Expectations for the 2022 Pats

2022 Pats Predictions

  • > 12 wins; true contender

    Votes: 3 0.9%
  • 11-12 wins; definite playoff team and fringe contender

    Votes: 61 17.3%
  • 9-10 wins; borderline playoff team and "easy out" if they do make it

    Votes: 171 48.6%
  • 7-8 wins; mostly competitive team but not quite good enough to make the playoffs

    Votes: 87 24.7%
  • 5-6 wins; somewhat competitive but multiple things go wrong and they're a bottom 10 team

    Votes: 26 7.4%
  • < 5 wins; bottom 5 team and total disaster

    Votes: 4 1.1%

  • Total voters
    352
  • Poll closed .

lexrageorge

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That's not at all inconsistent with Belichick's statements about past preseasons. The game results are essentially useless in terms of evaluating how well the team will perform when the season actually starts. The 5-6 week checkpoint is also consistent with past statements about how the first third of the season is spent evaluating the team's strengths and weaknesses under game conditions.

Don't believe that statement has any bearing on how well the Pats will perform in their season opener.

EDIT: And, to be clear, I'm not necessarily saying the Pats will win a walk over Miami, or that they will win the Super Bowl. There are indeed legit concerns heading into both the season and their opener in an environment where the team has traditionally struggled. But the preseason games are so far apart from the real thing that it's really difficult to discern much. Otherwise, those vaunted (and Shank-glorified) Baltimore Ravens would have easily won a couple of Super Bowls since 2016.
 
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BaseballJones

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I agree with both you guys, @tims4wins and @lexrageorge - yet I am very pessimistic about the opener and think the Pats may get obliterated in week 1. Which is fine - whether you lose by 1 or 30 doesn't matter, a loss is a loss. And I think this team will, by the latter stages, be pretty darned good. But they can't take TOO long to get their act together or they'll have too much ground to make up.
 

Bigdogx

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Jul 21, 2020
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I’m sorry but I think many of us are in serious denial about this team. “9 or 10 wins” is… hopeful at best. The defense might be decent but the offense is next level putrid. Remember how bad the D looked in the first few weeks of the ‘17 season? That’s what the offense will be every week of this season.

Not to mention the schedule is actually
pretty difficult and the easier games are all bundled together. So the whole thing looks like the potential to be a cluster F.

Doing the “schedule thing”
______________________________

@ MiamiLOSS
@ PittsburghLOSS
vs. BaltimoreLOSS
@ Green BayLOSS
vs. DetroitWIN
@ ClevelandLOSS
vs. Chicago (MNF) WIN
@ NY JetsWIN
vs. Indy WIN
BYE
vs. NY JetsWIN
@ Minnesota (Thanksgiving) LOSS
vs. Buffalo (TNF) LOSS
@ ArizonaLOSS
@ Las Vegas (SNF) LOSS
vs CincinattiLOSS
vs. MiamiLOSS
@BuffaloWIN*****

*****
(I think Buffalo might already it’s postseason position locked in - so it might be resting all starters - and knowing Bill he’ll try to win even though it’ll hurt our draft spot)
Pretty much the same except even Buffalo's second team is better than the Pats starters imo this season, and think this Pats team would lose to them. It is going to be a rough road from Turkey day on this year.

5 wins and bottom of the league barrel is were i got this team. I just don't see the talent with this squad and a few injuries will be devastating with how little depth they have.
 
Feb 19, 2015
4,873
If Buffalo's second team is in fact better than the Pats starters, we're looking at 2 or 3 wins this year. (I don't think this it the case.)
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Pretty much the same except even Buffalo's second team is better than the Pats starters imo this season, and think this Pats team would lose to them. It is going to be a rough road from Turkey day on this year.

5 wins and bottom of the league barrel is were i got this team. I just don't see the talent with this squad and a few injuries will be devastating with how little depth they have.
Well if you’re right at least they’ll have a great draft slot, which will be hugely helpful moving forward.
 

OnTheBlack

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Dec 23, 2020
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Predicting 4 or 5 wins out of a BB is foolish. We made the playoffs with a similar team last year and a rookie at QB.
 

ManicCompression

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Predicting 4 or 5 wins out of a BB is foolish. We made the playoffs with a similar team last year and a rookie at QB.
They have:
- A harder schedule this year
- New and unproven leadership on the offensive side of the ball (and a coaching situation that we'd make fun of if it were any other team)
- A talent drain since last year - JC Jackson is gone, along with two starting guards in Mason and Karras, and they've been replaced by rookies who aren't setting the world on fire
- Our division and conference foes have improved since last year - Miami and the Jets will likely be much more difficult matchups than last year

I went with 7-8 wins, but I think 5 wins is more likely than 10 when you factor in injuries
 

Kliq

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They have:
- A harder schedule this year
- New and unproven leadership on the offensive side of the ball (and a coaching situation that we'd make fun of if it were any other team)
- A talent drain since last year - JC Jackson is gone, along with two starting guards in Mason and Karras, and they've been replaced by rookies who aren't setting the world on fire
- Our division and conference foes have improved since last year - Miami and the Jets will likely be much more difficult matchups than last year

I went with 7-8 wins, but I think 5 wins is more likely than 10 when you factor in injuries
Why exactly are people so high on Miami being better than they were last season? They overachieved last season, they have a potential disaster situation at QB and they fired a very good coach.

The Jets...I'll believe the Jets are much improved when they start playing a few games. I think people in general are overrating the quality of the AFC, a lot of off-season hype for teams that have yet to really do anything.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Some of the prognostications implicitly overrate the competition by quite a bit. I mean, to cite an example from a recent post….depth? Who has it, and where?
 

ManicCompression

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Why exactly are people so high on Miami being better than they were last season? They overachieved last season, they have a potential disaster situation at QB and they fired a very good coach.

The Jets...I'll believe the Jets are much improved when they start playing a few games. I think people in general are overrating the quality of the AFC, a lot of off-season hype for teams that have yet to really do anything.
Was Flores a "very good coach"? He got his team to play but he jerked around Tua like a sixth round pick - 90% of a modern coach's job is putting a young qb in a position to succeed. I think McDaniel will likely do that.

I'm not saying that the Jets or Miami are going to be worldbeaters, but they at the very least probably improved over last year via signings and the draft. The Pats opponents this year are the NFC North and AFC North, plus the Cardinals, Colts, and Raiders. There isn't a ton of fat to chew beyond the Lions, Bears and Watson-less Browns, so they'll need to go at least .500 against the division to get to 9 wins. That just seems harder to do this year than last year when looking at these teams.
 

m0ckduck

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ESPN just posted their Top 100 players chosen by a panel of 50 experts (or something). The list includes... zero Patriots. Not saying that one should put much stock into such things, but that's a pretty damning lack of faith in the Pats top-end talent among evaluators. The four other teams that don't appear in the list: Jets, Giants, Jaguars and Lions.
 

Bigdogx

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Jul 21, 2020
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Lmao, why am i reading the "how is Miami better this season" people when they added one of the top 5 receivers in the game to pair with last years outstanding rookie in Waddle?

I also agree with espn putting no patriots in the top 100, the talent drain on this team is no longer able to be masked and it is a glaringly obvious. They literally lost their two best & highest rated players this off season.
 

cournoyer

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Lmao, why am i reading the "how is Miami better this season" people when they added one of the top 5 receivers in the game to pair with last years outstanding rookie in Waddle?

I also agree with espn putting no patriots in the top 100, the talent drain on this team is no longer able to be masked and it is a glaringly obvious. They literally lost their two best & highest rated players this off season.
I mean, Matt Judon had 12.5 sacks last year that's pretty good. And a pro bowl for the third year in a row.
 

Mystic Merlin

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That’s a bit of a tricky post by Barnwell. What hit rate does one expect from that distribution of first to third round picks, and what constitutes a hit? Starter? Fifty percent of snaps when active?

Nobody would say their draft record from 2016-2020 (I would go back farther than Barnwell) was good, but there is some puffing of his case going on with the way in which it is being framed.
 

jezza1918

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That’s a bit of a tricky post by Barnwell. What hit rate does one expect from that distribution of first to third round picks, and what constitutes a hit? Starter? Fifty percent of snaps when active?

Nobody would say their draft record from 2016-2020 (I would go back farther than Barnwell) was good, but there is some puffing of his case going on with the way in which it is being framed.
Agreed. I'd also add on someone like Michel might be an overall bust from a career standpoint, but the guy was also pretty much the playoff MVP in a year the patriots won the superbowl. So even if you don't count that as a win for the patriots because he didnt do much after, if you are doing a fair assessment of their drafting you'd probably want to include his 336 yards/4.7 ypc/ 6TDs in 3 games in a superbowl run next to his negatives.
 

nattysez

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Agreed. I'd also add on someone like Michel might be an overall bust from a career standpoint, but the guy was also pretty much the playoff MVP in a year the patriots won the superbowl. So even if you don't count that as a win for the patriots because he didnt do much after, if you are doing a fair assessment of their drafting you'd probably want to include his 336 yards/4.7 ypc/ 6TDs in 3 games in a superbowl run next to his negatives.
I 100% agree with this re Michel.

Others are already hopping on this trend:
View: https://twitter.com/ryenarussillo/status/1564659477671976965?t=aVaSLU0goVqxZlveA0Fapg&s=19
 

lexrageorge

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Book is still being written on Uche and Jennings. But the drafting in those 3 years, and the couple preceding years, is a reason why the team is at a crossroads.
 

BaseballJones

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Ten rookies making the initial 53-man roster. That's a TON. This team is much younger and much more athletic. It remains to be seen if there's an improvement in on-field production. But still... we were all hoping for younger and faster. And that's what we got. Big time.
 

radsoxfan

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Ten rookies making the initial 53-man roster. That's a TON. This team is much younger and much more athletic. It remains to be seen if there's an improvement in on-field production. But still... we were all hoping for younger and faster. And that's what we got. Big time.
As someone who follows the NBA more than the NFL.... lots of rookies on the roster usually is not a good sign.

Obviously it depends on their expected role and the specifics of the each rookie. Some can be studs right out of the gate in the NFL.

But seeing lots of rookies doesn't exactly inspire confidence at first glance, even if they are fast.
 

Ferm Sheller

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As someone who follows the NBA more than the NFL.... lots of rookies on the roster usually is not a good sign.

Obviously it depends on their expected role and the specifics of the each rookie. Some can be studs right out of the gate in the NFL.

But seeing lots of rookies doesn't exactly inspire confidence at first glance, even if they are fast.
By my count, the Rams had 10 rookies on their roster each appear in 8 or more games last year.

EDIT: Actually, it could have been more than 10. I'm only counting guys who returned this year and not "one and dones" (if there are any).
 

lexrageorge

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As someone who follows the NBA more than the NFL.... lots of rookies on the roster usually is not a good sign.

Obviously it depends on their expected role and the specifics of the each rookie. Some can be studs right out of the gate in the NFL.

But seeing lots of rookies doesn't exactly inspire confidence at first glance, even if they are fast.
The raw number of 10 is misleading, and is not out of the ordinary either.

The Pats had 10 draftees in 7 rounds. Of those, 8 made the roster; 6th rounder Kevin Harris was cut, but will likely make the practice squad; 7th rounder Andrew Stueber will likely miss the season. One of those 8, Bailey Zappe, is unlikely to see much if any playing time. Of the others, Hines provides depth as the 8th OL, and Pierre Strong will be the 4th RB, another traditional developmental role on the team. The two UDFA's, DaMarcus Mitchell and Brenden Schooler, will provide spark on special teams, an area where the roster needed to get younger.

There is a problem in that these rookies replaced some 2nd and 3rd year players that never developed
 

Jimbodandy

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As someone who follows the NBA more than the NFL.... lots of rookies on the roster usually is not a good sign.

Obviously it depends on their expected role and the specifics of the each rookie. Some can be studs right out of the gate in the NFL.

But seeing lots of rookies doesn't exactly inspire confidence at first glance, even if they are fast.
Ten rookies making the 53 man is like three rookies making your NBA roster. It wouldn't really be that weird. >20% of the Celtics roster right now is odd ducks, and they're a finals favorite.
 

radsoxfan

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Ten rookies making the 53 man is like three rookies making your NBA roster. It wouldn't really be that weird. >20% of the Celtics roster right now is odd ducks, and they're a finals favorite.
Gotcha, I didn't do much digging was just responding to the quote about how 10 rookies making the 53 man roster was A TON. Sounds like maybe it's not too odd after all.

In the NBA rookies tend to stink, even the ones that eventually are good. So my immediate reaction wasn't "this is exciting, these guy will be younger and faster" but rather "uh oh....."
 

Jimbodandy

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Gotcha, I didn't do much digging was just responding to the quote about how 10 rookies making the 53 man roster was A TON. Sounds like maybe it's not too odd after all.

In the NBA rookies tend to stink, even the ones that eventually are good. So my immediate reaction wasn't "this is exciting, these guy will be younger and faster" but rather "uh oh....."
I'm more of a basketball guy too, but I think that you'll see a large percentage of these rookies doing special teams and depth jobs. Unlike on good NBA teams where 3/15 rookies mostly wouldn't play except garbage time, 10/53 young guys who aren't ready for meaningful roles on offense and defense can still make valuable contributions on kick/coverage teams. Strange is an exception and will likely be a big snap guy all season barring injury. We might see some kids contribute here and there, but it's not like our season is hanging on 4 rookie starters on offense/defense (4/22~=20%).
 

Shelterdog

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Some of the prognostications implicitly overrate the competition by quite a bit. I mean, to cite an example from a recent post….depth? Who has it, and where?
I like the idea that Buffalo's second team is better than our first team. Because Barmore Judon Henry Andrews are the kind of guys you find on second teams all over the league.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't know what people define as "top end talent". All-Pros? Pro Bowl players? I don't know. Here's how I look at each position group from the initial 53-man roster. I'll give each position group a grade on top end talent, and depth.

Quarterback - Jones, Hoyer, Zappe
Mac is solid. I think he will end up being a really good NFL quarterback. It has taken many guys who turn out to be excellent several years to really click. I could see what appears to be a flat line from last year to this, even as he progresses. It might not show up in the stats. But he's a really nice building block. Hoyer is what he is. Zappe...eh who knows, but you gotta (I guess) have three QBs on the roster just in case.

Top end talent: B
Depth: C-

Running Back - D Harris, Stevenson, Strong, Montgomery
This group has loads of talent. Harris is a beast. Stevenson maybe even more so plus more receiving ability. Strong is one of the fastest RBs in the league. Montgomery is uber versatile. Only having four guys at this position might be problematic, especially because we already know that Montgomery is hurt...though we don't know how bad his injury is.

Top end talent: A-
Depth: B+

Wide Receivers - Parker, Bourne, Meyers, Agholor, Thornton
I like this group. A lot. More than most everyone else here. Parker is really good. I'm high on Bourne, though his preseason was worrisome. Meyers is solid, nothing more, but hey, solid is pretty good. I think Agholor could be in for a really good season. And the sky is the limit for Thornton, though of course we already see him hurt and who knows if he can hold up. But when on the field, that kid looks DYNAMIC. Depth is an issue right now for sure. They don't have a true #1, so that bumps down their top end talent grade, and the Thornton injury bumps down their depth - plus they only have 5 WRs on the roster in the first place. But this group, when healthy, features five really solid players. Nothing wrong with that at all.

Top end talent: C+
Depth: C

Tight End - Henry, Smith
Well, we know that Henry is a really good player. He clicked with Mac last year. And so for me this all comes down to Jonnu Smith. He has tons of ability, but the question is whether they can maximize it. I think he's a playmaker, but he also has stretches where he's invisible. Only having two TEs obviously limits depth considerably.

Top end talent: B-
Depth: D

Offensive Line - Brown, Strange, Andrews, Onwenu, Wynn, Cajuste, Herron, Hines
I'm suddenly not sure about this group. I had thought it could be one of the better lines in the league, but man, their summer performance was DISMAL in so many ways. That doesn't inspire confidence. Maybe it's a new scheme. Maybe it's a lack of cohesion. Maybe it's a lack of talent. Maybe it's not having good coaching. I don't know, but I'm most worried about this group more than any other position. I think talent is there - Brown is a mountain, and we know Andrews is excellent. Onwenu is a year removed from dominating as a rookie. And Wynn has the pedigree. Lots of people like Hines, and I think we all think Strange will be really good in the NFL. But man...it's not just about the individual ability of these guys. More than any other group, they need to mesh TOGETHER as a unit, and so far, haven't seen it.

Top end talent: B-
Depth: C

Defensive Line - Wise, Barmore, Godchaux, Guy, Roberts, Davis, Mitchell
Hmmm...I'd like to think this group could be really good. Barmore should be an absolute monster. Godchaux...well...BB is really high on him and I am not a DL expert, but it looked to me like he got moved around pretty easily last year. Guy is pretty solid. I like Roberts' potential, and Carl Davis at times looks like a stud in there. Wise, I could take or leave. I think on the whole this group is pretty decent, though not spectacular. If somehow Roberts could really pop, and Barmore reaches his nearly limitless potential, this group could be excellent.

Top end talent: B+ (based on Barmore alone)
Depth: B

Linebacker - Bentley, McMillan, Judon, Uche, Wilson, Jennings, Tavai
I think this group is versatile and much faster than previous iterations. I don't love Tavai, but Jennings flashed this summer. Wilson and McMillan have the kind of speed they haven't had in a while at the position. Bentley is a thumper but struggles in coverage (well-documented here). Judos is an all pro talent. Too bad he faded at the end of last year. But there's legit talent here.

Top end talent: B+ (Judon is a potential DPOY type player)
Depth: B

Cornerback - Mills, J Jones, M Jones, J Jones, Bryant, Wade
Losing Gilmore one year, then JC Jackson the next, really hurts. But we can't pine for what's not here, and we have to focus on what IS here. I think this is an unspectacular, but pretty decent, group. Mills isn't really a #1, though he has played well this summer. I think he's gonna get absolutely roasted by good WRs, though he will make a play or two. I am not sure if J Jones is miscast on the outside, as he was an excellent slot guy. At least he has the raw speed to keep up with elite WRs. I'm super curious about the rookie Jones boys. I think there's real playmaking talent there, but it might take a couple of years to bear fruit. I think they both have legit futures in this league as outstanding corners. Bryant...well...the last thing I remember about him was him getting torched by a backup Bills' WR for like 11 receptions in a game. Ugh. Wade I guess gives them size at the position to match up with bigger WRs.

Top end talent: B- (though in a couple of years I think the rookie Jones boys could make this grade an A...but not yet)
Depth: C+

Safety - McCourty, Phillips, Dugger, Peppers, Bledsoe
I love this group. I think they have thump, versatility, experience, athleticism, and lots of skill. Best overall position group on the team, in my opinion, even if they don't have an all pro level player. Everyone here is just GOOD. It's just a group of really good football players that will be counted on heavily to anchor the defense.

Top end talent: B+
Depth: A

Specialists - Folk, Bailey, Cardona, Slater, Davis, Schooler
They have an excellent group of specialists. Solid kicker, great punter, I guess a good long snapper (haha who knows), and the coverage specialists are all excellent. Of course special teams includes 11 guys, not just a few, and they had huge breakdowns last year, so I don't know how their overall special teams will look, but this particular group of specialists is really good.

Top end talent: B+
Depth: A (Bailey can handle kicking duties if necessary)


So to me this roster (which we know will change even in the next few hours) definitely has some exciting talent, but they aren't loaded with pro bowl caliber players. I'd say they have a lot of GOOD players, though few GREAT ones. Depth on the whole seems to be pretty decent, but it looks like, overall, a slightly better than average roster. That might sound ok on paper, but it wouldn't take much at all - a poor performance by someone we expect to be good, or a key injury, etc. - for this group to suddenly be well below average. They have the potential to win a pretty good number of games (max of 11, IMO, if everything goes right) to feeling like this season was basically a catastrophe (potential for a 6 win season if things go poorly). And that line between the two, for a team like this, is pretty thin.

I'm also not sold on the coaching staff. I still have huge regard for Belichick, but like most everyone else here, I'm not in love with Judge or Patricia, and wish we had a total coaching staff I had more confidence in. I like Mayo, and Troy Brown, but I really have question marks with the coaches.

I do think this team's outlook really is for 2023 and beyond, and this is a bit of a building type season. So I'll be thrilled if they make the playoffs, but what I'm really looking for this year is a team to make clear, tangible steps forward, so that we can have a high degree of confidence that in 2023 they'll actually be AFC contenders. I could see a very rough start given (a) their schedule, and (b) how poor they performed over the summer, but I do expect them to clean things up and look like a pretty competent NFL team after that. Unfortunately, the schedule gets pretty brutal at the end, so I could see a struggle the last quarter of the year. They might be playing a lot better by then and still lose.

I am thinking about 8-10 wins, because I don't think everything will break right, nor will everything break wrong, and that's about their true talent level, IMO.
 

Saints Rest

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Book is still being written on Uche and Jennings. But the drafting in those 3 years, and the couple preceding years, is a reason why the team is at a crossroads.
I agree. I also think that cherry-picking the top 3 rounds is unnecessary. Look at the draft (and really, also at UDFAs) as a whole. I would hazard (wild-ass guess) that most teams would like to have 6-8 rookies make their team each year, with 2-3 of those being core rotational players.

The Pats' problem is that over that ugly stretch from 2017-2019, they didn't achieve that. Just looking at core-rational players from those drafts.
  • 2017 -- 1 guy (Wise)
  • 2018 -- 2-3 guys at best (Wynn, Michel, Bentley) plus Jackson (UDFA)
  • 2019 -- 1 guy (Harris). plus Meyers (UDFA). Bonus points for Bailey and Gunner (UDFA)
But it's made worse when they didn't add much in terms of the deeper parts of the drafts:
  • 2017 -- no one
  • 2018 -- Izzo
  • 2019 -- Harry, Wino, JJW, and Cajuste
More recently, things are looking better.
Core/rotational:
  • 2020 -- 2 for sure (Onwneu, Dugger), 2 possible (Uche, Jennings). plus Taylor (UDFA)
  • 2021 -- 3 for sure (Jones, Barmore, Stephenson)
Depth:
  • 2020 -- Herron (Uche, Jennings)
  • 2021 -- Bledsoe, maybe Perkins some day, maybe Nixon.
 

streeter88

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The defense is still a couple players away (CB1, young FS), but they’re in the upper echelon, and the pass rush was awesome last night. Consistent pressure with four guys rushing, which is everyone’s dream.
/snip/
The offense is still very bad, but I had this team as a 6-win team heading into the year and they’ve exceeded my expectations now. Happy to be wrong, but not sure where they really go the remainder of the season.
Bumping this thread a couple of weeks early - how do you all think the Patriots will finish, and will they meet your expectations as polled before the season started?

I went with 9-10 wins, borderline playoff team and easy out at best. From here they need to win 2 out of 4 to get to that level. I think they can beat LVR (away) and maybe Miami (home). Cincinnati (home) and Buffalo (away) will be much harder.
 

tims4wins

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Bumping this thread a couple of weeks early - how do you all think the Patriots will finish, and will they meet your expectations as polled before the season started?

I went with 9-10 wins, borderline playoff team and easy out at best. From here they need to win 2 out of 4 to get to that level. I think they can beat LVR (away) and maybe Miami (home). Cincinnati (home) and Buffalo (away) will be much harder.
I voted the same, but if re-voting today I go with 7-8 wins and no playoffs.
 

tims4wins

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I voted 7-8 wins. I believe they could be a 9-10 win team but the OL gives me a lot of pause. If they can't solidify that group the entire offense will implode. Defense will regress and the offense doesn't seem to be able to get all 11 guys executing well enough and on the same page - or at the very least not consistently.

at MIA L
at PIT W
vs BAL L
at GB L
vs DET W
at CLE W
vs CHI W
at NYJ W
vs IND L
vs NYJ W
at MIN L
vs BUF L
at ARI W
at LVR L
vs CIN L
vs MIA L
at BUF L
Flip Chicago and Indy and you nailed the first 13 games. Hope you’re wrong on the final 4…
 

streeter88

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Flip Chicago and Indy and you nailed the first 13 games. Hope you’re wrong on the final 4…
Amazing that the weak OL prediction before the season has largely come true. But I also thought many were down on the defense, which could then be said to have outperformed, thus far anyway.
Edit: not really that amazing - the OL looked terrible in the preseason. But credit where credit is due.
 

8slim

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8-9 and just missing out on a playoff spot.

I'd like to be more optimistic, but I really think this team is going to desperately miss McDaniels.
I’m terrible at predictions but I may have got this season right. Hopefully we find a way to win at least 2 of the last 4 and I’m wrong.
 
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They’ll beat LV now, and I think get Miami as well. Tua can’t beat them every game. I think they’ll play up to Cincy too. 10-7 would still not shock me. But none of the games will be easy or comfortable (or very aesthetic) and they’ll probably need some turnovers and/or special teams plays.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I picked 9 or 10 wins, which the Pats have a decent shot at, and yet this season has felt like a total trashfire.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
20,056
I picked 9 or 10 wins, which the Pats have a decent shot at, and yet this season has felt like a total trashfire.
That's how it is with this team, and how fortunate we are. 9 wins IS basically a dumpster fire for them. That's how good they've been in the BB era. Other teams' dumpster fires are true nightmare scenarios. For this team under BB, even a terrible year is better than half the teams in the league.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
5,098
from the wilds of western ma
I’m a little more bullish than others. 11-6, wildcard, with a chance to be a tough out in the playoffs. It’ll depend on further development from Mack, but I expect that. And I think the offensive coaching staff criticisms are overblown. Judge and Patricia are experienced, professional coaches. And there’s an ocean of institutional knowledge there with BB, to keep things on track from a coaching standpoint. Good running back group, solid enough receiver and TE group, and I expect the O line to jell. Defense is a bit of a crapshoot with the personnel changes, but there’s talent at all three levels. And I like the move to more speed in the front 7. Lastly, and not to be underestimated, they have an outstanding kicker. Certainly some holes and questions, and they’re not on the KC/Buffalo/Denver level. But I expect a fun season and a dangerous team.
They could still theoretically finish with the record I predicted, but I was obviously dead wrong about the offensive coaching, and the o line gelling. Realistically, I think they split the last 4, finish 9-8, and are just out of the last wildcard spot. With much work needing to be done this coming off season on the offensive side of the ball.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,387
Dallas
Flip Chicago and Indy and you nailed the first 13 games. Hope you’re wrong on the final 4…
they are +1 @ the Raiders, +3 vs the Bengals, -2.5 vs Miami, and +8 @ Buffalo

So they can definitely go 1-3, 2-2, even 3-1! They could of course also go 0-4. I think everything is on the table but 4-0. I lean more 1-3 or 2-2 though. I hope it is enough to get into the playoffs.
 

88 MVP

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 25, 2007
481
WNY
I had them at 11 wins before the season. I didn’t foresee the OL being in shambles and I thought Mac would take a significant step forward in year 2.

I’m expecting 1-3 or 2-2 down the stretch. Even if they go 2-2 and beat LV and Miami, just from messing around with the playoff generator at 538, it’s hard to see them making the playoffs at 9-7 without some big help from Miami, LAC and NYJ. More than likely they would probably need to beat Cincy or Buffalo and get to 10 wins, which just doesn’t seem likely. I’m more hopeful for next season if they can overhaul the OL

If they at least get to 9-7, I’ll hit my preseason over 8.5 wins bet, so I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
27,204
I had 7&11 +/- 2, said I could not seem them getting to 10. Still don’t think they get 10 but better chance now than I thought. My real error was thinking Indy and Zona would be better.