Five tool players who failed

[dwhogan]

Castillo was quoted by ESPN as saying that Moncada is a 5-tool

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=bostonred-sox&id=41815&city=boston&src=desktop

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

BJ Melvin Upton.  Also going back a bit further, Ruben Mateo of the Rangers (was leading rookies in BA when he broke his leg) and Ben Grieve (1998 AllStar/ROY, largely irrelevant after 2000).

BJ Upton is/was not a bust. He was a very good for 6 years. You can't be considered a bust, even if you are the 2nd pick in the draft if you had a least one top-10 WAR season and was one of the top 3-5 players on multiple playoff teams. Plus, Tampa let him walk before he fell off a cliff. Tampa Bay should never regret picking Bossman Junior.

Would Domonic Brown be too young to be considered a bust? He did sorta come out of nowhere, but was a huge time prospect by the time he got to the big and has produced a negative WAR in every season but one.

 

[Rovin Romine]

 
This is a core part of the question, though, isn't it?  "alleged 5-tool" players is phrased that way for a reason: part of the reason that guys who so-called five-tool guys may be busts is that the media loves to jump on the next big thing and exaggerate with those assessments.  The fact that it's a sometimes misapplied term is precisely part of the reason to temper expectations a bit when it's used in relation to Moncada.  
 
Whether true 5-tool guys ever bust can approach circularity, and is at least a lot harder to quantify (and possibly of questionable relevance to Moncada).  Whether guys who get the five-tool label (whether or not they are "real" 5-tool guys) bust, and how often, seems more fruitful.

 
Well, let's assume there are "5 tool" prospects.  Meaning prospects who, even though they haven't made it to the majors, show strong indications that all 5 tools will play at the ML level.  (There are 5 tool ML players who were touted, at some point in the minors, as 5 tool prospects.)
 
It's sort of implicit in the thread, but if a prospect is anointed 5 tool status and "fails" to make it in the majors, I'd suspect the following reasons:
 
1) mislabeling (really not a 5 tool prospect at all).
2) career altering injury
3) inability to hit for average
 
Absent injury, I can't imagine the other tools easily deserting a player to the point where a serviceable ML career isn't viable.  Perhaps a loss of power, but losing that alone would make the 5 tool player into something of a serviceable player - high average/obp, defense, arm, speed.  Anyway, power is probably best viewed as a part the hit tool.  On the other hand,  Defense, Arm, Speed can all be lost to some degree with the result that the player shifts somewhere else on the defensive spectrum, or DHs, or whatnot. 
 
So maybe we want to look at 5 tool guys who just couldn't transition to ML pitching, despite showing a demonstrated ability to hit for average and power in the minors.  

 

[ehaz]

BJ Upton is/was not a bust. He was a very good for 6 years. You can't be considered a bust, even if you are the 2nd pick in the draft if you had a least one top-10 WAR season and was one of the top 3-5 players on multiple playoff teams. Plus, Tampa let him walk before he fell off a cliff. Tampa Bay should never regret picking Bossman Junior.

Would Domonic Brown be too young to be considered a bust? He did sorta come out of nowhere, but was a huge time prospect by the time he got to the big and has produced a negative WAR in every season but one.

 
Ok, bust is perhaps unfair.  But calling him a 5 tool player?  That implies a plus 'hit' tool.  Sure, he showed the power at times in Tampa but even if we discount his seasons in Atlanta - a career 105 OPS+ doesn't scream 'prodigious talent, 2nd overall pick, etc, etc'. 

 

[SumnerH]

Well, let's assume there are "5 tool" prospects.  Meaning prospects who, even though they haven't made it to the majors, show strong indications that all 5 tools will play at the ML level.  (There are 5 tool ML players who were touted, at some point in the minors, as 5 tool prospects.)
 
It's sort of implicit in the thread, but if a prospect is anointed 5 tool status and "fails" to make it in the majors, I'd suspect the following reasons:
 
1) mislabeling (really not a 5 tool prospect at all).
2) career altering injury
3) inability to hit for average
 
Absent injury, I can't imagine the other tools easily deserting a player to the point where a serviceable ML career isn't viable.  Perhaps a loss of power, but losing that alone would make the 5 tool player into something of a serviceable player - high average/obp, defense, arm, speed.  Anyway, power is probably best viewed as a part the hit tool.  On the other hand,  Defense, Arm, Speed can all be lost to some degree with the result that the player shifts somewhere else on the defensive spectrum, or DHs, or whatnot. 
 
So maybe we want to look at 5 tool guys who just couldn't transition to ML pitching, despite showing a demonstrated ability to hit for average and power in the minors.

I disagree. If the goal is to assess Moncada, he should at least be compared to everyone who got the label (rightly or wrongly). He himself isn't yet someone who's demonstrated an ability to hit in the minors. This isn't even Jose Abreu who was OPSing over 1.000 in Cuba; Moncada put up a .768 career OPS over there. And the earlier questions about his defense are legit.

Limiting the comparisons to people who actually put it together in the high minors is likely to overestimate how confident we should be in Moncada at this point.

 

[CoRP]

Fellow Arsenal fan Billy Beane was a five tool outfielder that never got it together.

Great work here, Tommy.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Great work here, Tommy.

Good to see he read the first post of the thread.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I disagree. If the goal is to assess Moncada, he should at least be compared to everyone who got the label (rightly or wrongly). He himself isn't yet someone who's demonstrated an ability to hit in the minors. This isn't even Jose Abreu who was OPSing over 1.000 in Cuba; Moncada put up a .768 career OPS over there. And the earlier questions about his defense are legit.

Limiting the comparisons to people who actually put it together in the high minors is likely to overestimate how confident we should be in Moncada at this point.

 
If you're saying that Moncada might not be a "legitimate" 5 tool prospect, I'm right there with you.   I thought the inquiry was about legitimate 5 tool prospects that fail at the ML level.   If we don't try to define what  a "5 tool prospect" is, based on some kind of statistical track record, then as you pointed out, we're going to have all kinds of problems with players who were wrongly labeled as 5 tool prospects by the media.  

 

[Plympton91]

Great topic.

The first name that came to mind -- well, first player, took me a long time to remember his name -- was Michael Coleman, longtime Sox minor leaguer in the 90s.

Wasn't he regarded as a five-tool guy, especially after putting up a 20/20 season and hitting .300 at Trenton and Pawtucket in '97?

I could be mistaken, but I feel like I remember breathless coverage of him in local media in the mid 90s, with someone claiming he was the Sox Ken Griffey Jr. Anyone?

He had a bit of a noodle arm, if I recall correctly; so not 5-tool, but the one he lacked was probably the least important.

Hit for average, hit for power, defense, speed, arm; that's what we're talking about, right?

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

 
Ok, bust is perhaps unfair.  But calling him a 5 tool player?  That implies a plus 'hit' tool.  Sure, he showed the power at times in Tampa but even if we discount his seasons in Atlanta - a career 105 OPS+ doesn't scream 'prodigious talent, 2nd overall pick, etc, etc'. 

You are severely underestimating how often number two picks are true busts.

 

[ehaz]

You are severely underestimating how often number two picks are true busts.

 
Alright.  Still doesn't make him a 5-tool player.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

If only there were a way to see how busty #2 picks are...
 
Looking at the #2 picks since 1975 (and stopping with the 2010 #2 overall pick, as none from 2010-14 have made the bigs yet):
 
- Greg Reynolds, 2006 (-1.6 WAR in 33 games, career 7.01 ERA)
- Adam Johnson, 2000 (-1.1 WAR in 9 games, career 10.25 ERA)
- Mark Merchant, 1987 (never made the majors)
- Augie Schmidt, 1982 (never made the majors)
- Garry Harris, 1980 (never made the majors)
- Mike Lentz, 1975 (never made the majors)
 
That's it.  The rest range from Justin Verlander to Ben Davis.  I mean, Davis wasn't great but he got into 486 major league games and had 1500+ PAs.  I don't count any that as a bust in any way -- just getting to the major leagues and staying up there gets you out of the "bust" category for me.  Don't get me wrong -- Mark Lewis and his -2.6 career WAR over 2795 PAs sucks.  He wasn't a good player.  But he still had nearly 2800 PAs, which is a feat all in itself.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

 
Alright.  Still doesn't make him a 5-tool player.

Then why the fuck did you name him in a thread asking for five-tool players who haven't lived up to their potential?

 

[cannonball 1729]

NM

 

[dynomite]

 
Ok, bust is perhaps unfair.  But calling him a 5 tool player?  That implies a plus 'hit' tool.  Sure, he showed the power at times in Tampa but even if we discount his seasons in Atlanta - a career 105 OPS+ doesn't scream 'prodigious talent, 2nd overall pick, etc, etc'. 

BJ Upton was, like, the definition of a 5 tool player in the minors, right? Look at his MiLB career: career .295 average, 3 seasons of 40+ SB, 18 HR in AAA as a 20-year-old, had one of the best arms in the nation as a SS prospect out of HS...

All of that said, BJ Upton's name doesn't belong in this thread. The idea that he is anything in the ballpark of a "bust" -- as an ML starter for most of a decade, and a guy who had three seasons of 20/20 and five seasons with an OPS+ above 100 -- is laughable. We're talking about people like Michael Coleman, who ended up with 1 career HR and 1 career SB in 68 ML ABs.

 

[ehaz]

Then why the fuck did you name him in a thread asking for five-tool players who haven't lived up to their potential?

 
Oh I dunno, maybe because he was a five-tool player that didn't live up to his potential?
 
Per Jim Callis, 2002:

 
Upton is the consensus top-ranked player in the draft. He has the complete package. He's athletic, has all the tools and is an exciting player to watch. And he's by far the best player at a premium position. On the standard 20-80 scouting scale, he has a 75-80 arm (he can throw 90 mph across the diamond and 92 off a mound) and 70 speed (he runs the 60 in 6.55 seconds). He has good hands and excellent first-step acceleration, which is evident in both fielding balls and running the bases. His range for a middle infielder is outstanding. 

 
 
Scouts compare Upton to a young Derek Jeter, right down to the swagger. Upton is further along in his development than Jeter at a comparable age. He's more physically mature than Jeter, who developed his physique in pro ball, and has better power. Upton is just 17 and will play at that age throughout his first professional season. Scouts are curious how he'll handle the pressure of experiencing failure for the first time, since he's rarely failed at any step of his baseball career.

 
Per John Sickels 2003
 

In traditional scouting terms, Upton is a five-tool shortstop, a rare bird. From my perspective, Upton looks like he will develop all seven skills: ability to hit for power, hit for average, control the strike zone, show offensive speed, fielding range, arm strength and reliability. About his only major flaw at this point is reliability: he still makes too many errors. But that is common for players his age, and will likely ease with time. Other than that, Upton has no major flaws. He has a quick stroke and hits for average. He controls the strike zone very well. His power is mainly to the gaps now, but he should develop more home run power as he matures physically. He runs very well, and needs only additional experience to be a solid basestealer. He has the arm and range for shortstop. He also has a good work ethic, and exudes confidence on the field. Upton is a complete package, needing only experience to refine his skills.

 

[NoLastCall125]

My vote is for the biggest draft bust ever - Matt Bush (or at least top two with Brien Taylor). A high school shortstop that was picked #1 in 2004 by the Padres and never reached the majors. He couldn't hit so he tried to become a pitcher, but ended up a prisoner. He was considered to be a five tool can't miss prospect and failed spectacularly.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

My vote is for the biggest draft bust ever - Matt Bush (or at least top two with Brien Taylor). A high school shortstop that was picked #1 in 2004 by the Padres and never reached the majors. He couldn't hit so he tried to become a pitcher, but ended up a prisoner. He was considered to be a five tool can't miss prospect and failed spectacularly.

I don't think Bush was ever considered a can't miss prospect, and I think was considered an absolute value (cheap) pick for the Padres and most said he was a stretch, at most, for the top pick.

 

[SumnerH]

BJ Upton was, like, the definition of a 5 tool player in the minors, right? Look at his MiLB career: career .295 average, 3 seasons of 40+ SB, 18 HR in AAA as a 20-year-old, had one of the best arms in the nation as a SS prospect out of HS...

All of that said, BJ Upton's name doesn't belong in this thread. The idea that he is anything in the ballpark of a "bust" -- as an ML starter for most of a decade, and a guy who had three seasons of 20/20 and five seasons with an OPS+ above 100 -- is laughable. We're talking about people like Michael Coleman, who ended up with 1 career HR and 1 career SB in 68 ML ABs.

 
We're talking in the context of Moncada's signing, specifically "Was discussing the Moncada signing with my girlfriend and mentioned that he was projected as a potential 5-tool player. Interestingly, she asked me if there are any players with his projections that have failed to blossom after being labeled such a prodigious talent."
 
A Ben Davis/Mike Lewis kind of career may not be a bust in a vacuum, but it's also not the blossoming of prodigious talent.   In particular in the context of this discussion, it doesn't justify the amount of money being paid for Moncada, who's being paid with the expectation of being a perenniel-all star level producer for most of his first 6 years in the majors.
 
Upton's an interesting case; if we got his first 6 full years, that's about 16 WAR.  BA's top 10-15 rated prospects (Moncada's at 10, right?) average 10-15 WAR, so Upton's an overachiever by that barometer but an underachiever for a former #2 prospect.  If 5-tool guys are generally top-10 guys rather than 10-15, it's fair to say that Upton is a moderate disappointment as a 5-tooler but not an abject bust--and he represents almost exactly average projection for someone ranked where Moncada is (his later years brought him back into the 10-15 WAR range typical of such prospects)*.
 
At a market rate of $6-7 million/WAR (FanGraphs estimate of the 2014 offseason), then the signing bonus is probably a decent gamble; $30 million in bonus money, if he pans out you might be looking at $70 million total including arb payouts for a bunch of years of all-star production but if he's a bust the total cost is more like $40 million.
 
 
*I'm a little handwavy on "first 6" vs. career here, I'm sorry.  Obviously it's mainly the first 6 that matter to this signing, but it's generally easier to find career numbers.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

By my count, BJ Upton is 16/50 for 2nd picks overall, per WAR and may be able to climb to 15th.

 

[teddywingman]

BJ Upton's 2008 ALCS alone disqualifies him from the bust discussion.
 
dammit.

 

[theapportioner]

Wasn't Jason Place considered a five tool potential player when he was drafted?

 

[jacklamabe65]

Tom Yawkey was alleged to have said when he say Willie May taking batting practice at Fenway in 1945, "Get that five-tool player off the field!"

 

[Scoops Bolling]

I don't think Bush was ever considered a can't miss prospect, and I think was considered an absolute value (cheap) pick for the Padres and most said he was a stretch, at most, for the top pick.

Bush was a Top 5, at worst Top 10, prospect in that draft. He belongs with the draft busts mentioned in my past post.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Bush was a Top 5, at worst Top 10, prospect in that draft. He belongs with the draft busts mentioned in my past post.

I think he is very big bust, but he was never considered a can't - miss-prospect

 

[dwhogan]

"Tom Yawkey was alleged to have said when he say Willie May taking batting practice at Fenway in 1945, "Get that five-tool player off the field!""


Always comforting to remember the foresight of our forefathers.....

 

[Plympton91]

My vote is for the biggest draft bust ever - Matt Bush (or at least top two with Brien Taylor). A high school shortstop that was picked #1 in 2004 by the Padres and never reached the majors. He couldn't hit so he tried to become a pitcher, but ended up a prisoner. He was considered to be a five tool can't miss prospect and failed spectacularly.

Wasn't there another shortstop [not so] recently who was this big a bust as well, and then went on to become a quarterback for [LSU] Alabama or something? Josh Booty.

And how about Shawn Abner? Poor Mets.

Fake edits reflected in parentheses.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

How about a five tool, two sport bust?

 
Yankees draft pick, and Michigan/Cowboys  QB Drew Henson.  

 

[Wingack]

How about a five tool, two sport bust?
 
Yankees draft pick, and Michigan/Cowboys  QB Drew Henson.  

 
Henson was projected to be a slugger. Not a 5 tool type guy.

 

[dynomite]

 
A Ben Davis/Mike Lewis kind of career may not be a bust in a vacuum, but it's also not the blossoming of prodigious talent.   In particular in the context of this discussion, it doesn't justify the amount of money being paid for Moncada, who's being paid with the expectation of being a perenniel-all star level producer for most of his first 6 years in the majors.

 
Very good post, as usual.
 
We're probably into semantics at this point, but you're definitely right that a Upton is an interesting case. Still, I just can't come to terms with a universe where a guy with a 10 year MLB career in which he put up a 97 career OPS+, hit 139 HRs, and stole 264 bases is a "bust" in any sense of the term.  (Interestingly, according to B-Ref one of his closest comparisons is Corey Patterson, another guy mentioned in this thread... and it's actually really similar: 12 year career, 79 OPS+, 118 HRs, 218 SBs)
 
I think your "blossoming of prodigious talent" point is a good one.  To my mind, though, there's a lot of daylight between a "bust" and a "guy who didn't turn into the superstar he once seemed to be but ended up having a solid MLB career."  
 
1) Someone like Michael Coleman is a "bust."   It turned out that he could not play baseball at the ML level.  He turned out to be a bad baseball player.  He had 68 ABs and washed out of the league, and everyone who said he was going to be a superstar looks silly now.
 
2) BJ Upton and Corey Patterson were solid Major Leaguers who had solid MLB careers.  Take away the overhyping and fawning of the prospect crowd (baseball writers, scouts, wishful team fans), and what do you have?  Two guys who worked really hard and had professional careers most guys in the minors would kill for.  Sure, they didn't turn into the next Ken Griffey Jr.... but who the hell does turn into the next Ken Griffey Jr., or even a perennial All-Star, y'know?
 
In any event, I was mostly responding to others to emphasize that calling someone like BJ Upton is a "bust" to me sort of obliterates the term.  I'm with Laddie here:
 

I don't count any that as a bust in any way -- just getting to the major leagues and staying up there gets you out of the "bust" category for me.  

 
Edit: As for Sumner's actual point re: Moncada, that's a larger point than I should maybe answer in this thread (which is a fun exercise).  In short, though, if Moncada arrives and gives the Red Sox BJ Upton's first 6 full seasons (144+ games 5 of 6 years, 108 OPS+, 113 HR, 217 SB) that would earn him a thumbs up from me.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
Your girlfriend would make a good poster.

We could call her Farrah.

(I'm old.)