Interesting post over at FootballPerspective about whether analysts tend to overvalue interceptions:
Some gems from it:
538 has done a few pieces on the subject:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-manning-vs-messi-and-andrew-luck-experiment/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-the-aaron-rodgers-enigma/
To be clear: it's not that interceptions are good, it's that if you're not throwing any interceptions, you're probably being overly cautious with the ball. On the other hand, Brady (one of the best ever at avoiding INTs) has won three Super Bowls, and Favre (despite being the best QB of his generation) only won one. I do think in terms of averageish QBs, you're much better off with a gunslinger - it's easier for Flacco or Eli to get hot and not throw picks for three games than it is for Alex Smith to get hot and make plays for three games, even though over the long haul they're probably fairly similar in terms of value.
With respect to Rodgers, I think some of the issue is that Green Bay isn't willing to just have him throw down after down even when it makes sense (either based on the opponent or based on the game situation). He threw just 26 times in a playoff loss to San Francisco last year. He's never thrown more than 48 times in a game; Brady's done that four times just this year, including last week. I'm not sure whether that reflects on Rodgers at all or if it's just McCarthy.
Some gems from it:
The Game Managers list is populated by many of the worst modern passers, including notorious busts such as Gabbert, Russell, Harrington, and Boller, plus a host of rookies and washed up veterans. One can certainly go too far when it comes to sacrificing yardage as a way to avoid interceptions.
...
It appears that quarterbacks can get away with high interception rates as long as they move the ball efficiently. Why are Gunslingers so successful? And why are there so many Game Manager types in the modern game, when it doesn’t usually lead to winning?
...
... [T]ake a closer look at Aaron Rodgers. Despite owning the lowest interception rate in NFL history, he has a middling record in close games, and a downright terrible record when coming from behind. Why? He’s not taking the risks necessary to optimize his chances of winning. Even when trailing, which calls for a more aggressive strategy, Rodgers will usually take a sack rather than force a throw downfield. Avoiding interceptions keeps his stats looking pretty, but he has almost certainly left several wins on the table in the process.
...
Consider the unlikely Super Bowl runs over the past decade; every one of those teams had a Gunslinger type QB (Joe Flacco in 2012, Eli Manning in 2011 and 2007, Kurt Warner in 2008, Jake Delhomme in 2003). While all of them look terrible when things go wrong, their high risk styles give their teams a chance even when they’re overmatched.
538 has done a few pieces on the subject:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-manning-vs-messi-and-andrew-luck-experiment/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-the-aaron-rodgers-enigma/
To be clear: it's not that interceptions are good, it's that if you're not throwing any interceptions, you're probably being overly cautious with the ball. On the other hand, Brady (one of the best ever at avoiding INTs) has won three Super Bowls, and Favre (despite being the best QB of his generation) only won one. I do think in terms of averageish QBs, you're much better off with a gunslinger - it's easier for Flacco or Eli to get hot and not throw picks for three games than it is for Alex Smith to get hot and make plays for three games, even though over the long haul they're probably fairly similar in terms of value.
With respect to Rodgers, I think some of the issue is that Green Bay isn't willing to just have him throw down after down even when it makes sense (either based on the opponent or based on the game situation). He threw just 26 times in a playoff loss to San Francisco last year. He's never thrown more than 48 times in a game; Brady's done that four times just this year, including last week. I'm not sure whether that reflects on Rodgers at all or if it's just McCarthy.