Ed Hillel said:
Ok, I see what you are saying. I just think the contract is fine even if he tanks. If he starts producing again, it's one of the better contracts in the league. It's a gamble, I just wouldn't call it massive.
It is a gamble the Sox are more than capable of taking financially, I just don't think the centerpiece of a deal for 1.5 years of John Lackey should be a 20M+ gamble. If they got Craig for Peavy that would be one thing, getting him and Kelly for Lackey is disappointing.
But who knows, maybe the Sox really like Kelly. I never have because he has a penchant for just suddenly losing command of his fastball at random times in the middle of outings. I've seen so many of his starts where he's doing fine, looks like he's dealing through the first few frames, then suddenly just lays an absolute egg around the 4th-6th inning and gives up a crooked number in the middle of a close game.
He could be a lights out reliever and he's under team control for a good long time (2016 arb guy per BRef), so I guess you can't really complain too much, there is a good chance half the AAA contingent we're all wishing upon a star over won't even be good relievers in the majors, Kelly is likely at least that. Hopefully Farrell and Nieves can work some magic and help him find something other than the fastball/curve combo if he's to remain a starter.