. Plus, even if the front 7 (front 6?) is struggling/failing to clog the line, it's at least doing its other job well in getting to the QB. In 2015, I will take that exchange if I must.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

I would expect the run defense to improve the more Mayo is ramped up snap count wise. I'm really excited about Malcolm Butler. He's shown great footwork, as we saw in the Super Bowl has great play recognition. Has great hands. He's obviously not Revis but I like where he is heading.