Hauser is our Leon Powe, just one year further into his career and better than Powe was.
Hot and Not Hot Cs Takes...Will They Age Well?
- Thread starter Shaky Walton
- Start date
..are those benches that bad? They seem pretty good to me? (All of those players are good to really good rotation pieces with the exception of Bryn Forbes and Jeff Green...so yes the Nuggets had a bad 7 and 8th man)
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The implication of that is: if Brad cannot add his Cassell and Brown, this team is fucked. Would you agree with that statement? Brad must add 2 vets who can take on regular bench roles without subtracting any of our top 7?
The idea that the two players at the end of your rotation are the lynchpin for winning or not winning a championship is, I believe, fairly unique to you.
I mean....I too would like to have all the good players and be 10 deep? I hope Brad can make some acquisitions at the right price.
However, the recent history of championship rosters, as well as the minutes distribution of playoff teams, suggest that "fucked" is wayyyy too strong.
I don’t think you need to look hard through back posts on this board to find people who aren’t me saying that, for example, Pritchard is unplayable in the playoffs. If you can with with him, he’s by definition “playable.”
Assuming the starters are healthy for the playoffs, with a tightened rotation, Al and Hauser, with a small dose of Pritchard should be sufficient, if not ideal. Signing a starter level (or top seven in a rotation level) piece at the deadline would be ideal. Luckily there is enough position versatility in the top six players that this addition can play any position, although a big will be idea.
I think there's one absolutely major factor that you're completely ignoring... one of the reasons the bench had to play so many minutes for the 2008 Celtics was because their three major stars were all over 30 (edit: looking at the number again the difference isn't quite as stark...they did play quite a bit of time). I don't think if Pierce, KG and Allen were in their mid 20s that the bench would have played nearly as much.
The current Celtics team has two players over 30... 2008 had 7. The stars of the celtics are in their primes more or less.. Holiday is a bit older. The bench is pretty much the same or younger. Cassell played a lot of minutes when he came over.. but 2023 has Holiday already. PP is basically House. Al is essentially Posey. The obvious main difference is that Tatum and Brown have to score.. Tatum especially. KP's numbers are similar to KG. DW is a similar to Rondo. Hauser, as others have said, plays more minutes and scores similar to Posey.. he's also on pace to play a lot more games in the regular season.
I think the other idea is that of experience... I haven't looked into the numbers, but I'd imagine the top six players have quite a bit of experience in the playoffs.. and I'd bet a lot more experience than the 2008 team at similar ages, but I'd have to look.
Minutes/Points/Games
Pierce (30) 35.9/19.6/80 - Tatum (25) 37/27.7/18 (extrapolates to 82 games) - Pierce played 39.2 mpg at 25
Garnett (31) 32.8/18.8/71 - JB (27) 34.5/21.9/17 (77 games) - KG played 39.4 at 27
Allen (32) 35.9/17.4/73 - KP (28) 30.3/18.9/15 (68 games) - Allen played 38.4 at 28
Rondo (21) 29.9/10.6/77 - DW (29) 32.2/13.9/15 (68 games)
Powe (24) 14.4/7.9/56 - JH (33) 34.5/12.4/16 (73 games)
Cassell (38) 17.6/7.6/17 - Hauser (26) 22.8/9.7/18 (82 games)
House (29) 19.0/7.5/78 - Horford (37) 25.8/6.9/16 (73 games)
Posey (31) 24.6/7.4/74 - Pritchard (26) 20.6/6.3/18 (82 games)
Perkins (23) 24.5/6.9/78 - Kornet (28) 13.5/4.6/13 (59 games)
Allen (26) 18.3/6.6/75 - Queta (24) 10/3.5/2 (9 games)
Big Baby (22) 13.6/4.5/69 - Banton (24) 8.8/3.5/8 (36 games)
P.J. Brown (38) 11.6/2.2/18 - Svi (26) 7.4/2.0/8 (36 games)
Pruitt (21) 6.3/2.1/15 - Brissett (25) 11.3/1.8/8 (36 games)
Scal (29) 10.7/1.8/48 - Stevens (26) 3.3/1.5/6 (27 games)
Pollard (32) 7.9/1.8/22
Edit 2: (it's sort of shocking that KG led all scorers at 20.4/game, Pierce 19.7, Allen 15.6, Rondo 10.2.. then a bunch of players in and around 5-6)
2008 in the playoffs:
Pierce 38.1
Allen 38.0
Garnett 38.0
Rondo 32.0
Perk 25.2
Posey 22.0
P.J 13.6
Cassell 12.6
Powe 11.7
Davis 8.1
House 7.9
Allen 4.3
In last years playoffs
Tatum was at 27.2 on 40 mpg
Brown 22.7 on 37.6
Smart 14.9 on 34
DW 13.4 on 29.7
Brogdon 11.9 on 24.9
RW 7.7 on 20.9
Horford 6.7 on 30.9
I think adding KP to replace Smart and Holiday to replace Brogdon should be adds...plus more minutes for White. As others have said.. having essentially 6 starters and Al before getting to Hauser and PP is a pretty big difference. Hauser should see a big boost in minutes from last year.
PP is a question.. but I think/hope that Joe and his assistants are mapping out how to use him in the playoffs...as well as other bench players as they see various matchups.
The main factor is that the top 6 have to be healthy and Tatum has to be playoff Tatum.
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The main reason for the minutes distribution in 2008 was blowouts and Doc switching up bench minutes. It's really pretty simple actually. Outside of blowouts, the C's were playing a 7-8 man rotation.
Hawks series:
Game 1, win by 23: Cassell was the 8th guy at 16 minutes. Allen played 9 minutes (nobody else was above 4)
Game 2, win by 19: Glen Davis was the 7th man at 14 minutes, but you also had Powe at 13, Cassell at 11 and Brown at 9.
Game 3, loss by 9: Big Baby was 7th man at 16 minutes, Cassel was 8th at 15, Brown and Powe played 6 minutes each
Game 4, loss by 5: Posey was the 7th guy at 18 minutes, Cassell and House were #8 and #9 and they both played 6 minutes. Big Baby played 5 minutes, Allen and Brown didn't play at all.
Game 5, win by 25: Posey played 20 minutes as #7, Cassell got 15 minutes, Brown played 7 minutes, and Baby/Allen both played 5 minutes
Game 6, loss by 3: Cassell played 20 minutes as #7, Powe played 15 minutes. Brown played 4 minutes, the other 3 guys (Baby/Allen/House) played a total of 2 minutes combined.
Game 7, Win by 34: Powe played 22 minutes as #7, Brown played 13, Allen played 11, House played 10, Baby played 9...
Cavs Series:
Game 1, win by 4: Cassell played 18 as the #7, Powe played 13 minutes, nobody else played more than 4 minutes.
Game 2, win by 16: Cassell as the #7 played 25 minutes, Posey as the #8 played 21 minutes, Brown played 5:47
Game 3, lose by 24: Cassell played 18 minutes as the #7, Powe played 15 as the #8, Brown played 10, House played 6
Game 4, lose by 11, PJ Brown played as the 6th man in this one, and played almost 23 minutes, Posey played 19, Cassell played 14 minutes
Game 5, win by 7: Posey played 17 as the 6th man, Baby played 11 minutes, Brown played 7 minutes. Nobody else played more than 5:29
Game 6, lose by 5: House played 18 minutes as the 6th, Baby played 17, Posey played 14 and Brown played 8. Nobody else played, including Cassell, Allen and Powe.
Game 7, win by 5: Posey played 26, Brown played 18, House played 15, Powe played 6:37. Nobody else played, Cassell, Allen, Baby
I dont have time to do the other series right now, but eyeballing it, it's more of the same. Doc was constantly tinkering throughout the playoffs on who would play minutes coming off the bench on a given night, resulting in a bunch of guys with minutes, but the reality is every close game was a pretty tight 7-8 man rotation.
100% agreed.
People get hung up on PP, but White, Jrue, and Tatum are all playoff ball handlers. If PP gets hot from 3 then he has a role.
Since there won't be anything gettable better than their TOP7, a trade is probably just injury insurance
No. My point was if you want to find a young player the Celtics developed from a second round pick into a member of our playoff rotation, we already have that. More generally, Hauser and Horford cover the roles that PJ, Posey, Powe, and Big Baby collectively covered in 2008. We also don’t need a veteran point guard on the bench because we have two starting for us (unlike the 2008 team that had a young, untested Rondo). Pritchard is good enough to play 10-15 mpg if we want/need that and Kornet is perfectly fine as an option if we end up needing extra minutes from a big for foul/matchup reasons. The bench is differently constituted, but it doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses and this team doesn’t have a depth problem.
Hauser: 22.8 mpg, 7.2 fga, 6.4 3ptfga, .426 3ptfg%, 9.7 pts, 2.6 reb
Not so bad. Wonder what his three point percentage would be with higher usage. His per-36 numbers each of the three years he's been in the NBA have been remarkably consistent in terms of 3-point attempts:
21-22: 10.0
22-23: 9.3
23-24: 10.1
He's currently on pace for 1,822 minutes, which would eclipse his minute load from last year (1,290). And last year his 3-point percentage went down from the year before:
21-22: .432
22-23: .418
23-24: .426
So it's been consistent but as he plays more minutes and the season drags on, will he continue to shoot this well or will he drop off to the .400 or below range?
Not so bad. Wonder what his three point percentage would be with higher usage. His per-36 numbers each of the three years he's been in the NBA have been remarkably consistent in terms of 3-point attempts:
21-22: 10.0
22-23: 9.3
23-24: 10.1
He's currently on pace for 1,822 minutes, which would eclipse his minute load from last year (1,290). And last year his 3-point percentage went down from the year before:
21-22: .432
22-23: .418
23-24: .426
So it's been consistent but as he plays more minutes and the season drags on, will he continue to shoot this well or will he drop off to the .400 or below range?
The Celtics' bench reminds me a bit of those Spurs benches. Setting aside a nominal bench player in Manu, you had a series of post-peak veteran bigs (Horry, McDyess, Diaw). Horford is obviously better than any of those guys, but your needs are different with Tim Duncan in the frontcourt. After that you had a bunch of very specific role players, typically straight up spot shooters who could play defense. Pritchard playing the role of the former slam dunk contest winner Brent Barry, etc.
Hauser's 3pt stroke is honed. His body of work is long and consistent. He's the definition of a knockdown 3pt sniper.
He has shot over 40% for 7 straight years. In college, he was 309/704 for 44%. He played big minutes so doubt his shot would waiver if asked to play more minutes
'16 Marquette 45%
'17 Marquette 49%
'18 Marquette 40% (red shirt season)
'20 UVA 42%
'21 Celtics 43% (& he shot 43% for the Maine Red Claws)
'22 Celtics 42%
'23 Celtics 43%
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/sam-hauser-1.html
The comp people should use for Hauser is Kyle Korver (43% for his career)
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/korveky01.html
As opposed to someone like Max Strus, who is a career 37% 3pt shooter. Max has only one season of shooting 41%, otherwise he has never had another 40%+ season in the NBA/G-League/NCAA
The reason I use Strus is due to their defensive ability which allows them to be on the floor for big minutes if necessary. While I was writing this someone just dribble drove past Korver then drop stepped him for a quick 4 points in some rec league game.
My favorite Sam Hauser college stat: #1 Def Rtg in the Big East for 2018-19. Then Hauser joined Tony Bennett's UVA team which usually plays the best defense in college basketball.
I wasn't taking a shot at Max, he has a different skill set. He's much more physical, handles the ball, likes to dive around, etc.
SH just lives on the perimeter, moves the ball if he doesn't have a shot, and then every once in a while he turns into SLAM Hauser.
Kyle Korver was born 10yrs too early, he only launched more than 6 3PA/gm once in his 17yr career
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My hot take for the day is this: White and Horford have a single-minded focus on winning. I'm not sure who else on the team does, but Tatum and Brown do not. The Celtics can be beaten by a defense that pushes them out of their comfort zone or by shitting officiating because they get distracted.
Man this is def a white hot take..
Edit: I mean.. Tatum and Brown were both literally taken out of games by shitty officiating …and it’s your take that that’s a deficiency in Brown and Tatum.
I would have simply time-traveled to the future and realized the ref was completely insane, and so not gotten the 2nd tech.
No mental toughness or commitment to winning. Not like my son's little league baseball team--I keep those little fuckers whipped into shape.
No mental toughness or commitment to winning. Not like my son's little league baseball team--I keep those little fuckers whipped into shape.
My hot take is that those who continuously complain about this Celtics team should find another team to root for that only has players that really want to win. Among the other 29 teams in the league there must be at least one that wins all of its games in wire to wire blowouts, doesn’t get thrown off by bad calls, makes all of their FTs, and never turns the ball over.
Tatum, at least, had 3 full quarters to see that the refs were operating on a hair trigger, and it didn't stop him from getting himself tossed. The Brown ejection came with much less warning so wasn't as bad. But if that was all I was talking about I wouldn't have posted it.
Yeah.. it’s Tatum’s fault he got thrown out in a situation where no other nba star is thrown out for doing what he did..
I have no idea how you quantify that Tatum and Brown are somehow less focused where White and Horford are not.. but that take does fall in line with decades of some Boston fans being hyper critical of our best players because of reasons. I suppose when White turns the ball over or misses a FT it’s probably because he cares too much whereas Brown and Tatum just aren’t focused on winning enough.
I just don't get this at all. Reeks of desk jockey calling professional athletes laying it on the line soft. It stinks and it sucks.
Similarly, Simmons this week claimed the Cs have “major issues” and that he trusts Miami more to come out of the East.
Imagine if the Cs weren’t on a 62-63 win pace!
Imagine if the Cs weren’t on a 62-63 win pace!
Oh, good, we are apparently policing hot takes now. Thou shalt not criticize Jayson Tatum. I forgot.
My hot take, that will age well:
The sooner the JAYs recognize the talent around them, the better, especially in the half-court offense.
Tatum went into a dribble-fest, early shot clock, step-back 3. CJM called a TO afterward. I doubt one had to do with the other but it made me chuckle.
This isn't a swipe at Tatum or Brown (they both work hard & desperately want to win) they just need to lean on their teammates a bit more. They are still the TOP offensive options
The sooner the JAYs recognize the talent around them, the better, especially in the half-court offense.
Tatum went into a dribble-fest, early shot clock, step-back 3. CJM called a TO afterward. I doubt one had to do with the other but it made me chuckle.
This isn't a swipe at Tatum or Brown (they both work hard & desperately want to win) they just need to lean on their teammates a bit more. They are still the TOP offensive options
Last playoffs, Tatum averaged 27/11/5 on a 59% TS, with under 3 TO’s a game, and a +12.1 on/off, more than twice as good as the next person.
In “clutch” moments last playoffs, he had a 67% TS with 4 assists and 2 turnovers. Jokic, who is the best player on earth, had a 49% TS with 9 assists and 3 turnovers in clutch situations in those same playoffs.
You don’t even have an argument for this, other than being over the top negative.
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The Celtics half court offense has been awesome, especially when Tatum is on the court.
I don’t understand the bunching of them together, just because their names start with Jay. Tatum has involved everyone for years, if anything he’s been too passive this season. Jaylen is taking the right steps, but he’s still well behind the rest of the the team. I will say though, I think he’s trying harder than he ever has to not force shots, and play within the offense.
One of the Celtics issues on offense this year is just that they’ve sucked in transition lol. It makes no sense, but they are 19th percentile in points per possession. The last column is the individual players percentile in transition scoring, Al being second is kind of funny tbh.
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Thats fair
Tatum is a much better player than Brown. They really shouldn't get lumped together.
Tatum has the greenest of green lights when he is attacking the rim or firing Catch & Shoot 3s in the halfcourt.
My pushback comes from the ISO-dribbles into the step-back 3s, which has been an inefficient shot for years now. It gets compounded when Brown takes his TURN to do the same nonsense. They just need to say NO to the between-the-legs Harden Step-Back & YES to moving the ball to Jrue, KP, White, Horford, Hauser, PP & the other JAY in the middle of the shot clock.
Make or miss, the defense has won that possession when the JAYs settle for that shot.
To me, it’s all about the context of the pull-up. If we are playing a drop defense, I want Tatum and even Jaylen to take those, because it’s dribbling into an in rhythm three, and usually softens up the drop some. Last night Mitchell Robinson came out and fouled Tatum on one, because the drop was getting abused.
But the dancing out on the wings then taking a contested 29 footer? Nah fuck that lol, we have better options now. They are both guilty of this, especially Tatum, who I would guess shoots 35-40% on pull-ups against the drop, and like 15-20% when dancing on the wings lol.
I don’t get why the team struggles so much in transition, Jaylen averages the same PPP in transition that Tatum does in isolation lol. To me, that screams that he should dribble out on some of them, or hit someone else.
As per the post above that counters your opinions and anecdotal evidence with actual stats.. did you?
Edit: if I’m being honest though.. I don’t usually watch the games live anymore.. I find it too stressful.
I do think that calling getting to game 7 in the ecf a failure is a matter of perspective. It is my opinion that if Tatum didn’t get hurt in the first minute that they probably get to the finals.
He also played almost the entire game without being able to put weight on one of his ankles, if that doesn’t scream “I’ll do anything to win”, I don’t know what to tell ya. It certainly wasn’t because he was chucking up shots and trying to boost his stats.
People are so weird about both Jaylen and Tatum lol.
They were both too good, too young.
Jaylen was awesome in that 2018 almost-Finals run, in his 2nd season, and then made a huge leap in season 4, again almost getting them to the Finals.
Tatum was the #1 player on an almost-Finals team as a 19 year-old, and we know what he's done since.
Then you take someone like SGA, who feels like he's the leader of an exciting, up-and-coming team, with no negative narratives. All NBA! Best scoring guard in the league! Team is winning.....
.....and he's the same age as Tatum, who has a resume that SGA could only dream of.
I feel like there’s a difference between a hot take, and a flaming white hot take with no real evidence.
But it’s definitely an opinion thing, that’s why I just try to debate lol.
"From everyone who has been given much, much will be demanded; and from the one who has been entrusted with much, much more will be asked"
As far as the Jaylen criticism, making 2nd team All NBA probably puts unreasonable expectations on him if anyone considers him a TOP15 player (as it may imply).
I mean I get that they won by double digits and won three out of the four quarters BUT I prefer it when execution is perfect and exactly in the form I want. This was definitely not that. Its a 0.5 star win/5.
There are hot takes, then there's claiming that the team's two best players aren't focused enough on winning. Two guys who by the way have played in more playoff games than anyone else in the league before the age of 30 (other than old friend Marcus Smart), have been 100% fine with seeing their usage rate dip this year as they've gotten better teammates, and both of whom are still somehow the youngest players in the top 6 of the rotation. This isn't a hot take, it's game thread reactionary bullshit triggered by both guys getting ejections in the last week. Even criticizing them for that comes with a grain of sand because they've now got just 3 combined ejections in 1,149 games and the team WON both of the games in which they were ejected. There are legit criticisms of this team and those players to be found, but saying they don't care enough about winning isn't a hot take, it's a weirdly personal attack with no basis.
Tatum and Jaylen were third and fourth on the team in usage last night. Imagine if they cared about winning, Tatum can be GS Iggy, and Jaylen can be Harrison Barnes.
IMO, the All-NBA thing only matters in the sense that it got him the contract at a time when people can say “He’s the highest paid player in the NBA!” Which gives a narrative that casual fans can throw against him
I posted this in another thread but I am going to post it here because I really think it’s true.
Jaylen is in a weird spot because if you casually follow basketball and the NBA, you turn on the game and you see a guy dribble off of his foot and lose the ball and you go “wow…this is supposed to be a top 30 player?! He sucks!”
If you don’t trust your own eyes and rely almost completely on statistics then you look at your various advanced stats and go “Yeah, this guy is overrated”….which is compounded by the dribbling off of the foot type turnovers.
I truly think this is 80% of the angst around him. There are other factors for sure…familiarity breeds contempt and he’s been in Boston his entire career, he’s clearly the redheaded step child compared to Tatum, his contract and then the whole Kyrie thing to name a few.
For as loud as the anti Jaylen contingent is, there is definitely a pretty large group of them for Tatum as well. Dan Greenberg and his following on Twitter are well known for leaning anti Tatum, and refusing to criticize Jaylen.
The sports radio crowd tends to be all over both of them.
It’s weirdo behavior from all sides lol. Part of having more expectations is harsher criticism, but there’s a line that this fan base definitely crosses, IMO.
The sports radio crowd tends to be all over both of them.
It’s weirdo behavior from all sides lol. Part of having more expectations is harsher criticism, but there’s a line that this fan base definitely crosses, IMO.
Celtics have now almost entirely wiped out their tough home/road balance from earlier (10 home games vs 11 road games so far), but they've still had the hardest strength of schedule by opponent win% thus far. It's hard to be legitimately unhappy about too much so far this year.
