Fix This Team: A Speculative Alternative to the Roster Shakeup Thread
- Thread starter koufax32
- Start date
1. First of all it was one person that suggested a trade.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
2. I did not know it was your decision to have Dewey end up in Baltimore.
It was back to the 1970s in the offseason and spring with the fairly prevalent notion that this team could muscle its way to playoff competitiveness with a roster of pitchers who manifestly were unworthy of that role -- or, put differently, required everything to go right for almost each and every one.
And now it's back to the 60s, 70s and beyond with the mantra that it "must" be the field manager's fault, and thus he should go. Even in the teeth of inarguable evidence that Ben's moves were not very effective from last year's trading deadline on.
I am in favor of firing neither. To me they proved their mettle a couple of years ago, and I think that warrants some patience. Beyond that, the worst moves almost always are panic moves and not infrequently in-season moves.
So from my standpoint, nobody should go, but if anyone, both should go. For several generations, in Boston and beyond, mediocre to poor general managers, in several sports, survived because it was the field manager's or head coaches "fault" -- a notion that dovetails nicely with fan conceit and fan fantasy. Thankfully, we are past that, and if you don't believe me, ask the Florida Marlins or Billy Beane.
This is a poor team in a weak division. Put them in any other division, and they would be clinically dead. Because we're in this division, don't throw the towel in but also don't let this frustration cloud our vision. The team was poorly constructed, and we are getting massive underperformance for the money invested.
And now it's back to the 60s, 70s and beyond with the mantra that it "must" be the field manager's fault, and thus he should go. Even in the teeth of inarguable evidence that Ben's moves were not very effective from last year's trading deadline on.
I am in favor of firing neither. To me they proved their mettle a couple of years ago, and I think that warrants some patience. Beyond that, the worst moves almost always are panic moves and not infrequently in-season moves.
So from my standpoint, nobody should go, but if anyone, both should go. For several generations, in Boston and beyond, mediocre to poor general managers, in several sports, survived because it was the field manager's or head coaches "fault" -- a notion that dovetails nicely with fan conceit and fan fantasy. Thankfully, we are past that, and if you don't believe me, ask the Florida Marlins or Billy Beane.
This is a poor team in a weak division. Put them in any other division, and they would be clinically dead. Because we're in this division, don't throw the towel in but also don't let this frustration cloud our vision. The team was poorly constructed, and we are getting massive underperformance for the money invested.
Not sure if this needs a separate thread or this will do, but with Hanley totally unable to play LF, don't you have to jettison one of your high-priced lumbering slumping sluggers?
There are 3 positions for 4 players, none of whom should (based on salary and expectations) be benched. Hanley, Ortiz, Napoli, and Panda. You have 3B, 1B, and DH for those 4, none of whom can play anything else. Do you trade the one you'd get most for? or, the one that's most overpaid? Is Ortiz touchable?
There are 3 positions for 4 players, none of whom should (based on salary and expectations) be benched. Hanley, Ortiz, Napoli, and Panda. You have 3B, 1B, and DH for those 4, none of whom can play anything else. Do you trade the one you'd get most for? or, the one that's most overpaid? Is Ortiz touchable?
ponchsox said:
The Red Sox have a 30% chance of making the playoffs on June 1st (Baseball Prospectus). But why let research get in your way if you're trying to make a point.
I would think that Napoli is the one who goes. Move Hanley to 1b, promote Bradley for RF and a full-time gig, and move Castillo to LF. The OF defense would greatly improve, but you are weakening the infield defense and the Red Sox lineup would have one less righthanded bat and they aren't hitting lefties very well even with Napoli. This is where the below average offensive performances of Betts and Bogaerts (without taking position into account) are hurting them. They can't rely on either player to take on a significant role in the middle of the order and so trading Napoli would thin out the lineup too much. That being said, they may want to take the gamble that Bogaerts and Betts will have a big second halves, and that Bradley will hit when he is promoted. In that scenario, the defensive upgrade would be worth it especially if they trade for a high end starter, which they desperately need.
Who would give the Sox a high end starter for Napoli? Anyone trading for Nap would certainly be in the GFIN mode, the type of team that is going to want to trade minor leaguers for immediate contributors.FanSinceBoggs said:
GraysonGrandeGonads said:
This is a massive overstatement and even if it weren't, it's just LF, not SS. I highly doubt Ramirez could step in and play anything resembling a passable 1B, and 3B would be barely better. The very last thing a struggling pitching staff needs is to make the infield defense even worse than it is due to a mediocre to bad defensive shortstop. And that leaves Hanley at DH, which means it's either him or Ortiz who goes elsewhere. Given that choice, and the relatively small investment it should take for a SS to play left field adequately, if Hanley can't play LF, send him packing.
The same Mike Napoli who had the highest OPS on the team in May at .878 and had more than twice as many HRs (7) as the 2nd place guys (3)?*FanSinceBoggs said:
Edit: As said below, there isn't a quick fix, although if there is one I think it involves the rotation more than the lineup. We just have to hope these guys remember that they don't suck.
You're right that of Hanley, Papi, and Napoli he's the first to go, but I don't see how that would really help an offense that was historically bad last month, especially given the injury to Hanley limiting him. Now, I think JBJ should be up as a late inning defensive replacement anyway, but that's a different story.
* Min 21 ABs. Victorino had a better OPS in 20 ABs before going on the DL.
There isn't a quick fix.
I think the plan was always to get three solid SPs out of the five who started the season, have one SP (probably either Owens or E-Rod) move up from the minors, and trade for another SP if the club was in contention.
The problem is that there aren't three solid SPs. Buchholz is the only pitcher whose poor performance could be fairly ascribed to bad luck; he still has all the question marks he had before the season, but I'll count him as solid. Porcello has lost whatever mojo the Sox thought he had, but his contract guarantees him a spot in the rotation so long as he's healthy. Kelly and Miley are competing for the third spot; I lean toward Miley, but reasonable opinion can differ. If the Sox climb back into contention in June, they should upgrade one of those spots at the deadline; if not, they should use the second half to evaluate both of them with an eye toward 2016 and beyond.
A lot has been said about Masterson not working out, but he was getting the results (albeit with smoke and mirrors) until his last two starts. I'm not sure what Farrell was supposed to do.
But this team wasn't built around pitching; the real problem is the hitting. Holt has been a pleasant surprise, and Pedroia and Bogaerts have done roughly what was expected, but everyone else has been disappointing to some degree, and if there's a pattern to be found, no one here seems to have put a finger on it. The guys who are suffering from bad luck (Betts, and to some extent Ortiz) will presumably snap out of it, but I'm not sure how Farrell or his staff are supposed to cure these guys.
It's possible that the hitting will simply come around, we'll get a little luck, and we can think about how we can plug the holes in the pitching staff -- but with each passing week, that seems less unlikely, and it seems more likely that the "talent level" (something Farrell's detractors seem to harp on) simply isn't as good as we thought.
I think the plan was always to get three solid SPs out of the five who started the season, have one SP (probably either Owens or E-Rod) move up from the minors, and trade for another SP if the club was in contention.
The problem is that there aren't three solid SPs. Buchholz is the only pitcher whose poor performance could be fairly ascribed to bad luck; he still has all the question marks he had before the season, but I'll count him as solid. Porcello has lost whatever mojo the Sox thought he had, but his contract guarantees him a spot in the rotation so long as he's healthy. Kelly and Miley are competing for the third spot; I lean toward Miley, but reasonable opinion can differ. If the Sox climb back into contention in June, they should upgrade one of those spots at the deadline; if not, they should use the second half to evaluate both of them with an eye toward 2016 and beyond.
A lot has been said about Masterson not working out, but he was getting the results (albeit with smoke and mirrors) until his last two starts. I'm not sure what Farrell was supposed to do.
But this team wasn't built around pitching; the real problem is the hitting. Holt has been a pleasant surprise, and Pedroia and Bogaerts have done roughly what was expected, but everyone else has been disappointing to some degree, and if there's a pattern to be found, no one here seems to have put a finger on it. The guys who are suffering from bad luck (Betts, and to some extent Ortiz) will presumably snap out of it, but I'm not sure how Farrell or his staff are supposed to cure these guys.
It's possible that the hitting will simply come around, we'll get a little luck, and we can think about how we can plug the holes in the pitching staff -- but with each passing week, that seems less unlikely, and it seems more likely that the "talent level" (something Farrell's detractors seem to harp on) simply isn't as good as we thought.
I'd assume anything the team would get for Napoli would be flipped as part of a package for a starter. The Cardinals seem to be a logical destination, though Ben got his ass handed to him in the Lackey deal.
geoduck no quahog said:
I agree with your (implicit) point about ponchsox adding nothing to the discussion, but I think most of us would take the under on those 3-in-10 odds. I know I would.
As I understand it, those odds assume that everyone will henceforth perform in line with their PECOTA projections for the rest of the year, which are still heavily weighed toward preseason expectations. I'm sure that a few guys will bounce back in this fashion. With so many players struggling, however, the odds are that a few of them won't turn it around (because their mechanics are screwed up, they're hiding an injury, they're washed up, or some other reason not accounted for by projections).
Smead Jolley, a man who, by fair accounts, made 3 errors on one play, put up a -1.4 dWAR in a career. Hanley has matched it in 42 games.Plympton91 said:
GraysonGrandeGonads said:
That would mean something, if dWAR weren't a junk statistic.
Or if players were incapable of improvement.
No Rudy, next time he comes up, he'll hit like everyone expected him to. I know it!Rudy Pemberton said:
maufman said:
You notice what possibility you're leaving out here, right?
Some players will outperform their PECOTA projections the rest of the way.
I mean, my instinct at this point is to discount this as impossible too, but of course it isn't.
Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
I never said, or meant to imply, that the Red Sox could trade Napoli for a high end starter. To acquire a high end starter, they would need to surrender prospects.
The best scenario for the starting rotation would be something like, trade for a high end starter, Rodriquez pitches like a rookie sensation (it could happen), Buchholz continues to perform well, and then the Red Sox would need 2 of 3 to pitch better over the next four months, and xFIP suggests that some improvement should occur: Porcello, Miley, Kelly. Such developments would solidfy the starting rotation, even give the Red Sox a championship caliber starting rotation.
Marbleheader said:
At best we'd be looking at salary relief possibilities first and foremost. Napoli by himself isn't pulling in any noteworthy non-rental talent.
I just don't see a quick fix here, or even much logic in making the legitimate attempt. Better to officially go into unofficial Bridge Year mode and aim more for the regroup/retool in 2016.
1. Focus on giving the kids a legitimate chance
2. Hope to pull a rabbit out of the hat for the remainder of the season
3. Do whatever possible between now and the deadline to avoid a LT hit, so we go into 2016+ with a reset tax rate.
maufman said:
Right, I didn't mean you were saying it was impossible, I was just riffing off the implications of what you did say. You had presented the alternatives as continued suckage vs. bouncing back to "in line with their PECOTA projections." My point is that those projections are supposedly a midline, not a ceiling, so we shouldn't leave out the possibility that some players will not just bounce back to their projections but surge past them.
1. I guess it doesn't account for such a bad division, but there have been very bad divisions before. You are also hoping none of the other 4 teams will improve. That is why the odds are low.koufax37 said:
2. The run differential is usually a better indicator of the true talent level of the team than their record (see research on pythagorean expectation). Considering they need to do a 180 on their run differential, it's pretty unlikely. 51 games is no longer a small sample.
3. Fangraphs has projections based on both their pre-season projections and the season stats to date. If you project the league based on stats to date, the Sox have a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs. While no one is projected to run away with the division, the Blue Jays, Rays and Yankees all have underlying stats that suggest they are better than average teams (The Yankees are projected to win the division with 85.6 wins). If you use their pre-season projections to project the rest of the season, the Sox have a 30.7% chance of making it, but still have a median projection of 81.3 wins based on the hole they put themselves in. I can buy some regression to get a projection somewhere in between the two, but it seems pretty likely at this point that the pre-season projections were in large part just wrong. I mean, yes it seems that a lot of players should be better, but...they're not, and a lot are new to the league and city, so weighing recent results higher seems fair to me.
You're right that there's not much to be gained by selling now as opposed to waiting a month. I would suggest you not buy any tickets for September at above face value, though.
I think the most realistic "solution" is as follows:
(1) Trust that the veterans will perform at their historical levels. Pedroia, Sandoval, Hanley, Ortiz, Napoli. Not asking for any of them to have a "good" (i.e., above career norms) season. Just one at their career norms. That would mean:
- Napoli: 125 ops+ (currently at 102)
- Pedroia: 115 ops+ (currently at 119…yay!)
- Sandoval: 122 ops+ (currently at 92)
- Hanley: 131 ops+ (currently at 118…he was at 131 last year, so it's not like his last 131 was eons ago)
- Ortiz: 139 ops+ (currently at 93…last year he was at 143)
(2) Hope that, of the four young guys (Betts, Bogaerts, Castillo, Swihart), at least two of them at any time are doing pretty well. I think this is very possible. There's hope.
- Swihart's (last 7 games): .333/.385/.333/.718
- Bogaerts (May 11-24): .390/.419/.561/.980
- Betts (last 13 games): .315/.351/.389/.740
- Castillo (too early to tell yet)
In other words, these guys (we'll see about Castillo) have shown the ability to get going over certain stretches of time. I suppose this isn't any different from most MLB players, but the point is that they're not consistently overwhelmed. They are very young, and still learning. But there is hope that they could, for stretches, get it going.
(3) Hope the starting pitching keeps improving. It's been much better the past month compared to April. Buchholz has been good. Miley has improved. Rodriguez has been a one-start revelation (so let's hope he can keep pitching well, though it's obviously unreasonable to expect the same level as his debut). Even Wright has been solid. Porcello and Kelly are the concerns, but each has enough talent (and positive history) to suggest that improvement is very possible.
(4) Maybe make one deal that gives the team a serious shot in the arm. No idea whether the trade would be for a position player or a pitcher. But perhaps there's a deal that exists without breaking the bank.
This team is just 4.5 games back. That's hard to believe, really. It shows how weak the AL East is, but you know what? So be it. It's a perfect year to stink, because you can stink and still be in the hunt. This team will likely stay in the hunt, stay within striking distance, for a long time to come, so there's no way (IMO) they'll blow it up or anything like that.
(1) Trust that the veterans will perform at their historical levels. Pedroia, Sandoval, Hanley, Ortiz, Napoli. Not asking for any of them to have a "good" (i.e., above career norms) season. Just one at their career norms. That would mean:
- Napoli: 125 ops+ (currently at 102)
- Pedroia: 115 ops+ (currently at 119…yay!)
- Sandoval: 122 ops+ (currently at 92)
- Hanley: 131 ops+ (currently at 118…he was at 131 last year, so it's not like his last 131 was eons ago)
- Ortiz: 139 ops+ (currently at 93…last year he was at 143)
(2) Hope that, of the four young guys (Betts, Bogaerts, Castillo, Swihart), at least two of them at any time are doing pretty well. I think this is very possible. There's hope.
- Swihart's (last 7 games): .333/.385/.333/.718
- Bogaerts (May 11-24): .390/.419/.561/.980
- Betts (last 13 games): .315/.351/.389/.740
- Castillo (too early to tell yet)
In other words, these guys (we'll see about Castillo) have shown the ability to get going over certain stretches of time. I suppose this isn't any different from most MLB players, but the point is that they're not consistently overwhelmed. They are very young, and still learning. But there is hope that they could, for stretches, get it going.
(3) Hope the starting pitching keeps improving. It's been much better the past month compared to April. Buchholz has been good. Miley has improved. Rodriguez has been a one-start revelation (so let's hope he can keep pitching well, though it's obviously unreasonable to expect the same level as his debut). Even Wright has been solid. Porcello and Kelly are the concerns, but each has enough talent (and positive history) to suggest that improvement is very possible.
(4) Maybe make one deal that gives the team a serious shot in the arm. No idea whether the trade would be for a position player or a pitcher. But perhaps there's a deal that exists without breaking the bank.
This team is just 4.5 games back. That's hard to believe, really. It shows how weak the AL East is, but you know what? So be it. It's a perfect year to stink, because you can stink and still be in the hunt. This team will likely stay in the hunt, stay within striking distance, for a long time to come, so there's no way (IMO) they'll blow it up or anything like that.
Plympton91-
"if Hanley can't play LF, send him packing."
Hanley isnt the next Carl Crawford, so dont get to crazy just yet.
"if Hanley can't play LF, send him packing."
Hanley isnt the next Carl Crawford, so dont get to crazy just yet.
Holt: 119 wRC+ over 120 PA ($500,000, FA in 2020)
WMB: 92 wRC+ over 170 PA ($500,000, FA in 2019)
RDLR: 3.34 xFIP over 64.0 IP ($500,000, FA in 2019)
Ramirez: 115 wRC+ (and historibad defense) over 196 PA ($22,000,000, $88,000,000 remaining)
Sandoval: 92 wRC+ over 183 PA ($19,000,000, $76,000,000 remaining)
Miley: 4.74 xFIP over 54.1 IP ($6,000,000, $12,000,000 remaining)
The good news, is that barring a vengeful god it can only get better.
WMB: 92 wRC+ over 170 PA ($500,000, FA in 2019)
RDLR: 3.34 xFIP over 64.0 IP ($500,000, FA in 2019)
Ramirez: 115 wRC+ (and historibad defense) over 196 PA ($22,000,000, $88,000,000 remaining)
Sandoval: 92 wRC+ over 183 PA ($19,000,000, $76,000,000 remaining)
Miley: 4.74 xFIP over 54.1 IP ($6,000,000, $12,000,000 remaining)
The good news, is that barring a vengeful god it can only get better.
I wonder if this team maybe could use some old-fashioned voodoo -- something that is bizarre and psychological rather than saber metric or structural. I'm thinking of the time that Belichick buried the ball after a bad loss to the Dolphins:
Maybe it's something goofy like arranging a batting order alphabetically or by height. Just something to make the game fun and interesting for the players.
I'm sure there are other examples from people like John Wooden or Red Auerbach or Phil Jackson.
Maybe it's something goofy like arranging a batting order alphabetically or by height. Just something to make the game fun and interesting for the players.
What I would like to see:
Rotation/Bullpen: drop Breslow, bring up Noe Ramirez, have Wright as the long man and keep Rodriguez in the rotation. Barnes becomes a late innings guy instead of a multiple innings guy.
Lineup/Bench: Drop Bianchi, try getting Peguero through waivers, bring up Bradley and Brentz. Bradley is the 4th OF, takes one game per week from Hanley, Betts, Castillo plus one of them gets two days off per week, giving Bradley four games per week. Platoon Hanley and Ortiz at DH with Brentz filling the void in LF against LHP. If Brentz hits great, if not he gets replaced in that role by Victorino when he's finally off the DL (and comes right back up a week later when Vic gets hurt again). Replace Leon with Quintero as I think the club needs more veteran stability to pair with Swihart. Holt would spell all of the infield at least once per week.
My problems so far with how this club has been handled: unwillingness to use the AAA depth to fill 25 man holes, likely from a fear of rushing players and some poor starts from AAA players who looked acceptable during late season call-ups last year. poor platooning of guys with obvious challenges (Vic against RHP, Ortiz against LHP, Nava against LHP, Sandoval against LHP) when worthwhile platoon partners are available. Not true platoons, but using them as a day off, which leads me to my biggest problem, not giving young players enough time off for rest and reflection. Lighten the load a bit, get them days off where they can work extensively with Davis and just watch veteran approaches in detail from the bench. This also gets more guys seeing regular ABs to potentially find a hot bat to ride.
Rotation/Bullpen: drop Breslow, bring up Noe Ramirez, have Wright as the long man and keep Rodriguez in the rotation. Barnes becomes a late innings guy instead of a multiple innings guy.
Lineup/Bench: Drop Bianchi, try getting Peguero through waivers, bring up Bradley and Brentz. Bradley is the 4th OF, takes one game per week from Hanley, Betts, Castillo plus one of them gets two days off per week, giving Bradley four games per week. Platoon Hanley and Ortiz at DH with Brentz filling the void in LF against LHP. If Brentz hits great, if not he gets replaced in that role by Victorino when he's finally off the DL (and comes right back up a week later when Vic gets hurt again). Replace Leon with Quintero as I think the club needs more veteran stability to pair with Swihart. Holt would spell all of the infield at least once per week.
My problems so far with how this club has been handled: unwillingness to use the AAA depth to fill 25 man holes, likely from a fear of rushing players and some poor starts from AAA players who looked acceptable during late season call-ups last year. poor platooning of guys with obvious challenges (Vic against RHP, Ortiz against LHP, Nava against LHP, Sandoval against LHP) when worthwhile platoon partners are available. Not true platoons, but using them as a day off, which leads me to my biggest problem, not giving young players enough time off for rest and reflection. Lighten the load a bit, get them days off where they can work extensively with Davis and just watch veteran approaches in detail from the bench. This also gets more guys seeing regular ABs to potentially find a hot bat to ride.
There has been a healthy amount of vitriol directed at Sandoval and Ramirez respectively and given they both had disappointing Mays that isn't terribly surprising.
However, imho, the biggest problem for the 2015 team is not the two newcomers in LF and 3b or the maligned pitching staff, but rather the lineup suffering from 3 significant holes. These holes were greater before the Red Sox were finally able to insert Castillo in RF to see what they have.
1) DH- David Ortiz has always been a key part of this team. Were Hanley and Sandoval supposed to be answer to that reliance? Yes, and in April outside of missing Panda power those two offensively provided that backup. However, as much as I like Ortiz, his struggles have been crippling to offensive production from the heart of the order. Especially when combined with
2) 1b/ and the insufficient replacements - Mike Napoli/Daniel Nava/ Allen Craig - Napoli's struggles this year have been well documented. Over the last week or so he has gotten better and is continuing to draw walks thankfully. Still Napoli represent a highly paid depth piece that has been in deep freeze for the better part of 2 months.
3) The disconcerting but hopeful 3 rookies in a lineup. Mookie, Swihart, and X all may become perennial all stars but as of now they are young players going through growing pains,each in their own respective ways. Hannigan may not of hit much, but he provided a lengthy at bat whereas Swihart's consistency ,through little to no fault of his own, is not there yet.
Roster Shakeup-
If I'm sitting in BC's seat or advising him I would say pretty much everything has to be on the table. With that said I'm not sure standing pat and seeing if this current group can turn itself around based on past performance be an answer. Would that perhaps be the most strictly baseball prudent thing to do? Maybe. However, with two middle of the lineup cogs in Ortiz and Napoli dramatically underperforming offensive help is a must. Another competent ML starter wouldn't hurt either.
Now BC has been a notorious stickler for trading his young pieces, but one would think he'd rather try and bring a top controllable talent in now opposed to getting axed at the end of the year and having his replacement reap the fruits of the farm he zealously protected . Passan and Rosenthal have said guys such Lucroy, Puig,Gomez, Upton( rental) are available. Would they cost a kings ransom? Yes. Would that cost include a Swihart or Ed Rod name? Possibly. The key of course is control and both Swihart and Ed Rod have lots of it.
Bottom line is I don't think BC can have another year like last and keep his job. Currently Napoli , Ortiz, and relying on three young guys up the middle has resulted in a terrible offense with some help from Ramirez and Sandoval's terrible Mays. The team was built to bludgeon opponents and for that to happen another high impact bat is needed.
However, imho, the biggest problem for the 2015 team is not the two newcomers in LF and 3b or the maligned pitching staff, but rather the lineup suffering from 3 significant holes. These holes were greater before the Red Sox were finally able to insert Castillo in RF to see what they have.
1) DH- David Ortiz has always been a key part of this team. Were Hanley and Sandoval supposed to be answer to that reliance? Yes, and in April outside of missing Panda power those two offensively provided that backup. However, as much as I like Ortiz, his struggles have been crippling to offensive production from the heart of the order. Especially when combined with
2) 1b/ and the insufficient replacements - Mike Napoli/Daniel Nava/ Allen Craig - Napoli's struggles this year have been well documented. Over the last week or so he has gotten better and is continuing to draw walks thankfully. Still Napoli represent a highly paid depth piece that has been in deep freeze for the better part of 2 months.
3) The disconcerting but hopeful 3 rookies in a lineup. Mookie, Swihart, and X all may become perennial all stars but as of now they are young players going through growing pains,each in their own respective ways. Hannigan may not of hit much, but he provided a lengthy at bat whereas Swihart's consistency ,through little to no fault of his own, is not there yet.
Roster Shakeup-
If I'm sitting in BC's seat or advising him I would say pretty much everything has to be on the table. With that said I'm not sure standing pat and seeing if this current group can turn itself around based on past performance be an answer. Would that perhaps be the most strictly baseball prudent thing to do? Maybe. However, with two middle of the lineup cogs in Ortiz and Napoli dramatically underperforming offensive help is a must. Another competent ML starter wouldn't hurt either.
Now BC has been a notorious stickler for trading his young pieces, but one would think he'd rather try and bring a top controllable talent in now opposed to getting axed at the end of the year and having his replacement reap the fruits of the farm he zealously protected . Passan and Rosenthal have said guys such Lucroy, Puig,Gomez, Upton( rental) are available. Would they cost a kings ransom? Yes. Would that cost include a Swihart or Ed Rod name? Possibly. The key of course is control and both Swihart and Ed Rod have lots of it.
Bottom line is I don't think BC can have another year like last and keep his job. Currently Napoli , Ortiz, and relying on three young guys up the middle has resulted in a terrible offense with some help from Ramirez and Sandoval's terrible Mays. The team was built to bludgeon opponents and for that to happen another high impact bat is needed.
ivanvamp said:
All of those veterans but Pablo are in their 30s, so what we should expect, with neither good luck nor bad, is that they will be a little worse than their career norms. Asking them to "perform at their historical levels" is, at this point, asking for a "good" season. And we do need at least one or two of them to do that. What we need even more is for some of the kids (including Rusney, who isn't really a kid) to break out.
Cuzittt took a look at the Red Sox offense on .com today:
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/veterans-are-the-culprits-in-the-red-sox-offensive-malaise/
Looks to me that the only way they can fix this team is to sit and wait. The only real option is to hope the veterans (Ortiz, Hanley, Pablo, etc.) start hitting. The Sox struggled in April because the starters were bad. Then they struggled in May because the hitters were bad. Hopefully, they put it all together. Luckily they are still in striking distance but there's no quick fix that'll replicate the veterans returning to their career norms.
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/veterans-are-the-culprits-in-the-red-sox-offensive-malaise/
Looks to me that the only way they can fix this team is to sit and wait. The only real option is to hope the veterans (Ortiz, Hanley, Pablo, etc.) start hitting. The Sox struggled in April because the starters were bad. Then they struggled in May because the hitters were bad. Hopefully, they put it all together. Luckily they are still in striking distance but there's no quick fix that'll replicate the veterans returning to their career norms.
I think you're on to something!Saints Rest said:
I watched a Jerry Lewis documentary last night, and when he was producing/directing/starring in his own films he set the tone for the other actors and the crew to enjoy the work. This may be easier to do with making comedy films compared to playing baseball, but it is playing baseball, not working baseball. Farrell seems like a smart, articulate, organized guy and those are good attributes for a manager. But he doesn't seem like a guy who sets a workplace tone for people to be enjoying what they are doing.
It seems to me that in 2013 the Sox didn't really need a fun tone to be set by Farrell, as the returning players were excited to have the previous manager gone, some were happy to have him replaced by an old friend, and the newly acquired veterans were excited to be in the new environment. Then the team started well, and kept playing well without any prolonged losing streak. But when then tough times started in 2014, Farrell hasn't been able to turn the mood around.
Sure, this is all psychobabble BS, but I'm not finding a better explanation.
I'm pretty sure every team has had a 0% chance of making the playoffs on June 1st every year.ponchsox said:
But if you mean the probability on June 1st that eventually we'll make the playoffs, according to BP it's at about 30% right now.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/index.php?dispgroup=div&standings_sort=ppct
One thing that should be taken into account is that with the emphasis by the coaching staff on the pitchers working inside more the team has also suffered a few more HBP's than they did in April. When this happens the Sox really miss the toughness and leadership of Victorino who dares the opponent to hit him. That won a few games in 2013
Everyone is down on Panda, no one seems to take into account the shot he took to his leg. I doubt that he is doing a lot of running so he might have packed on a few pounds since that happened. May is often a pitchers month in base ball as breaking ball command and arm strength improves. June usually sees the pendulum swing back in the hitters favor.
Everyone is down on Panda, no one seems to take into account the shot he took to his leg. I doubt that he is doing a lot of running so he might have packed on a few pounds since that happened. May is often a pitchers month in base ball as breaking ball command and arm strength improves. June usually sees the pendulum swing back in the hitters favor.
Honestly, folks, is there any possible "fix" for 2015 that wouldn't hurt them in 2016 and beyond?
Bottom line is that there are four promising young position players who are still a few years away from their expected peak (Betts, Bogaerts, Castillo, Swihart), plus some aging vets who are on their way out the door (Ortiz, Napoli, Victoring when he's healthy). These situations will all resolve themselves in a year or two. The three regulars who are still at/near their career peak (Pedroia, Panda, Hanley) aren't hitting that far below their expected levels; the biggest issue there is Hanley's minus defense, but that will be resolved by next year when he moves to 1B/DH/whatever. And Brock Holt is still BROCKHOLT.
The rotation is still full of question marks (Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly), but there are a bunch of talented youngsters right behind them (Wright, EdRod, Owens, Johnson). Again, this will probably resolve itself by next year; the 2016 rotation will probably have 2-3 of the question marks and 2-3 of the youngsters, but we don't know which ones. At this point you just gotta see what you have now before you can decide who's a keeper and who's going to the scrap heap.
At some point, the Sox will have to think about trading some vets on the last year of their contracts, but you're not going to get a good offer for any of them until you're close to the trading deadline, so this is really not even worth talking about for another month.
But otherwise, a roster shakeup is going to do a lot more harm than good in the long run. Continue developing the young talent the right way, and find ways to give the underperforming vets a few extra days off. If the stars align right for a 2015 run, great. If not, just plan on replacing the over-the-hill crowd in the offseason, and that should be enough to contend in 2016-2018.
Bottom line is that there are four promising young position players who are still a few years away from their expected peak (Betts, Bogaerts, Castillo, Swihart), plus some aging vets who are on their way out the door (Ortiz, Napoli, Victoring when he's healthy). These situations will all resolve themselves in a year or two. The three regulars who are still at/near their career peak (Pedroia, Panda, Hanley) aren't hitting that far below their expected levels; the biggest issue there is Hanley's minus defense, but that will be resolved by next year when he moves to 1B/DH/whatever. And Brock Holt is still BROCKHOLT.
The rotation is still full of question marks (Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly), but there are a bunch of talented youngsters right behind them (Wright, EdRod, Owens, Johnson). Again, this will probably resolve itself by next year; the 2016 rotation will probably have 2-3 of the question marks and 2-3 of the youngsters, but we don't know which ones. At this point you just gotta see what you have now before you can decide who's a keeper and who's going to the scrap heap.
At some point, the Sox will have to think about trading some vets on the last year of their contracts, but you're not going to get a good offer for any of them until you're close to the trading deadline, so this is really not even worth talking about for another month.
But otherwise, a roster shakeup is going to do a lot more harm than good in the long run. Continue developing the young talent the right way, and find ways to give the underperforming vets a few extra days off. If the stars align right for a 2015 run, great. If not, just plan on replacing the over-the-hill crowd in the offseason, and that should be enough to contend in 2016-2018.
Alex Speier @alexspeier 2m2 minutes ago
Brian Johnson's been scratched from his start for the PawSox, replaced by Miguel Celestino. Appears a callup for Johnson may be imminent.
Brian Johnson's been scratched from his start for the PawSox, replaced by Miguel Celestino. Appears a callup for Johnson may be imminent.
GaryPeters71 said:
Can't see where you'd put him, unless another SP is hurt? Even then, wouldn't you just drop to 5?
EDIT: Skipped due to workload. http://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/606095151170256896
GGGRRRRRRRRR!
Alex Speier @alexspeier 4m4 minutes ago
Clarification: Brian Johnson NOT getting called up.skipped due to workload.
Alex Speier @alexspeier 4m4 minutes ago
Clarification: Brian Johnson NOT getting called up.skipped due to workload.
GaryPeters71 said:
Weird they'd do that now, given they cut his last start after 6 perfect innings due to pitch count
He has a .298/.412/.439 line against LHP this year. He's featured similar splits previously. The only clear pathway to bench OF ABs on this club is when Farrell finally starts platooning Ortiz and Hanley at DH, getting a RH bat into LF when Ortiz is out of the lineup. Brentz is a worthwhile in-house option for that exact role. Let him come up, face primarily lefties, and see if he can hang at the ML level when facing his strength. It'd have more usefulness than Peguero or De Aza.Rudy Pemberton said:
Or we can keep running Ortiz out against LHP with a .304 OPS, squandering the quite nice .884 OPS against RHP he's putting up because we're too busy grabbing other team's scrubs to be our 25th man versus implementing a platoon that might just fix one of the serious weaknesses in this offense.
It would also free Brock Holt up to take additional ABs against LHP from Sandoval at 3B, another item that would potentially help this club.
Drek717 said:
For 2015, maybe, but I'd rather see him continue to develop at AAA and then compete for a spot in 2016. (I still think Hanley will be moved to 1B this winter, so that opens up one OF spot for JBJ, Brentz, and whatever free agent they sign to replace Victorino and/or Napoli).
Spier was just on mlbn w/ mad dog kind of dumping on the RS bullpen before Koji. Has he seen Taz's numbers? The problem is getting a lead, not maintaining it, imo. (Sorry, I see I stuck this in the wrong thread, I'll just leave it tho, as game's on now.)
Brentz is 26, he has over 800 ABs at the AAA level after over 500 ABs at the AA level. Currently in his third stint in AAA with a worse overall stat line than either of the previous two.AB in DC said:
At some point maybe we need to accept that the guy isn't growing anymore at the current level and we should see if he's one of those guys who flips the switch at the ML level or if he's roster filler. The power is there. The walk rate isn't even something ou can't live with. The question is whether he can hit ML pitching at roughly his AAA clip or if he's going to be flirting with the Mendoza line and is therefore not much of a ML player at all.
The only way Brentz gets into the conversation for taking over LF after this season is if he either A. has a revelation at the AAA level and begins hitting for contact like never before or B. hits ML pitching for a sample size that actually matters.
Koji and Taz are ok, Layne is good against lefties. Is there anyone else you want to see on the mound? Ever? I guess Barnes is tantalizing, for now.InsideTheParker said:
I'm off by one game, but:
Red Sox have played 4 games indoors
40 degrees - 50 degrees: 8 games
50 degrees - 60 degrees: 17 games
60 degrees - 70 degrees: 16 games
70 degrees - 80 degrees: 7 games
80+ degrees: 1 game
Something like 25 of 54 games (nearly half) have been played at temperatures under 60 degrees. Another 16 under 70 degrees.
The team has only played something like 12 games in baseball weather (or indoors) over 70 degrees (only 1 over 80)
I know many other teams have the same situation, but it seems like a cold spring for the team so far, and there's no immediate correlation between temperature and wins. We know that cold weather impacts the grip on breaking balls (absent sunscreen) and that it effects some hitters.
I wonder if this actually means anything. Just thought I'd throw out the data. A graph of temperature versus win-loss over time reveals nothing (other than the team stinks).
Red Sox have played 4 games indoors
40 degrees - 50 degrees: 8 games
50 degrees - 60 degrees: 17 games
60 degrees - 70 degrees: 16 games
70 degrees - 80 degrees: 7 games
80+ degrees: 1 game
Something like 25 of 54 games (nearly half) have been played at temperatures under 60 degrees. Another 16 under 70 degrees.
The team has only played something like 12 games in baseball weather (or indoors) over 70 degrees (only 1 over 80)
I know many other teams have the same situation, but it seems like a cold spring for the team so far, and there's no immediate correlation between temperature and wins. We know that cold weather impacts the grip on breaking balls (absent sunscreen) and that it effects some hitters.
I wonder if this actually means anything. Just thought I'd throw out the data. A graph of temperature versus win-loss over time reveals nothing (other than the team stinks).