Draft value talk: Tulalip or Young MC.

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Broken out from the Easley release thread:

Biggest first round draft bust in the Belichick era?

I honestly think he falls into an odd category of draft picks that is bust proof. You know the risks of drafting a player with multiple major knee injuries. They took a calculated risk, it didn't pan out and that sucks, but it's hard for me to call that a bust.

 

[mikeford]

I honestly think he falls into an odd category of draft picks that is bust proof. You know the risks of drafting a player with multiple major knee injuries. They took a calculated risk, it didn't pan out and that sucks, but it's hard for me to call that a bust.

He's not on the team 2 years after he was drafted. I'd call that a bust.

 

[bakahump]

Not if Injuries destroyed him. Sometime they happen. (though I will agree he had a big Buyer Beware sign on him).

 

[Stitch01]

He's not on the team 2 years after he was drafted. I'd call that a bust.

Yeah, it was a high risk/high reward pick, but that's the first real 1st round bust of the BB era.

Almost has to be an off field shoe to drop here though.

 

[williams_482]

How do you define a bust if not "a player who wasn't worth their draft slot"?

That said, I don't see "drafting player A was a good idea at the time" and "player A busted" as being contradictory. Accurately predicting the NFL success of collegiate players is a near impossible task.

 

[dcmissle]

Good reading is the thread that has just been locked, and specifically the posting of Dr. Dave Roberts Shoes.

Probably shouldn't be taking major medical risks in the first round. Eyes wide open does not mean smart.

Cutting a 1st rounder after 2 years = bust.

 

[Shelterdog]

Good reading is the thread that has just been locked, and specifically the posting of Dr. Dave Roberts Shoes.

Probably shouldn't be taking major medical risks in the first round. Eyes wide open does not mean smart.

Cutting a 1st rounder after 2 years = bust.

There's a difference between a bust and a dumb pick. IMO a bust is a player who performs a lot worse than a player at that position in that general round of the draft normally does. Dom is absolutely a bust.

But smart or dumb depends on the analysis of the information at hand at the time and I can't see how you can make the flat declaration that major medical risks are by default dumb picks.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Sucks, but this was always a possibility with the pick and they were in a position to take such a risk. I'm really not all that upset at this point, though, because I wasn't expecting a full season from him ever and I'd rather have an average starter who can stay on the field on the roster. Oh well.

 

[bankshot1]

If the rule of thumb which says that a 1st round draft pick should yield 6-8+ years of high quality contributions is true, there is no way that Easley's selection is anything other than a bust.

Wiley Brown got bit by Dom's dog and Dom gets fired?
Damn, just need Dom's woman to leave town and we got a blues song.

 

[dcmissle]

There's a difference between a bust and a dumb pick. IMO a bust is a player who performs a lot worse than a player at that position in that general round of the draft normally does. Dom is absolutely a bust.

But smard or dumb depends on the analysis of the information at hand at the time and I can't see how you can make the flat declaration that major medical risks are by default dumb picks.

I qualified this, "in the first round?" First round.

At a position, by the way, at which there is no shortage of potential draftees, and no shortage of pros.

It's not like we are talking about a great QB prospect -- and nobody knows whether he can hold up and a third of the League does not even have a decent starter at the position.

One can define bust any way really. It was a fuck up.

Edit. Also, we had DRS sprinkled through that other thread on draft day with "noooooo ...s".

It is reasonable to assume pats brass were hearing the same from their people.

 

[pappymojo]

I will agree with calling him a bust, but in my mind the 29th pick might as well be a second round pick.

 

[BigJimEd]

Yeah, I'd agree he was a bust.
Also wouldn't be surprised if he's a good starter for some team next year. I thought he played well last year when healthy.
I think, as Curran suggested, there was more to this than just the injuries.

 

[dcmissle]

I will agree with calling him a bust, but in my mind the 29th pick might as well be a second round pick.

That's fair.

I just worry about slow erosion of top level talent, which can't be replaced in FA because of the cap and a fairly efficient market.

They will probably be fine in "16 with the strong offseason. But the year after, they should be entered the 4th season of Easley, or an Easley substitute and the second year of whoever they would have drafted in the first round later this month -- and they will have neither. And I agree with the observation above that you ought to get a solid 4 to 8 years from these guys.

While one situation has nothing to do with the other, cumulatively they weaken the team downstream. Probably significantly.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Every team in the league, and I mean every team, sometimes makes mistakes in the draft. But nobody running an NFL franchise right now understands the concept of sunk costs, and is more willing to make this kind of move, than BB. This is part of why he's the best. It sucks Easley didn't work out, for whatever reason, but they've reached the conclusion that he's not going to contribute to what they are trying to accomplish for whatever reason so they move on, like they always do.

As to the slow erosion of top talent, we are talking about a team that won a Super Bowl a year ago with one of the youngest rosters in the league, and started out last year looking like a great bet to repeat before injuries took their toll. I'll need some additional evidence before I start down that road.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Calling spikes a disappointing draft pick means you have completely unreasonable expectations of the draft. I enjoy following the draft but the NFL has really pumped in up as some magical cure all for every teams problems. Expectations for draft picks are generally wildly too high. Anything after the first round is a complete toss up

 

[dcmissle]

Every team in the league, and I mean every team, sometimes makes mistakes in the draft. But nobody running an NFL franchise right now understands the concept of sunk costs, and is more willing to make this kind of move, than BB. This is part of why he's the best. It sucks Easley didn't work out, for whatever reason, but they've reached the conclusion that he's not going to contribute to what they are trying to accomplish for whatever reason so they move on, like they always do.

As to the slow erosion of top talent, we are talking about a team that won a Super Bowl a year ago with one of the youngest rosters in the league, and started out last year looking like a great bet to repeat before injuries took their toll. I'll need some additional evidence before I start down that road.

I fully agree with your first paragraph, particularly the desireability of moving on from shit shows, which this team does better than anyone else. If a post upthread is right -- if it costs them more cap wise to cut him than keep him, a first round pick only half way through his first four-year deal -- moving on gives one a good measure of the magnitude of this disaster from the team's standpoint.

As for the second par, I'm referring to "17 and beyond, by which point we almost certainly are talking about a decline at QB. How steep and quick remains to be seen, but it's going to happen and it's going require others to up their games just to stay in the same place relative to other teams.


So yeah, losing 2 to 6 years of anticipated healthy contributions from Easley -- then losing 4 to 8 years from the first round pick lost this year -- hurts in my book.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Flunked drug test, car accident weirdness, 4 years a slave, sex tape. Spikes punched his ticket out of town twice. Maybe not a bust but not exactly a raging success for a second round pick.

That pitbull stuff with Easley is scary bad.

How many 2nd round picks end up starting let alone playing a big role on defense? Bill hit on the Spikes pick and yeah he also hit on the Scumbag Hernandez pick as well.

 

[pappymojo]

I fully agree with your first paragraph, particularly the desireability of moving on from shit shows, which this team does better than anyone else. If a post upthread is right -- if it costs them more cap wise to cut him than keep him, a first round pick only half way through his first four-year deal -- moving on gives one a good measure of the magnitude of this disaster from the team's standpoint.

As for the second par, I'm referring to "17 and beyond, by which point we almost certainly are talking about a decline at QB. How steep and quick remains to be seen, but it's going to happen and it's going require others to up their games just to stay in the same place relative to other teams.


So yeah, losing 2 to 6 years of anticipated healthy contributions from Easley -- then losing 4 to 8 years from the first round pick lost this year -- hurts in my book.

I am not disagreeing with anything you wrote but just trying to inject some positivity... The Patriots were very close to trading their 1st round pick away last year. Then Malcom Brown fell to them (thanks Colts!), and the Patriots pulled out of the trade.

Just pointing out that the Patriots have a 1st round pick on their team playing DT who is under his rookie contract for four more years and, if not for fate, the Patriots wouldn't have used that pick at all.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

How do you define a bust if not "a player who wasn't worth their draft slot"?

So every player drafted first overall in the draft is a bust if they don't end up being the best player selected in that draft? Or the best player in the league at their position? Those are some exacting standards.

As for the Volin article, which contains a shocking amount of actual reporting by his standards (but still puts the interesting stuff more than halfway down the article), the pit bull was the least of it:

Multiple league sources said Easley was unreliable and immature.

“He’ll make an appointment for a massage and not show up,” one source said. “He’s just very disrespectful and irresponsible.”

“I think he rubbed a lot of people the wrong way,” another source said. “He comes across as an entitled kid. He reneges on everything. He thinks he’s invincible.”

When it came to football, Easley played by his own rules, which didn’t go over well with Belichick and staff. He routinely ignored requests to rehab his injuries with the Patriots’ trainers, and instead did it on his own. Most players rehabbed their recent injuries in the Patriots’ facilities, but when Easley was placed on IR in 2014 and 2015, he immediately left the team and did his own thing. This past offseason he traveled to Germany to seek alternative treatments for his knee.

The Patriots grew so fed up with Easley during his rookie year that they placed him on IR in December and told him to stay away and rehab on his own until the offseason program began in April. When the Patriots were raising the Lombardi Trophy in Arizona, Easley was partying in Las Vegas.

The Patriots “never liked him from the get-go, and part of the problem was he would never listen to the medical advice,” one source said.

Definitely not the Foxboro template. But I think I hear Dan Snyder's music!

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I fully agree with your first paragraph, particularly the desireability of moving on from shit shows, which this team does better than anyone else. If a post upthread is right -- if it costs them more cap wise to cut him than keep him, a first round pick only half way through his first four-year deal -- moving on gives one a good measure of the magnitude of this disaster from the team's standpoint.

As for the second par, I'm referring to "17 and beyond, by which point we almost certainly are talking about a decline at QB. How steep and quick remains to be seen, but it's going to happen and it's going require others to up their games just to stay in the same place relative to other teams.


So yeah, losing 2 to 6 years of anticipated healthy contributions from Easley -- then losing 4 to 8 years from the first round pick lost this year -- hurts in my book.

I know this is your thing, and you have to be the canary in the coal mine at all times regarding the Pats, but I'll wait until it actually starts to happen before I start to moan about it.

Does signing Butler as a UDFA in the same class change the analysis? Missing on a first rounder sucks in terms of talent depletion, but signing a UDFA who turns into a legit #1 CB pretty much offsets that doesn't it?

 

[kelpapa]

I know this is your thing, and you have to be the canary in the coal mine at all times regarding the Pats, but I'll wait until it actually starts to happen before I start to moan about it.

Does signing Butler as a UDFA in the same class change the analysis? Missing on a first rounder sucks in terms of talent depletion, but signing a UDFA who turns into a legit #1 CB pretty much offsets that doesn't it?

He doesn't offset it because of the time and cost of the contract. The pats had Easley for four years at a discounted rate plus an option for the fifth year. That's not the same for an undrafted free agent.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

...And I agree with the observation above that you ought to get a solid 4 to 8 years from these guys.
.

A 'solid 4-8 years' is a ridiculously high bar to set for a late 1st round pick.

The average 29th pick has a CAV (Career Approximate Value) of 30. That's Lawrence Maroney. Getting a good starter for 4-8 years is a resounding success late in the first round.

 

[rodderick]

A 'solid 4-8 years' is a ridiculously high bar to set for a late 1st round pick.

The average 29th pick has a CAV (Career Approximate Value) of 30. That's Lawrence Maroney. Getting a good starter for 4-8 years is a resounding success late in the first round.

I thought we held Bill to a higher standard than the average NFL GM. I mean, the Pats pick around 29 pretty much every year, if all we can ask for is that the player they end up drafting is above the Laurence Maroney threshold, that's not exactly the recipe to building a winning team.

I don't think getting at the very least a solid player for the duration of his first contract is too much to ask at that spot, even if you're bound to miss on some guys.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

I was excited about drafting Easley (had him in mwownow's annual draft contest), but I recall thinking he was an ideal pick for the Pats in the second round. He wasn't mentioned as a first-round pick in many mock drafts, due to the injury concerns. And there was all the requisite eye-rolling at the Pats' reaching, followed by the reactive wave of "In Bill We Trust".

How can a first rounder who gets cut after two years, each of which was very injury-shortened, be considered anything but a bust? I can't even believe it's a conversation.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I thought we held Bill to a higher standard than the average NFL GM. I mean, the Pats pick around 29 pretty much every year, if all we can ask for is that the player they end up drafting is above the Laurence Maroney threshold, that's not exactly the recipe to building a winning team.

I don't think getting at the very least a solid player for the duration of his first contract is too much to ask at that spot, even if you're bound to miss on some guys.

Well, your last sentence kind of says it all. In his fifteen drafts, BB has only selected a guy later than the #20 (to go back even further than you're citing and be generous) eleven times, including years where's he did it twice. The record reads as:

Daniel Graham
Vince Wilfork
Ben Watson
Logan Mankins
Laurence Maroney
Brandon Merriweather
Devin McCourty
Chandler Jones
Dontae Hightower
Dominique Easley
Malcolm Brown

I'd say there's about five guys there that meet the threshold you want, but you could debate the TEs. If you want to extend a bit into early second round that is essentially the same as late first, you can add:

Eugene Wilson
Chad Jackson
Patrick Chung
Ras-I Dowling


So maybe Wilson?

I think the myth of BB the 'draft master' is both overblown and misconstrued. (I say this worshipping at his altar like the rest of us.) His track record falls in line with any other GM, it's just there's not many that have the longevity he has to compare to. He does a great job in later rounds finding hidden gems that fit his system or the Edelmans or Butlers, but other teams do that too. His genius is in moving around better than anyone and for a good stretch he had a knack of trading back to move up the following year, but that has abated.

Overall as a GM I think his strength is finding guys he can expand their roles and make into impact players in his scheme (Vrabel, Nink, Sheard, etc) but he has just as many misses as the next guy, which also seem to be more on the offensive side (though that statement probably needs more research).

 

[TheoShmeo]

Butler was an undrafted free agent. Tom Brady would have been a better example of a late round hit.

To me, Bill's genius in team building isn't any one thing. It's not his picks in any round or his draft trades. It's instead his mix of free agency (both veteran and undrafted guys), draft trades, draft picks in all rounds and sense of when to trade productive veterans and dump guys like Easley who have become a problem for whatever reason. Like everyone, he's going to have his misses. But it's the relentless effort at finding guys who will thrive in this system and contribute to a winning team which sets him apart, in my view. (And that Bill the GM has the best HC in the business.)

The thing that surprises me about Easley is that the Pats famously value guys for whom football is a passion and I thought that they interviewed them to ensure that they are the right kind of people for the Pats program. At least, they do that with the higher round picks and research everyone they take. I know from experience in my own line of work that the person you interview can fool you and I guess that's what happened here. That doesn't happen to Bill very often but, with a nod to the guys sitting in Walpole, this isn't the first time Bill missed on the character aspect of the investigation.

 

[BigJimEd]

Reiss has some notes on Easley including this from an ESPN story last year on UF.

“One coach on the staff said the 2010 class was the most unruly he has ever witnessed. Another player viewed by some as problematic was Dominique Easley, a five-star defensive lineman from New York who threatened to quit the team repeatedly, missing meetings as a result.”

That would certainly seem to go against Easley having a strong passion for the game and, if true, Belichick certainly would have been aware of these incidents.

 

[Stitch01]

I know this is your thing, and you have to be the canary in the coal mine at all times regarding the Pats, but I'll wait until it actually starts to happen before I start to moan about it.


Does signing Butler as a UDFA in the same class change the analysis? Missing on a first rounder sucks in terms of talent depletion, but signing a UDFA who turns into a legit #1 CB pretty much offsets that doesn't it?

Yeah, pretty much this. Busting on a first round pick is bad, and the '14 draft looks weak, but its one player and one draft and the '12/'13/'15 drafts look solid. Pats wont stay on top forever obviously, but Im not losing a lot of sleep over one bust.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I find it odd that they couldn't get a draft pick for him at least

 

[Stitch01]

Well, your last sentence kind of says it all. In his fifteen drafts, BB has only selected a guy later than the #20 (to go back even further than you're citing and be generous) eleven times, including years where's he did it twice. The record reads as:

Daniel Graham
Vince Wilfork
Ben Watson
Logan Mankins
Laurence Maroney
Brandon Merriweather
Devin McCourty
Chandler Jones
Dontae Hightower
Dominique Easley
Malcolm Brown

I'd say there's about five guys there that meet the threshold you want, but you could debate the TEs. If you want to extend a bit into early second round that is essentially the same as late first, you can add:

Eugene Wilson
Chad Jackson
Patrick Chung
Ras-I Dowling


So maybe Wilson?

I think the myth of BB the 'draft master' is both overblown and misconstrued. (I say this worshipping at his altar like the rest of us.) His track record falls in line with any other GM, it's just there's not many that have the longevity he has to compare to. He does a great job in later rounds finding hidden gems that fit his system or the Edelmans or Butlers, but other teams do that too. His genius is in moving around better than anyone and for a good stretch he had a knack of trading back to move up the following year, but that has abated.

Overall as a GM I think his strength is finding guys he can expand their roles and make into impact players in his scheme (Vrabel, Nink, Sheard, etc) but he has just as many misses as the next guy, which also seem to be more on the offensive side (though that statement probably needs more research).

I think there is a decent argument that picking players is close to a crapshoot, or at least very heavily reliant on luck. The Pats strengths in drafting have been heavily related, IMO, to BB's job security, which has allowed him to accrue value without having to worry that if he doesn't win next year he's being fired (teams have gotten smarter about this, so trading back is harder) and allows the team to at least have some idea what system they are going to be running so they don't burn assets by switching coaches/systems a year or two into a players career. I don't think BB is much worse or better than anyone else about actually picking players with the caveat that the 1st round draft record, even with the Easley bust out, is really good.

 

[dcmissle]

I know this is your thing, and you have to be the canary in the coal mine at all times regarding the Pats, but I'll wait until it actually starts to happen before I start to moan about it.

Does signing Butler as a UDFA in the same class change the analysis? Missing on a first rounder sucks in terms of talent depletion, but signing a UDFA who turns into a legit #1 CB pretty much offsets that doesn't it?

Yeah, I tend to look for cracks in the foundation while enjoying the team.

And yeah, Butler impacts the analysis a good amount in my view. It is reasonable to assume UDFA making your team and contributing. But Butler is well above and beyond what any fan can reasonably expect.

 

[williams_482]

I think there is a decent argument that picking players is close to a crapshoot, or at least very heavily reliant on luck. The Pats strengths in drafting have been heavily related, IMO, to BB's job security, which has allowed him to accrue value without having to worry that if he doesn't win next year he's being fired (teams have gotten smarter about this, so trading back is harder) and allows the team to at least have some idea what system they are going to be running so they don't burn assets by switching coaches/systems a year or two into a players career. I don't think BB is much worse or better than anyone else about actually picking players with the caveat that the 1st round draft record, even with the Easley bust out, is really good.

I would add to those two points that BB seems to understand the inherent uncertainty better than other coaches/GMs, and maximizes his odds of getting a few late round gems by making a lot of late round picks. Belichick didn't really expect Eddleman to turn into the guy he is today, or he wouldn't have taken nobodies like George Bussey or Jake Ingram ahead of him. Instead, Eddleman was just one of the many potentially useful flyers who happened to work out.

 

[wutang112878]

"Bust" is really a vague, subjective term. Obviously there is risk with any guy and you have expectations based on the draft slot, but stepping back a bit Bill just doesnt miss on his 1st rounders and has to be considered one of the best at drafting 1st rounders in the league during his time as a GM so I really have a difficult time faulting him for this one.

With Easley, Bill accepted a huge injury risk because of Easley's ceiling. I've always thought he just couldnt pass up the ceiling because it was just so incredibly rare for him to have a chance to draft a player with that high of a ceiling when he makes his 1st pick in the 20+ range. So if there were no off the field issues on the table, I think his risk/reward analysis was probably logical. Whats shocking to me is the off the field stuff that is now coming to light. What I'd be very curious to know is if the Patriots were aware of this beforehand and still thought the risk was justified or if they missed it. I'm really surprised that they either accepted the off the field stuff or missed it because 'culture fit' seems like one of Bill's highest priorities in his draft analysis.

 

[Shelterdog]

Yeah, I tend to look for cracks in the foundation while enjoying the team.

I'm not sure foundation is the right way to think about your non QB talent level--it's one of those your foundation is an ever shifting ground deals because contracts are short, players get hurt, etc. Positional units turn over pretty quickly and if you do blow a pick you have a lot of chances over a long period of time to make up for it.

 

[dcmissle]

A 'solid 4-8 years' is a ridiculously high bar to set for a late 1st round pick.

The average 29th pick has a CAV (Career Approximate Value) of 30. That's Lawrence Maroney. Getting a good starter for 4-8 years is a resounding success late in the first round.

Well there have been a fair number of them -- including Ryan Pickett (14 years), Marc Columbo (11 years), Nick Barnett (11 also), Michael Jenkins (9 years), Nick Mangold (10 years and counting), Ben Grubbs (9 years and counting), Hakim Nicks (7 years), Kyle Wilson (6), Harrison Smith (4 and counting).

Arbitrarily, I quickly checked the 16 players selected at 29 in the first round since 2000. Put aside for these purposes guys selected from 2013 forward who could not yet have 4 years in the League -- Phillip Dorsett (Colts, last year), Easley (Pats 2014), Cordarelle Patterson (Vikes 2013); you can argue they are too new. Easley is the only one from this group to be jettisoned.

You'll find in this group of sixteen 3 guys who plainly busted -- R.J. Soward, Jags, 2000; Kentwan Balmer, 49ers, 2008; Gabe Carini, Bears, 2011. All the others had at least 4-year careers -- and Harrison Smith is "and counting". The range for the others players goes from 5 to 14 years.

Seven guys drafted at 29 had at least 5 years with the team that drafted them, and all but one of them moved on to continue their careers elsewhere.

So if you count the bust rate at 25%, we clearly hit that with Easley from our standpoint. And a good number of the other ones have had nice careers.

 

[ShaneTrot]

Perhaps they knew he was an asshole going in. It's not like they have a chance every year to draft a Suh or a McCoy, athletic defensive linemen do not grow on trees. They took a shot on an injury risk guy and thought he would buy into their program. Didn't work out. It takes balls to cut a guy like this, he looked pretty good when he played. They took a risk on Gronk, traded up to get him and that worked out. It's a crap shoot sometimes, we should all ask hot woman out tonight, one of us is bound to get lucky!

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Two years is extremely quick to cut ties with a guy who played well enough (when he played) and wasn't arrested for any felonies. How much sooner would you have done it? After year one the FO is probably thinking "okay, there's a difference of opinion here but let's give him past the rookie year to either get in line or produce enough to moot the injury insubordination concerns."

Earth shattering is melodramatic.

 

[Shelterdog]

Well there have been a fair number of them -- including Ryan Pickett (14 years), Marc Columbo (11 years), Nick Barnett (11 also), Michael Jenkins (9 years), Nick Mangold (10 years and counting), Ben Grubbs (9 years and counting), Hakim Nicks (7 years), Kyle Wilson (6), Harrison Smith (4 and counting).

Kyle Wilson is still working on having his first solid year.

 

[dcmissle]

Kyle Wilson is still working on having his first solid year.

ok. as I said, this was a quick and dirty ... and 8 out of 9 ain't bad ... that's 50% of the class from 2000 to date

 

[Stitch01]

The average player at 29 has a career that looks something slightly worse than Ben Watson or slightly better than Brandon Merriweather using Career Average Value. That's going to include busts, so the average player that makes it, so to speak, will be better than that. Some will play better, but for a shorter time. But that's about the average value you can expect from picking 29.

 

[Shelterdog]

The average player at 29 has a career that looks something slightly worse than Ben Watson or slightly better than Brandon Merriweather using Career Average Value. That's going to include busts, so the average player that makes it, so to speak, will be better than that. Some will play better, but for a shorter time. But that's about the average value you can expect from picking 29.

It really is amazing how crappy draft picks are relative to fan expectations (and maybe in particular NE fan expectations). The average late first round draft pick is a player who many, and perhaps most, NE fans thinks of us a bust. Brandon Spikes has the 6th highest career AV and 8th highest number of career starts of the past 21 number 62 picks in the draft; only one number 62 pick from the past 21 drafts has made a pro bowl. The premise that late first round picks should be Logan Mankins or DMC and second round picks should be consistent long term starters is just not grounded in reality.

 

[pappymojo]

I would say that Ben Watson has had (and is still having) a good career.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

I would say that Ben Watson has had (and is still having) a good career.

Ben Watson's career AV (which isn't a great stat, but it works for this) is twice what the average #29 pick is. He's a resounding success at that point in the draft.

 

[mwonow]

It seems like BB was willing to roll the dice on getting a top-10 talent down at 29, and I'm guessing that he had a pretty good idea of the reasons (medical and behavioral) that led to Easley's slide. Not every gamble works out, but if you have a team that's got enough talent to win the Super Bowl (!) without a contribution from the 1st pick, why not swing for the fences and draft at a premium spot, rather than settle for a talented guard/TE/safety/whatever other positions often start getting drafted at 29?

 

[Stitch01]

Ben Watson's career AV (which isn't a great stat, but it works for this) is twice what the average #29 pick is. He's a resounding success at that point in the draft.

Where are you getting that figure out of curiosity? I saw something like 33 as average CAV for the 29th pick when I was looking at this earlier and Watson was something like 36 for his career I thought.

EDIT: Actually more like 31.5, percents are hard.

 

[dcmissle]

Easley went unclaimed on waivers.

You'd think that there were some bad defensive teams that would grab him rather than risk having to compete for him on the open market, but maybe his reputation is just that bad.

This means the Pats are on the hook for guaranteed $1+ million in salary. If he is signed elsewhere, that obligation is offset by what the new team will pay him. And cap wise, he was more expensive to cut than to keep.

This with a guy who played well enough when he was in there, and whose 5 missed games last season (10 over 2 years) was average attendance for this team.

Someone will kick the tires on him and probably sign him for peanuts.

Speaks well of his teammates -- and the team -- because word of the other stuff didn't surface much while he was here. Obviously it got around the League. Unless based on the medicals from the Combine 2 years ago, everyone decided to take a pass.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

It seems like BB was willing to roll the dice on getting a top-10 talent down at 29, and I'm guessing that he had a pretty good idea of the reasons (medical and behavioral) that led to Easley's slide. Not every gamble works out, but if you have a team that's got enough talent to win the Super Bowl (!) without a contribution from the 1st pick, why not swing for the fences and draft at a premium spot, rather than settle for a talented guard/TE/safety/whatever other positions often start getting drafted at 29?

This is where I'm at. So many are "OMG they busted in the first round! Belichick never does!" opinions here and elsewhere. This is a different scenario. The guy was a top talent with top risk. The Pats at 29 said F' it, we've got a great team, we can afford the risk. If it works out great, if not we'll move on.

Yesterday they moved on. It's not like they didn't know they were hitting on an 18 in blackjack. They knew they were but decided to do it anyways because they were already up big.

 

[BigJimEd]

Was he a top 10 talent? There were questions about his size coming out as well. I thought he was considered a mid to late first rounder without the health concerns. Am I remembering wrong?

I do agree that they knew the risk. Not sure that doesn't term it a bust but that's really just semantics.

 

[amarshal2]

I don't know if it's true but it was a common refrain that if DE was healthy he could go top 10.

 

[Rico Guapo]

Was he a top 10 talent? There were questions about his size coming out as well. I thought he was considered a mid to late first rounder without the health concerns. Am I remembering wrong?

I do agree that they knew the risk. Not sure that doesn't term it a bust but that's really just semantics.

When healthy he has elite quickness/reaction to the snap which allows him to penetrate gaps and disrupt blocking schemes very early in the play clock. Think a lighter version of Geno Atkins. Without the ACL injuries most draftniks, for what they're worth, had him pegged as a top ten talent.