The 2013, 2007 and 2004 Sox embodied what an AL offense should strive for: Their respective players at 1B, 3B, DH, LF and RF combined for strong BB, HR and RBI numbers, which were a catalyst for the exceptional overall team AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS. After looking at the numbers of World Series teams over the last 5-7 years, there is a trend: AL teams ('12 DET, '11 TEX, '10 TEX, '08 TB, '06 DET) who have not been strong in these areas have failed to overcome good NL pitching. You have to go back to 2005 to find a weaker hitting team that won the WS (CWS def HOU). Thank you Brad Lidge. The 3 Red Sox teams and the '09 Yankees (Texiera, A-Rod, Damon, Swisher and Matsui were the power bats in that spectacular offense) hit their marks and won.
What this means to me is that the Red Sox should be targeting a team .279 Avg, .360 OPS, .450 SLG and .810 OPS. To help get there, they need a power target of roughly 116 HR, 472 RBI and 342 BB combined out of their 1B, 3B, DH, RF and LF. It doesn't really matter how they get there.
I believe that the Red Sox FO should be looking at any and all combination of players that can reach this specific level of offense. It may be optional requirement to make the playoffs, but it is a near necessity to win in the playoffs. We have been fortunate to have had players like Manny and Papi complemented by steady professionals like Youk, Lowell, Drew and Victorino. Throw in Millar, Mueller and Gomes…and we win.
So now what?
*We have Papi, Cespedes and Napoli through 2015. They are the only Sox players with more than 8 home runs!?! 3B and RF are still serious question marks. As of 2016, we have NONE of them. EDIT: and Al Craig.
*We can afford to struggle a bit with JBJ and Xander, but only if they are playing CF and SS, respectively (as opposed to RF/LF/3B). They, along with WMB,Sizemore, Nava and Carp absolutely killed us this season. If BROCKHOLT can give us Bill Mueller numbers (50 BB, 10-15 HR, 50-60 RBI) he would be a fine cog in the wheel. Moving forward, I am wary of asking all of the kids to produce the corner power numbers needed to truly compete in the AL.
*I would love Giancarlo. His projections alone, however, would not have solved our 2014 crisis of ineptitude. If we get him in the next 2 years, it is essential then to find 3-4 other players who will pick up the slack, especially if/when Papi regresses or retires.
I have attached an Excel file showing the last 5 years of Red Sox power bat stats, along with '04 and '07 from comparison.
What this means to me is that the Red Sox should be targeting a team .279 Avg, .360 OPS, .450 SLG and .810 OPS. To help get there, they need a power target of roughly 116 HR, 472 RBI and 342 BB combined out of their 1B, 3B, DH, RF and LF. It doesn't really matter how they get there.
I believe that the Red Sox FO should be looking at any and all combination of players that can reach this specific level of offense. It may be optional requirement to make the playoffs, but it is a near necessity to win in the playoffs. We have been fortunate to have had players like Manny and Papi complemented by steady professionals like Youk, Lowell, Drew and Victorino. Throw in Millar, Mueller and Gomes…and we win.
So now what?
*We have Papi, Cespedes and Napoli through 2015. They are the only Sox players with more than 8 home runs!?! 3B and RF are still serious question marks. As of 2016, we have NONE of them. EDIT: and Al Craig.
*We can afford to struggle a bit with JBJ and Xander, but only if they are playing CF and SS, respectively (as opposed to RF/LF/3B). They, along with WMB,Sizemore, Nava and Carp absolutely killed us this season. If BROCKHOLT can give us Bill Mueller numbers (50 BB, 10-15 HR, 50-60 RBI) he would be a fine cog in the wheel. Moving forward, I am wary of asking all of the kids to produce the corner power numbers needed to truly compete in the AL.
*I would love Giancarlo. His projections alone, however, would not have solved our 2014 crisis of ineptitude. If we get him in the next 2 years, it is essential then to find 3-4 other players who will pick up the slack, especially if/when Papi regresses or retires.
I have attached an Excel file showing the last 5 years of Red Sox power bat stats, along with '04 and '07 from comparison.