While also having the second best record in the NBA while also having two of their stars miss multiple games with some overlapping.
Hot and Not Hot Cs Takes...Will They Age Well?
- Thread starter Shaky Walton
- Start date
Against Miami, and ignoring game 7 when he was playing hurt, he averaged 4 turnovers a game. During the losses (games 1, 2, and 3), he had more turnovers than assists. He also shot a paltry 23% from three on a ton of attempts (10 of 43) in games 1-6. He still had good counting stats (27.2/10.2/5.7) owing to getting to the line in most games. But if Tatum can take care of the ball and hit threes, Boston advances. He let the team down and I have seen little from him to suggest any focus at all on cleaning up his costly weaknesses.
Most of Tatum's offensve numbers have trended upward as his career has progressed. The glaring execption is his shooting threes if not off the catch. He takes more and more of them each year and his percentage drops lower and lower. That trend has continued into this year despite the addition of more offensive weapons. The kind of player he wants to be or thinks he must be is an alpha who bombs away from three, but all he does is waste possessions.
And I wonder if he spent this offseason taking ballhandling lessons from Jaylen Brown. This far this season his turnover percentage is a career high, depite the fact that his usage rate is the lowest it has been in over 3 seasons. He had a recent 8 game stretch where he averaged 4.6 turnovers per game. Last season he had 6 games where he turned the ball over more than 5 times. This season were are only one quarter of ghe way in and he already has four such games.
As good as he may be, he's a player who can be gameplanned for and limited in the playoffs. And if he is focused on improving those weaknesses, it doesn't show up at all in his play.
Everyone can be gameplanned for or limited in the playoffs lol, especially early on. Lebron was, Steph was, Giannis, etc. everyone has dealt with it, until they aren’t.
Despite the pull-up numbers, he’s averaging 28 a game on a 62% TS. Jokic has a TS of 60%, and shoots 30% from three, yet he still takes them. Players take the shots they take, for the most part.
The issue in the Miami series was that the team managed to have a -29.0 net rating when Tatum sat. 4 turnovers a game isn’t really a huge deal when you’re averaging 27/10/6 on a 60% TS, which were his numbers through 6 games. That’s elite playoff efficiency, even with the threes not falling.
But yeah, him and Jaylen don’t care enough about winning. That’s an embarrassingly bad take, not a hot one.
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Yeah, I come on here or Twitter sometimes and think "maybe Rick Pitino made some good points?"
"Until they aren't" doesn't happen for every player.
"Don't care about winning" is not what I said, to be clear.
Tatum 298-162, 0.6478
JB 310-180, 0.6326
Steph 587-317, 0.649
LeBron 937-506, 0.649
Derrick White 210-153, 0.5785
Al Horford, 629-403, 0.609
Jordan 706-366, 0.65858
For two guys that's aren't singularly focused on winning.. they do a lot of winning.
One thing about winning vs not winning.. losing 4 out of 10 is pretty normal but still good.. losing only 3-1/2 puts you in the company of some of the best players ever.
Will be interesting to see Tatum in the playoffs this year if the team is fully healthy. Given how bad some of the team was shooting in the playoffs.. it's not shocking that Miami could focus more on Tatum. If the team is fully healthy the other team won't be able to focus on any one of them.
I think I understood what you meant to say but I think it what was worded very poorly
So did those players I listed care about winning more than Tatum and Jaylen? Even though they all had their own awful playoff moments?
You have no point, you have no argument. You just overreact, which is well known. What Tatum has dealt with in the playoffs isn’t unique, it’s happened to almost every superstar.
Don't think this post should get lost in all of this. The 'you can't criticize Tatum' idea.. as if he's above criticism to those that support him or that any criticism of him is hopped on unfairly. To me... if one is to say that Tatum isn't singularly focused on winning.. or something similar.. one should be able to point to anything that shows that's true.
One can argue that he may disappear in some playoff games or doesn't always take the best shots etc. But when one makes those arguments they should be able to back them up.. rather than bringing out the 'I forgot you can't criticize Tatum' sword.
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On another note EJ.. yesterday I was thinking that I'm coming around to one of your takes that the Celts need (at least) one more vet. (Especially since Joe seems to trust/play vets a lot more). I think they need another big (4/5) that can take up some minutes, but do the dirty work of rebounding, setting picks, occasionally shooting, etc. Their top 6-8 are pretty great, but another player would be a great add. Just not sure who that player is or how the Celts could add them.
The Cellar clearly needs Richard White
https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/12/8/23993519/derrick-white-father-richard-white-aims-to-make-celtics-twitter-a-little-less-angsty
https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/12/8/23993519/derrick-white-father-richard-white-aims-to-make-celtics-twitter-a-little-less-angsty
Hot take, Luke is actually pretty good, and has great chemistry with Tatum, Pritchard, and Hauser.
I believe that is Andre Drummond, who I still see Celtics fans saying we should try and trade for.
He is still an insane rebounder, but he’s horrible at everything else.
Pretty sure Eddie woke up this morning and said, "I'm gonna stir up some shit on SoSH today." And it worked. 
That's like saying the CHB woke up this morning and said "I'm gonna stir up some shit in the Globe today".Pretty sure Eddie woke up this morning and said, "I'm gonna stir up some shit on SoSH today." And it worked.
I believe this. Kornet really suffers from the eye test. The guy looks like a complete stiff and runs like he doesn’t have an athletic bone in his body. I mean he looks like the Shawn Bradley Monstar from Space Jam. Just a completely goofy dope who should be playing in a Y
Buy he knows where to be and takes up a lot of space. I think he’s fine as a 3rd big man
OK, I'll have another go.
I think Tatum (and all of this applies to Brown as well, maybe moreso) has a certain image of himself as an NBA superstar. What he can do and what he must do and what a star's job is to do, etc. And he actually is an NBA superstar which is helpful. But it doesn't all line up. How he should play in the best interest of the team vs how he thinks he should play vs how he actually does play... all different. And that's a problem. It's not a 'regular season when the team is healthy' problem. But unless he figures it out, which first requires him wanting to figure it out, then he is maybe hitting a ceiling - a ceiling that is too low for a championship team.
The beginning of this year was actually very encouraging. He was posting up more than he had in the past and with high efficiency, for example. I think he used to play "smaller" then he needed to given his size, and in the earlier part of this year there was more of him just bullying through mismatches.
But in the last few weeks he has regressed pretty hard. Less posting up, more jacking up threes that he hits at a low percentage while also becoming a tunrover machine. The awesome on/off split he had through the first few weeks more or less vanished. On the year - and 21 games is enough of a season for it to be more than a statistical fluke - he's not going to the line as much (and this is the first year in his career when he has shot below 80% from the line).
And I just wonder whether he gets it. Does he want to be/see himself as a great off the dribble shooter? He's not one and likely never will be one.
After 8 games, Tatum had 2.6 post up scoring possessions per game. For the season, he’s at 2.8, which I believe means that he’s done it more since the beginning of the year. And he is *checks notes* still 94th percentile in post up efficiency, 4th in the league of guys who do it at least once a game.
Early in the year, he hit his pull-up threes, the last 7 games, he has not. He was at 36% on pull-ups through 14 games, and is at 15.4% the last 7. That’s the only difference since early in the season, very simple. Here’s another fun fact, he was taking 5.9 pull-up threes per game through the first 14, and has taken 5.4 since. So he’s actually taken less pull-ups as the season has gone on.
It’s seeing what you want to see. And as I’ve shown on here recently, Tatum’s bizarro bad on/off streak from the last 15 games is mostly explained by a case of extreme shooting variance by the other team.
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According to cleaning the glass:
Tatum's usage is slight down (in absolute terms and drop from 99th to 97th, which is to be expected, I think, given personnel changes) while his PSA is slightly up in absolute and relative terms. No major changes either way.
His assist percentage is slightly down, in both absolute and relative terms (down from 20.5% to 18.2%, his lowest leve since the bubble year, and from 93rd percentile to 84th). Assists/usage also down some in absolute and relative terms. I'm not sure which way the personnel changes cut in this case. More people to pass to but also more people to do the passing.
But his turnover percentage has spiked and that is unambigiously bad. At 12.7%, this is well above his previous career worst, set in his rookie year (11.4%). It puts him 28th percentile among NBA forwards, well below average. Last year he was at 10.7%, good for 51st percentile. That's a real decline, and in an area of team playoff weakness.
His eFG% is up in absolute and relative terms, aided by improvements in his midrange shooting - and specifically his long midrange shooting. His short mid shooting has actually gotten worse.
His percentage of assisted shots has fallen dramatically, from 56% last year to 41% this year. His percentage of assisted shots has fallen for every type of shot (rim, mid range, three). Perhaps that explains the increased turnover number.
His free throw shooting has slipped conderiably and he draws fewer floor and shooting fouls.
Defensively, he has slipped from above avrage to below in block and steal percentage, and he's slipped from merely below average to bottom 10% in offensive rebounding. Defensive rebounding is roughly the same.
Altogether not sure what to make of all of this.
Tatum's usage is slight down (in absolute terms and drop from 99th to 97th, which is to be expected, I think, given personnel changes) while his PSA is slightly up in absolute and relative terms. No major changes either way.
His assist percentage is slightly down, in both absolute and relative terms (down from 20.5% to 18.2%, his lowest leve since the bubble year, and from 93rd percentile to 84th). Assists/usage also down some in absolute and relative terms. I'm not sure which way the personnel changes cut in this case. More people to pass to but also more people to do the passing.
But his turnover percentage has spiked and that is unambigiously bad. At 12.7%, this is well above his previous career worst, set in his rookie year (11.4%). It puts him 28th percentile among NBA forwards, well below average. Last year he was at 10.7%, good for 51st percentile. That's a real decline, and in an area of team playoff weakness.
His eFG% is up in absolute and relative terms, aided by improvements in his midrange shooting - and specifically his long midrange shooting. His short mid shooting has actually gotten worse.
His percentage of assisted shots has fallen dramatically, from 56% last year to 41% this year. His percentage of assisted shots has fallen for every type of shot (rim, mid range, three). Perhaps that explains the increased turnover number.
His free throw shooting has slipped conderiably and he draws fewer floor and shooting fouls.
Defensively, he has slipped from above avrage to below in block and steal percentage, and he's slipped from merely below average to bottom 10% in offensive rebounding. Defensive rebounding is roughly the same.
Altogether not sure what to make of all of this.
I'm not either though I would bet the majority is small sample noise mixed in with adjusting to 2 prominent new teammates.
Appreciate the dive into the numbers and definitely worth keeping an eye on. But given his age and track record, barring some injury we don't know about, a lot of this will likely trend back towards expectations.
Nothing really. The problem with Kornet isn't really his problem, it's that the guys in front of him are either 37 or made of glass. I like Kornet just fine as the 3rd center, but he's more likely than most 3rd centers to be called on to do more, potentially when the games really count. For that reason, it's a position the Celtics should look to upgrade before the playoffs, over either an additional ball-handler or wing (even if the latter is more likely to break into the top 8).
It may not be possible because almost anyone better than Luke is going to want to play more minutes than a healthy Celtics team can probably offer, but it's not at all unreasonable to see this as the clearest position for improvement.
But they’ve been so good with him on the court with Tatum the last two years, and it’s a pretty big sample size (over 1,000 possessions). So when he’s been called upon to do more, he has. I’m fine adding more talent to this team, whether it’s a guard, wing, or big. I just don’t see many realistic options that would be better than Kornet.
Luke/Tatum pairing this season: +10.2 net
Luke/Tatum pairing last season: +12.7 net
Kristaps is not made of glass. I'd also be perfectly fine with Kornet playing backup big minutes in the playoffs if it came to it. I'd much rather upgrade Pritchard. the non Tatum lineups need some creation, which is not a Pritchard strength. and he's playing more minutes than Kornet.
That's fair, especially the bolded. When healthy our rotation is incredibly versatile, to the point where the Pritchard minutes can be replaced by literally anyone that plays better.
Maybe glass is too harsh, but not even counting the full year lost to his torn ACL, he's averaged just 53 games per season since 2018. He's already had a couple of different leg injuries since being traded (calf strain, plantar fasciitis). Let's just say he's less reliable than the average starting center (and his backup is the 6th oldest player in the league), so having a useful 3rd center we can count on in the playoffs is more important for Boston than most teams.
Weren't you the guy who decided to die on the "Romeo Langford is a top-8 rotation player" hill? He was waived by the Jazz in October and is apparently now playing for the Salt Lake City Stars. He's averaging 10 points a game in December and had 25 last night in a win over the Santa Cruz Warriors. Did you mean top-8 rotation player in the g-league?
I'm just f*cking with you. I got a kick out of how convinced you were at the time. I apologize, I see how that post could be perceived as trolling you.
Hahaha I'm at the freakin airport and my flight it full. It won't take much to tilt me today. Yes I def underestimated what was between the ears of Romeo. Such wasted physical skills.
Euclis20, Boston fans. Boston fans, Euclis20.
It's still fucking nonsense. He got a little lucky that he peaked before the all-NBA vote was taken and a bunch of other guys were injured or playing poorly at the time. There's no evidence that he "took his foot off the gas".
In an unrelated point, I do not wish that you find yourself in the back in the middle, between two former Dallas Cowboys linemen.
Oh he got lucky that last years career highs are now down across the board this year. Funny how that "fucking nonsense" works.
Does that mean Tatum has taken his foot off the gas too? Last years career highs are now down across the board.
Tatum is actually up in several while blowing away his previous years shooting numbers from the field.
Is it too late to change my wish?
You can claim that every contract year player has an identical mindset, but that doesn't make it true.
Saying that Jaylen has "taken his foot of the gas" without acknowledging that the C's upgraded offense in two starters is just silly. He, like everyone else on the team, is still figuring out how to best contribute. It's one thing to say his counting stats are down, but anyone saying his effort level is down just hasn't been watching the C's play (or already has a bias against JB).
I think it stands to reason that Tatum's numbers would be more sticky than Jaylen's with the addition of KP and Jrue right? Tatum is clearly the #1 option. There's less sacrifice there and less thinking about what to do. Jaylen's opportunities are more challenged with KP and Jrue and he has to work harder to "fit in".
I think the idea that Jaylen is now less motivated is a big nothing burger
The biggest difference in Brown's game seems to be the shooting % being down across the board. I don't know what to attribute it to beyond variance. Maybe last season was just a career year for his midrange shooting and this is the guy he is -- essentially a high volume, league average TS% player.
Tatum is what?
Tatum is basically the same from 3 (.356 this year, to .350 last year), he's been much better from 2, but he's been worse from the free throw line.
Meanwhile, his rebounding is down, his points are down, his assists are down, his steals are even, his blocks are down, and his turnovers and turnover % are career highs, by a LOT, on slightly less usage (32.7 to 30.0).
Brown's been worse from the field, better from 3 and worse from the free throw line.
His rebounding is down, his points are down, and his assists are down. Of course, everyone around here is consistently ignoring the other end of the court, where Jaylen has been pretty great all season long, his steals are up, his blocks are up, his turnovers are at almost career lows (even with being on pace for the highest offensive fouls in his career), his turnover rate is down, also on slightly less usage (31.4 to 28.6).
The reason Jaylen's rebounding is so much lower is because unlike Tatum, Brown is spending his time on the defensive end running around the circle guarding the opposing team's fastest players night in and night out, while Tatum hangs around guarding guys in the corner grabbing boards off the back end of the rim. Tatum's offensive rebounding % has dropped from 3.2 to 2.1 this season (Jaylen is at 2.0). And when Tatum comes off the floor, he's usually replaced by Al, leaving Brown out there with KP and Al. Tatum almost never plays with 2 bigs.
This thread should be "take"n out back and shot.
To my eye test, Brown is having his best defensive season (maybe a few slow jogs back for my liking).
A quarter into the season (& I believe he will pick it up when it matters) BUT the guy that has taken his foot off the defensive pedal is actually Tatum.
A quarter into the season (& I believe he will pick it up when it matters) BUT the guy that has taken his foot off the defensive pedal is actually Tatum.
The Jaylen/Tatum stuff is so ridiculous, even here. It always goes the same way. Someone says something negative about Jaylen, then there is a response where a poster defends Jaylen and says negative stuff about Tatum, and so on and so on.
Jaylen’s numbers this year are just about his shot struggling, not that he got a contract. If you believe his three ball and deep two’s rebound, he will be fine. If you think that the statistical trend with those shots are real, you’re probably a little more concerned.
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Its really hard to get to worked up about an individual's numbers given that this team has won in excess of 75% of the games they have played thus far. Production, such as it is at this point in the season, is definitely worth discussing.
Where the handwringers lose me is showing the negative impact. Why is so hard to show harm when discussing a problem? If Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum aren't doing things well that's one thing. But if it isn't hurting the team, are we really supposed to care? I get negative trends can impact team performance but maybe those guys are doing something different as part of the team concept that results in more wins. Maybe not.
How many wins has it cost the team seems like a fair question rather than listening to someone tell us that "X is happening and though its not showing up in the results, just you wait!". Show us the cost. Should this team be 21-0? 20-1? Have the Jays cost them more than a win thus far? How many wins has Mazzulla left on the table and why should we care about them?
Please make me care.
Where the handwringers lose me is showing the negative impact. Why is so hard to show harm when discussing a problem? If Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum aren't doing things well that's one thing. But if it isn't hurting the team, are we really supposed to care? I get negative trends can impact team performance but maybe those guys are doing something different as part of the team concept that results in more wins. Maybe not.
How many wins has it cost the team seems like a fair question rather than listening to someone tell us that "X is happening and though its not showing up in the results, just you wait!". Show us the cost. Should this team be 21-0? 20-1? Have the Jays cost them more than a win thus far? How many wins has Mazzulla left on the table and why should we care about them?
Please make me care.
I generally agree with you, but there's no harm in pointing out things that can improve. This team has been great so far, but if they want a banner I think they still need to step it up (as does every other team in the League).