Hey, Remember the Concussions Problem? I Wonder What Distracted Us...

[garzooma]

 The health risks associated with playing football are going to lead to less youth participation, which means less athletes, which means a worse product on the field, and this will bear out within a decade or so. Also, I really think we'll see players retire early (a la Patrick Willis) with more frequency. These factors, along with other health related issues (like lawsuits) will affect the product on the field and the bottom line for owners. I love football but it's a brutal sport and it will see changes that affect it's primacy in the American sports landscape.
 
 

 
As Sally Jenkins points out, the health risks associated with coal mining hasn't made it go away.  It just needs to be regulated.
 
I don't go overboard on the CTE issue, since, as someone here pointed out, Brady is playing for walking around money.  So it's not obvious that football is all that much more dangerous than other activities people engage in even when they don't have to, like skiing.  On the other hand, the NFL would have us believe that Tom is a perjurer and possibly delusional.  Which sure cuts the legs out from under that argument.

 

[ManicCompression]

Garzooma - I don't want to drag this discussion too far into CTE because it was a smaller part of my larger point, but I don't really think coal mining is analogous to professional football. Not many people dream of becoming a coal miner, and not many people move to West Virginia to fulfill that dream. Being an NFL level athlete is quite different and requires a set of skills that are much scarcer.

I don't mean to say that the NFL will go away from CTE, just that its product will diminish. What if the Peyton Mannings and Tom Bradys use that arm strength to get mlb contracts at age 18? Or 6'3 wide receivers focus on soccer? Or basketball? It won't happen overnight, but even if 15% of these athletes decide to pursue less dangerous athletic endeavors, it will be noticeable.

These things go in cycles and it's hard for me to believe that the NFL will occupy the same spot in the marketplace in the next decade. I'm willing to admit that I may be short-sighted, but I'm positive that it's a possible issue that owners see on the horizon.

 

[nighthob]

As Sally Jenkins points out, the health risks associated with coal mining hasn't made it go away.  It just needs to be regulated.
 
I don't go overboard on the CTE issue, since, as someone here pointed out, Brady is playing for walking around money.  So it's not obvious that football is all that much more dangerous than other activities people engage in even when they don't have to, like skiing.  On the other hand, the NFL would have us believe that Tom is a perjurer and possibly delusional.  Which sure cuts the legs out from under that argument.

Football's long-term problem, that the Artless Roger is blithely ignoring, is that regulation will take the form of bans on kids playing (which, I think, was MC's point). The move is already underway in the northeast, and once this becomes a medical issue the federal government is going to step in and start issuing the regulations themselves. The long term guess is that what we end up with is a ban on kids playing football prior to their 16th birthday, which is going to have some repercussions on the NFL that people know and love.

A smart commissioner would be getting out in front of this issue and working with the Pop Warner and other youth leagues to create a safer environment, and working with the various state athletic associations to help craft an environment that everyone can live with at the JV/Varsity level. Unfortunately for the NFL they have Goodell who is going to keep fiddling until it's too late. What happens in 15-20 years when kids aren't playing full contact football at all until their last year of high school or so? Or what happens if Goodell really fucks the poodle and the fed makes the age of consent 18? (I mean besides the deep south seceding again.) Then the NFL will slowly transform into that crappy replacement football, and god knows if it will still have the same popularity.

 

[Jinhocho]

If you guys want, I can ask my wife to answer any questions on concussions she can. She has been the neuroimager on the unc-nfl concussion study for the past five years or so. She has scanned the brains of numerous nfl former players, briefed (as part of a team) the commissioner on the issue, and done some otherwise cool research on the issue of head trauma and sports.

 

[ManicCompression]

I didn't mean to imply that I thought regulation would take down the NFL (though I suppose it's not out of the realm of possibility). I think it'll be more organic, with parents of top, young athletes encouraging their children to pursue other sports. This doesn't need to happen to 100% of young athletes to affect the NFL, but if 5-10% choose other sports, that idea will spread to other athletes, and then spread further, etc. What if, starting in 2020, every season plays like a diluted expansion team season? The bottom of NFL rosters would be littered with guys who wouldn't sniff the league in 2010. Would fans be as engaged with the NFL? I probably wouldn't.
 
That's why Goodell is the perfect commissioner for this specific set of owners. Kraft very much included. He cares about the brand of "the shield" only as much as it affects the bottom line now. The future of the NFL, of football, beyond the near term, is inconsequential to these people. They just want to grab as much cash as they can before the bubble bursts. Goodell ONLY makes empty gestures to encourage safety because safety doesn't matter right now. If he gets in front of youth leagues, he's admitting that football is dangerous, and the wall that mentally allows the average fan to watch huge, muscular men bash into each other for many hours of the year would start to crumble. A "Play 60" commercial is "Hey kids, get out there and play FOOTBALL! It's FUN! Here's a smiling Cam Newton". Goodell actually doing something meaningful about game safety reminds us that Cam is going to be taking prescription pain meds for the rest of his life. 
 
So, for these 32 owners, I don't think that Goodell is fucking the poodle. He's doing an amazing job. It's frustrating to listen to people say "Anyone can do Goodell's job - the NFL prints money." Not everyone could do Goodell's job because most people have a relationship with morality and ethics. We have a deeply ingrained, human intuition that tells us to do the right thing for struggling ex-players, or young children, or military vets, or victims of domestic abuse, or drug addicts, or even the fans who really enjoy watching football. Goodell possesses an incredible will to be defiant against anything approaching human morality, so his PR driven, half-assed attempts at "problem-solving" put issues to bed momentarily but never actually address them. That is the ideal solution for NFL owners and it will be that way until the league reaches its "one more mint" limit. 

 

[dbn]

Wait, what? Concussion problem?
 
That sounds vaguely familiar but my memory isn't what it used to be. I do remember playing H.S. football, and a little bit of the 22 yrs since, but nothing about tacos. What were talking about again?

 

[soxfan121]

If you guys want, I can ask my wife to answer any questions on concussions she can. She has been the neuroimager on the unc-nfl concussion study for the past five years or so. She has scanned the brains of numerous nfl former players, briefed (as part of a team) the commissioner on the issue, and done some otherwise cool research on the issue of head trauma and sports.

 
ITP would LOVE to interview her. 

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

He's doing an amazing job. It's frustrating to listen to people say "Anyone can do Goodell's job - the NFL prints money." Not everyone could do Goodell's job because most people have a relationship with morality and ethics.

This is a beautiful statement that I will take with me tonight under the covers after the kids go to bed. My sons will be 12 and 10 this fall and both want to play football. So far I'm holding strong with a "no" but it's killing me. They have the best time throwing the ball around in the backyard with me and playing rec/db against each other with dad thinking he's Tom Brady. I take solace in knowing, in my parental opinion, I am doing what is best for them.

 

[ifmanis5]

Autopsy: Ex-NFL lineman Adrian Robinson Jr., who killed himself at 25, had chronic brain injury http://t.co/bmNOG4wE3o
— AP NFL (@AP_NFL) October 14, 2015