Farrell hints at potential roster shake up

[O Captain! My Captain!]

If we jettison Ross, we have just one lefty in the pen anyway. Breslow is not a lefty, except in a purely technical sense. He is not tougher on LHH than RHH, either over his career as a whole or right now.

 
This is at the "marginal potential improvements" rather than "roster shakeup" level, but this isn't really true. Both pitchers and hitters have splits. Sure Breslow isn't notably tough on lefties (in fact, if he's no tougher on lefties than righties, he has a significantly more neutral split than the average lefty), but there are still left-handed hitters who can't hit lefties at all. You don't use Breslow for the platoon advantage vs. all lefties, only vs. lefties with major platoon issues. There's still some utility there in that you don't have to burn your other lefty in that case.
 
Obviously if Breslow's cooked he's cooked and you replace him with what's hopefully a better pitcher. But he's not a righty just because he has a neutral platoon split.

 

[grimshaw]

I don't mind keeping Breslow for a bit longer compared to the sucky internal options.  Taz, Koji, Ogando, and Layne are basically one inning guys.  Ross was in that category too  He can at least take his beat downs and get 6 outs in the process.  Plus he has a rubber arm.  We don't know if Wright can bounce back every other day yet.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I would be on board with honestly moving some pieces for Ruiz and Hamels. I think it solves two issues and especially with a staff that needs extra coaching Ruiz is one of those steady hands in the league.

 

[KillerBs]

On the pitching side, I think they need to accept that they won't be getting alot of innings from the starters whoever is in the rotation. Hence the need for long men in the pen ie more than one.

I would like to see before long a starting rotation with Porcello and Buchholz and 3others selected from this long list: Miley, Kelly, Rodriguez, Barnes and Johnson.

The two from this list who are not in the rotation compete with Wright, Breslow, Ross and Masterson for 3 places in pen reserved for long men ie capable of going 3 to 4 IPs periodically as required.

Farrell then works with a real quick hook all year.

For eg the staff could look like:

SP: Porcello, buchholz, kelly, Miley and Rodriguez

Long men: Wright, Masterson and Barnes.

Back end. Ogando, Layne, Tazawa and Koji.

The key is having multiple guys who can go multiple innings on the too frequent occasions where the starters dont have it. Ie 8 guys to get you thru approx 7 innings per day or about 6 innings each per week.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
This is at the "marginal potential improvements" rather than "roster shakeup" level, but this isn't really true. Both pitchers and hitters have splits. Sure Breslow isn't notably tough on lefties (in fact, if he's no tougher on lefties than righties, he has a significantly more neutral split than the average lefty), but there are still left-handed hitters who can't hit lefties at all. You don't use Breslow for the platoon advantage vs. all lefties, only vs. lefties with major platoon issues. There's still some utility there in that you don't have to burn your other lefty in that case.
 
Obviously if Breslow's cooked he's cooked and you replace him with what's hopefully a better pitcher. But he's not a righty just because he has a neutral platoon split.

 
Of course he's not a righty. But the point of having lefties in the bullpen is that they're good at getting lefties out. If they're not better than average at getting lefties out, then they don't have the kind of utility that makes bullpen lefties a specifically valuable commodity. At that point, they're just relievers, and should be judged against all other relievers, without their lefthandedness adding any particular value.
 
Your point about marginal utility against guys who are really atrocious at hitting LHP is interesting, but I'm skeptical about whether it would come into play often enough to matter. It would be an interesting thing to study--mapping LHH with big platoon splits vs. LHP with small or reverse ones.

 

[crystalline]

With Napoli and Vic in particular, we're paying the piper for the midmarket FA approach from 2013.

That's the approach this ownership group has been using the whole time. They have been in on midmarket FAs from Matt Clement to Lackey and Dempster. And from JD Drew and Renteria to Victorino and Lugo. They have been out on top tier FAs like Teixeira, Sabathia, Halladay, Johan Santana, and Pujols.


The front office has clearly decided that top tier FAs carry too much risk, and that they should spend money on the middle market. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but middlemarket FAs are all you are going to get.

 

[jon abbey]

The front office has clearly decided that top tier FAs carry too much risk, and that they should spend money on the middle market. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but middlemarket FAs are all you are going to get.

What about Hanley and Sandoval?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

That's the approach this ownership group has been using the whole time. They have been in on midmarket FAs from Matt Clement to Lackey and Dempster. And from JD Drew and Renteria to Victorino and Lugo. They have been out on top tier FAs like Teixeira, Sabathia, Halladay, Johan Santana, and Pujols.


The front office has clearly decided that top tier FAs carry too much risk, and that they should spend money on the middle market. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but middlemarket FAs are all you are going to get.

 
Never has their approach been confirmed to be a prudent one than the one time this ownership went top shelf for a free agent by the name of Carl Crawford.  Still a miracle they got out of that as lightly as they did.

 

[trekfan55]

That's the approach this ownership group has been using the whole time. They have been in on midmarket FAs from Matt Clement to Lackey and Dempster. And from JD Drew and Renteria to Victorino and Lugo. They have been out on top tier FAs like Teixeira, Sabathia, Halladay, Johan Santana, and Pujols.


The front office has clearly decided that top tier FAs carry too much risk, and that they should spend money on the middle market. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but middlemarket FAs are all you are going to get.

 
 
While I can agree with this, I think that the FO has also been unwilling to take the obligatory bad year that comes with a multiyear contract.  If the FO  (and us fans although it's not our money) is willing to accept 2 bad years from Victorino because of the 2013 World Championship, or 1 bad year of Napoli, or the 2 wasted years of Keith Foulke (slightly different case there because he obviously injured himself by leaving it all on the field in the 2004 postseason), or the bad Josh Beckett years...  we could go on and on here but my point is:
 
Why not sign Andrew Miller?  he would surey have given the Sox 2 and maybe 3 excellent years and would have shored up the bullpen.
Why not sign Beltre?  Solidify 3B, leave Youks at 1B, and have Rizzo in the minors ready to take over.  (the blessing in disguise us that they traded for Ginzakez instead and Gonzalez was the key for the Sox do over deal).
It is aging veterans that are off the radar such as Pujols.  And in the case of Teixeira the sox were simply outbid.

 

[The Boomer]

The pitching will improve just by fielding a superior defensive outfield with JBJ, Betts and Castillo. Victorino, if he isn't done, can displace Nava as the 4th outfielder.  Holt remains a super-sub.  Former SS Ramirez will help the IF both ways by replacing Napoli who is expiring just like his contract.  Sandoval will slide over to DH either when Papi gets hurt or as early as next season.
 
The bad start could be a blessing in disguise because sacrificing prospects to acquire Hamels no longer makes sense.  Without panicking, their quality pitching waiting for chances at AAA and AA.  As soon as this season or next, Only Ramirez, Sandoval and Pedroia will remain as veteran fixtures.  

 

[crystalline]

 
Never has their approach been confirmed to be a prudent one than the one time this ownership went top shelf for a free agent by the name of Carl Crawford.  Still a miracle they got out of that as lightly as they did.

Oh yeah, I think avoiding top tier FAs is absolutely the right strategy. This team would have been hamstrung for years if they had signed Santana or Pujols. You can eat Matt Clement's contract, or Victorino's, if things go wrong. The top FAs just carry too many years and dollars of downside risk. And the very best players don't usually hit FA till they're on the downside anyway- its a reasonable strategy to build the farm and fill in with midmarket FAs.

Hanley and Sandoval are big contracts and they are pushing towards the top tier, but both are under $100M. The big deals last year were Lester and Scherzer at $150M and $210M (?). Comparable position players are guys like Pujols and Teixeira and Cano. The Sox play in those waters so rarely that it seems like a strategic choice.

 

[Montana Fan]

On the pitching side, I think they need to accept that they won't be getting alot of innings from the starters whoever is in the rotation. Hence the need for long men in the pen ie more than one.

I would like to see before long a starting rotation with Porcello and Buchholz and 3others selected from this long list: Miley, Kelly, Rodriguez, Barnes and Johnson.

The two from this list who are not in the rotation compete with Wright, Breslow, Ross and Masterson for 3 places in pen reserved for long men ie capable of going 3 to 4 IPs periodically as required.

Farrell then works with a real quick hook all year.

For eg the staff could look like:

SP: Porcello, buchholz, kelly, Miley and Rodriguez

Long men: Wright, Masterson and Barnes.

Back end. Ogando, Layne, Tazawa and Koji.

The key is having multiple guys who can go multiple innings on the too frequent occasions where the starters dont have it. Ie 8 guys to get you thru approx 7 innings per day or about 6 innings each per week.

Killer, that approach makes too much sense. At 3 games under .500 there is no need to panic. Realigning the staff is what you do in early May.

 

[BoSox Rule]

Santana and Halladay were traded and they were very much in on Teixeiera.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Santana and Halladay were traded and they were very much in on Teixeiera.

 
I think the point is more that they draw a line in the sand with top-tier free agents (and trade acquisitions too) and don't cross it.  Typically speaking, it takes going above and beyond to acquire a top-tier, in-demand player like Teixeira, Santana or Halladay, whether it's a straight money free agent deal or a trade (followed by a huge extension).
 
The lone exception to that "line in the sand" approach, on both fronts, was December 2010 when they traded for (and extended) Adrian Gonzalez and signed Carl Crawford.  Moves that were admittedly PR moves as much as they were baseball moves.  Moves they were extremely fortunate to get out of so quickly.  Granted it took moving the okay big acquisition to get rid of the disaster, but the team is better off without either player.

 

[jacklamabe65]

And then Within a month they'll admit the obvious, that Victorino is as cooked as Craig (if he even makes it a month without breaking down yet again).

This team is very poorly managed right now. They're making decisions based on prayers instead of on evidence. Craig should not have gotten a single at bat against a righty over Nava or Holt, Mujica and Breslow shoulld not have kept Barnes And Wright in the minors, etc.

This so f'ing sucks again. Ridiculously frustrating.

I have never been in love with Farrell on any level. The one good thing that might come out of another disappointing season is the fact that he would probably be dismissed as a result.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

I have never been in love with Farrell on any level. The one good thing that might come out of another disappointing season is the fact that he would probably be dismissed as a result.

I agree. It sure would have been interesting to see what Friedman and Madden could have done with the resources of this organization. 

 

[soxhop411]

@PeteAbe: Shane Victorino in the clubhouse and will head to Oakland with the Sox.

 

[foulkehampshire]

I agree. It sure would have been interesting to see what Friedman and Madden could have done with the resources of this organization. 

 
Yeah, nothing to do at all with having top 3 draft picks every year for over a decade.
 
They drafted some generational talents and got lucky with some dumpster diving. It's no coincidence that the organization has struggled to develop players consistently since they've stopped drafting in the first couple rounds post 2009. 

 

[Coachster]

@PeteAbe: Shane Victorino in the clubhouse and will head to Oakland with the Sox.

So is this the end of the Nava era, or it is Jiminez who gets the axe?

 

[radsoxfan]

So is this the end of the Nava era, or it is Jiminez who gets the axe?

 
Farrell talking about a semi-platoon of JBJ and Victorino for the near future in RF.  
 
With Castillo in AAA as the next man up, seems very hard to see where Nava fits in short term or long term.  

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So is this the end of the Nava era, or it is Jiminez who gets the axe?

 
Gotta figure it's Jiminez.  The guy was only around so they could more comfortably use Holt in the outfield.  With Victorino returning, JBJ up, and Hanley back in the lineup, there's little need for Holt to play the OF anymore.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

The pitching will improve just by fielding a superior defensive outfield with JBJ, Betts and Castillo. Victorino, if he isn't done, can displace Nava as the 4th outfielder.  Holt remains a super-sub.  Former SS Ramirez will help the IF both ways by replacing Napoli who is expiring just like his contract.  Sandoval will slide over to DH either when Papi gets hurt or as early as next season.
 
The bad start could be a blessing in disguise because sacrificing prospects to acquire Hamels no longer makes sense.  Without panicking, their quality pitching waiting for chances at AAA and AA.  As soon as this season or next, Only Ramirez, Sandoval and Pedroia will remain as veteran fixtures.  

 
I sincerely doubt Hanley will be a better 1b than Napoli, despite his having been a better athlete in his prime. Napoli is a rather good defensive 1b, while Hanley has never played the position before. Hanley is a butcher at LF though he may get better with more experience there, but is whatever is gained in moving him off LF to play.... JBJ? worth losing what was projected to be one of the better bats in the lineup in Napoli? I'm not sure he's cooked yet.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

My explanation for Napoli is that the complicated surgery messed up his normal off-season routine and that he's entered 2015 off-kilter. I know his performance in Spring Training belies that speculation, but since when has ST ever been indicative of anything...
 
I can picture him really turning things around in the next month - mostly because I don't think a guy like him (no speed, good eye, etc.) loses his built-in ability to bat that quickly.
 
Unless of course you're Alan Craig. 

 

[ivanvamp]

My explanation for Napoli is that the complicated surgery messed up his normal off-season routine and that he's entered 2015 off-kilter. I know his performance in Spring Training belies that speculation, but since when has ST ever been indicative of anything...
 
I can picture him really turning things around in the next month - mostly because I don't think a guy like him (no speed, good eye, etc.) loses his built-in ability to bat that quickly.
 
Unless of course you're Alan Craig. 

Napoli is a streaky hitter. He was hot during spring training, then he was awful for a month to start the regular season. If he gets it going, he could carry the offense for several weeks.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

Apologies if this has been discussed, but..why wouldn't JBJ be the CF when he plays? Don't you want the best defender in the most difficult spot? Then move Mookie to the right? I get the concern about disrupting Mookie, but, I feel like they're playing with the weaker possible alignment with JBJ in RF and Mookie at CF. Especially considering the weak defense in LF.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Apologies if this has been discussed, but..why wouldn't JBJ be the CF when he plays? Don't you want the best defender in the most difficult spot? Then move Mookie to the right? I get the concern about disrupting Mookie, but, I feel like they're playing with the weaker possible alignment with JBJ in RF and Mookie at CF. Especially considering the weak defense in LF.

JBJ might not be up long, not worth disrupting Mookie for a slight upgrade for a few games.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Apologies if this has been discussed, but..why wouldn't JBJ be the CF when he plays? Don't you want the best defender in the most difficult spot? Then move Mookie to the right? I get the concern about disrupting Mookie, but, I feel like they're playing with the weaker possible alignment with JBJ in RF and Mookie at CF. Especially considering the weak defense in LF.

 
A few reasons. JBJ has more experience in the corner OF spots than Mookie, and CF is actually easier to read the ball from as long as you have the speed to cover ground. JBJ also has a better arm than Mookie.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Apologies if this has been discussed, but..why wouldn't JBJ be the CF when he plays? Don't you want the best defender in the most difficult spot? Then move Mookie to the right? I get the concern about disrupting Mookie, but, I feel like they're playing with the weaker possible alignment with JBJ in RF and Mookie at CF. Especially considering the weak defense in LF.

That's a tough one. Maybe the Sox are afraid of a repeat of last year when X struggled with the bat after changing positions. Also, Mookie is the constant, i.e., he'll be in there every day, so don't mess with him. That's reason #1 again, really. Finally, Mookie's been pretty damn good in CF anyway.

 

[radsoxfan]

Yeah, Farrell already said he doesn't plan to mess with Mookie.
 
If there was a giant gap between the two defensively, I could understand maybe switching them.  But I think Mookie is above average out there, so really no need to move him.  JBJ is the platoon OF that may not even be in the majors long.  He is the one who goes to RF, not your everyday leadoff man and above average defensive CF.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

Yeah, the explanations make sense, thanks. Though mostly in a scenario where JBJ isn't here to stay, or is a part time player. But if he plays everyday, I'm not sure the net positive is really better with him in RF. This is just quibbling anyway at this point, no big deal.
 
One reason I was wondering is really this sense that this team makes a lot of decisions that have some defensible logic in the big picture (keeping Allen Craig, Victorino up, holding on to the (apparently) weak rotation, Papi not appealing for some reason then missing a game where his bat would've been helpful [ok, that's really on Ortiz])...But all these mini-decisions have the bottom line of not having the best team/unit out there at all (or most) times. I guess that's part of managing for a long season, but I find that mindset to be a little...off. At some point, all of that catches up with you. By the time you make the win-now decisions, you may be out of the playoffs anyway. I realize it's a rather difficult balance though, the long vs. the short term.

 

[RetractableRoof]

 
I sincerely doubt Hanley will be a better 1b than Napoli, despite his having been a better athlete in his prime. Napoli is a rather good defensive 1b, while Hanley has never played the position before. Hanley is a butcher at LF though he may get better with more experience there, but is whatever is gained in moving him off LF to play.... JBJ? worth losing what was projected to be one of the better bats in the lineup in Napoli? I'm not sure he's cooked yet.

I've been of the thought that Napoli has been partially cooked for a while... and I think Napoli acknowledged as much in some ways when the mic picked up the outburst after his homerun against the Yankees - "I can't believe he threw me a fastball".  He seems to me to be stuck in that aging hitter nowhere land of needing to sit on fastball to hit it, he can't look offspeed and still get around on the fastball.  It's life and the inexorable march of time.  I think if everyone else was pounding the ball, he'd be fine as is.  In a lineup where there are struggles up and down the order, he looks a bit worse.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

I've been of the thought that Napoli has been partially cooked for a while... and I think Napoli acknowledged as much in some ways when the mic picked up the outburst after his homerun against the Yankees - "I can't believe he threw me a fastball".  He seems to me to be stuck in that aging hitter nowhere land of needing to sit on fastball to hit it, he can't look offspeed and still get around on the fastball.  It's life and the inexorable march of time.  I think if everyone else was pounding the ball, he'd be fine as is.  In a lineup where there are struggles up and down the order, he looks a bit worse.

That quote was because Tanaka had been filthy all game and had Napoli down 1-2. Why not go for the splitter--Tanaka's best weapon--in a situation where he can afford to bury one in the dirt. Tanaka made his money all 2014 with the splitter, and it was about situational awareness rather than Napoli being cooked.
 
Napoli had surgery in the offseason to fix his sleep apnea and had a monster ST that had many here expecting him to put up big numbers. Even a repeat of his (relatively) poor 2014 puts him at a 124 wRC+, which is a good hitter. Replacing his bat with JBJ's (by moving Hanley to 1B) in the lineup is a massive downgrade even if Bradley's improvement in the minors is for real. I love JBJ's glove, but you have to be pretty convinced that Hanley transitions well to 1b (without the benefit of spring training) while he would remain a butcher in LF and that Napoli doesn't come back near his career numbers to justify that sort of move. 

 

[RetractableRoof]

That quote was because Tanaka had been filthy all game and had Napoli down 1-2. Why not go for the splitter--Tanaka's best weapon--in a situation where he can afford to bury one in the dirt. Tanaka made his money all 2014 with the splitter, and it was about situational awareness rather than Napoli being cooked.
 
Napoli had surgery in the offseason to fix his sleep apnea and had a monster ST that had many here expecting him to put up big numbers. Even a repeat of his (relatively) poor 2014 puts him at a 124 wRC+, which is a good hitter. Replacing his bat with JBJ's (by moving Hanley to 1B) in the lineup is a massive downgrade even if Bradley's improvement in the minors is for real. I love JBJ's glove, but you have to be pretty convinced that Hanley transitions well to 1b (without the benefit of spring training) while he would remain a butcher in LF and that Napoli doesn't come back near his career numbers to justify that sort of move. 

ok, I read more into it than was there.  I agree with everything you said - Tanaka was nasty, etc.  Just took from it more than you did.

 

[trekfan55]

I think the point is more that they draw a line in the sand with top-tier free agents (and trade acquisitions too) and don't cross it.  Typically speaking, it takes going above and beyond to acquire a top-tier, in-demand player like Teixeira, Santana or Halladay, whether it's a straight money free agent deal or a trade (followed by a huge extension).
 
The lone exception to that "line in the sand" approach, on both fronts, was December 2010 when they traded for (and extended) Adrian Gonzalez and signed Carl Crawford.  Moves that were admittedly PR moves as much as they were baseball moves.  Moves they were extremely fortunate to get out of so quickly.  Granted it took moving the okay big acquisition to get rid of the disaster, but the team is better off without either player.

 

They were absolutely in on Santana. I believe Farell talked them into taking Lester off the table? The Sox had several packages they were discussing with Minnesota, who I still think were asking too much and took less from the Mets. But the point for this one is that they were in.

They were also 100% in on Teixeira. To the point that there are still articles out there that they the Sox could have signed him.

Halladay was never on the table. Maybe because of the divsion?



 

Yeah, nothing to do at all with having top 3 draft picks every year for over a decade.
 
They drafted some generational talents and got lucky with some dumpster diving. It's no coincidence that the organization has struggled to develop players consistently since they've stopped drafting in the first couple rounds post 2009.

Well, it's not only draft picks. They made very good trades, from Scott Kazmir to Wil Myers and have known when to bail on them and still sometimes get a good return.

Also, they have developed a very good bullpen from scrap heap pitchers, and have a very good starting rotation made up of several "not drafted in the first five picks" pitchers. Many of them are hurt this year. Plus several reclamation projects helped them, such as Carlos Pena, now James Loney, etc. is it caoching, is it something else? I don't know but that management/coaching team with even middle market support would probably build a constantly competitive team.

 

[bosockboy]

 
Yeah, nothing to do at all with having top 3 draft picks every year for over a decade.
 
They drafted some generational talents and got lucky with some dumpster diving. It's no coincidence that the organization has struggled to develop players consistently since they've stopped drafting in the first couple rounds post 2009. 

As much as I abhor that organization, I give Hickey a lot of credit. He gets results out of the dumpster diving (i.e. Peralta, Gomes, etc)

 

[threecy]

*bump*
I wonder if the recent changes are a part of the shake up Farrell hinted at?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Farrell has many many snake ups. Pedroia to lead off, Papi 5th, Rusney up from Pawtucket, Masterson out of rotation in favor of Wright, and Eddie-Rod getting a start.

There's been plenty of shaking up going on short of giving in to Amaro.

 

[Humphrey]

Farrell has many many snake ups. Pedroia to lead off, Papi 5th, Rusney up from Pawtucket, Masterson out of rotation in favor of Wright, and Eddie-Rod getting a start.

There's been plenty of shaking up going on short of giving in to Amaro. Cafardo

There, I fixed it for you

 

[pokey_reese]

Since we are bumping, from May 10th through last night:
 
Team record: 9-9
averaging 3.17 RPG
 
18 previous games: 6-12
averaging: 3.67 RPG
 
So while the offense has been scoring even fewer runs, the improvement by the pitching (or at least not just playing AL East teams) has been enough to offset the decrease. Kicking Masterson out of the rotation seems to be the only part of the shake-up that has been beneficial, but that alone could have been worth a few wins over that stretch, given how close the offense makes most games.