SumnerH said:
A Ben Davis/Mike Lewis kind of career may not be a bust in a vacuum, but it's also not the blossoming of prodigious talent. In particular in the context of this discussion, it doesn't justify the amount of money being paid for Moncada, who's being paid with the expectation of being a perenniel-all star level producer for most of his first 6 years in the majors.
Very good post, as usual.
We're probably into semantics at this point, but you're definitely right that a Upton is an interesting case. Still, I just can't come to terms with a universe where a guy with a 10 year MLB career in which he put up a 97 career OPS+, hit 139 HRs, and stole 264 bases is a "bust" in any sense of the term. (Interestingly, according to B-Ref one of his closest comparisons is Corey Patterson, another guy mentioned in this thread... and it's actually
really similar: 12 year career, 79 OPS+, 118 HRs, 218 SBs)
I think your "blossoming of prodigious talent" point is a good one. To my mind, though, there's a lot of daylight between a "bust" and a "guy who didn't turn into the superstar he once seemed to be but ended up having a solid MLB career."
1) Someone like Michael Coleman is a "bust." It turned out that he could not play baseball at the ML level. He turned out to be a bad baseball player. He had 68 ABs and washed out of the league, and everyone who said he was going to be a superstar looks silly now.
2) BJ Upton and Corey Patterson were solid Major Leaguers who had solid MLB careers. Take away the overhyping and fawning of the prospect crowd (baseball writers, scouts, wishful team fans), and what do you have? Two guys who worked really hard and had professional careers most guys in the minors would kill for. Sure, they didn't turn into the next Ken Griffey Jr.... but who the hell
does turn into the next Ken Griffey Jr., or even a perennial All-Star, y'know?
In any event, I was mostly responding to others to emphasize that calling someone like BJ Upton is a "bust" to me sort of obliterates the term. I'm with Laddie here:
CaptainLaddie said:
I don't count any that as a bust in any way -- just getting to the major leagues and staying up there gets you out of the "bust" category for me.
Edit: As for Sumner's actual point re: Moncada, that's a larger point than I should maybe answer in this thread (which is a fun exercise). In short, though, if Moncada arrives and gives the Red Sox BJ Upton's first 6 full seasons (144+ games 5 of 6 years, 108 OPS+, 113 HR, 217 SB) that would earn him a thumbs up from me.