The Dugger situation really perplexes me. At first blush, it feels like a no brainer to bring him back. He's played well here and the team lacks elite talent. It appears that he'll be a highly sought after free agent, so if all of these other teams are interested, obviously he's a valuable commodity.The only quibble I have with this is I would tag Onwenu this year to see how he plays while working on a long term deal for him while also drafting 2 OT and see how they develop. If one or both can slot in as starter after this year, Onwenu does not get a long term deal. I would extend Duggar now and get him out of the way.
But still...I don't think they should bring Dugger back.
He's not worth the price tag. Whether you think he should be franchised ($17M) or sign a long term deal, his contract is most likely going to put his AAV as a top 5 safety in the NFL. That puts him in the Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jamal Adams, Derwin James, Jessie Bates stratosphere. Those are elite, all-pro level players. Does anyone view Dugger as those guys peer? Of course not. Primarily because...
He's not good in coverage. His strength as a thumper was perfect for BBs hybrid, 3 safety defense. It's where most of his value comes from as a player. In his first 3 seasons in the NFL, Dugger lined up in the box 1103 times while lining up as a free safety 215 times. That's more than a 5-1 ratio. This season, Dugger was asked to be a more balanced player, lining up in the box for 478 snaps and as a free safety 371 times. It lead to him being targeted the 5th most of all qualified safeties as well as giving up the 5th most catches per snap.
Unfortunately, when teams split him out into the slot this year, things got worse for him. Teams continued to target him - 4th highest # of targets per snap - but he also gave up the 2nd highest yards per snap amongst safeties (2.2 yards per snap). When he was tasked with coverage, teams picked on him consistently and successfully. Is a safety that struggles to cover worth a top 5 contract at safety? That leads me to...
Jabrill Peppers. We already have a thumping safety on the roster for next season, and we have him locked in for $5M. While Peppers wasn't in the box as consistently as Dugger this season, he seemingly performed better when going downhill. PFF has Peppers as their 2nd best safety against the run this season and 8th best last season (14th and 20th for Dugger). And he was able to perform so well against the run while also being PFFs 8th highest ranked coverage safety. While Dugger struggled this season with more coverage responsibilities, Peppers thrived. In fact, you could reasonably argue that Peppers wasn't just a better player than Dugger this season, he was significantly better.
All this leaves me asking...is spending $16-17M a season for Dugger - a good box safety that struggles in coverage - a good use of resources when we already have Peppers on the roster? It seems like most fans think so. In fact, I don't think I've seen anyone say they shouldn't resign Dugger. But that's what I'm saying.
For some reason, Peppers isn't getting the publicity he deserves. If I was the Patriots, I'd be taking advantage of that fact. For the cost of ONE year of Dugger, you could tack on TWO more years to Peppers, having him under contract for the next 3 years. Then you could fill the role of an in box safety - the only place where Dugger really thrives - for 1/3 to 1/2 the price.
With all of the holes that need to be filled, I don't view a safety specialist as a place to sink our funds.
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