Expectations for the 2022 Pats

2022 Pats Predictions

  • > 12 wins; true contender

    Votes: 3 0.9%
  • 11-12 wins; definite playoff team and fringe contender

    Votes: 61 17.3%
  • 9-10 wins; borderline playoff team and "easy out" if they do make it

    Votes: 171 48.6%
  • 7-8 wins; mostly competitive team but not quite good enough to make the playoffs

    Votes: 87 24.7%
  • 5-6 wins; somewhat competitive but multiple things go wrong and they're a bottom 10 team

    Votes: 26 7.4%
  • < 5 wins; bottom 5 team and total disaster

    Votes: 4 1.1%

  • Total voters
    352
  • Poll closed .

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,901
Hingham, MA
Starting a poll to see where everyone thinks this team is going to shake out

Edit: Vegas O/U looks to be set at 8.5

Edit 2: I'm right with Vegas as I expect 8 or 9 wins, but I voted 9 or 10 because I think it's slightly more likely than not that they finish with a winning record, especially given that they were able to win 7 games with the corpse of Cam at QB. I also set up the poll so you purposely have to pick between a winning record or a losing record. Ultimately my prediction is winning record / no playoffs, gun to my head (i.e., a 9-8 record)
 
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sodenj5

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I think they’re 9-10 wins and maybe a wild card team depending on how the rest of the conference shakes out. The AFC is going to be a bloodbath this year.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Oct 31, 2013
76,435
8-9
split with Miami
sweep NYJ
get swept by Buff

OOD wins:
Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Indy
Balmer

December gonna be bad
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
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Apr 25, 2002
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Oregon
8-9
split with Miami
sweep NYJ
get swept by Buff

OOD wins:
Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Indy
Balmer

December gonna be bad
I don't know if I agree with the game by game breakdown (I can see them, for instance, throwing a shoe against the Jets), but I do agree with the 8-9 finish
 

3_games_down

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Dec 1, 2007
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11-7 with a slow start to strong finish progression. Expecting a top 3 ranked defense. Would not be surprised if the offense progresses into a top 10 unit.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
25,478
Wow I don’t expect a top 3 defense. I see 9-10 wins and a possible playoff berth, but if they get there I’m not sure I see them automatically being an easy out. They could win the WC round possibly.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
18,841
I went with 9-10 wins, with large error bars.

Upside potential: Mac shows marked improvement from his first year while the defense gels, and they sneak up on the better teams in their schedule and prove to be a tough out in the playoffs.

Downside risks: It takes Mac and the offense half a season to get into form, and while they play better they still fall short in the tougher half of the schedule.

Look out below scenario: The defensive depth improvement turns into a mirage, and that combined with injuries pushes them to the lower half of the playoff DNQ's.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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Wow I don’t expect a top 3 defense. I see 9-10 wins and a possible playoff berth, but if they get there I’m not sure I see them automatically being an easy out. They could win the WC round possibly.
By "Easy out" I meant more that there's no way they make a run to the AFCCG.
 

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
23,393
I'm surprised with the relative pessimism in here. I put them down for 11-12 wins and a fringe contender. I think they are below the Bills/KC tier in the AFC but have a real case for being the best of the rest of that bunch. I'm not as bullish on the rest of the AFC as most people; and I think the Pats infrastructure and coaching is still miles ahead of most other franchises.
 

Mooch

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Jul 15, 2005
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7-10.

I see a lot of problems with this offensive line. Losing guys like Mason and Thuney will catch up to us this year since I think the Pats will struggle mightily to run between the tackles, which has typically been a strength. Plus, the uncertainty without Josh running this offense is a major question mark. On defense, the front 7 will hold their own but I think our combination of B-level corners will get beat regularly by elite level wideouts. There are some parts there but not nearly enough playmakers to cover up the holes.

If there are any key injuries this season, this team could be in real trouble. I can't remember the last time I felt so pessimistic about an upcoming season.
 

Jungleland

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Aug 2, 2009
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Going into camp, I was thinking the positive side of 500ish, so 9 wins in a 17 game season and missing playoffs. I'm not overreacting to the reports of struggle, but it's enough for me to drop that number to 8. I think this is a very decent roster, but given the strength of the AFC and presence of the Bills in the division it seems reasonable to think they need a couple major things to go right to be a contender.

My hope is they'll come out of this season looking like Mac can be a top 10 QB next year and that they're within a couple players of true contender. (I still think it's likely they need help at at least a couple of CB, LB, or WR.) That feels within reach to me, but I think Mac will need to play close to that level within the first month of the season if they're going to have a significant shot this year.
 

8slim

has trust issues
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Nov 6, 2001
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8-9 and just missing out on a playoff spot.

I'd like to be more optimistic, but I really think this team is going to desperately miss McDaniels.
 

cshea

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Nov 15, 2006
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Schedule for reference

@ Miami
@ Pittsburgh
vs. Baltimore
@ Green Bay
vs. Detroit
@ Cleveland
vs. Chicago (MNF)
@ NY Jets
vs. Indy
BYE
vs. NY Jets
@ Minnesota (Thanksgiving)
vs. Buffalo (TNF)
@ Arizona
@ Las Vegas (SNF)
vs. Cincy
vs. Miami
@ Buffalo
 

BusRaker

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Aug 11, 2006
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2nd year Mac, decent receiving group, good RB group, good defense, good special teams
I'm going 11-6 with the major liability being an OL that could turn Mac into a 16-20 ranked QB and a lot of run stuffs
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
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Apr 23, 2010
6,385
from the wilds of western ma
I’m a little more bullish than others. 11-6, wildcard, with a chance to be a tough out in the playoffs. It’ll depend on further development from Mack, but I expect that. And I think the offensive coaching staff criticisms are overblown. Judge and Patricia are experienced, professional coaches. And there’s an ocean of institutional knowledge there with BB, to keep things on track from a coaching standpoint. Good running back group, solid enough receiver and TE group, and I expect the O line to jell. Defense is a bit of a crapshoot with the personnel changes, but there’s talent at all three levels. And I like the move to more speed in the front 7. Lastly, and not to be underestimated, they have an outstanding kicker. Certainly some holes and questions, and they’re not on the KC/Buffalo/Denver level. But I expect a fun season and a dangerous team.
 
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Koufax

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10 - 7. The team is likely to struggle at the beginning but good coaching, QB play and an offensive line that will jell as the season progresses will save them from a losing season.
 

Seels

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Jul 20, 2005
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I think they make the playoffs but that's like 70% on Belichick. I don't think this is a talented crew on either side of the ball, and honestly, if this were an average coach and not Belichick we're probably looking at a top 10 pick. I think the drafts have been terrible for a few years now, especially 2022. I hope I'm proven wrong.
 

sezwho

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Jul 20, 2005
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By "Easy out" I meant more that there's no way they make a run to the AFCCG.
Then I feel better about my pick. 10 wins, could be more if Mac is able to capitalize on these weapons and the D comes into shape. Downside tied to O-line and underperforming D.

Go Pats!
 

RG33

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Nov 28, 2005
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11-12 wins with playoffs and fringe contender. Year 2 Mac makes the leap, the WR corps is greatly improved, after 3-5 games of adjustments the defense is top 10, and the OL meshes to create a really strong running game with one of the best RB crews in the NFL. All of this assumes health, of course.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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I think they make the playoffs but that's like 70% on Belichick. I don't think this is a talented crew on either side of the ball, and honestly, if this were an average coach and not Belichick we're probably looking at a top 10 pick. I think the drafts have been terrible for a few years now, especially 2022. I hope I'm proven wrong.
The very early returns on the 2022 draft have all been really positive. The 2019 draft was a disaster, but 2021 and 2022 seem to be much better. The jury is still out on 2020.
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
16,175
I say 9-10 wins, in contention for the playoffs. Maybe make it. I could see a hot start, maybe 7-3, followed by a losing record over the last seven games.

If forced to pick a record I suppose I’d go 9-8. But 10-7 more likely than 8-9.

I’m not going as far as “easy out” if they make the playoffs though.
 

Gash Prex

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Apr 18, 2002
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I find it interesting so many people are down - the Pats won 10 games and made the playoffs last year with a rookie QB. They had some fluky plays like the Miami game that cost them at least 1 win, plus last second losses to the Bucs and Cowboys that could have gone either way. By weighted overall DVOA they were #2 (#4 regular DVOA), and offense was #9 and defense was #4. During the middle of the season the Pats were one of the best overall teams in the NFL.

They lost JC Jackson but no other major departures. Upside is Mac and the offense in year 2.

The ending sucked don't get me wrong, but I think the ending of coloring some perceptions of the team going into the season.
 

Seels

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The very early returns on the 2022 draft have all been really positive. The 2019 draft was a disaster, but 2021 and 2022 seem to be much better. The jury is still out on 2020.
Outside of Onwenu and maybe Dugger (and I'm not nearly sold on Dugger) the 2020 draft is a wash. I will love to be wrong about 22. There's no draft in the entire Belichick era that I disliked as much as this one, either on day one, or going into the season. And given the mixed camp results of our 1st round pick, that our frail 2nd round pick looks to be out half the year....look, I'll be the first person to admit when I'm wrong here. In Belichick we trust.


I find it interesting so many people are down - the Pats won 10 games and made the playoffs last year with a rookie QB. They had some fluky plays like the Miami game that cost them at least 1 win, plus last second losses to the Bucs and Cowboys that could have gone either way. By weighted overall DVOA they were #2 (#4 regular DVOA), and offense was #9 and defense was #4. During the middle of the season the Pats were one of the best overall teams in the NFL.

They lost JC Jackson but no other major departures. Upside is Mac and the offense in year 2.

The ending sucked don't get me wrong, but I think the ending of coloring some perceptions of the team going into the season.
The team is younger but that lb/db depth chart is a complete mess. It was bad coming out of 2021 got worse. I don't know how this team doesn't give up 35+ to every decent offense out there. Maybe the Bills just have them figured out, but I really don't know how this team stops the pass or the run on any team. They have guys like McCourty and Judon and they have the Belichicks so I'm sure they'll still be top 10 in points allowed and maybe even top 5. But this defense has issues all over the place.
 

TheRooster

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Aug 3, 2001
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11 wins still means 6 losses, high for a BB team with a competent QB, so I went with11-12 wins. I believe the OC concerns are way overblown. The running game will be terrific and Mac is plenty good enough to manage an efficient passing attack. The defensive line could be nasty. If any of the linebackers emerge, this team could contend.
 

Harry Hooper

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I am going with 8 wins as the defense's sideline-on field confusion (e.g., too many men) in recent seasons spreads over to the offensive unit.

Looking at that post-bye section of the schedule, seem to be more L's than W's so not much momentum if the Pats do secure a playoff berth. Just win get in, baby!
 

GB5

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Aug 26, 2013
716
8 wins.

This is a passing league and our DB’s stink.
This is a passing league and our WR’s stink.
 

streeter88

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Apr 2, 2006
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Melbourne, Australia
The optimists in the Spring Training thread and here have made some compelling points. Debating whether to change my vote from 9-10 wins to 11-12 wins, especially with the point about first year Mac being a hair away from 11 or 12 wins last year with a molasses LB corps and a very poor WR corps. Based on ST both units should be better, and the drop off in our DB unit maybe not as bad as some might think.

Would be an easier decision if Thornton hadn't broken his clavicle last week. Stuff it, I used up all my pessimism on the Sox this year - and it wasn't enough, so I think the injury gods owe New England one. 11 wins it is!
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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9-10 wins sounds about right with normal injury and close game luck. If things break right, maybe 11-6 is possible. If things don’t go our way, 8-9. There aren’t many stars on this team but there are a decent amount of quality players. Really hope the new Jones’ pop.
 

Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
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10-7.

The got a little faster and a little younger in some roles, but inexperience balances off the gains in year one. Mac will take more chances and leave fewer points on the field, with an unfortunate increase in INTs due to taking more chances. It may feel like a team not moving forward, but they are.
 
Apr 24, 2019
1,278
7-10. Offense will get it together-ish eventually, but there's a long way to go. The OL has a chance to be a total dumpster fire. D has looked good, but they're hard to trust, especially with the lack of elite talent AND experience at LB. Schedule is not easy. Hope I'm wrong.
 

ponch73

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8-9. Slow start at the beginning of the season with 3 tough road games. Team picks up momentum against the weak middle of the schedule, but it's a mirage that is quickly put to rest with a poor set of showings against tough competition beginning in week 13. Porous O-line gets Mac banged up, and the offense regresses badly under Patricia. Most of SOSH remembers McDaniels' 3rd and long play calls with Bolden wistfully.

Belichick takes abundant criticism from the Felger & Mazz/Bedard/WEEI types (and even gets semi-scolded by Kraft publicly after season-ending 4-game losing streak). Patricia gets bumped upstairs to take over for Matt Groh, who is sidelined after underwhelming performances across-the-board from 2022 draft picks. Nevertheless, most pundits fail to notice the continued improvement of the defensive unit as the season goes on, which (with some key offseason additions) is positioned to lead the team back to the playoffs in 2023.

L @ Miami
L @ Pittsburgh
W vs. Baltimore
L @ Green Bay
W vs. Detroit
W @ Cleveland
W vs. Chicago (MNF)
W @ NY Jets
L vs. Indy
BYE
W vs. NY Jets
W @ Minnesota (Thanksgiving)
L vs. Buffalo (TNF)
W @ Arizona
L @ Las Vegas (SNF)
L vs. Cincy
L vs. Miami
L @ Buffalo
 
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88 MVP

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Dec 25, 2007
552
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11-6.

Mac makes a mini leap in year 2 and they feast on the early part of the schedule and head into Thanksgiving 8-2. The last 7 weeks the schedule gets tougher and they back into the playoffs going 3-4 down the stretch.
 

streeter88

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Apr 2, 2006
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At least two posters have said we won't beat the Steelers. Second game of the season; they're going to start either Trubisky or the rookie Pickett. What have I missed that has people picking that as a loss?
 

Justthetippett

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Aug 9, 2015
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I think this team has the potential to win 12 games and it basically hinges on Mac’s development and ability to win close games. I think the D will be competitive against most teams, and get overwhelmed by others. Mac will have to balance things out. Most concerning thing out of camp are the reports of the run game suffering. They need that to be a strength. I also hope the stuff with Bourne is just noise and he builds on last year.
 

IdiotKicker

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Nov 21, 2005
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There are a wide range of outcomes this year, but I am going to buy the reported suck of the preseason. When you have guys like Reiss talking about how bad practice has been, that stands out to me. An offense change in the second year or a QB's career, the uncertainty of the front seven on defense, and the OL struggles point to a team with a low margin of error. If you had to pin me down, I'd say 6 wins.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
11,252
They certainly can't afford a slow start because the end of the season schedule is brutal. I could see a 7-2 start followed by a 2-6 finish to the season ending at 9-8 which probably isn't quite enough to make the playoffs.
 

EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
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I went with 7-8 wins, but like IK mentioned above, there's a wide range of outcomes here. OL depth and pass rush are my biggest concerns, but I'm not sure either one is a fatal flaw (with OL more likely to be the fatal flaw of the two). Those two areas could both end up being fine as well though.

I can't help but think back to 2020. That was a truly horrendous roster (Cam, Byrd, Izzo, street free agents starting at DT, etc.). They still coached their way to 7-9. This roster (on paper) looks meaningfully better than that 2020 team, so who knows. If the OL holds up, this should be a playoff team. If it doesn't, it's likely to be a long year.