Fangraphs write up on the Red Sox system

[MakMan44]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-boston-red-sox/
 
I don't know how many people are aware of this but Fangraphs recently hired Kiley McDaniel, a scout, and he's been doing write ups in reserve order. The Red Sox piece went up today. At the top of the article there's links where he explains scouting in detail as well as hitting. 

 

[soxhop411]

This deserves to be on the main board so it gets more clicks. Amazing work by fangraphs

 

[LondonSox]

Really great must read for any farm follower, and accessible enough for those who don't, and teh scouting links are a great guide for themt oo.
Really fantastic stuff.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Some excellent information in this article. Be sure to follow the links. 
 
Moving to the main board.

 

[Sausage in Section 17]

The "Scouting Explained" link is one of the most informative pieces about baseball I've ever read. Kudos.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Great stuff and I love that Kiley is not afraid to point out where he differs from other scouts, often writing that other scouts have a guy ranked higher than he (she?) does. I love KLaw but that's always been an issue I've had with him, he acts like he has no idea how others rank these guys, which is just highly unlikely.

 

[FelixMantilla]

Agree with the others, this is great stuff.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Nice succinct writeup on Escobar that confirms my sense that he is, in essence, Felix Doubront's second coming (and hey, maybe the second time will be the charm).

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Another thanks for posting. Great read.

 

[bellowthecat]

Really enjoyed reading this.  I think the biggest surprise to me was that he seems pretty high on Cecchini, saying "his smooth, low-effort left-handed swing has been consistent level-t0-level and will make him a lot of money."  Here's hoping!

 

[strek1]

VERY good report. Some surprises but mostly pleasant ones. Looks strong going forward.

 

[rodderick]

Nice succinct writeup on Escobar that confirms my sense that he is, in essence, Felix Doubront's second coming (and hey, maybe the second time will be the charm).

 
If he's Felix Doubront with slightly better command and a markedly better attitude, that's a pretty good asset to have.

 

[The Long Tater]

Excellent material.  Gives something to look forward to.

 

[jscola85]

Nice succinct writeup on Escobar that confirms my sense that he is, in essence, Felix Doubront's second coming (and hey, maybe the second time will be the charm).

 
If he has a better attitude than Felix, he might turn into a valuable bullpen weapon.  Our 'pen needs almost as much of a makeover as the rotation.

 

[jscola85]

Additionally, McDaniel has the Sox with 8 prospects with a 50+ grade and another 10 with a 45+ grade; the Astros had 8 50+ and 8 45+, the Twins 7 50+ and 7 45+, the D-Backs 5 50+ and 7 45+; the Rockies 8 50+ and 5 45+; the Rangers 11 50+ and 7 45+.  So overall, it looks like Kiley (so far) only rates the Rangers system as better than the Sox and right in line with the Astros.

 

[MakMan44]

There was a follow today, based on the top 5 prospects by projected WAR.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-five-red-sox-prospects-by-projected-war/

 

[jscola85]

It would be nice if Brentz could eventually become a young, better-fielding Jonny Gomes, like the Fangraphs projections seem to indicate.

 

[IpswichSox]

Wow, this is really great stuff.  Very helpful and good insights into what scouts are looking at.

 

[Fireball Fred]

Excellent, I agree, and also encouraging after '14 performances cast some doubt on how good the system really is.

 

[Laser Show]

It would be nice if Brentz could eventually become a young, better-fielding Jonny Gomes, like the Fangraphs projections seem to indicate.

I just made the connection that Brentz and Nava could probably make a pretty nice platoon at some point. Too bad Brentz has lost so much time to injury and has only just started getting MLB at bats.

 

[soxfan121]

I'm not the only one who noticed the typos, right? ;-)

 

[jscola85]

I just made the connection that Brentz and Nava could probably make a pretty nice platoon at some point. Too bad Brentz has lost so much time to injury and has only just started getting MLB at bats.

 
If there weren't already a logjam of corner OFs on this team, I'd totally agree.  They would be a great, cheap solution in LF.  Unfortunately, we also have Craig, Victorino, Castillo, Cespedes, Betts, Holt, JBJ, etc. vying for time in the outfield.  Too many bodies.  He'd be a nice piece for an NL team as a pinch hitter and lefty masher - perhaps a sweetener in a Hamels deal?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
If there weren't already a logjam of corner OFs on this team, I'd totally agree.  They would be a great, cheap solution in LF.  Unfortunately, we also have Craig, Victorino, Castillo, Cespedes, Betts, Holt, JBJ, etc. vying for time in the outfield.  Too many bodies.  He'd be a nice piece for an NL team as a pinch hitter and lefty masher - perhaps a sweetener in a Hamels deal?

 
The other issue there is that the window on a Brentz/Nava platoon is pretty short, with Nava now entering his age-32 season. It's too soon to tell if Nava's 2014 was the beginning of decline or just a random dip, but either way, he probably won't be a good enough hitter to carry the long side of a LF platoon for long, even if he still is now.

 

[jscola85]

 
The other issue there is that the window on a Brentz/Nava platoon is pretty short, with Nava now entering his age-32 season. It's too soon to tell if Nava's 2014 was the beginning of decline or just a random dip, but either way, he probably won't be a good enough hitter to carry the long side of a LF platoon for long, even if he still is now.

 
After his call-up, he had a 775 OPS by my quick math.  I know you can't just ignore the suckitude before he was sent to Pawtucket, but it seems like he fixed whatever the issue was.  I feel pretty good he's going to be a solid, OBP-heavy 775+ OPS hitter against righties for the next two years at least.  I do agree though the Nava/Brentz platoon is a short window - even if Nava is productive, he'll start to get expensive before too long.
 
EDIT - clarification.

 

[Drek717]

 
If there weren't already a logjam of corner OFs on this team, I'd totally agree.  They would be a great, cheap solution in LF.  Unfortunately, we also have Craig, Victorino, Castillo, Cespedes, Betts, Holt, JBJ, etc. vying for time in the outfield.  Too many bodies.  He'd be a nice piece for an NL team as a pinch hitter and lefty masher - perhaps a sweetener in a Hamels deal?

I don't think it would be too hard to hang onto Brentz through 2015 and see him as a 4th OF/platoon partner in 2016 what with Victorino being done, Cespedes only having one year left on his contract, and everyone else being a total question mark at this point except for Betts.
 
If the Sox go with a longer term solution at 3B either via trade or a bigger FA contract (such as Sandoval) I could see them rolling into 2016 with a Cecchini/Brentz platoon in LF working under the plan that they would still have two options years (2015 and 2016) on Bradley and that Margot would quite possibly already be in AAA by then and a candidate for a mid-season call up if all other options fail to pan out.  We've likely got two OF spots locked up long term now with Castillo and Betts.  If they play well in 2015 it would make being patient with the ample reserves on the farm for the third spot pretty easy.

 

[lxt]

Most enjoyable ... thank you Mak for the posting.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Here is a FanGraphs Podcast with the guy who did the write-up.  They talk about general scouting for the first 25 minutes or so and then get into the Red Sox.  
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-kiley-mcdaniels-catalog-of-disappointments/
 
Those of you who want to skip ahead to the highlights:
 
Eduardo Rodriguez 27:30-
Vote was split inside Sox front office on who is better Owens or EdRod.  
Mentions of Brian Johnson/Henry Owens ~30:00
Garin Cecchini 32:30 - Talking how our rookies tanked and how Sox don't want to rely on rooks like this year.
JBJ 33:30 - 
 
They go on scouting tangents and I don't think I learned much about particular Sox prospects more than what most of you guys probably know already that follow the system.  By about 35:00 or so they move to the Cubs.  The written article covers all the Sox prospects; the podcast doesn't cover that much.  You can probably skip it if you read the article.  
 
EDIT: At ~46:00, he discusses Chavis as a catcher.  Caught an inning in a showcase.  Chavis said he would play C if a team drafted him for that.  Great makeup and will do anything you ask.  Sox have no interest in him catching.  

 

[Fireball Fred]

The trouble with Brentz, as I understand it, is that he's pretty much limited to LF. A guy like that who is not quite good enough to be a satisfactory regular probably shouldn't make the roster of a contending team unless he also may have a significant role as a PH/DH. He's "above replacement level" but still an AAAA player. Nava, a switch hitter who can fill in at RF and 1B, has much more value.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So when did Brentz go from having a "plus arm" that made him "[p]rofile as a major league right fielder" (SoxProspects, language still there in their profile) to having a "fringy arm" that limits him to left field, as the FG article says? Did something happen to his arm at some point? Or was the SP profile always FOS? Or is the FG profile FOS now?

 

[MakMan44]

I think Kiley does a chat sometime during the week. I want to say Friday, but I don't think he did one this past week. If you can't find an answer before then, you can always try to ask him. 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

It was a Sox scout that said Brentz' arm wasn't plus anymore.  I remember a game in September where he threw one from left and it was a bad and weak throw and I thought "hmm, I thought he was supposed to have a good arm. I guess not."

 

[Drek717]

So when did Brentz go from having a "plus arm" that made him "[p]rofile as a major league right fielder" (SoxProspects, language still there in their profile) to having a "fringy arm" that limits him to left field, as the FG article says? Did something happen to his arm at some point? Or was the SP profile always FOS? Or is the FG profile FOS now?

I wouldn't be surprised if his decline defensively is related to his various leg injuries that have also kept him off the field the last few years.  He shot himself in the leg, then tore the meniscus in his knee, then this past season had a hamstring injury keep him out a good chunk of the season.  That obviously would impinge on his range, but also is very likely to have significantly weakened his throwing mechanics.
 
Allen Craig was a fringe acceptable 3B in the minors who had to move to the OF when he had a few knee injuries in the minors, but looked like a good fielder in RF.  A few more injuries suddenly diminished his range even further, so by the time he really broke through as a hitter he was a limited defender even in the outfield.  I think Brentz is, unfortunately, seeing similar injury related decline to his fielding.  If the bat is legit he's worth having and as long as the Sox are willing to entertain Daniel Nava as an option for LF Brentz is a damn good platoon option to have stashed in AAA, but he is no longer one good AAA season away from being our long term RF like we all thought he could be a couple seasons ago.  The bat is likely there, waiting for a chance to shine, so giving up on him when 1B, DH, and LF could all be available before the club runs out of controlled years on him isn't a good idea but until he gets a real chance to hit in the majors and makes good on it he's the quintessential "deep depth" the FO lives to talk about.
 
 
One thing from the article that I think is worth noting is just how much low minors pitching depth this club has.  The consistent drafting of high upside youngsters and some big international signings have put in the place the groundwork for a promising next wave of young arms.  That with the position player talent pool looking like it has flipped around from a quantity > quality field to having more potentially top tier prospects should pair well with the club's needs once the current AAA/MLB youngsters sort out who's playing where.