Hi everyone,
Football outsider’s DVOA playoff odds report is out. A note on how it is compiled:
The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
Link to the full report: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
All of this information was compiled by Mike Harris at FO. I do not take credit for it.
Through of Week 5 (note, this does not include the week 6 games yet):
AFC East:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
NE 3-2 9.0 40% 10% 8.5% 49%
BUF 3-2 9.0 45% 16% 5.4% 50%
MIA 2-2 7.5 14% 2.1% 5.6% 19%
NYJ 1-4 5.0 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5%
AFC North:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
CIN 3-1 10.2 50% 39% 21% 71%
BAL 3-2 9.8 29% 24% 33% 62%
PIT 3-2 9.0 16% 9.3% 24% 40%
CLE 2-2 7.8 4.8% 3.3% 12% 17%
AFC South:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
IND 3-2 8.9 64% 11% 3.1% 67%
HOU 3-2 8.3 33% 5.4% 6.2% 39%
TEN 1-4 5.9 3.4% 0.0% 0.8% 4.3%
JAC 0-5 3.3 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AFC West:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
DEN 3-1 11.1 61% 53% 27% 88%
SD 4-1 10.3 36% 25% 39% 75%
KC 2-3 7.6 3.8% 1.9% 13% 17%
OAK 0-4 3.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NFC East:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
DAL 4-1 9.7 35% 24% 24% 59%
PHI 4-1 9.7 38% 22% 22% 60%
NYG 3-2 9.0 26% 12% 17% 43%
WAS 1-4 6.1 0.8% 0.1% 1.9% 2.6%
NFC North:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
GB 3-2 10.3 67% 42% 14% 80%
DET 3-2 9.0 25% 13% 24% 49%
CHI 2-3 8.0 7.4% 3.5% 16% 23%
MIN 2-3 6.3 1.3% 0.4% 2.5% 3.9%
NFC South:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
ATL 2-3 8.4 51% 11% 3.0% 54%
CAR 3-2 7.7 32% 5.1% 4.2% 36%
NO 2-3 6.9 16% 1.0% 2.2% 18%
TB 1-4 4.7 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0%
NFC West:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
SEA 3-1 11.2 72% 51% 18% 89%
ARI 3-1 8.7 14% 10% 28% 42%
SF 3-2 8.7 14% 5.8% 24% 38%
STL 1-3 5.3 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3%
The odds for each playoff seed:
AFC:
1) Den (33%), Cin (22%), SD (13%)
2) Den (20%), Cin (17%), SD (12%), Bal (11%), Buf (11%)
3) IND (20%), Buf (18%, NE (14%),
4) IND (34%), Hou (17%), NE (17%), Buf (10%)
5) SD (25%), Den (19%), Bal (17%), Cin (10%)
6) Bal (16%), Pit (15%), SD (14%), Cin (11%)
NFC:
1) Sea (31%), GB (21%), Dal (13%), Phi (11%)
2) GB (21%), Sea (20%), Dal (11%), Phi (11%)
3) GB (16%), Sea (15%), Atl (12%), Phi (11%)
4) Atl (28%), Car (20%), GB (9%)
5) Ari (16%), Det (12%), SF (12%), Dal (12%), Phi (11%)
6) Ari (12%), SF (12%), Det (12%), Dal (12%), Phi (11%)
The playoff seeding these data imply just based on simulated wins:
AFC:
1) Den (11.1 wins)
2) Cin (10.2 wins)
3) NE/BUF (both have 9.0 wins)
4) IND (8.9 wins)
5) SD (10.3 wins)
6) Balt (9.8 wins)
NFC
1) Sea (11.2 wins)
2) GB (10.3 wins)
3) Dal/Phi (both with 9.7 wins)
4) Atl (8.4 wins)
5) Dal/Phi (both with 9.7 wins)
6) Det/NYG (both with 9.0 wins)
I will update once FO updates with the week 6 results. Obviously, alot of this will change. For example, NE/Buf will no longer be tied for that 3 seed.
Football outsider’s DVOA playoff odds report is out. A note on how it is compiled:
The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
Link to the full report: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
All of this information was compiled by Mike Harris at FO. I do not take credit for it.
Through of Week 5 (note, this does not include the week 6 games yet):
AFC East:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
NE 3-2 9.0 40% 10% 8.5% 49%
BUF 3-2 9.0 45% 16% 5.4% 50%
MIA 2-2 7.5 14% 2.1% 5.6% 19%
NYJ 1-4 5.0 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5%
AFC North:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
CIN 3-1 10.2 50% 39% 21% 71%
BAL 3-2 9.8 29% 24% 33% 62%
PIT 3-2 9.0 16% 9.3% 24% 40%
CLE 2-2 7.8 4.8% 3.3% 12% 17%
AFC South:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
IND 3-2 8.9 64% 11% 3.1% 67%
HOU 3-2 8.3 33% 5.4% 6.2% 39%
TEN 1-4 5.9 3.4% 0.0% 0.8% 4.3%
JAC 0-5 3.3 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AFC West:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
DEN 3-1 11.1 61% 53% 27% 88%
SD 4-1 10.3 36% 25% 39% 75%
KC 2-3 7.6 3.8% 1.9% 13% 17%
OAK 0-4 3.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NFC East:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
DAL 4-1 9.7 35% 24% 24% 59%
PHI 4-1 9.7 38% 22% 22% 60%
NYG 3-2 9.0 26% 12% 17% 43%
WAS 1-4 6.1 0.8% 0.1% 1.9% 2.6%
NFC North:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
GB 3-2 10.3 67% 42% 14% 80%
DET 3-2 9.0 25% 13% 24% 49%
CHI 2-3 8.0 7.4% 3.5% 16% 23%
MIN 2-3 6.3 1.3% 0.4% 2.5% 3.9%
NFC South:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
ATL 2-3 8.4 51% 11% 3.0% 54%
CAR 3-2 7.7 32% 5.1% 4.2% 36%
NO 2-3 6.9 16% 1.0% 2.2% 18%
TB 1-4 4.7 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0%
NFC West:
Team Record Mean Wins Win Division Bye WC Playoff %
SEA 3-1 11.2 72% 51% 18% 89%
ARI 3-1 8.7 14% 10% 28% 42%
SF 3-2 8.7 14% 5.8% 24% 38%
STL 1-3 5.3 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3%
The odds for each playoff seed:
AFC:
1) Den (33%), Cin (22%), SD (13%)
2) Den (20%), Cin (17%), SD (12%), Bal (11%), Buf (11%)
3) IND (20%), Buf (18%, NE (14%),
4) IND (34%), Hou (17%), NE (17%), Buf (10%)
5) SD (25%), Den (19%), Bal (17%), Cin (10%)
6) Bal (16%), Pit (15%), SD (14%), Cin (11%)
NFC:
1) Sea (31%), GB (21%), Dal (13%), Phi (11%)
2) GB (21%), Sea (20%), Dal (11%), Phi (11%)
3) GB (16%), Sea (15%), Atl (12%), Phi (11%)
4) Atl (28%), Car (20%), GB (9%)
5) Ari (16%), Det (12%), SF (12%), Dal (12%), Phi (11%)
6) Ari (12%), SF (12%), Det (12%), Dal (12%), Phi (11%)
The playoff seeding these data imply just based on simulated wins:
AFC:
1) Den (11.1 wins)
2) Cin (10.2 wins)
3) NE/BUF (both have 9.0 wins)
4) IND (8.9 wins)
5) SD (10.3 wins)
6) Balt (9.8 wins)
NFC
1) Sea (11.2 wins)
2) GB (10.3 wins)
3) Dal/Phi (both with 9.7 wins)
4) Atl (8.4 wins)
5) Dal/Phi (both with 9.7 wins)
6) Det/NYG (both with 9.0 wins)
I will update once FO updates with the week 6 results. Obviously, alot of this will change. For example, NE/Buf will no longer be tied for that 3 seed.