Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for the Red Sox are out on Fangraphs.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
Obviously these are just projections (educated guesses) but they are an interesting baseline, and it's fun to look at them and try to project which projections will be close and which will be way off.
His general takes:
Offense:
(Note: these projections don't "add up"-- they are for an individual player, and aren't not supposed to be added up to make team totals.)
Hitters:
Devers: 659 PA, 33 HR, 112 RBI, 135 OPS+
Story: 518 PA, 21 HR, 16 SB, 111 OPS+
Kike: 465 PA, 12 HR, 99 OPS+
Verdugo 601 PA, 13 HR, 113 OPS+
Casas: 414 PA, 14 HR, 113 OPS+
Hosmer: 482 PA, 12 HR, 107 OPS+
Refsnyder 337 PA, 106 OPS+
McGuire 292 PA, .697 OPS
Wong 384 PA .739 OPS
Hoy Park: 447 PA, .706 OPS
Enmanuel Valdez: 525 PA, 18 HR, .739 OPS
Arroyo: 289 PA, 98 OPS+
Rafaela: 528 PA, 15 HR, 14 SB, .713 OPS
Duran: 527 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .714 OPS
Dalbec: 446 PA, 20 HR, .722 OPS
Pitchers:
(the pitching projections seem less interesting-- they're mostly bunched around a 4.25 ERA, plus or minus a half run or so for most guys. Looks like anything under 3.75 is really good, under 4.00 is good, over 4.75 is bad?)
Whitlock: 84 IP, 3.44 ERA
Sale: 82 IP, 3.95
Bello: 135 IP, 3.99
Paxton: 127 IP, 4.05
Pivetta: 151 IP, 4.64
Kutter Crawford: 90 IP, 4.72
Bryan Mata: 85 IP, 4.96
Brandon Walter: 82 IP, 4.28
Chris Murphy: 122 IP, 4.86
Josh Winckowski: 115 IP, 4.92
Conor Seabold: 87 IP, 4.74
Thad Ward: 55 IP, 4.94
Houck: 83 IP, 4.14
Schreiber: 69 IP, 3.67
Barnes: 46 IP, 4.27
Brasier: 48 IP, 4.50
Ort: 55 IP, 4.42
Josh Taylor: 46 IP, 3.94
Joely Rod: 42 IP, 3.61
Zack Kelly: 58 IP, 4.32
Projections for last year's Red Sox/current free agents:
Xander: 622 PA, 20 HR, 124 OPS+
JD: 559 PA, 20 HR, 116 OPS+
Eovaldi: 124 IP, 3.86
Hill: 114 IP, 4.97
Wacha: 110 IP, 4.75
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
Obviously these are just projections (educated guesses) but they are an interesting baseline, and it's fun to look at them and try to project which projections will be close and which will be way off.
His general takes:
Offense:
Pitchers:The floor on the offense is probably fairly high, so I wouldn’t expect them to be as bad as, say, the 2022 Detroit Tigers even if they trade Devers in the offseason, which isn’t an impossibility. ZiPS sees Boston having a good number of stopgappish players who are likely to be well above replacement but unlikely to push the team toward the pennant.
Overall:I wouldn’t call ZiPS “all in” on Brayan Bello, but as with Shane Bieber‘s 2018, the computer saw Bello’s debut in the majors as quite convincing despite the high ERA. ZiPS sees nothing in Bello’s record that deserved a .404 BABIP. In fact, given that position players used as pitchers historically have BABIPs in the .330 range, nobody ever really ought to be a .400 BABIP pitcher. I’m leaving Garrett Whitlock’s usage where it is right now, but ZiPS projects him with an ERA of 4.09 and an ERA+ in the 110 range as a starter, which is where he’s likely to end up. After just 11 starts in three seasons, the Red Sox would likely be overjoyed to get 16 starts from Chris Sale at the projected performance.
Projections:The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them.
(Note: these projections don't "add up"-- they are for an individual player, and aren't not supposed to be added up to make team totals.)
Hitters:
Devers: 659 PA, 33 HR, 112 RBI, 135 OPS+
Story: 518 PA, 21 HR, 16 SB, 111 OPS+
Kike: 465 PA, 12 HR, 99 OPS+
Verdugo 601 PA, 13 HR, 113 OPS+
Casas: 414 PA, 14 HR, 113 OPS+
Hosmer: 482 PA, 12 HR, 107 OPS+
Refsnyder 337 PA, 106 OPS+
McGuire 292 PA, .697 OPS
Wong 384 PA .739 OPS
Hoy Park: 447 PA, .706 OPS
Enmanuel Valdez: 525 PA, 18 HR, .739 OPS
Arroyo: 289 PA, 98 OPS+
Rafaela: 528 PA, 15 HR, 14 SB, .713 OPS
Duran: 527 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .714 OPS
Dalbec: 446 PA, 20 HR, .722 OPS
Pitchers:
(the pitching projections seem less interesting-- they're mostly bunched around a 4.25 ERA, plus or minus a half run or so for most guys. Looks like anything under 3.75 is really good, under 4.00 is good, over 4.75 is bad?)
Whitlock: 84 IP, 3.44 ERA
Sale: 82 IP, 3.95
Bello: 135 IP, 3.99
Paxton: 127 IP, 4.05
Pivetta: 151 IP, 4.64
Kutter Crawford: 90 IP, 4.72
Bryan Mata: 85 IP, 4.96
Brandon Walter: 82 IP, 4.28
Chris Murphy: 122 IP, 4.86
Josh Winckowski: 115 IP, 4.92
Conor Seabold: 87 IP, 4.74
Thad Ward: 55 IP, 4.94
Houck: 83 IP, 4.14
Schreiber: 69 IP, 3.67
Barnes: 46 IP, 4.27
Brasier: 48 IP, 4.50
Ort: 55 IP, 4.42
Josh Taylor: 46 IP, 3.94
Joely Rod: 42 IP, 3.61
Zack Kelly: 58 IP, 4.32
Projections for last year's Red Sox/current free agents:
Xander: 622 PA, 20 HR, 124 OPS+
JD: 559 PA, 20 HR, 116 OPS+
Eovaldi: 124 IP, 3.86
Hill: 114 IP, 4.97
Wacha: 110 IP, 4.75