Hot Stove Wishes

[ehaz]

Just to clarify - I am not advocating for trading Buchholz.  However, he's absolutely enigmatic and may or may not be overvalued by certain teams.  I was just saying it makes sense to explore the possibility of some GM betting on Clay's health rather than against it and offering a package intended for a 180+ inning ace. 

 

[ericz2324]

I think an interesting discussion (maybe for another thread?) is what value Buchholz may provide moving forward.  Let's assume two things:
 
(1) That he can only give, at most, about 138 innings a year, and 
(2) He puts up approximately this line:  3.15 era, 1.22 whip, 6.6 k/9, 135 era+ (which is what his averages over the last 4 years have come to).
 
According to b-ref, these last 4 years he's been worth an average of 3.2 WAR a season, over these 138 innings per year.  That's worth about $15+ million per year, if we go by the standard $5 million per WAR.  
 
So if we assume that Clay is only going to give the Sox 138 innings, but they'll be of this exceptional quality, how to get another 75-80 innings out of his slot?  They'd need another SP to fill those innings.  If that other pitcher contributed even a slightly below replacement level performance, it would mean that that spot in the rotation would *still* be pretty good.
 
In other words, it's worth having Clay in the rotation even if he only gives you 138 innings, because those innings are so good.

Clay is such an interesting case. He is probably the toughest player on the team to predict going forward. For a pitcher as old as he is that we still talk about his upside probably isn't a great sign. That said, he still has the potential to be an ace. It remains to be seen if he will ever reached that goal over the course of multiple seasons. I still believe he's a total time bomb though. His performance in the playoffs was nothing short of admirable, however, so many red flags went up with every passing start. Diminished velocity is never a good sign. I'd be very uncomfortable discussing a multi year contract with clay anytime soon.

I absolutely would not trade him for trumbo. All the reasons why have been stated. Frankly, trumbo just isn't a player who fits anywhere on our team.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I think Trumbo is a bad choice to fill 1B. I'd rather Nap on a 1-3 year deal than send assets to LAA for Trumbo.
 
But what do you guys think about Bourjos? And what do you think the Angels would want for him? He's arbitration eligible this offseason for the first time, projected to make just over $1M. I think he'd make an excellent 4th OF, able to come in and play plus defense in the OF, play against lefties if JBJ isn't completely ready, and provide an excellent late-inning pinch run option. 
 
The Angels are reported to want young, controllable pitching in a deal for either Trumbo or Bourjos.  Would the team be willing to give up an arm like Doubront for him? I think that's asking a bit much. I don't think they'd be interested in a discounted Peavy or Dempster (maybe they'd be interested in Peavy). Does a Webster or Workman alone have enough prospect shine left on them to make the Angels bite? Do we even want to give up an arm like that for a speed/defense OF when we've got JBJ penciled in as an everyday guy and the option of just going out and paying for a Chris Young type to fill the 4th OF role?  
 
I'm not sure we're a great fit as a trading partner, but I think he could be a solid contributor. One other option would be to offer WMB for him if Drew returns, but I think that's unlikely and Drew will get a multi-year deal elsewhere.

 

[m0ckduck]

I wonder if we had lost 93 games this past year instead of two years ago, how many times 'Trade for David Price at all costs!!' would have come up by this point in the thread.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think Trumbo is a bad choice to fill 1B. I'd rather Nap on a 1-3 year deal than send assets to LAA for Trumbo.
 
But what do you guys think about Bourjos? And what do you think the Angels would want for him? He's arbitration eligible this offseason for the first time, projected to make just over $1M. I think he'd make an excellent 4th OF, able to come in and play plus defense in the OF, play against lefties if JBJ isn't completely ready, and provide an excellent late-inning pinch run option. 
 
The Angels are reported to want young, controllable pitching in a deal for either Trumbo or Bourjos.  Would the team be willing to give up an arm like Doubront for him? I think that's asking a bit much. I don't think they'd be interested in a discounted Peavy or Dempster (maybe they'd be interested in Peavy). Does a Webster or Workman alone have enough prospect shine left on them to make the Angels bite? Do we even want to give up an arm like that for a speed/defense OF when we've got JBJ penciled in as an everyday guy and the option of just going out and paying for a Chris Young type to fill the 4th OF role?  
 
I'm not sure we're a great fit as a trading partner, but I think he could be a solid contributor. One other option would be to offer WMB for him if Drew returns, but I think that's unlikely and Drew will get a multi-year deal elsewhere.

 
I don't really see the team as having a need for a player like Bourjos at present.  Assuming JBJ replaces Ellsbury, the rest of their outfielders from this season are still under contract.  The only reason I can see them pursuing another 4th OF option would be if they think Gomes will be a malcontent being the weak half of the LF platoon again and has to be traded.  In that case, I can see a Chris Young type being added (competent defense, strong(er) against LHP)...Bourjos still doesn't fit that mold.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
I don't really see the team as having a need for a player like Bourjos at present.  Assuming JBJ replaces Ellsbury, the rest of their outfielders from this season are still under contract.  The only reason I can see them pursuing another 4th OF option would be if they think Gomes will be a malcontent being the weak half of the LF platoon again and has to be traded.  In that case, I can see a Chris Young type being added (competent defense, strong(er) against LHP)...Bourjos still doesn't fit that mold.

 
Given how this year worked out, I'd have a hard time believing Gomes would be a malcontent.  He seems like a guy that just wants to win, even if it means his role is somewhat reduced.  He did, after all, play in some of the biggest moments of the post season.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Counting on the performances of retained players to be the same as the year before is a common fallacy on this board. It lead to the 100 win predictions when "all we do is replace Lackey" two years ago.

It really didn't.

In an unrelated note...

Trading Buchholz is silly.

Trading Middlebrooks for Bourjos gives us two center fielders and no third baseman.

The agenda here is really simple.

Try to resign Ellsbury because he's really good and if Bradley has to play left for two years it's not a big deal.

We need a first baseman, Napoli had fun here and is unlikely to get multi year offers anywhere so he won't cost too much.

We need a catcher. Salty, McCann, someone else. Get one.

Bullpen arms. Get some.

That's going to be a pretty decent team. Depending on who is in center and behind the plate, and the transition periods of Bogaerts and Bradley, it might even be better than last year.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Bourjos would be a good pickup if we really just wanted a pure 4th OF, but the way the roster is made up, we don't really have room for that unless we ditch one of Gomes, Nava or Carp.
 
Even assuming there's a fit there, it would make no sense to give up anybody with as much potential as a Webster or a Workman to upgrade your bench. Alex Wilson, maybe.

 

[ivanvamp]

It really didn't.

In an unrelated note...

Trading Buchholz is silly.

Trading Middlebrooks for Bourjos gives us two center fielders and no third baseman.

The agenda here is really simple.

Try to resign Ellsbury because he's really good and if Bradley has to play left for two years it's not a big deal.

We need a first baseman, Napoli had fun here and is unlikely to get multi year offers anywhere so he won't cost too much.

We need a catcher. Salty, McCann, someone else. Get one.

Bullpen arms. Get some.

That's going to be a pretty decent team. Depending on who is in center and behind the plate, and the transition periods of Bogaerts and Bradley, it might even be better than last year.

 
I think a full season of Bogaerts will help immensely.  I would like to keep Jacoby, but I don't think that'll happen given what the cost will likely be, so that's a lot of WAR to make up.  Napoli makes sense.  Salty/McCann makes sense.  I'd maybe even prefer Salty on a 3-year deal at a higher AAV because it'll give Swihart or Vazquez time to be MLB-ready.  
 
As for the bullpen, I'm fine with:  Uehara, Tazawa, Workman, Breslow, Miller, and Bailey/Wilson/Britton.

 

[nvalvo]

 
I think a full season of Bogaerts will help immensely.  I would like to keep Jacoby, but I don't think that'll happen given what the cost will likely be, so that's a lot of WAR to make up.  Napoli makes sense.  Salty/McCann makes sense.  I'd maybe even prefer Salty on a 3-year deal at a higher AAV because it'll give Swihart or Vazquez time to be MLB-ready.  
 
As for the bullpen, I'm fine with:  Uehara, Tazawa, Workman, Breslow, Miller, and Bailey/Wilson/Britton.

 
I'd prefer to put Workman back on the SP track, because I think he has 3-4 starter potential. He'd be the first in line for spot starts, etc. I would therefore like to see them give a one-year deal to a RHRP for the late innings, or else call up RDLR for that spot. 

 

[Rasputin]

 
I think a full season of Bogaerts will help immensely.  I would like to keep Jacoby, but I don't think that'll happen given what the cost will likely be, so that's a lot of WAR to make up.  Napoli makes sense.  Salty/McCann makes sense.  I'd maybe even prefer Salty on a 3-year deal at a higher AAV because it'll give Swihart or Vazquez time to be MLB-ready.  
 
As for the bullpen, I'm fine with:  Uehara, Tazawa, Workman, Breslow, Miller, and Bailey/Wilson/Britton.

 
 

 
I'd prefer to put Workman back on the SP track, because I think he has 3-4 starter potential. He'd be the first in line for spot starts, etc. I would therefore like to see them give a one-year deal to a RHRP for the late innings, or else call up RDLR for that spot. 

 
 
I go back and forth on Workman.
I think Bogaerts will help immensely. I think he showed a level of maturity that suggests he'll make the transition relatively easily, but he's still only 21 and he's going to have some kind of transition. 
 
Also, on RDLR, he really has to get a little more command before he can really do anything at the major league level.

 

[plucy]

I would start the overhaul of the corner OF spots by obtaining a young OF with CF skills who could cover RF and backup CF. I'm not sure of the option situations, but players such as Ozuna and Marisnick(MIA), Pollock and Eaton (AZ), who could shuttle for a year and then merge into the OF mix in 15 (or 14 if an injury occurs ). It's an underrepresented area of future development, with only Brentz and Hassan, both of whom with limitations on both sides of the ball. As Drew and Victorino showed, + D may outweigh offense in RF.

The cost would be young pitching near MLB ready ( or a deal with MIA around WMB perhaps).

Edit: can't rely on Kalish either.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
I'd prefer to put Workman back on the SP track, because I think he has 3-4 starter potential. He'd be the first in line for spot starts, etc. I would therefore like to see them give a one-year deal to a RHRP for the late innings, or else call up RDLR for that spot. 

 
Many good MLB SP spend a year or two in the bullpen when they first get to the majors.  Workman can spend 2014 in the bullpen and then transition to the rotation for 2015.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

I would start the overhaul of the corner OF spots by obtaining a young OF with CF skills who could cover RF and backup CF. I'm not sure of the option situations, but players such as Ozuna and Marisnick(MIA), Pollock and Eaton (AZ), who could shuttle for a year and then merge into the OF mix in 15 (or 14 if an injury occurs ). It's an underrepresented area of future development, with only Brentz and Hassan, both of whom with limitations on both sides of the ball. As Drew and Victorino showed, + D may outweigh offense in RF.

The cost would be young pitching near MLB ready ( or a deal with MIA around WMB perhaps).

Edit: can't rely on Kalish either.

While corner OF may be an area of need in the longer term, I don't really see the logic for dealing some of our good near MLB-ready pitchers or our starting third baseman for a 4th or 5th OF. Even if the Red Sox fail to resign Ellsbury, I am happy with the OF situation going into 2014, and would much rather get a guy who only costs money like Chris Young for depth purposes than give up young talent for a guy who may well be no better than Young in the short term. (Of course, if the deal is too good to pass up (like, you're getting someone significantly better than any of the OFs you suggest, and/or the cost is minimal), fine.)

 

[Rovin Romine]

I would start the overhaul of the corner OF spots by obtaining a young OF with CF skills who could cover RF and backup CF. I'm not sure of the option situations, but players such as Ozuna and Marisnick(MIA), Pollock and Eaton (AZ), who could shuttle for a year and then merge into the OF mix in 15 (or 14 if an injury occurs ). It's an underrepresented area of future development, with only Brentz and Hassan, both of whom with limitations on both sides of the ball. As Drew and Victorino showed, + D may outweigh offense in RF.

The cost would be young pitching near MLB ready ( or a deal with MIA around WMB perhaps).

Edit: can't rely on Kalish either.

 
Isn't this basically JBJ?
 
We also have Gomes and Nava on the roster. 

 

[benhogan]

1. Try to sign Ellsbury to a hometown discount. If that doesn't work, collect the pick and go with Bradley in CF. 
2. Hope and expect Napoli to accept 14.1MM/1yr. If not, collect pick and go with Carp at first. Let Nava continue to get reps at first. See what we have in Hassan as a possible platoon.
3. Maybe Drew accepts QO. If not, collect pick and go with Boegarts at SS and WMB at 3rd.
4. Try to sign Salty for 2-3yrs at 22MM-30MM. If not, make a 1yr deal for a vet catcher like AJ or Navarro.
5. Work out a longer term deal for Lester.
 
Don't deal Buchholz or Doubront, don't trade the farm for Stanton, don't bother with Bourjos, Workman in pen works, maybe explore a 1yr deal with Rajai Davis.
 
Give our top farm players time to mature/improve and move them up as they excel or use them as trade bait in May/June.
 
This will give the Sox tons of payroll flexibility to retain/attract players that thrive playing in Boston.  Hard to quantify this, but we all have witnessed great players (Crawford, Renteria) come to Boston an absolutely fold up like lawn chairs.

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

I generally agree with benhogan above, but I would add:
 
1) I can't see JE taking any discount, but if he does, great. Otherwise agree.  
2) I am OK with a 2 year or a 3 year deal if it contains some medical assurances for Napoli,  If Napoli does leave, sign or trade for a good RH 1b to platoon with Carp.
3) Agree
4) Agree. I have a weird inclination towards Kurt Suzuki.
5) Agree.
 
Agree on other points, but prefer C. Young to R. Davis.  

 

[Doctor G]

 
I'd prefer to put Workman back on the SP track, because I think he has 3-4 starter potential. He'd be the first in line for spot starts, etc. I would therefore like to see them give a one-year deal to a RHRP for the late innings, or else call up RDLR for that spot. 

Joe Smith might be a good fit.  

 

[foulkehampshire]

4) Agree. I have a weird inclination towards Kurt Suzuki.
 

 
Might have something to do with his lifetime .333/.367/.524 line at Fenway. 

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

 
Might have something to do with his lifetime .333/.367/.524 line at Fenway. 

 
That might explain it.  I would also add a quality bullpen arm that doesn't have the "proven closer" premium like Crain.  

 

[Saints Rest]

ANy chance that Nava could be a trade chip?  Seems like his strong year, combined with his const-controlled salary status would make him quite attractive to many low-to-mid-market teams.  
 
Perhaps he could be part of a 3-way trade, either literally or conceptually, for Stanton.  It seems to me, especially after reading Chad Finn's piece this morning, that if the Sox somehow were to get Stanton, the starting OF might look like Stanton, JBJ, Victorino (L/C/R).  In such an OF, I don't see your 4th OF getting a whole lot of run, except in filling in for injuries.  Nava would likely be wasted in such a role, and ideally, you would want an OF who is more capable of playing all 3 positions, or at least CF/RF.
 
Since Miami seems fairly well-situated for OF, maybe Nava goes to a team who needs a LF with great OBP skills, potentially returning a prospect who could either help restock the Red Sox farm after the Stanton trade purging, or bring a prospect who could be sent along to Miami to complete the Stanton trade. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm still a Stanton skeptic, but I agree that as long as Bogaerts is not involved, there's at least a possibility of a deal that wouldn't suck too much.
 
Here's a package:
 
Cecchini, Webster, Betts, Vazquez
 
a) would this get it done?
b) would it be too much to pay?
 
Obviously if the answers are (a) no and (b) yes, then there probably isn't a deal to be made.
 
I can't see including JBJ unless we sign Ellsbury....who would play CF? We could sign Young and make him the full-time CF, but then our lineup gets awfully right-handed. Of course I suppose we could go for Granderson....he'd be a cheaper (but worse) alternative to Jacoby.
 

 

[smastroyin]

I like Chad an awful lot, but it's probably worth pointing out that neither the Mariners nor Blue Jays took them up on the "all of our organizational depth for your ace" deals.  

 

[benhogan]

I'm still a Stanton skeptic, but I agree that as long as Bogaerts is not involved, there's at least a possibility of a deal that wouldn't suck too much.
 
Here's a package:
 
Cecchini, Webster, Betts, Vazquez
 
a) would this get it done?
b) would it be too much to pay?
 
Obviously if the answers are (a) no and (b) yes, then there probably isn't a deal to be made.
 
I can't see including JBJ unless we sign Ellsbury....who would play CF? We could sign Young and make him the full-time CF, but then our lineup gets awfully right-handed. Of course I suppose we could go for Granderson....he'd be a cheaper (but worse) alternative to Jacoby.
 

I don't think Florida goes for it, they have to get the Sox #1 prospect or they look like complete jack asses. Plus I don't like it for the Sox.
 
Chad Finn had a Stanton LF, JBJ CF, Vic RF.
 
What would be the cost of signing Stanton long term? you're not just going to want him for his arb years.
 
I'm not sure a Nava/Gomes platoon needs to be messed with, we got great production out of LF this season.

 

[chawson]

I don't think I realized how unique and wonderful a spot we're in. I can see some arguments for sitting tight this offseason (and agree in principle), but we're not really used to the luxuries of the Sox's position: fresh off a WS win, a ton of payroll flexibility, and the best farm system in baseball. It'd be terrible to stall or spoil the careers of some of these young, major league-ready players. Many of them will be ready to break in this year, and a lot of them don't have spots. I think you have to have an active offseason. And I think you go for the big fish.
 
The tricky part is that though you want to, you can't plan around Ellsbury because he'll almost surely sign too late in the game.
 
Here's what keeping Ellsbury allows you to do:
 
- Sign Chris Young to 2/$15 early in the offseason. Trade Gomes somewhere he can play everyday.
- Sign Saltalamacchia at $3/30.
- Try for Chris Capuano at 1/$5, Roy Oswalt (no longer great but incredibly unlucky last year) at 1/$5, or Scott Kazmir at 1/$10 or 2/$18.
- I'd go as high as 6/$120 to Ellsbury. His game is way more valuable in this era of baseball than it would have been, say, last decade. He's a star. 
- If you can retain Ellsbury, great. Then because the Marlins don't need outfielders, trade JBJ for a blocked prospect of roughly equal caliber, preferably a position player (Rangers' 2B Rougned Odor, Cubs' SS Javier Baez, et al.). Package that player with Swihart/Webster/Ranaudo or Swihart/Betts/Doubront to Miami for Stanton, who as a bad range/great arm LF with exceptional RH power is probably worth more to us than any other team.
- Keep Middlebrooks. If his ceiling is a cheap 2-3 win player with good defense and great power, that's totally fine for the next 4-5 years. Decide what to do with Cecchini after next year
- I'd love to trade Lester right now, but you probably can't. A 2014 rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy, and Doubront (if not traded)/Capuano/Kazmir/Oswalt works for me, with Workman, Barnes, and Ranaudo (if not traded) in the wings. Trade Dempster to an NL contender with money and pitching concerns, like the Dodgers or Reds.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

I like Chad an awful lot, but it's probably worth pointing out that neither the Mariners nor Blue Jays took them up on the "all of our organizational depth for your ace" deals.  

 
True, but I think you could very easily argue that both teams would have been better off if they had.

 

[Puffy]

Joe Smith might be a good fit.  

 
Another potential source of depth on the RHRP front might simply be to invite Hanrahan back into the fold.  I doubt he is looking at a guaranteed deal, but he seems to be a fit for this team personality wise and might be able to work his way back into a 7th or 8th inning guy on this team.

 

[smastroyin]

 
True, but I think you could very easily argue that both teams would have been better off if they had.

 
Sure, and I think you can make a pretty easy argument that JBJ, Webster, Doubront are a nearly mortal lock to give the Marlins more value than the haul they got for Miguel Cabrera (in fact I made this argument over the summer), but that doesn't mean the Marlins would be interested.

 

[Coachster]

I generally agree with benhogan above, but I would add:
 
1) I can't see JE taking any discount, but if he does, great. Otherwise agree.  
2) I am OK with a 2 year or a 3 year deal if it contains some medical assurances for Napoli,  If Napoli does leave, sign or trade for a good RH 1b to platoon with Carp.
3) Agree
4) Agree. I have a weird inclination towards Kurt Suzuki.
5) Agree.
 
Agree on other points, but prefer C. Young to R. Davis.  

I was hoping somebody would mention this, but apparently I'm alone with my convictions again.
 
benhogan has a weird inclination towards Kurt Suzuki. I have one towards Grady Sizemore. He was the best CF in the game 2007-08. He's been injured for two full years. If he had anything left in the tank, he would be a perfect for an incentive-laden contract. Stash him in Pawtucket and find if he can still play. What would be the harm?

 

[plucy]

Isn't this basically JBJ?
 
We also have Gomes and Nava on the roster.

I'd like another OF with Bradley's profile. Bradley is better than the players I referenced, but contextually, they are similar. A RHH is preferred to eventually replace Gomes in 15 (or sooner).

The issue with Gomes and Nava is defense. Neither can play CF or RF well; SSS, but neither plays LF well either, per UZR this year.

Edit: I'll give Gomes more credit, he was better than I thought in LF. I looked at UZR/150.

 

[TheYaz67]

- Try for Chris Capuano at 1/$5, Roy Oswalt (no longer great but incredibly unlucky last year) at 1/$5, or Scott Kazmir at 1/$10 or 2/$18.

 
Not sure why they would be bargain bin shopping on starting pitchers who are at best 5th starters/reclamation projects/health risks/old guys, when they have 6 starters under contract and several more hard throwing youngsters knocking on the door in AA/AAA....

 

[ji oh]

I'm still a Stanton skeptic, but I agree that as long as Bogaerts is not involved, there's at least a possibility of a deal that wouldn't suck too much.
 
Here's a package:
 
Cecchini, Webster, Betts, Vazquez
 
a) would this get it done?
b) would it be too much to pay?
 
Obviously if the answers are (a) no and (b) yes, then there probably isn't a deal to be made.
 
I can't see including JBJ unless we sign Ellsbury....who would play CF? We could sign Young and make him the full-time CF, but then our lineup gets awfully right-handed. Of course I suppose we could go for Granderson....he'd be a cheaper (but worse) alternative to Jacoby.
 

 

 
So you'd be willing to offer our #3, 7, 10 and 12 prospects?  Try 2, 3, 4, 5, 12.  Vic plays CF for two years, though you'd need a backup for RF and CF.

 

[nvalvo]

Joe Smith might be a good fit.  

 
I like that idea a lot. He's shaved his walk rate down to respectability the last few years and has put up good results. 
 

 
Not sure why they would be bargain bin shopping on starting pitchers who are at best 5th starters/reclamation projects/health risks/old guys, when they have 6 starters under contract and several more hard throwing youngsters knocking on the door in AA/AAA....

 
If we're keeping Workman in the pen, it would be useful to have a veteran SP on a minor league deal, so as to avoid rushing the kids. Those guys, by necessity, have to be bad enough to accept a minor league deal. Then you can deal Dempster — who cannot be sent to AAA — to San Francisco for, let's say, Adalberto Mejia and Ehire Adrianza. The former is a promising left-handed starter with a good K/BB ratio in A ball, and the latter is an all-glove no-power SS, who would be a useful infielder off the bench. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I like that idea a lot. He's shaved his walk rate down to respectability the last few years and has put up good results. 
 

 
If we're keeping Workman in the pen, it would be useful to have a veteran SP on a minor league deal, so as to avoid rushing the kids. Those guys, by necessity, have to be bad enough to accept a minor league deal. Then you can deal Dempster — who cannot be sent to AAA — to San Francisco for, let's say, Adalberto Mejia and Ehire Adrianza. The former is a promising left-handed starter with a good K/BB ratio in A ball, and the latter is an all-glove no-power SS, who would be a useful infielder off the bench.

Rushing the kids? I think you WANT to have the likes of Webster etal.. up for spot starts next year. The FO has to begin the process of sorting out the SP prospects .. Who to keep, who to deal. AAA can only tell you so much.

 

[benhogan]

 
- Sign Chris Young to 2/$15 early in the offseason. Trade Gomes somewhere he can play everyday.
- Sign Saltalamacchia at $3/30.
- Try for Chris Capuano at 1/$5, Roy Oswalt (no longer great but incredibly unlucky last year) at 1/$5, or Scott Kazmir at 1/$10 or 2/$18.
- I'd go as high as 6/$120 to Ellsbury. His game is way more valuable in this era of baseball than it would have been, say, last decade. He's a star. 
- If you can retain Ellsbury, great. Then because the Marlins don't need outfielders, trade JBJ for a blocked prospect of roughly equal caliber, preferably a position player (Rangers' 2B Rougned Odor, Cubs' SS Javier Baez, et al.). Package that player with Swihart/Webster/Ranaudo or Swihart/Betts/Doubront to Miami for Stanton, who as a bad range/great arm LF with exceptional RH power is probably worth more to us than any other team.
- Keep Middlebrooks. If his ceiling is a cheap 2-3 win player with good defense and great power, that's totally fine for the next 4-5 years. Decide what to do with Cecchini after next year
- I'd love to trade Lester right now, but you probably can't. A 2014 rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy, and Doubront (if not traded)/Capuano/Kazmir/Oswalt works for me, with Workman, Barnes, and Ranaudo (if not traded) in the wings. Trade Dempster to an NL contender with money and pitching concerns, like the Dodgers or Reds.

1. don't get the fascination with Chris Young, but I guess he is ok as a back up.  Dealing Gomes is a head-scratcher, he's got an off the charts attitude that is willing to come off the bench and produces when he does comes off the bench. For 5MM John can stay.
2. agree, I hope they can sign Salty 3 for $30MM, but I think its a 50/50 shot that happens. If McCann gets 6 for $100MM as rumored, then Salty could probably get 4 for 60MM
3. Capuano in the AL East- no thanks.  If you unload Dempster, I guess Oswalt and Kazmir can't hurt, but the Sox have a bunch of guys knocking on the door, would like to see what we have in the minors first.
4. I honestly feel Stanton doesn't come here unless the conversation begins with Xander + more prospects. And I wouldn't deal Xander, unless its Jose Fernandez (which isn't happening)
5. agree, give WMB another shot next year, no reason to dump him
 
6. deal Lester? really? why on earth do you deal Lester? Lester is back with Farrell, its all good, he is our #1, our horse, and an absolute post season stud.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

I don't think I realized how unique and wonderful a spot we're in. I can see some arguments for sitting tight this offseason (and agree in principle), but we're not really used to the luxuries of the Sox's position: fresh off a WS win, a ton of payroll flexibility, and the best farm system in baseball. It'd be terrible to stall or spoil the careers of some of these young, major league-ready players. Many of them will be ready to break in this year, and a lot of them don't have spots. I think you have to have an active offseason. And I think you go for the big fish.
 
The tricky part is that though you want to, you can't plan around Ellsbury because he'll almost surely sign too late in the game.
 
Here's what keeping Ellsbury allows you to do:
 
- Sign Chris Young to 2/$15 early in the offseason. Trade Gomes somewhere he can play everyday.
- Sign Saltalamacchia at $3/30.
- Try for Chris Capuano at 1/$5, Roy Oswalt (no longer great but incredibly unlucky last year) at 1/$5, or Scott Kazmir at 1/$10 or 2/$18.
- I'd go as high as 6/$120 to Ellsbury. His game is way more valuable in this era of baseball than it would have been, say, last decade. He's a star. 
- If you can retain Ellsbury, great. Then because the Marlins don't need outfielders, trade JBJ for a blocked prospect of roughly equal caliber, preferably a position player (Rangers' 2B Rougned Odor, Cubs' SS Javier Baez, et al.). Package that player with Swihart/Webster/Ranaudo or Swihart/Betts/Doubront to Miami for Stanton, who as a bad range/great arm LF with exceptional RH power is probably worth more to us than any other team.
- Keep Middlebrooks. If his ceiling is a cheap 2-3 win player with good defense and great power, that's totally fine for the next 4-5 years. Decide what to do with Cecchini after next year
- I'd love to trade Lester right now, but you probably can't. A 2014 rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy, and Doubront (if not traded)/Capuano/Kazmir/Oswalt works for me, with Workman, Barnes, and Ranaudo (if not traded) in the wings. Trade Dempster to an NL contender with money and pitching concerns, like the Dodgers or Reds.

I don't see how resigning Ellsbury "allows you to do" any of what you outlined.
 
I like the idea of signing Young (terrific 4th OF, though he may well get a chance to start for better money elsewhere) but only if they don't retain Ellsbury. Also, Gomes is not an everyday player. Period. Dude's a short-side platoon OF who plays shitty defense, and obviously a good clubhouse guy. Intangibles aside, Nava is the more valuable commodity, and the guy you have to think about moving in the unlikely event you end up signing Chris Young and Jacoby Ellsbury--Nava hits RHP very well, a bit better defensively, and has the more favorable contract situation. What exactly do you think Gomes would fetch, if I may ask?
 
I'm with you on Salty, though I think he'll be offered more by other teams.
 
I guess I'm vaguely OK with adding budget SP depth, but I bet all of the guys you mention (possibly except Oswalt, who seems cooked) should get better offers from teams with open rotation slots.
 
I envision the Marlins getting significantly better offers for Stanton than the ones you've suggested. Also, do you have a respected source handy that says Stanton has bad range in the outfield? I know his defensive numbers weren't good last year, but there were some injury issues.
 
I also don't get why you want to trade Lester. If you get an unbelievable offer, of course you think about it, but I wouldn't be planning on getting rid of him.

 

[Revkeith]

 
Another potential source of depth on the RHRP front might simply be to invite Hanrahan back into the fold.  I doubt he is looking at a guaranteed deal, but he seems to be a fit for this team personality wise and might be able to work his way back into a 7th or 8th inning guy on this team.

 
Read an article today where he seemed very appreciative of the support he got in Boston, and pretty welcome to coming back. If he could be had for a low price, worth a shot.

 

[benhogan]

Where is everyone seeing "rumors" of McCann getting 6/$100? Or 5/$100 that I saw in another post? Can someone cite that?

Cameron crowd sourced and came up with 4/$59.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/9845063/sources-say-new-york-yankees-go-offseason-shopping-spree
 
"McCann is the top catcher on the market and could land a deal in the range of five years and $75 million. A general manager told ESPNNewYork.com that he could see McCann receiving a contract for six years and $100 million because of his ability to transition to first base at the end of the deal."

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/9845063/sources-say-new-york-yankees-go-offseason-shopping-spree
 
"McCann is the top catcher on the market and could land a deal in the range of five years and $75 million. A general manager told ESPNNewYork.com that he could see McCann receiving a contract for six years and $100 million because of his ability to transition to first base at the end of the deal."

So he'll get more money because he'll be forced to move to a less demanding position and be less valuable .. OK .......

 

[JimD]

I more I think about what the Red Sox need to do, the more I believe that a lot of fans are missing the mark.  There seems to be a growing belief that the Sox, having reached the summit, need to do whatever it takes to stay on top of the mountain.  They need to sign Ellsbury, or replace Salty with McCann, or whatever, because they can't afford to backslide.  I believe that this thinking is probably wrong.
 
Ben Cherington and the baseball operations staff had a plan going into 2013.  This year was supposed to be a respectable bridge to the next great Sox team, while helping fans get past the team's embarrassing pratfalls of 2011 and 2012.  The farm system is on the upswing again, with an excellent chance that it will produce multiple major league regulars.  Why would the goal change now?  Some have stated that they need to take advantage of the remaining Boston years of players like Ortiz and Lester at their peak, but I disagree.  The window of opportunity with the Ortiz/Pedey/Lester/Ellsbury team was taken advantage of quite nicely in 2013 - there is less need than ever to 'go for it now' with risky long-term deals for players over 30.   
 
The Red Sox are in a great position right now.  They have a ready in-house replacement for the one star they are losing.  Ticket sales will be brisk as the team brings back the heart of their world championship roster in 2014, including hugely popular stars in Papi, Pedey, Koji and X surrounded by a group of really likeable guys.  Free agent signings will be more of the same as last offseason as Ben signs value players to fill needs while waiting for the prospects to develop.  With good health and a little luck, they will compete for a playoff spot.  The farm system depth gives them the opportunity to be a player should any generational talents like Stanton suddenly become available.  In sum, I just don't see the need to take on risk by going long on years or high on dollars for Ellsbury, McCann or anyone else currently available.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

So he'll get more money because he'll be forced to move to a less demanding position and be less valuable .. OK .......

 
The more charitable interpretation is that he can hit like a first baseman, unlike a lot of catchers.

 

[Rasputin]

I more I think about what the Red Sox need to do, the more I believe that a lot of fans are missing the mark.  There seems to be a growing belief that the Sox, having reached the summit, need to do whatever it takes to stay on top of the mountain.  They need to sign Ellsbury, or replace Salty with McCann, or whatever, because they can't afford to backslide.  I believe that this thinking is probably wrong.

I mostly agree. Where I disagree is the idea that signing McCann is a move based on a desperate desire to stay on top. If you sign McCann and Bogaerts is anything like what we think he'll be like, we're going to be getting premium production from the three hardest positions to get production from.

That makes all the other positions easier to fill because all you're looking for is supporting actors. Get league average production from the other positions, decent pitching, and we have a chance to own this division for the next three or four years if not longer.

 

[smastroyin]

One thing I would add to that is getting Pedroia to buy into a "don't slide into first base" mantra.

 

[ji oh]

All of these ideas about signing a CF for the major league roster (except those that mention trading Carp) are ignoring the fact that a fifth OF will not fit on this team.  What I'd like to hear is an idea of who would be a good AAA CF, the backup-backup who comes up now and then the way JBJ did last year.

 

[smastroyin]

We'll have to wait to see how the Rule 5 draft goes (and as yet the Sox haven't even set their roster completely), but I imagine in a perfect world, that guy would be the combination of Kalish and Juan Carlos Linares.  Kalish since he was on injured reserve I don't think used his last option, so unless they remove him from the 40 man they should be able to keep him around.  Linares would have to be added to the 40 man to protect him from the rule 5.  Although they may just bet that he won't be drafted, especially since they already have 8 OF on the 40 man even if they don't sign Ellsbury or a replacement:
 
JBJ, Carp, Castellanos, Gomes, Hassan, Kalish, Nava, Victorino. 
 
Considering they only have 4 infielders on the 40 man:
 
Bogaerts, Holt, Pedroia, Middlebrooks
 
I doubt they will want to add more OF.  
 
We could probably have a whole thread on the 40 man.  It's odd right now, they have 4 catchers even without Salty or McCann.
 
One product of the deep depth idea is that major league roster rules do not allow you to plan for a continual string of deep depth.  The Red Sox are going to have some decisions to make regarding guys like Castellanos, Butler, and Hassan.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
The more charitable interpretation is that he can hit like a first baseman, unlike a lot of catchers.

 
What I'd be wary of is the assumption that, by the time he can no longer catch, he will still be able to hit like a first baseman.

 

[KillerBs]

All of these ideas about signing a CF for the major league roster (except those that mention trading Carp) are ignoring the fact that a fifth OF will not fit on this team.  What I'd like to hear is an idea of who would be a good AAA CF, the backup-backup who comes up now and then the way JBJ did last year.

 Right, assuming Napoli re-signs, and 12 pitchers, there is only room for a UI, not a 5th OFer.
 
Thinking about it, dealing Carp (or Nava if you think Carp can play LF) does  make sense in terms of 25 man roster construction. With a 4 man bench, it is less than ideal to carry 2 lefty 1b/lf.
 
I wonder if Carp could fetch a plus back up infielder (preferably a lefty (who is better than Holt)) or youngish CF/RF (better than Chris Young) who could spell Bradley and Victorino.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

I more I think about what the Red Sox need to do, the more I believe that a lot of fans are missing the mark.  There seems to be a growing belief that the Sox, having reached the summit, need to do whatever it takes to stay on top of the mountain.  They need to sign Ellsbury, or replace Salty with McCann, or whatever, because they can't afford to backslide.  I believe that this thinking is probably wrong.
 

 
I love this post because it broke the "so what if we don't win it all next year" barrier. I'm also fine using 2014 to see what we've got in JBJ, WMB, X at short, Carp at 1B. Although I'd like to see Nap back on a two-year, of all the FAs. Plus, if that's all we did in regard to QO'd free agents, we'd be sitting on three "first round equivalent" picks this season roughly around Nos. 20-33 or so. Fatten the farm.
 
Only caveat, and this may dovetail with Ras' inclination to take a hard look at McCann, is that Ben needs to have an eye on replacing Papi's bat eventually.

 

[ivanvamp]

Finn's article about the Sox potentially (and semi-realistically) going after Stanton has got me re-thinking my wish list for this offseason.  I'll update it:
 
1.  Offer Ellsbury a 5/90 deal - enough so that it's clear they are serious (that's $18 million a year), but I don't think it's enough to retain him.  So I figure we're moving on from Jacoby.  Thanks for the two rings, JE.  Let JBJ take over the starting CF role.
 
2.  Go after Tanaka hard.  Ellsbury's money can be used for this purpose.  From what I can tell (just reading reports like the rest of you guys), he's very, very good.  So add him.
 
3.  Sign Napoli to 2/25 to play 1b.  I'll be happy with 20-25 hr, 80-100 rbi, and GG caliber defense again.
 
4.  Let Drew go, play X and WMB on the left side of the IF.  I want to see these young guys play regularly.
 
5.  Now the big one:  Trade a combination of 5 of these guys:  JBJ (and if they take him, then the Sox need to figure out CF again…but I'm ok with this), Ranaudo, Webster, DLR, Vazquez, Owens, Barnes, Lavarnway, Betts, Marrero, or Brentz.  I have no idea which of these guys Florida would prefer, but I'm ok with dealing 5 of them for Stanton.  I might be crazy, because I like all of these guys.  But again, you wouldn't be trading for a 31-year old veteran.  Stanton is just 23 and has a career ops+ of 138.  We all know what he is and what his potential is.  Mammoth.  And because the Sox' farm system is so stacked right now, dealing 5 of these guys STILL leaves you with a lot of help in the minor leagues.  The farm system wouldn't be "gutted".  It would be thinner, but not "gutted".
 
6.  Trade Dempster for a prospect.  Eat half or 2/3 of his salary to do it - just get back a useful prospect.
 
7.  Trade Peavy for a prospect.  Eat half or 2/3 of his salary to do it - just get back a useful prospect.  So between Peavy and Dempster, you've regained 2 of the 5 prospects you lost, even though they won't be as high a caliber as what you gave away.
 
8.  Sign Salty to a 3/30 deal.  The Sox would be keeping Swihart or Vazquez, and Salty/Ross provide the bridge to that point.  
 
9.  Sign Chris Young - you guys sold me on that idea.  
 
10. Sign a veteran backup IF.
 
That leaves you with essentially this:
 
C - Salty
1b - Napoli
2b - Pedroia
3b - Middlebrooks
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Stanton
CF - JBJ or Young if JBJ goes to the Marlins
RF - Victorino
DH - Ortiz
Bench - Ross, Nava, Carp, Gomes, veteran IF  
 
SP - Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, Tanaka
RP - Workman, Miller, Britton, Tazawa, Breslow, Uehara
 
Lineup:
RF Victorino
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
LF Stanton
1b Napoli
SS Bogaerts
C Saltalamacchia
3b Middlebrooks
CF Bradley/Young
 
That's a hell of a lineup - speed, power.  And the rotation and pen are both excellent.  And while their farm system wouldn't be as deep (obviously), it would still have a lot of bullets left.

 

[benhogan]

All of these ideas about signing a CF for the major league roster (except those that mention trading Carp) are ignoring the fact that a fifth OF will not fit on this team.  What I'd like to hear is an idea of who would be a good AAA CF, the backup-backup who comes up now and then the way JBJ did last year.

Maybe sign Q. Berry to a minor league deal, say 750K, when rosters expand he becomes a weapon again.