Hey, Let's Talk The Mookie Trade!

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The blindspot most people have on this topic, in my view, is that Mookie wanted to be in southern California — or at least a different kind of city — for non-baseball reasons, and it was and remains in neither party’s interests to say so.

This sadly, unfortunately is 100% correct. Why would Betts say anything at all that would likely be spun to sound like he hated Boston? Once you're making an insane amount of money... the millions of different dollars is much less difference than in living in a place where you'd much rather like to be. The guy clearly wanted to play in LA and I don't think offering him $5M more per year than Trout would have made a difference. They extracted what they could have... just wish it was a little more, but them taking Price also lowered what Bloom was going to be able to get.

 

[simplicio]

But if those elite years coincide with an otherwise bad team, you're the Angels.

If he provides so much value in the first half of the contract, who cares? This is where I diverge from the mindset. Mookie making $30M and “earning” $15-20M or whatever for a few years isn’t going to sink a large market team. You know decline is coming but by the time it does, he’ll probably have banked 6-7 good-to-elite years.

 

[snowmanny]

I understand that the danger of giving out a big contract to a great player is that at some point in their mid-30's they may stop being great, and that big payrolls may not be Boston's current plan, but...

1. The danger of giving out semi-big contracts to lesser players instead is that the player may turn out to be not particularly good at all by the time they are 29 and 30. Things could change, but I'm thinking of our prized SS.
2. Teams can definitely be consistently competitive without big contracts or a big payroll, but there is no evidence, so far, that Red Sox can do it.

 

[NickEsasky]

The blindspot most people have on this topic, in my view, is that Mookie wanted to be in southern California — or at least a different kind of city — for non-baseball reasons, and it was and remains in neither party’s interests to say so.

Maybe it’s a blind spot because he’s repeatedly denied it. Maybe he’s lying but I take the man at his word.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If he provides so much value in the first half of the contract, who cares? This is where I diverge from the mindset. Mookie making $30M and “earning” $15-20M or whatever for a few years isn’t going to sink a large market team. You know decline is coming but by the time it does, he’ll probably have banked 6-7 good-to-elite years.

I think it goes beyond just value though. Roster spots are precious. Sure, it's nice that a player "earned" his contract in the first five years so that the final five years are gravy. But what if you want to upgrade that spot and he's still got three years left on his deal? Just cut him cold-heartedly? Eat salary to dump him on a second division team? None of this is as simple as fans want it to be.

 

[chawson]

Maybe it’s a blind spot because he’s repeatedly denied it. Maybe he’s lying but I take the man at his word.

His accounts have also been contradictory on this topic, denying he ever received a $300+ million contract offer from Boston when it was reported at the time that he had.

I don’t think he’s lying or duplicitous so much as he’s smart and media savvy, and genuinely appreciates his time in Boston. He’s one of the sport’s foremost Black ambassadors and owns a media production company. I’m sure at some point he recognized that those developments are easier to achieve in L.A. than Boston.

His aspirations transcend the sport, and rightly so. It makes absolutely no sense for him to say a single bad word about Boston, especially if his goal is for baseball to embrace more diversity across the board.

 

[InsideTheParker]

Unless Mookie falls off a cliff starting now (always possible I suppose) it was just a bad talent evaluation.

I have wondered why he was so ineffective against the Dbacks' pitching in last post-season. Has there ever been any explanation for that?

 

[BigSoxFan]

People keep saying this about.... Montgomery.... Xander..... Mookie..... Ohtani..... whoever. There might be one or two contracts that any team will be able to deal with paying out insane amounts without it catching up to signing young talent to long term contracts that don't take them past age 33

Montgomery and Xander aren’t even in the some stratosphere as Mookie Betts or Ohtani. We’re talking MVPs. An MVP calibre player who declines can still be quite useful. Should the Yankees not have extended Judge in your estimation?

 

[Rovin Romine]

But what if he’s just an overpaid average player? Papi was great at 40 - outliers do happen. Some guys you overextend for. Guys with MVP pedigrees are ones I’d assume some risk on. I think the oversimplification is everyone assuming that every big contract makes a team the Angels.

He's got 9 years left for ages 31-39, with something like $293M to be paid out.

It's not that a single overpaid player on a long contract will cripple a club. Because there's never a scenario where a club has just one overpaid player and everything else goes swimmingly for a 6 year stretch. Likewise there's never a scenario where having an additional $30M to spend a year is going to be viewed as a nothing-burger by any team.

Montgomery and Xander aren’t even in the some stratosphere as Mookie Betts or Ohtani. We’re talking MVPs. An MVP calibre player who declines can still be quite useful.

Or:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

It really feels like so much of this comes down to Mookie. If one is able to put that to side and evaluate the rest, it's hard to know whether it is some kind of trend, a proxy of owner philosophy, or just some timing and imperfect decisionmaking.

In real time, the Mookie thing was divisive and difficult to understand, and it wasn't clear what ownership's motivations were. Some believe it was ownership being cheap. Some believe it was ownership swallowing a hard pill to try to be better for years to come. Others are highly offended that that might even be possible, and think that's a cover for cheapness or revised priorities.

To me, though, it hangs over everything. It was clearly a mistake in hindsight. But hindsight can distort and be disorienting.

I just think it's the one decision that hangs heavily over the organization and seems to be the basis -- spoken or unspoken -- for how people view the club right now. I guess I'm just not comfortable making broad generalizations based on one mistake. I know people want to see it as part of a trend. But the data points on things like the YY signing are so unique and far between that it's hard for me to judge any of that.

I'm not trying to re-litigate Mookie. It's just an observation that at the end of the day, that really does seem to be what we're talking about.

 

[HighTek]

Its not the loss of Mookie that hurts (He didnt want to play here - if he did they offered him the money to play here) Its this ownership group not spending money to replace him w/ someone who wants to play in Boston.

 

[pjheff]

Its not the loss of Mookie that hurts (He didnt want to play here - if he did they offered him the money to play here) Its this ownership group not spending money to replace him w/ someone who wants to play in Boston.

 

[Delicious Sponge]

Its not the loss of Mookie that hurts (He didnt want to play here - if he did they offered him the money to play here) Its this ownership group not spending money to replace him w/ someone who wants to play in Boston.

Except for Rafael Devers and Trevor Story and Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida. Other than that….

 

[Auger34]

So basically, the Sox with Betts right now are what they have been each of the last two seasons. And if the team was as bad as you say it would be, maybe we still end up with Mayer (or someone else equally exciting) anyway.

At least we'd have Mookie. I'd rather see a bad team with a superstar than a bad news with no one.

Yeah….im not sure how you can look at this team and talk about how with Mookie “they’d have bad starting pitching and would rely too much on Chris Sale”. Thats happened every year without him

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

I have wondered why he was so ineffective against the Dbacks' pitching in last post-season. Has there ever been any explanation for that?

Yes. Small sample size. It was three games.

 

[TomRicardo]

The 2019 team was not trending up in talent. The pitching was a mess, very expensive and trending down. Minors were bare. Finances were stretched and penalties were looming.

Sam Kennedy thanks you for your blind obedience PP. Seriously do you work for FSG? This is pretty easy to rip apart

And a ton of homegrown players (Betts, Xander, Ben10, JBJ, Devers) were soon due big raises in the near future. Betts wanted Trout money and could potentially leave for nothing.

Betts wanted Mike Trout money is a weird strawman. Besides Betts being the best player in baseball at the time, he didn't sign for Mike Trout money. Sure you can say he wanted Mike Trout money in the sense I would want Mike Trout money but to say there was no way to reason with him is ridiculous as he took a contract that right now looks extremely team friendly from another team. He is literally going to be 18th-20th AAV next year. What you meant to say was the Red Sox were not going to pay for an MVP even if you could tell the contract would trend in pretty affordable range.

That team was going nowhere and keeping it together wasn’t going solve the problem of sinking in the standings. The rest of the AL East was set up to get better.

So they could have maybe possibly become the disaster that it is today? But without that damn likable MVP, making watching the dogshit team somewhat watchable? Hate to find any joy in watching baseball. Ruins the patience.

The Sox with Betts right now are a last place team. No depth at SP and hoping for Sale to stay healthy. Add to that no Mayer and a lesser minor league system.

Yes losing pathetically and getting your teeth kicked in year over year does help your draft position I give you that. That said, I am not sure a team with Mookie is a last place team. First off, if you aren't getting rid of Mookie for the Dodgers table scraps, you aren't bringing Bloom to the tank the team in the Process 2: Electric Bugaloo. So instead of the worst GM in baseball lets say they get a league average GM. A league average GM ias going to stay the course and not through bad money at mediocre talent over and over again for "financial flexibility".

Lets say the Red Sox grab Mookie on his old contract instead of trading him and instead of bringing in Story they keep Xander on the contract he has. That means that they don't get Yoshida, Verdugo, Story, or Wong. Also lets say Whitlock and Pivetta never get grabbed. Casas, Bello, Duran, and Houck are all on the team because they are all in the system pre Mookie trade. So they keep ERod, Xander, Betts, and Benintendi at their contracts today and fill with everyone in the system before Betts is traded.

Still the 2023 team looks like:

Benintendi LF
Duran CF
Mookie RF
Devers 3B
Bogaerts SS
FA 2B
Casas 1B
FA C
FA DH

Dalbec
Rafaela
Chang
FA
FA

ERod
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Sale

Matt Barnes
Darwin Hernandez
Chris Murphy
FA
FA
FA
FA
FA

So even with all that, you would have more than 45 million in cap space to fill out the roster and stay under the tax. 45 million*. Lets say the guys that left need additional 1 AAV to stay in Boston to be generous, that is more than 40 million. I added Barnes back because we paid him to play for the Marlins.

By the way Perales, Mata, and Winkleman are still in the system as is Noah Song. So even if Generic "keep the train running" GM doesn't touch anything, the pitching depth in about the same (though I doubt it doesn't get better). So yes the system doesn't have Mayer, Abreu, or Teel (Yorke and Anthony could easily be here or not) but otherwise it is probably not terribly different. Rafaela is still in the system.

*(There was a bit of rounding up to make the easier to digest. Competitive Cap is 26 man payroll through the year + 40 man minor players + bonus pool for 0-3 year players + Benefits which is around 16.5 million when you deep dive it is closer to 50 million)

I mean this blows your whole argument out of the water. That might need be a WS winning team depending on who you pick up but it is a shit ton better than where we are at. That was Bloom's mortal sin, overpaying mediocre talent trying to hit big. He lost almost every trade he was apart minus the Pivetta trade. He had a couple of cute pick ups like Whitlock. In the end in baseball three dimes are always less than a quarter.

 

[Salem's Lot]

Except for Rafael Devers and Trevor Story and Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida. Other than that….

The worst impact that the Mookie trade had in my opinion is how it destroyed baseball discussion on the main board, which used to be thoroughly enjoyable and educational.

He was many posters’ favorite player, and it seems that a large percentage of the membership here decided that they were done with this ownership group after that move.

And so most threads turn into rehashing the Mookie trade.

 

[BigSoxFan]

He's got 9 years left for ages 31-39, with something like $293M to be paid out.

It's not that a single overpaid player on a long contract will cripple a club. Because there's never a scenario where a club has just one overpaid player and everything else goes swimmingly for a 6 year stretch. Likewise there's never a scenario where having an additional $30M to spend a year is going to be viewed as a nothing-burger by any team.


Or:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml

Why are we comparing players with completely different body types as Mookie though? Would you not assume the next 6-7 years of Mookie’s deal, if given the chance today? Aren’t we really just talking the final 2-3 years unless there is something else in the aging curve that concerns you? Given his defensive abilities, when do we think his current deal inverts? And the Dodgers also got prime years in his late 20s, something the Angels never got with Pujols.

 

[soxin6]

The worst impact that the Mookie trade had in my opinion is how it destroyed baseball discussion on the main board, which used to be thoroughly enjoyable and educational.

He was many posters’ favorite player, and it seems that a large percentage of the membership here decided that they were done with this ownership group after that move.

And so most threads turn into rehashing the Mookie trade.

I wonder if this is what a place like SOSH would have been like in the early 80s when Lynn and Fisk were no longer part of the Sox.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Why are we comparing players with completely different body types as Mookie though? Would you not assume the next 6-7 years of Mookie’s deal, if given the chance today? Aren’t we really just talking the final 2-3 years unless there is something else in the aging curve that concerns you? Given his defensive abilities, when do we think his current deal inverts? And the Dodgers also got prime years in his late 20s, something the Angels never got with Pujols.

I was just pointing out that MVP players who decline (your argument) aren't always very useful, and a single big contract isn't what makes a team like the Angels (again your argument.)

Beyond that, the Betts stuff bores me.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I was just pointing out that MVP players who decline (your argument) aren't always very useful, and a single big contract isn't what makes a team like the Angels (again your argument.)

Beyond that, the Betts stuff bores me.

Ok, that’s fair. I don’t view my position as right or yours as wrong. I think there’s plenty of room for fundamental differences on team building. We all have different risk tolerance levels and it will be interesting to see how Mookie’s 30s actually do turn out to better analyze the risks. In the meantime, I’ll be here pining for the Sox to sign Acuna to a mega deal in 5 years .

 

[simplicio]

Sam Kennedy thanks you for your blind obedience PP. Seriously do you work for FSG? This is pretty easy to rip apart




Betts wanted Mike Trout money is a weird strawman. Besides Betts being the best player in baseball at the time, he didn't sign for Mike Trout money. Sure you can say he wanted Mike Trout money in the sense I would want Mike Trout money but to say there was no way to reason with him is ridiculous as he took a contract that right now looks extremely team friendly from another team. He is literally going to be 18th-20th AAV next year. What you meant to say was the Red Sox were not going to pay for an MVP even if you could tell the contract would trend in pretty affordable range.




So they could have maybe possibly become the disaster that it is today? But without that damn likable MVP, making watching the dogshit team somewhat watchable? Hate to find any joy in watching baseball. Ruins the patience.



Yes losing pathetically and getting your teeth kicked in year over year does help your draft position I give you that. That said, I am not sure a team with Mookie is a last place team. First off, if you aren't getting rid of Mookie for the Dodgers table scraps, you aren't bringing Bloom to the tank the team in the Process 2: Electric Bugaloo. So instead of the worst GM in baseball lets say they get a league average GM. A league average GM ias going to stay the course and not through bad money at mediocre talent over and over again for "financial flexibility".

Lets say the Red Sox grab Mookie on his old contract instead of trading him and instead of bringing in Story they keep Xander on the contract he has. That means that they don't get Yoshida, Verdugo, Story, or Wong. Also lets say Whitlock and Pivetta never get grabbed. Casas, Bello, Duran, and Houck are all on the team because they are all in the system pre Mookie trade. So they keep ERod, Xander, Betts, and Benintendi at their contracts today and fill with everyone in the system before Betts is traded.

Still the 2023 team looks like:

Benintendi LF
Duran CF
Mookie RF
Devers 3B
Bogaerts SS
FA 2B
Casas 1B
FA C
FA DH

Dalbec
Rafaela
Chang
FA
FA

ERod
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Sale

Matt Barnes
Darwin Hernandez
Chris Murphy
FA
FA
FA
FA
FA

So even with all that, you would have more than 45 million in cap space to fill out the roster and stay under the tax. 45 million*. Lets say the guys that left need additional 1 AAV to stay in Boston to be generous, that is more than 40 million. I added Barnes back because we paid him to play for the Marlins.

By the way Perales, Mata, and Winkleman are still in the system as is Noah Song. So even if Generic "keep the train running" GM doesn't touch anything, the pitching depth in about the same (though I doubt it doesn't get better). So yes the system doesn't have Mayer, Abreu, or Teel (Yorke and Anthony could easily be here or not) but otherwise it is probably not terribly different. Rafaela is still in the system.

*(There was a bit of rounding up to make the easier to digest. Competitive Cap is 26 man payroll through the year + 40 man minor players + bonus pool for 0-3 year players + Benefits which is around 16.5 million when you deep dive it is closer to 50 million)

I mean this blows your whole argument out of the water. That might need be a WS winning team depending on who you pick up but it is a shit ton better than where we are at. That was Bloom's mortal sin, overpaying mediocre talent trying to hit big. He lost almost every trade he was apart minus the Pivetta trade. He had a couple of cute pick ups like Whitlock. In the end in baseball three dimes are always less than a quarter.

45 million to fill 10 slots plus find an additional 2 starters because 3/5 of your rotation is sale/houck/crawford and your bullpen is hot garbage seems like a great way to field an absolutely awful team.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Ok, that’s fair. I don’t view my position as right or yours as wrong. I think there’s plenty of room for fundamental differences on team building. We all have different risk tolerance levels and it will be interesting to see how Mookie’s 30s actually do turn out to better analyze the risks. In the meantime, I’ll be here pining for the Sox to sign Acuna to a mega deal in 6-7 years .

I wish Mookie nothing but the best, unless he plays the Sox. It will be interesting to see what he does.

 

[jbupstate]

Except for Rafael Devers and Trevor Story and Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida. Other than that….

It’s complete nonsense that they wouldn’t pay. Who should they have paid a premium for in free agency over the past two years?

Correa
DeGrom
Rodon

And being happy with Betts on a last place team going nowhere is such bullshit. Angels fans must really be happy to still have Trout and keeping Ohtani until the end.

The only acceptable plan was/is to build up the farm system and weaponize it. Theo said that. The problem is they aren’t there yet and maybe never will be.

They didn’t get enough for Betts because they moved him with Price. That’s what fucked the Sox.

 

[HighTek]

Except for Rafael Devers and Trevor Story and Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida. Other than that….

I meant w/ a Big Ticket player like Harper - Seager - Soto - Yamamoto. Replace w/ a 300M Free Agent signing - I should have be more clear.

Raffey cant replace Mookie since he was already here. I was still happy they opened up the wallet and paid the man his money - even if that deal makes me worried long term.

 

[radsoxfan]

If he provides so much value in the first half of the contract, who cares? This is where I diverge from the mindset. Mookie making $30M and “earning” $15-20M or whatever for a few years isn’t going to sink a large market team. You know decline is coming but by the time it does, he’ll probably have banked 6-7 good-to-elite years.

Yeah it’s not simply “they knew he would be good at 30, but they were worried about age 35”.

I truly don’t think they predicted how much excess value they would get from Mookie early on in the contract (again, some semi-comps of his didn’t do nearly as well).

Fangraphs has Mookie worth about 120M the last 2 seasons while his AAV is 30M/season (union valued his contract at 306M over 12 years). That’s a ton of excess value.

If they knew they would get that mookie at age 30 they would have been a lot happier to potentially overpay for age 35+ mookie.

They didn’t know, they got worried he wouldn’t age well, and they punted on the majority of a hall of fame career. They blew it and it sucks.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Didn’t the Sox supposedly make Mookie a huge offer? I think they simply didn’t anticipate the high end of the market moving the way it is has in the past few years.

 

[JCizzle]

Didn’t the Sox supposedly make Mookie a huge offer? I think they simply didn’t anticipate the high end of the market moving the way it is has in the past few years.

The highest rumored offer was $300M, but he denied that on the record. My recollection is that they were always a year late with their offers. For example, offering $200M or whatever when that was a more appropriate offer the year prior. Same mistake they made with Devers, which led to him getting a market rate deal (and probably an overpay, honestly).

Which reminds me, why don't they have Casas and Bello locked down yet? If you want the Braves model, you gotta take some sort of leap and overpay these guys early before they continue inching closer to FA.

 

[Mr. Wednesday]

Didn’t the Sox supposedly make Mookie a huge offer? I think they simply didn’t anticipate the high end of the market moving the way it is has in the past few years.

There are reports of the Sox offering $300 MM which I believe was somewhere around the spring of 2018 or 2019. Mookie has denied it being "offered" but I'm not sure exactly what that denial encompasses (the most charitable reading assuming relatively truthful reporting from all parties might be that the Sox were thinking about that number, asked Mookie's reps what it would take to sign him, and Mookie's reps gave a number so much higher that the Sox didn't think they would be able to get to an agreement).

Re projection Mookie's excess value, he had come back to earth a bit in 2019, I believe 2018 was his age-27 season so it wasn't necessarily likely that he would repeat that performance, and defensive metrics showed significant decline in 2019 so it was reasonable to be concerned about how well he would continue to defend when a lot of his value was in his defense.

 

[RS2004foreever]

There should be a pinned thread here called "Relitigate Mookie"

 

[jbupstate]

There are reports of the Sox offering $300 MM which I believe was somewhere around the spring of 2018 or 2019. Mookie has denied it being "offered" but I'm not sure exactly what that denial encompasses (the most charitable reading assuming relatively truthful reporting from all parties might be that the Sox were thinking about that number, asked Mookie's reps what it would take to sign him, and Mookie's reps gave a number so much higher that the Sox didn't think they would be able to get to an agreement).

Re projection Mookie's excess value, he had come back to earth a bit in 2019, I believe 2018 was his age-27 season so it wasn't necessarily likely that he would repeat that performance, and defensive metrics showed significant decline in 2019 so it was reasonable to be concerned about how well he would continue to defend when a lot of his value was in his defense.

Mookie is on the record saying he wanted Trout money. That $426.5m! He would have received more but took less because of Covid. Mookie Betts is an awesome baseball player and absolutely deserved a giant bag of money.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

There should be a pinned thread here called "Relitigate Mookie"

We're waiting until we reach the ten threads plateau and then starting a new forum exclusively to discuss Mookie. We're only one away right now.

 

[Delicious Sponge]

Mookie trade:

 

[pk1627]

The blindspot most people have on this topic, in my view, is that Mookie wanted to be in southern California — or at least a different kind of city — for non-baseball reasons, and it was and remains in neither party’s interests to say so.

JFC. Exactly.

There has been a lot of talk by management lately of the players, coaches, execs who choose Boston. Want to be part of this tradition and the environment. Doesn’t take a lot to understand the flip side - there are also those who want out.

 

[moondog80]

As far as Mookie goes, there’s no way Bloom was the lone gunman. There was definitely a second shooter on the grassy knoll.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Broke this out of the McAdam thread. I'm sure I missed some post. Shoot me a PM with the post # when you find one please.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Strictly speaking from a fan/interest perspective, my problem and lack of interest in the Red Sox these days stems from this:

There is no continuity in the core of this team. And that matters to me.

I started really following the Red Sox in 1995. In that year, they had Mo Vaughn and John Valentin at it’s core, along with new-comers Troy O’Leary and Tim Wakefield. Guys came and went, but those four were around for at least a few years, as we saw guys like Daubach added, and superstars like Pedro Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra joined the ranks - as did Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.

Vaughn, Valentin, Clemens, Canseco, O’Leary eventually left or faded into irrelevance, but there was always that bridge, and guys like Papi, Manny, Damon, Schilling filled that void. Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Youkilis, Papelbon, Ellsbury all joined the team while Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, Varitek, and Wakefield were all still here and relevant. Those guys bridged into Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, and Christian Vazquez. And those guys bridged into Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers.

But between 2020 and 2022, there was almost what seemed like a cutting of a cord - both gradual and instantaneous. You had the 2018 championship team - decimated via trade and free agency. Price and Mookie shipped out. Vazquez traded for nothing. X and JDM gone to free agency. Plenty of others gone, and sure, probably for the better. But a glance at our roster shows… what…? two players remaining from the last time the Red Sox were relevant - the shadow of Chris Sale, and Rafael Devers, signed to a contract that feels like it was made simply to prevent an all out riot amongst the fans - a brief reprieve before returning to the new “business as usual” model.

I really feel disconnected from the team as a whole, and would rather just root for the Dodgers - because at least they have Mookie Betts and David Roberts - plus it would be fun to root for Ohtani and Yamamoto. But I’m also not really interested in switching to a new team either. So at the end of the day, I will probably just continue not caring.

 

[Seels]

To me, though, it hangs over everything. It was clearly a mistake in hindsight. But hindsight can distort and be disorienting.

The trade was a mistake before it ever happened. You don't need hindsight for it. Verdugo and Wong had limited upside beyond being cost controlled, and the only way the trade satisfies either fans or the on field product is if Jeter Downs turned into an every day short stop, a lot to assume about a guy with 12 games above A ball.

The biggest problem is that the FO got burned by bad contracts and is risk averse to them, and never really considered giving one to Mookie. If they did, the time to approach him wasn't after his 10 war MVP year, it was 2015 or 2016 at the latest.

edit: Let's say Casas turns into a .950 ops first baseman, and his defense improves slightly. Similar to what Yandy Diaz did this year. What are the chances the FO extends him prior to 2025, rather than waiting out a year or two of his arb years?

Or let's say the same with Bello. Improves the k rate, lowers the homer rate, similar to what Framber Valdez looked like this year. What are the chances the FO extends?

What the Mookie trade did is make me have little to no confidence that the FO does this, and instead would rather win over marginal areas for what they see of value rather than keep any continuity of the team. Too calculating for bottom line, not calculating enough for the long term fans. Everyone wants a Braves situation, but you know it takes more than just good young players for that -- at some point those good young players need to be around for more than their entry contract.

 

[BigSoxFan]

The trade was a mistake before it ever happened. You don't need hindsight for it. Verdugo and Wong had limited upside beyond being cost controlled, and the only way the trade satisfies either fans or the on field product is if Jeter Downs turned into an every day short stop, a lot to assume about a guy with 12 games above A ball.

The biggest problem is that the FO got burned by bad contracts and is risk averse to them, and never really considered giving one to Mookie. If they did, the time to approach him wasn't after his 10 war MVP year, it was 2015 or 2016 at the latest.

edit: Let's say Casas turns into a .950 ops first baseman, and his defense improves slightly. Similar to what Yandy Diaz did this year. What are the chances the FO extends him prior to 2025, rather than waiting out a year or two of his arb years?

Or let's say the same with Bello. Improves the k rate, lowers the homer rate, similar to what Framber Valdez looked like this year. What are the chances the FO extends?

What the Mookie trade did is make me have little to no confidence that the FO does this, and instead would rather win over marginal areas for what they see of value rather than keep any continuity of the team. Too calculating for bottom line, not calculating enough for the long term fans. Everyone wants a Braves situation, but you know it takes more than just good young players for that -- at some point those good young players need to be around for more than their entry contract.

There are a lot of differing opinions but one that we’re all mostly uniform about is getting Bello and Casas locked up long term. Obviously, we don’t know how receptive each party is to giving up potential FA years but almost every young player has a price. Bello especially should be receptive given the overall SP injury risk.

If you want to give up on monster FA deals for elite talent, then you need to lock up every potential impact guy who matriculates.

We’ll see if the front office can get that done.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Broke this out of the McAdam thread. I'm sure I missed some post. Shoot me a PM with the post # when you find one please.

A spin-off thread from the McAdam thread...what are we doing.

Please start the Mookie subforum. Zombie Island this shit.

 

[scottyno]

The trade was a mistake before it ever happened. You don't need hindsight for it. Verdugo and Wong had limited upside beyond being cost controlled, and the only way the trade satisfies either fans or the on field product is if Jeter Downs turned into an every day short stop, a lot to assume about a guy with 12 games above A ball.

At the time of the trade Verdugo had just followed up a depending on which rankings you look at top 30ish prospect ranking with a 3 war season in 106 games his first full year with LA. He followed that up with a 2 war season in the covid shortened year in 53 games his first year in Boston. We can look back now and say that he never really improved from that, but I'm not sure how exactly at the time you could say that he had "limited upside beyond being cost controlled"

 

[radsoxfan]

Re projection Mookie's excess value, he had come back to earth a bit in 2019, I believe 2018 was his age-27 season so it wasn't necessarily likely that he would repeat that performance, and defensive metrics showed significant decline in 2019 so it was reasonable to be concerned about how well he would continue to defend when a lot of his value was in his defense.

This was honestly a reasonable take at the time, I don't think it was crazy that they didn't want to pay Mookie huge money long term. I was a Mookie believer but understood the risks and potential downside.

But now that we have another 4-5 years of data points, it turned out they were wrong in their evaluation. Mookie has already provided so much excess value they should have just gone all-in and signed him to a market rate contract.

It's OK to just admit the FO botched it, no need to rationalize the decision when we have so much additional data beyond 2019.

(thanks for breaking out the convo)

 

[grepal]

So what do we give up to get him back. Dodgers need salary relief. I propose we take him back and agree to pay for half of Yamomoto and we give up Abreu, Hickey and Yorke. Sounds even to me.

 

[Seels]

At the time of the trade Verdugo had just followed up a depending on which rankings you look at top 30ish prospect ranking with a 3 war season in 106 games his first full year with LA. He followed that up with a 2 war season in the covid shortened year in 53 games his first year in Boston. We can look back now and say that he never really improved from that, but I'm not sure how exactly at the time you could say that he had "limited upside beyond being cost controlled"

Much of his value was in defense, and tied to a stat that doesn't really pass the eye test or correlate with more advanced stats. WAR in general doesn't know what to do with the 2020 season, unless we're to believe that Joey Gallo was the 2nd coming of Andruw Jones and Nolan Arenado was having the single best defensive season ever.

 

[oumbi]

The worst impact that the Mookie trade had in my opinion is how it destroyed baseball discussion on the main board, which used to be thoroughly enjoyable and educational.

He was many posters’ favorite player, and it seems that a large percentage of the membership here decided that they were done with this ownership group after that move.

And so most threads turn into rehashing the Mookie trade.

I question born of curiosity - I was not on SoSH when Nomar was traded. Did SoSH react similarly to that trade as they have to Mookie's trade?

 

[Salem's Lot]

I question born of curiosity - I was not on SoSH when Nomar was traded. Did SoSH react similarly to that trade as they have to Mookie's trade?

Definitely not the same reaction. It was split but very different circumstances.

 

[opes]

So what do we give up to get him back. Dodgers need salary relief. I propose we take him back and agree to pay for half of Yamomoto and we give up Abreu, Hickey and Yorke. Sounds even to me.

Lol are you high? Why would the dodgers give up an MVP player plus elite pitcher for prospects? They don't need salary relief. They saved money just for the exact reason to get Ohtani plus extras. I've been here for nearly 20 years and this takes the cake. What if they toss in Ohtani too? Seems only fair.

 

[catomatic]

Lol are you high? Why would the dodgers give up an MVP player plus elite pitcher for prospects? They don't need salary relief. They saved money just for the exact reason to get Ohtani plus extras. I've been here for nearly 20 years and this takes the cake. What if they toss in Ohtani too? Seems only fair.

Um… Sarcasm meter on the fritz?

 

[Bongorific]

The worst impact that the Mookie trade had in my opinion is how it destroyed baseball discussion on the main board, which used to be thoroughly enjoyable and educational.

He was many posters’ favorite player, and it seems that a large percentage of the membership here decided that they were done with this ownership group after that move.

And so most threads turn into rehashing the Mookie trade.

Strictly speaking from a fan/interest perspective, my problem and lack of interest in the Red Sox these days stems from this:

There is no continuity in the core of this team. And that matters to me.

I started really following the Red Sox in 1995. In that year, they had Mo Vaughn and John Valentin at it’s core, along with new-comers Troy O’Leary and Tim Wakefield. Guys came and went, but those four were around for at least a few years, as we saw guys like Daubach added, and superstars like Pedro Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra joined the ranks - as did Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.

Vaughn, Valentin, Clemens, Canseco, O’Leary eventually left or faded into irrelevance, but there was always that bridge, and guys like Papi, Manny, Damon, Schilling filled that void. Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Youkilis, Papelbon, Ellsbury all joined the team while Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, Varitek, and Wakefield were all still here and relevant. Those guys bridged into Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, and Christian Vazquez. And those guys bridged into Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers.

But between 2020 and 2022, there was almost what seemed like a cutting of a cord - both gradual and instantaneous. You had the 2018 championship team - decimated via trade and free agency. Price and Mookie shipped out. Vazquez traded for nothing. X and JDM gone to free agency. Plenty of others gone, and sure, probably for the better. But a glance at our roster shows… what…? two players remaining from the last time the Red Sox were relevant - the shadow of Chris Sale, and Rafael Devers, signed to a contract that feels like it was made simply to prevent an all out riot amongst the fans - a brief reprieve before returning to the new “business as usual” model.

I really feel disconnected from the team as a whole, and would rather just root for the Dodgers - because at least they have Mookie Betts and David Roberts - plus it would be fun to root for Ohtani and Yamamoto. But I’m also not really interested in switching to a new team either. So at the end of the day, I will probably just continue not caring.

These are fair assessments. The Sox and Pats being simultaneously terrible and really freakin boring, after making Boston the nation’s most exciting sports town for 20 years, is having a compounding effect. Both lost a generational, face of the franchise talent and got the assessment wrong. Both are viewed as “cheap” for failing to sign or acquire elite talent since then and refusing to acknowledge the current market for such players.

I’ve been paying for mlb.tv for 15+ years now strictly to watch the Sox, but the last couple years I’d wager I spent more time watching other teams. I turn on the Sox and by the third inning I’m flipping around to watch Ohtani, Trout, J Rod, Acuna. And of course, Mookie.

 

[cantor44]

Sam Kennedy thanks you for your blind obedience PP. Seriously do you work for FSG? This is pretty easy to rip apart




Betts wanted Mike Trout money is a weird strawman. Besides Betts being the best player in baseball at the time, he didn't sign for Mike Trout money. Sure you can say he wanted Mike Trout money in the sense I would want Mike Trout money but to say there was no way to reason with him is ridiculous as he took a contract that right now looks extremely team friendly from another team. He is literally going to be 18th-20th AAV next year. What you meant to say was the Red Sox were not going to pay for an MVP even if you could tell the contract would trend in pretty affordable range.




So they could have maybe possibly become the disaster that it is today? But without that damn likable MVP, making watching the dogshit team somewhat watchable? Hate to find any joy in watching baseball. Ruins the patience.



Yes losing pathetically and getting your teeth kicked in year over year does help your draft position I give you that. That said, I am not sure a team with Mookie is a last place team. First off, if you aren't getting rid of Mookie for the Dodgers table scraps, you aren't bringing Bloom to the tank the team in the Process 2: Electric Bugaloo. So instead of the worst GM in baseball lets say they get a league average GM. A league average GM ias going to stay the course and not through bad money at mediocre talent over and over again for "financial flexibility".

Lets say the Red Sox grab Mookie on his old contract instead of trading him and instead of bringing in Story they keep Xander on the contract he has. That means that they don't get Yoshida, Verdugo, Story, or Wong. Also lets say Whitlock and Pivetta never get grabbed. Casas, Bello, Duran, and Houck are all on the team because they are all in the system pre Mookie trade. So they keep ERod, Xander, Betts, and Benintendi at their contracts today and fill with everyone in the system before Betts is traded.

Still the 2023 team looks like:

Benintendi LF
Duran CF
Mookie RF
Devers 3B
Bogaerts SS
FA 2B
Casas 1B
FA C
FA DH

Dalbec
Rafaela
Chang
FA
FA

ERod
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Sale

Matt Barnes
Darwin Hernandez
Chris Murphy
FA
FA
FA
FA
FA

So even with all that, you would have more than 45 million in cap space to fill out the roster and stay under the tax. 45 million*. Lets say the guys that left need additional 1 AAV to stay in Boston to be generous, that is more than 40 million. I added Barnes back because we paid him to play for the Marlins.

By the way Perales, Mata, and Winkleman are still in the system as is Noah Song. So even if Generic "keep the train running" GM doesn't touch anything, the pitching depth in about the same (though I doubt it doesn't get better). So yes the system doesn't have Mayer, Abreu, or Teel (Yorke and Anthony could easily be here or not) but otherwise it is probably not terribly different. Rafaela is still in the system.

*(There was a bit of rounding up to make the easier to digest. Competitive Cap is 26 man payroll through the year + 40 man minor players + bonus pool for 0-3 year players + Benefits which is around 16.5 million when you deep dive it is closer to 50 million)

I mean this blows your whole argument out of the water. That might need be a WS winning team depending on who you pick up but it is a shit ton better than where we are at. That was Bloom's mortal sin, overpaying mediocre talent trying to hit big. He lost almost every trade he was apart minus the Pivetta trade. He had a couple of cute pick ups like Whitlock. In the end in baseball three dimes are always less than a quarter.

Forgive the lack of an substantive addition here, but this is a great post.