Expectations for the 2022 Pats

2022 Pats Predictions

  • > 12 wins; true contender

    Votes: 3 0.9%
  • 11-12 wins; definite playoff team and fringe contender

    Votes: 61 17.3%
  • 9-10 wins; borderline playoff team and "easy out" if they do make it

    Votes: 171 48.6%
  • 7-8 wins; mostly competitive team but not quite good enough to make the playoffs

    Votes: 87 24.7%
  • 5-6 wins; somewhat competitive but multiple things go wrong and they're a bottom 10 team

    Votes: 26 7.4%
  • < 5 wins; bottom 5 team and total disaster

    Votes: 4 1.1%

  • Total voters
    352
  • Poll closed .

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
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Apr 23, 2010
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from the wilds of western ma
they are +1 @ the Raiders, +3 vs the Bengals, -2.5 vs Miami, and +8 @ Buffalo

So they can definitely go 1-3, 2-2, even 3-1! They could of course also go 0-4. I think everything is on the table but 4-0. I lean more 1-3 or 2-2 though. I hope it is enough to get into the playoffs.
Generally agree with this. I actually expect them to beat LV, and I think Miami is very getable. But Cinnci and Buffalo are just terrible match-ups for them. The one caveat might be if Buffalo is somehow not playing for anything in the final game. Maybe could steal a win, finish with 10, and get in. A major reach, I know. I suspect they'll really be kicking themselves for the complete egg-laying against the Bears, and the badly missed opportunity in Minnesota, unfortunately.
 

Rico Guapo

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Apr 24, 2009
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New England's Rising Star
Just looking at the playoff game last year at Buffalo: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202201150buf.htm#all_vis_snap_counts

KVN played 97% of defensive snaps, Hightower 84%, SlowJuan Williams 74%, Jamie Collins 61%

IMO the defense is immediately better by not having these four on the field and while the loss of JCJ hurts I think they may have hit on Marcus and Jack Jones. Yes there will be growing pains and mental mistakes along the way but as a whole the unit will be much much faster. I'm also cautiously optimistic some of the younger DL and edge players will have more of an impact and take pressure off Judon.
I had them for 11-12 wins because I thought the defense would be much improved (see above from August), little did I know the OL would essentially derail the entire season. I can see them beating the Raiders and the Dolphins but think they'll lose to the Bengals and Bills unless Buffalo is sitting players for that last game, 9-8 or 10-7 in a best case scenario.
 

Obscure Name

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Generally agree with this. I actually expect them to beat LV, and I think Miami is very getable. But Cinnci and Buffalo are just terrible match-ups for them. The one caveat might be if Buffalo is somehow not playing for anything in the final game. Maybe could steal a win, finish with 10, and get in. A major reach, I know. I suspect they'll really be kicking themselves for the complete egg-laying against the Bears, and the badly missed opportunity in Minnesota, unfortunately.
Seems unlikely Buffalo will be playing for nothing. They'll probably have to win out for the 1 seed, and if they fall before that they'll be holding off Miami.
 

BusRaker

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Aug 11, 2006
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they are +1 @ the Raiders, +3 vs the Bengals, -2.5 vs Miami, and +8 @ Buffalo

So they can definitely go 1-3, 2-2, even 3-1! They could of course also go 0-4. I think everything is on the table but 4-0. I lean more 1-3 or 2-2 though. I hope it is enough to get into the playoffs.
edit: covered above
 

cshea

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Unless Buffalo is locked into a playoff seed week 18. I don't see Allen or Milano playing too much in that scenario
It's highly unlikely that Buffalo will be playing for nothing in week 18.They are tied with KC at 10-3, with the Bills holding the H2H so essentially they need to match KC the rest of the way. Remaining schedules:

BUF: Miami (SAT), @ Chicago, @ Cincy, New England
KC: @ Houston, Seattle, Denver, @ Las Vegas

In order for the week 18 game to be meaningless, the Bills would probably need to win their next 3 games have KC lose 1 of theirs. The Bengals also factor in. They are 9-4 and have the head-to-head with KC already so that game against Buffalo could be fore the 1-seed and the bye. If Buffalo loses that game they're back in chase mode.

Just seems like the odds of Buffalo being in a position where the week 18 game is meaningless to them is very, very small.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
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If they stop Adams and Jacobs, I think they beat the Raiders, but I think that game is tougher than folks are giving it credit for. BB has issues against his former underlings at times.

If they get the right weather on Xmas Eve, I think they can beat Cincy. If it's clear, no wind and Burrow has time, they'll lose.

I think they beat Miami, straight up. Miami coming here on New Year's Day, bring it on.

I think Buffalo might not punt.
 

BusRaker

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Aug 11, 2006
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Just seems like the odds of Buffalo being in a position where the week 18 game is meaningless to them is very, very small.
I think it's more likely given KC's cush schedule that the Bills are locked into the #2 seed week 18, especially given their are 5 time slots that week and KC could have already beaten the Raiders. Perhaps this belongs in the AFC playoff picture thread sorry
 

cshea

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I
I think it's more likely given KC's cush schedule that the Bills are locked into the #2 seed week 18, especially given their are 5 time slots that week and KC could have already beaten the Raiders. Perhaps this belongs in the AFC playoff picture thread sorry
That seems more of a long shot. The only way KC can lock up the #1 seed prior to week 18 is by going 3-0 the next 3 weeks and Buffalo going 1-2 or worse over that stretch. I guess the scenario where they are a game behind entering week 18 and KC plays first and wins is possible but that feels like trying to catch a Hail Mary from the scheduling gods.

If Buffalo goes 1-2, it likely means they lost to Miami and Cincy and they are in a dog fight for the division and thus a home game or trying to hold off Cincy for the 2 seed.

Also, in any scenario where Miami or Cincy leap Buffalo, it probably means the Pats lost those games rendering this all moot.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Jul 4, 2006
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That seems more of a long shot. The only way KC can lock up the #1 seed prior to week 18 is by going 3-0 the next 3 weeks and Buffalo going 1-2 or worse over that stretch. I guess the scenario where they are a game behind entering week 18 and KC plays first and wins is possible but that feels like trying to catch a Hail Mary from the scheduling gods.

If Buffalo goes 1-2, it likely means they lost to Miami and Cincy and they are in a dog fight for the division and thus a home game or trying to hold off Cincy for the 2 seed.

Also, in any scenario where Miami or Cincy leap Buffalo, it probably means the Pats lost those games rendering this all moot.
If Cincy also goes 3-0 in that stretch, they're still alive for the 1 since they hold the tiebreaker over KC (and also would over Buffalo). Also, KC is in Vegas Week 18 so there's no scenario where they play before Buffalo and the Bills rest - if Pats-Bills is SNF that obviously means the Bills are playing for something.
 
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SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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Flip Chicago and Indy and you nailed the first 13 games. Hope you’re wrong on the final 4…
Am a little worried now, aren't you? Passing game continues to look like shit. Undisciplined and might not have a lot to play for. Plus now they are going up against good teams and they haven't done well vs good teams this year. That and I wonder if this game leads to a lot of tilt.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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Am a little worried now, aren't you? Passing game continues to look like shit. Undisciplined and might not have a lot to play for. Plus now they are going up against good teams and they haven't done well vs good teams this year. That and I wonder if this game leads to a lot of tilt.
Worried? No. The season is over, and so is the BB era.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Worried? No. The season is over, and so is the BB era.
I don't see any way they beat Cincinnati. I don't see any way they beat Buffalo on the road. And we all know how terrible they've been against Miami in recent years, so even though that game is at home I see very little chance for them in that game either.

7-10 would be an unmitigated disaster for this team.
 

BigJimEd

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Jan 4, 2002
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I don't see any way they beat Cincinnati. I don't see any way they beat Buffalo on the road. And we all know how terrible they've been against Miami in recent years, so even though that game is at home I see very little chance for them in that game either.

7-10 would be an unmitigated disaster for this team.
7-10 is certainly possible if not probable. Why unmitigated disaster though? Based on losing out or expectations going in? 1/3 of the poll thought 7-8 wins or less. Nearly half predicted 9-10 so not that far off.

I personally didn't expect much more but still it will feel disappointing if this team does finish 7-10. Some frustrating losses so far.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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7-10 is certainly possible if not probable. Why unmitigated disaster though? Based on losing out or expectations going in? 1/3 of the poll thought 7-8 wins or less. Nearly half predicted 9-10 so not that far off.

I personally didn't expect much more but still it will feel disappointing if this team does finish 7-10. Some frustrating losses so far.
After going 10-7 last year and making the playoffs, it would have been fair to expect improvement from that and make the playoffs again and this time win a game.

It's not happening.
 

BigJimEd

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Jan 4, 2002
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After going 10-7 last year and making the playoffs, it would have been fair to expect improvement from that and make the playoffs again and this time win a game.

It's not happening.
Fair point. I thought they over achieved last year so regression was very possible. Still, I'll feel a little disappointed even if they do meet my expectations going into the season.
 

jsinger121

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Jul 25, 2005
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7-10 will look a lot worse in my opinion because they took zero steps forward on the offensive side of the ball. The team is more of a 5-6 win team talent wise.
 

8slim

has trust issues
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7-10 will look a lot worse in my opinion because they took zero steps forward on the offensive side of the ball. The team is more of a 5-6 win team talent wise.
Agreed. Rhamondre and D. Harris are the only two players on that entire unit that can be considered weapons. Everyone else is JAG or worse. Bill's FA spree last offseason was a disaster. In retrospect he approached it like I approach my fantasy draft -- little preparation, pick the guys who had good stats the season prior. The decision to bring back T. Brown and flip-flop him and Wynn was a disaster. They're both terrible. Picking Strange in the 1st round was a bad decision. He's OK, at times, but he didn't need to be taken in the 1st round. Thompson seems to be continuing our long tradition of making the wrong choice at WR. Parker, even when healthy, has been underwhelming. The O is a train wreck, and he put one of the least respected coaches in the league in charge of it.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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They are much worse than last year. They don’t really have a good win this year. The schedule may be flattering too. I don’t think they beat the Steelers now and even the Lions would be dicey.
 

lexrageorge

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Agreed. Rhamondre and D. Harris are the only two players on that entire unit that can be considered weapons. Everyone else is JAG or worse. Bill's FA spree last offseason was a disaster. In retrospect he approached it like I approach my fantasy draft -- little preparation, pick the guys who had good stats the season prior. The decision to bring back T. Brown and flip-flop him and Wynn was a disaster. They're both terrible. Picking Strange in the 1st round was a bad decision. He's OK, at times, but he didn't need to be taken in the 1st round. Thompson seems to be continuing our long tradition of making the wrong choice at WR. Parker, even when healthy, has been underwhelming. The O is a train wreck, and he put one of the least respected coaches in the league in charge of it.
Both Strange and Trent Brown played very well yesterday.
 

Salva135

Cassandra
Oct 19, 2008
1,599
Boston
Biggest concern is that no questions will be answered about Mac or the coaching staff. BB will just roll this all back, with a few cosmetic changes. Maybe Patricia gets demoted and someone else within the org gets the bump, but that's all they do and call it a day. I can see it happening.
 

8slim

has trust issues
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Both Strange and Trent Brown played very well yesterday.
Yay? Strange has been inconsistent, which one would expect for a rookie. My point is that he was likely overdrafted. I'm not privy to other draft boards, but it sure seemed like most folks in the know thought he'd go at least a couple dozen picks later.

Brown has been awful this year. I'm glad he finally had one good game.
 

Garshaparra

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Feb 27, 2008
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I don't see any way they beat Cincinnati. I don't see any way they beat Buffalo on the road. And we all know how terrible they've been against Miami in recent years, so even though that game is at home I see very little chance for them in that game either.

7-10 would be an unmitigated disaster for this team.
7-10 is what I called preseason, and I wouldn't call it a disaster. The 2nd half of last year, and this year's preseason, showed the limits of this team as assembled and coached. In past years, top coaches were able to make chicken salad and "coach up" lesser players, knowing they had a hyper-accurate, ultra-competitive QB at the helm. Since then, we've downgraded the coaches and the QB. Mac Jones seems pretty competitive, but his arm, vision and accuracy are far worse than league average starters, let alone Brady. The coaches on the D side seem to be doing pretty well, but on the offense, that's a total nightmare. And indeed, that's the biggest change from 2021 to 2022.

To that end, I would not fire Belichick. However, I would require him to hire a GM going forward. I would absolutely fire Matty P and Judge immediately after the offseason, and seek out an actual OC, with title and assistant head coach responsibilities.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Biggest concern is that no questions will be answered about Mac or the coaching staff. BB will just roll this all back, with a few cosmetic changes. Maybe Patricia gets demoted and someone else within the org gets the bump, but that's all they do and call it a day. I can see it happening.
Absolutely. The difference is that the In BB I Trust crowd (of which I have been a prominent member) is dwindling, and if they basically just run it back next year they risk the fan base losing interest very quickly. It will be fascinating to see but it’s not just the sports radio crowd that is questioning BB at this point.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
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Absolutely. The difference is that the In BB I Trust crowd (of which I have been a prominent member) is dwindling, and if they basically just run it back next year they risk the fan base losing interest very quickly. It will be fascinating to see but it’s not just the sports radio crowd that is questioning BB at this point.
In Bill I Trust has been a good mantra but it's not completely descriptive of how those of us in that category are actually feeling.

My fundamental thought is that rebuilding after a dynasty if difficult business in the NFL and you can ask fans of a lot of franchises about that. Add to it that there are a couple of transcendent franchises in the NFL now -- and the AFC in particular. The Patriots are a long way from being "back" in the way we want them to be "back." There is a cost to dynasties. It would be interesting to see a graph of average round by round draft pick for the past 10, 20 years, whatever.

So, the question for me is what is the best option at this point in time. Coaching turnover is hard and can send you down a difficult path for cycles. And the upside here for the next couple of years is not dramatic. Whether you fully trust in Belichick or think he has lost his fastball or even are on the fence, I hope you'd realize that the guy has got some chops. We've seen pretty significant indications of that even this year.

Last year was a playoff year. This year has been a team that has regressed and has had some really un-Belichick like moments. They tried a lot. Much of it went wrong -- both macro (Patricia), medium (Trent Browns), and micro (Jakobi yesterday). As awful as this makes us fans feel, it's making Bill feel 100 times worse. The guy understands his responsibility to the franchise and its fans and its owner. Just because he doesn't say that in press conferences doesn't mean it's not true.

I'm actually looking forward to what he tries to do about it. Because he very well may be the best coach of all time and I'd like to see what he comes up with. And it's not like the options out there are so much better. And I still have a warm feeling in my belly from the dynasty. Maybe it will set us back when we should be moving forward. Or maybe he will find a way to leave the franchise in good shape for the next guy. I'm not betting against him, for sure, and willing to take a chance. Because if it doesn't work, it's hardly like it was some guarantee that plan B would have been better. History shows it probably wouldn't have been.