This time I'm going with a poll. Or, rather, a few polls. Lot's of options to consider and I'll try to include them all, but "other" will be one of the choices in the likely event that I do miss one or more options. I'm enabling multiple answers in the second two questions. I tried to stick with players who have had actual industry sources (national or local reporters with actual connections to the teams) mention them or at least their teams in something other than a "Wouldn't this make sense?" tweet or article. So no Sale listed, no option to trade for Clayton Kershaw, either. Anibal Sanchez might be pushing it, but I included him because it does make a little sense for the Tigers to be shopping him considering the potential return. Same goes for Cueto. I don't think either are likely to be moved, but reasonable minds can disagree there.
This will be a long post, but I wanted to present this thread in a way that encourages discussion so that we have more than just poll results. Also, my top preference would be to sign Lester for 6/140 or so, but going beyond that is very likely a bad idea, hence the thread. If Lester will sign for 6/140, it trumps any option I have listed here, IMO, and signing Lester would not preclude them from making one of these moves anyway.
TL
R version is I'd prefer Shields and Tyson Ross and believe they could be had for a reasonable cost in dollars and prospects (respectively). After that I'd like to see some spring training invites or minor league contracts used on guys like Medlen or Beachy as low risk high reward filler on the 40 man roster which would free up some trade chips to enhance the bullpen.
That said, it's looking increasingly possible that he doesn't return to Boston, so...
For me it comes down to risk tolerance on free agent contracts and what I'm willing to part with and that list is probably smaller than it is for some here. I'm not willing to trade one of Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart for a pitcher given the wealth of names available right now. The difference between, say, Shields and Tyson Ross at the front of the rotation and something like Hamels and Scherzer isn't big enough to be worth including one of those three. Outside of that, however, anything is game. I'd prefer to not move Devers because... well, he's my binky. I think he's going to be a monster, but he's too far away for me to say that as anything more than a feeling at this point.
With that general framework to work around and some restrictions in place based on what I think is realistic, here's how I see the team approaching a Jon Lesterless Red Sox Nation.
My top options in order of preference:
1. James Shields - He hasn't been a great post season performer and he's not quite on the level of Jon Lester, but he just led a team to the World Series. He's a very good pitcher and should be paid like one. The elite guys are getting at least 5 and 6 years for 22-25 million per. Scherzer might get more. Shields can be had for 4 years at 18-20 million. If you are guaranteeing only 3, it's going to be 20 and will probably require a vesting option for a 4th year. That would be fine with me. Maybe 4 at 18 guaranteed is necessary, and I'd go that far, but would be much happier with the first option.
2. Tyson Ross - I think his improvement is real and sustainable. Check out this article for more on why. I also think he can be had for a package of Cespedes, Owens and some mid tier prospects. Maybe they are more interested in Margot than Owens. They can have one, not both. Again, my concept of prospect value in the real world is different than what some here subscribe to, and that's fine. I don't think we're getting a player like Ross for something like Marrero, Ranaudo and Rijo. I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see it. Ross is a really really good pitcher and the Padres needs some real value to be convinced to move him. I'm willing to give up some real quality to get him because of how high I am on him.
3. Jeff Samardzija - He's been one of the best pitchers in the majors over the last three years he's 29th in FIP, 15th in xFIP and the 33rd best K/BB rate. His K/9 over that span is 10th. He's not an Ace (with a capital A) but he's a number 1 on most teams. I'd rather have the years of control on Ross, partly because I think the cost would be similar. That said, Samardzija is an excellent pitcher and would be a fine anchor for the staff next year.
4. Brandon McCarthy - 2 years and 15 per with a vesting option for a third year at the same AAV might get it done. Maybe they have to go something like the fabled 3/39. Either way, he's a very good pitcher who is underrated and a combination of him and one of the above two would combine with in house options to field a very respectable rotation without giving up a ton of prospects or getting locked into a long term deal for a guy who will be significantly overpaid in 4 or 5 years.
5. Mat Latos - Trading a combination of Cespedes and some of our non-elite prospects (the three listed above plus Owens, Devers, Margot and Rodriguez) is probably possible given Latos' injury troubles this year. He'd be a fine number 2 behind Shields, IMO. Maybe we take on a contract they want to move to keep one of the elite prospects out of the deal. His FIP and xFIP last year might suggest he's not quite up to the task of being a number 2 on a contending team but his ERA- was 88. His 3.25 ERA had some good luck in it (low BABIP for example), but he's just entering his prime and has been a very durable and excellent pitcher for most of his career. With Cingrani waiting to slip into the back of the rotation, they might not even suffer too much of a loss of production in the rotation by moving him.
6. Hisashi Iwakuma - He seems to be a bit undervalued, so I imagine a package built around Cespedes and a couple of non-elite prospects would get it done. There are some warning signs with him, but as a number two the team could do far worse. A 3.25 FIP and a 2.87 xFIP suggest he was a little unlucky last year, and a .287 BABIP is actually a little higher than his career .271. Yes, he did all that in a pitcher's haven out in Seattle, and can be expected to see those numbers come up in Fenway, but 90 and 88 ERA-'s over the last two seasons show him to be a very good option for a number 2 starter, regardless of his home ballpark. I take Latos over him because of the age difference, but it's a close call.
7. Rick Porcello - He's entering his age 26 season and just had his best year as a pro. He's had positive trends in his FIP and xFIP over the last four years, has draft pedigree, and looks like he's poised to take another step forward. He's probably a pretty good bet for a number 2, especially if the acquisition cost isn't that high. The Tigers are probably looking for an outfielder, so it makes sense that Cespedes' name keeps getting brought up. I'm not sure I'd part with Owens, Devers, Margot or Rodriguez to land him, but that could mean the Tigers go elsewhere for a deal. Cespedes for Porcello is probably pretty close to fair value, though, since Porcello is a free agent after next year. If it takes Cespedes and someone like Rijo or Ranaudo, I'm happy to make that swap.
8. Zack Greinke - Greinke is under control through 2018 at an AAV of 23.5 million. He'll be in his age 31-34 seasons and probably won't decline a huge amount by the end of it. He is what many people considered Hamels to be before talk of picking up his option started. Reasonable years for market rate. As such, he'll be expensive, but I don't think he'll cost one of my three no-no's. The Dodgers will have zero interest in Cespedes, but a package of Owens and Margot with some mid tier prospects might be enough. Greinke tends to fluctuate between very good and elite and could be a solid number 1 if they can land him. There has been a lot of talk about his issues with anxiety, but he's been very steady since getting help for it and that's a reason to believe he wouldn't crumble under the pressure of the Boston fanbase and media. Playing in LA is not the same as playing in Boston, so I would be a little hesitant, especially if you are bringing him in to anchor the staff, but his talent is really enticing. He falls near the bottom of this list because of those questions, but depending on the cost it may well be worth that risk.
The best pitchers they can't or won't pony up for (in no particular order):
Cole Hamels - I don't think he can be had without including one of my three off limits guys, so that's out. If he can be traded for with Owens as the centerpiece, I'm all for it, but I just don't think Amaro is going to bring the price down that low, mostly because he's unreasonable at the best of times. That's not to say I think he's worth more than a package built around Owens. I just don't see it costing that "little." I get that people think even Owens is an overpay based on the value of a win and estimations about what top prospects cost, I just happen to disagree that the theoretical value of a prospect is similar to the real world value of a prospect when GM's discuss trades.
Max Scherzer - He's going to be too expensive. If Lester goes for more than the team can live with paying, there is no way they will agree to pay what Scherzer is asking.
Johnny Cueto - I find it hard to believe that the Reds are interested in moving him for anything less than a significant overpay. He's their best pitcher and is still young enough that he could lead them through the end of this window and possibly into the next. They have a bunch of good bounce back candidates and could very well be a contender in the Central next year even without adding anything to the lineup. I don't think they are going to balk at extending him and thus don't think they really want to move him short of an offer that includes one of my three untouchables and probably one of Margot, Devers, Owens, or Rodriguez. He's one of the top pitchers in the game and the Reds will have to be blown away to pull the trigger.
David Price - He'll cost too much in prospects if he's actually traded. The Tigers have a window right now and Price makes them much more likely to win it all next year. They are probably better off, given their roster and contract situation, letting Price pitch for them next year and collecting the pick when he departs. Generally speaking, building to make the playoffs more often, even at the expense of increasing your odds this season is the way to go in MLB, but for the Tigers I think a GFIN approach makes sense. Because of that, I would expect it to cost one of the untouchables.
Anibal Sanchez - This is another guy I would imagine costs too much to be worth it. He's a pretty good value for the Tigers and he's a major part of why they are still one of the favorites to make a title run next year even after losing Scherzer. It doesn't make sense for them to move him without being blown away which means including Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart. No thanks. I love Sanchez and would be thrilled to see him back with the Red Sox organization, but I can't imagine him going for something like Cespedes, Owens and a mid tier prospect like Rijo.
Zimmerman/Fister - I don't see a match for a trade that doesn't involve Betts, so I'm passing on either.
Ideally, I'd love to see Shields and Ross, but any combination of the eight guys I listed makes them a playoff contender, IMO. Add in some spring training invites or minor league contracts to guys like Medlen or Beachy as a low risk high reward back end filler on the 40 man roster and I think you have a very solid rotation with some great depth and a chance for a high upside reward to pay off making the rotation that much better. Yes, I'd love it to have two of Lester, Scherzer and Cueto there, but it's just not realistic and honestly, I don't think it's necessary for them to win a title in the next few years.
This will be a long post, but I wanted to present this thread in a way that encourages discussion so that we have more than just poll results. Also, my top preference would be to sign Lester for 6/140 or so, but going beyond that is very likely a bad idea, hence the thread. If Lester will sign for 6/140, it trumps any option I have listed here, IMO, and signing Lester would not preclude them from making one of these moves anyway.
TL
R version is I'd prefer Shields and Tyson Ross and believe they could be had for a reasonable cost in dollars and prospects (respectively). After that I'd like to see some spring training invites or minor league contracts used on guys like Medlen or Beachy as low risk high reward filler on the 40 man roster which would free up some trade chips to enhance the bullpen.That said, it's looking increasingly possible that he doesn't return to Boston, so...
For me it comes down to risk tolerance on free agent contracts and what I'm willing to part with and that list is probably smaller than it is for some here. I'm not willing to trade one of Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart for a pitcher given the wealth of names available right now. The difference between, say, Shields and Tyson Ross at the front of the rotation and something like Hamels and Scherzer isn't big enough to be worth including one of those three. Outside of that, however, anything is game. I'd prefer to not move Devers because... well, he's my binky. I think he's going to be a monster, but he's too far away for me to say that as anything more than a feeling at this point.
With that general framework to work around and some restrictions in place based on what I think is realistic, here's how I see the team approaching a Jon Lesterless Red Sox Nation.
My top options in order of preference:
1. James Shields - He hasn't been a great post season performer and he's not quite on the level of Jon Lester, but he just led a team to the World Series. He's a very good pitcher and should be paid like one. The elite guys are getting at least 5 and 6 years for 22-25 million per. Scherzer might get more. Shields can be had for 4 years at 18-20 million. If you are guaranteeing only 3, it's going to be 20 and will probably require a vesting option for a 4th year. That would be fine with me. Maybe 4 at 18 guaranteed is necessary, and I'd go that far, but would be much happier with the first option.
2. Tyson Ross - I think his improvement is real and sustainable. Check out this article for more on why. I also think he can be had for a package of Cespedes, Owens and some mid tier prospects. Maybe they are more interested in Margot than Owens. They can have one, not both. Again, my concept of prospect value in the real world is different than what some here subscribe to, and that's fine. I don't think we're getting a player like Ross for something like Marrero, Ranaudo and Rijo. I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see it. Ross is a really really good pitcher and the Padres needs some real value to be convinced to move him. I'm willing to give up some real quality to get him because of how high I am on him.
3. Jeff Samardzija - He's been one of the best pitchers in the majors over the last three years he's 29th in FIP, 15th in xFIP and the 33rd best K/BB rate. His K/9 over that span is 10th. He's not an Ace (with a capital A) but he's a number 1 on most teams. I'd rather have the years of control on Ross, partly because I think the cost would be similar. That said, Samardzija is an excellent pitcher and would be a fine anchor for the staff next year.
4. Brandon McCarthy - 2 years and 15 per with a vesting option for a third year at the same AAV might get it done. Maybe they have to go something like the fabled 3/39. Either way, he's a very good pitcher who is underrated and a combination of him and one of the above two would combine with in house options to field a very respectable rotation without giving up a ton of prospects or getting locked into a long term deal for a guy who will be significantly overpaid in 4 or 5 years.
5. Mat Latos - Trading a combination of Cespedes and some of our non-elite prospects (the three listed above plus Owens, Devers, Margot and Rodriguez) is probably possible given Latos' injury troubles this year. He'd be a fine number 2 behind Shields, IMO. Maybe we take on a contract they want to move to keep one of the elite prospects out of the deal. His FIP and xFIP last year might suggest he's not quite up to the task of being a number 2 on a contending team but his ERA- was 88. His 3.25 ERA had some good luck in it (low BABIP for example), but he's just entering his prime and has been a very durable and excellent pitcher for most of his career. With Cingrani waiting to slip into the back of the rotation, they might not even suffer too much of a loss of production in the rotation by moving him.
6. Hisashi Iwakuma - He seems to be a bit undervalued, so I imagine a package built around Cespedes and a couple of non-elite prospects would get it done. There are some warning signs with him, but as a number two the team could do far worse. A 3.25 FIP and a 2.87 xFIP suggest he was a little unlucky last year, and a .287 BABIP is actually a little higher than his career .271. Yes, he did all that in a pitcher's haven out in Seattle, and can be expected to see those numbers come up in Fenway, but 90 and 88 ERA-'s over the last two seasons show him to be a very good option for a number 2 starter, regardless of his home ballpark. I take Latos over him because of the age difference, but it's a close call.
7. Rick Porcello - He's entering his age 26 season and just had his best year as a pro. He's had positive trends in his FIP and xFIP over the last four years, has draft pedigree, and looks like he's poised to take another step forward. He's probably a pretty good bet for a number 2, especially if the acquisition cost isn't that high. The Tigers are probably looking for an outfielder, so it makes sense that Cespedes' name keeps getting brought up. I'm not sure I'd part with Owens, Devers, Margot or Rodriguez to land him, but that could mean the Tigers go elsewhere for a deal. Cespedes for Porcello is probably pretty close to fair value, though, since Porcello is a free agent after next year. If it takes Cespedes and someone like Rijo or Ranaudo, I'm happy to make that swap.
8. Zack Greinke - Greinke is under control through 2018 at an AAV of 23.5 million. He'll be in his age 31-34 seasons and probably won't decline a huge amount by the end of it. He is what many people considered Hamels to be before talk of picking up his option started. Reasonable years for market rate. As such, he'll be expensive, but I don't think he'll cost one of my three no-no's. The Dodgers will have zero interest in Cespedes, but a package of Owens and Margot with some mid tier prospects might be enough. Greinke tends to fluctuate between very good and elite and could be a solid number 1 if they can land him. There has been a lot of talk about his issues with anxiety, but he's been very steady since getting help for it and that's a reason to believe he wouldn't crumble under the pressure of the Boston fanbase and media. Playing in LA is not the same as playing in Boston, so I would be a little hesitant, especially if you are bringing him in to anchor the staff, but his talent is really enticing. He falls near the bottom of this list because of those questions, but depending on the cost it may well be worth that risk.
The best pitchers they can't or won't pony up for (in no particular order):
Cole Hamels - I don't think he can be had without including one of my three off limits guys, so that's out. If he can be traded for with Owens as the centerpiece, I'm all for it, but I just don't think Amaro is going to bring the price down that low, mostly because he's unreasonable at the best of times. That's not to say I think he's worth more than a package built around Owens. I just don't see it costing that "little." I get that people think even Owens is an overpay based on the value of a win and estimations about what top prospects cost, I just happen to disagree that the theoretical value of a prospect is similar to the real world value of a prospect when GM's discuss trades.
Max Scherzer - He's going to be too expensive. If Lester goes for more than the team can live with paying, there is no way they will agree to pay what Scherzer is asking.
Johnny Cueto - I find it hard to believe that the Reds are interested in moving him for anything less than a significant overpay. He's their best pitcher and is still young enough that he could lead them through the end of this window and possibly into the next. They have a bunch of good bounce back candidates and could very well be a contender in the Central next year even without adding anything to the lineup. I don't think they are going to balk at extending him and thus don't think they really want to move him short of an offer that includes one of my three untouchables and probably one of Margot, Devers, Owens, or Rodriguez. He's one of the top pitchers in the game and the Reds will have to be blown away to pull the trigger.
David Price - He'll cost too much in prospects if he's actually traded. The Tigers have a window right now and Price makes them much more likely to win it all next year. They are probably better off, given their roster and contract situation, letting Price pitch for them next year and collecting the pick when he departs. Generally speaking, building to make the playoffs more often, even at the expense of increasing your odds this season is the way to go in MLB, but for the Tigers I think a GFIN approach makes sense. Because of that, I would expect it to cost one of the untouchables.
Anibal Sanchez - This is another guy I would imagine costs too much to be worth it. He's a pretty good value for the Tigers and he's a major part of why they are still one of the favorites to make a title run next year even after losing Scherzer. It doesn't make sense for them to move him without being blown away which means including Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart. No thanks. I love Sanchez and would be thrilled to see him back with the Red Sox organization, but I can't imagine him going for something like Cespedes, Owens and a mid tier prospect like Rijo.
Zimmerman/Fister - I don't see a match for a trade that doesn't involve Betts, so I'm passing on either.
Ideally, I'd love to see Shields and Ross, but any combination of the eight guys I listed makes them a playoff contender, IMO. Add in some spring training invites or minor league contracts to guys like Medlen or Beachy as a low risk high reward back end filler on the 40 man roster and I think you have a very solid rotation with some great depth and a chance for a high upside reward to pay off making the rotation that much better. Yes, I'd love it to have two of Lester, Scherzer and Cueto there, but it's just not realistic and honestly, I don't think it's necessary for them to win a title in the next few years.
